How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[c3k]

8 hours ago, kraze said:

Except right now the message is - if you are a despot and have a nuke - you can invade, occupy, do horrible war crimes in a whatever non-nuclear (protected) country you wish.

Better yet - if you also have oil and gas - other countries will keep supporting your warcrimes with hard cash

^^^

Regarding Xi, and China's renewed push for more nukes.  

What Putin's invasion of Russia has shown is the need for the West to put their troops in friendly territory to show commitment and resolve. Would Putin have green-lighted the invasion if there were several NATO brigades doing "training and familiarization" in eastern Ukriane?  Think about setting several USMC battalions in Taiwan on a "friendship tour".

The post-invasion rush of PGMs to Ukraine should also be a lesson. To protect Taiwain, a PRE-invasion flood of PGMs would be appropriate.

This would be a strategic counter to the PRC's expansionism in the South China Sea.

 

Back to Ukraine:

The 100-200k reserves that are expected to start arriving on the battlefield soon...how will they be integrated into the fight? Will they plus-up the existing formations, or get plugged in directly (and have to learn the lessons endemic to all green units when first in the line)?

How many NLAWs/Javelines/Drones are left for Ukraine to use? Are they sufficient to beef up the entire east front, or will they be pushed to proven units? Will they use the attritional approach, maneuver, or a combination?

I agree that Russia has lost their strategic aims, but there's still a LOT of fight left in this war.

[asurob]

10 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

I hope I am wrong wars used to be long term. Wars used to be normal, easily lasting a human lifetime. 

They use to be face to face too.  The capacity we have for killing each other in mass and quickly has changed the nature of war completely.  No my friend, you are wrong.  This war will be over by the summer...if not sooner.

[danfrodo]

7 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Can't help it, but I like the bugger.

I thought this guy was a clown.  But he's shown more guts than many of the 'respectable' leaders.  And he's shown leadership -- he didn't wait around for focus groups and polls to tell him to help Ukraine, he started pouring in aid.  So hats off to the bugger for proving me wrong! 

[danfrodo]

6 hours ago, Maquisard manqué said:

Seems a bit of a stretch tbh. Don’t think that’s the right flight path for anything US bound. They normally head NW on the shortest path over the globe. I think SW France, or anywhere in France, is too far south to be anywhere near a flight path from Poland to US.

oh great, now we have one of those 'round earth' people on the forum.  It's obviously flat and the sun goes around.  I know this because it was clearly demonstrated by a cartoon video on youtube, so it must be true. 

But seriously, I do wonder if the level of deliveries to UKR has stepped up recently.  Those reservists being trained probably need just about everything to come in from the outside world.

[Maquisard manqué]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

oh great, now we have one of those 'round earth' people on the forum.  It's obviously flat and the sun goes around.  I know this because it was clearly demonstrated by a cartoon video on youtube, so it must be true. 

But seriously, I do wonder if the level of deliveries to UKR has stepped up recently.  Those reservists being trained probably need just about everything to come in from the outside world.

Wot? Obvs it’s round! It’s a disc - with greenwich in the centre. You didn’t think it was a square did you? Numpty.

[Erwin]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm quite satisfied with my track record of calling this correctly so far, so I think I've got a pretty good handle on where this is headed.

On February 26, Battlefront posted:  "I expect this war will be decided by tomorrow at the latest."

It's wonderful to have these discussion with you and everyone else.  But, the evidence seems to point towards a long-lasting stalemate.  Fortunately, this is not an abstract academic discussion, so we should know more RL results by May.

A couple of other points.  It seems that in addition to "fighting to the last Ukrainian", the west's strategy is also to have Russia use up its stock of ATGM's and smart weapons which are the primary threat to tanks.  It's unclear how the Ukrainian tanks are being destroyed.  However, the tanks being supplied to Ukraine may be to replace ones killed by ATGM's and smart munitions rather than Russian tanks.

It is highly significant that we are all worrying about a shortage of the electronics/chips that make these advanced weapons work.  It's highly probable that the west has a much larger stock than Russia (and perhaps including China as well).  If we are running out of these chips then Russia is running out faster and will not be able to replace their smart weapons, while the west still retains large stocks.  This technology "attrition" works for us and may be the greatest advantage we have.  The only place Russia can get chips resupplied from is China.  That puts China in an "interesting" position.

However, while those tech stocks are hard to replace, it bodes well for the (near) future of the Baltics and Poland etc. as Russia will be deterred from aggressive behaviour if it has limited ATGM's and smart weapons.  While we cannot be sanguine for the future of Ukraine, it could well result in some reassurance/security for other eastern European nations.  At least until the world economies get back to normal.  

 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

How will Russia attack Ukraine's new front lines?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61023869

What do you make of this, Steve@ or anyone else? Just curious.

 

It was written for second graders. When they start by explaining what artillery is, badly, you aren't going to learn much.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Ahah, thanks, you make me blush ) I would be a hero, if did this from Chernihiv or Kharkiv, but Kyiv was relatively safe place, despite heavy sounds of artillety and MLRS and sometime missiles booms in the sky 

Already out of likes, So I will just say thank you Haiduk. Glory to Ukraine!

[Aragorn2002]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It was written for second graders. When they start by explaining what artillery is, badly, you aren't going to learn much.

Yes, that didn't escape my attention, but the gist of this article is that there's a real danger of encirclement and the concentration of Russian artillery will be the decisive factor, which doesn't sound like a bad analysis to me. Personally I think the war in the East will be a lot harder than that around Kiev, or perhaps even Mariopol. Hence my question.

Edited April 10, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Aragorn2002]

35 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I thought this guy was a clown.  But he's shown more guts than many of the 'respectable' leaders.  And he's shown leadership -- he didn't wait around for focus groups and polls to tell him to help Ukraine, he started pouring in aid.  So hats off to the bugger for proving me wrong! 

[chrisl]

6 hours ago, Desertor said:

Well, maybe they aren’t coming from Poland then, but there is nowhere to land in this direction other than North America.

Have you checked with ADSBExchange.com?  FR24 and Flightaware both allow operators to pay to stay off the display or not be identified in lookup.  ADSBExchange doesn't have the fancy features or data history, but does show everything that has a transponder on and often identifies the aircraft type, even if it doesn't show a callsign.  They even have a mode (the "U" button) that only shows "interesting" aircraft.

 

14 minutes ago, Erwin said:

It is highly significant that we are all worrying about a shortage of the electronics/chips that make these advanced weapons work.  It's highly probable that the west has a much larger stock than Russia (and perhaps including China as well).  If we are running out of these chips then Russia is running out faster and will not be able to replace their smart weapons, while the west still retains large stocks.  This technology "attrition" works for us and may be the greatest advantage we have.  The only place Russia can get chips resupplied from is China.  That puts China in an "interesting" position.

If the chips are made using US export controlled technology, then the machines would likely be disabled remotely, and probably very quickly.  It would certainly cause some consumer electronics pain here at home for as long as a few years, but the pandemic also already started a big rush to break ground on new fabs in the US.  Intel bought real estate that would let them set up a campus in Ohio about 20x larger than their current largest campus (Hillsboro).  It won't go instantly from nothing to that big, but they're hedging in case they need to make all production domestic.  They've also started a construction on a couple new plants in AZ.

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, womble said:

Something else they mentioned that I hadn't cottoned on to before was the "ad hoc" groupings of BTGs drawn from different Brigades and Regiments into the operational area, adding internal friction to their activities, and the knock-on consequences of that being that they will continue to have to do this, since their initial approach leaves no intact next-tier-up formations from which to form new, more coherent BTG groupings. The only reason I can think of for them taking the approach to begin with was that they wanted to cherry-pick the "best" troops for their "special operation", too, so any followup BTGs are going to be drawing from the "B Team" personnel and equipment to start with.

For the last month or so the ad hoc stuff has an easier answer.  Almost all of Russia's remaining units are performing more-or-less critical national defense roles as either "peace keepers" or making sure its neighbors (especially NATO) don't think they can just drive to Moscow without a fight.  Contrary to what Russia wants people to know, most of these forces are pretty small in any one particular geographical area.  They are also likely to have a higher percentage of conscripts.

What this means is that Russia can't just pull out full units from places like South Ossetia or Azerbaijan/Armenia without creating major problems.  Er, like what happened in Azerbaijan/Armenia when they pulled out forces   Instead it seems that what Russia is doing is pulling a minimal amount from several places and together adding them up to BTGs.  Although logical from a bean counting standpoint, it is a pointless waste. 

Taking marginal quality troops with low morale and sticking them together with other marginal quality troops with low morale is not a recipe for success.  This speaks to either the stupidity of senior commanders, the desperation to get ANYBODY into the front line, or both.  Probably both.

Evidence of this was posted a few pages back where a single knocked out BTR had three Lieutenants in it.  That's dumb for a bunch of reasons, but not my point.  My point is one of the LTs had been assigned to a meteorological unit.  This just goes to show how many officers they've lost and how much a struggle it is to fill those positions.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

A Canadian volunteer currently fighting in Kherson is posting some interesting tidbits.  Piecing this together, it appears that both sides are attempting to move the lines and the Russians, as they have so far, are getting the worse result.

No statement about where this particular river crossing might have been, but it looks like there was a Kadyrov or OMAN type unit (white truck, black body armor).  BTW, although I don't speak Ukrainian I definitely can hear the sarcastic pity loud and clear

 

[Vet 0369]

18 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

If NATO insists on continuing to split hairs in how will and won't arrange for Russians to come their deservedly unhappy ends,it seems to me Western air defense, and maybe MLRS systems manned by "foriegn volunteers "are next logical step.

Ah, do you mean along the lines of the famous “American Volunteer Force (AVF),” better known as the Chinese Flying Tigers during WWII? I wonder if a unit such as that would work today?

[TheVulture]

Ukrainian protest in Kherson today

 

 

[danfrodo]

We are in an interesting time -- and remember that "may you live in interesting times" is actually a curse.  But I'm sure most of the folks here are reasonably knowledgeable in history and know the cardinal rule for history: "don't read history backwards", meaning most folks look at history and knowing the outcome look at how everyone and everything was driving toward that outcome.  but that's not reality -- the players in real events are in the dark as to what will actually happen, they are all gambling all the time.  And here we are with pretty good information, but still we are in the dark as to what will happen next.

Sometimes there are very nonlinear tripping points, like Midway.  The US didn't know it was going to win at Midway -- a few unlucky breaks and it would've been all the US carriers burning, but it had good odds due to intel and surprise.  But in one day the Japanese Pacific fleet was dealt a blow from which it could not and did not recover.

Every day, all day, Putin is plotting how he can turn feces into chocolate.  We are pretty sure he can't win big w conventional offensives, maybe he's trying to just hold on to Donbas and the landbridge.  But what does he think?  How far will he go?  How delusional is he (if at all)?   If he believes that the linear (conventional) paths are all blocked, what will he do? 

I do not like this darkness. 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

You are very welcome.  However the real hero we have had on this thread and deserves the thanks is @Haiduk.  He stayed in country, scoured Ukraine social media, and translated from day 1.  Without that contribution, along with all the others who have been scanning open source, we would have been blind on all this.

I agree!!

You guys who feel you're getting a lot out of this thread aren't the only ones.  I know that I definitely am!  Not only is this a great place to get a steady flow of good information, it is also a place we can talk about issues and compare notes.  Even when someone posts a "I don't know about that, maybe it is X instead of Y" it is very helpful for analytical thought.  All hypothesis need to be tested and the best way to test them is to pose good questions.  My convictions about where this war has come from and is likely headed would not be as strong without the robust discussions we are having here.

If Putin had done 1/1000th as much honest and insightful discussion pre-war as we have done post-war he probably would not have invaded in the first place.  We seem to be pretty good at kicking conventional thinking right in the sensitive reproductive bits

Steve

[dan/california]

53 minutes ago, c3k said:

^^^

Regarding Xi, and China's renewed push for more nukes.  

What Putin's invasion of Russia has shown is the need for the West to put their troops in friendly territory to show commitment and resolve. Would Putin have green-lighted the invasion if there were several NATO brigades doing "training and familiarization" in eastern Ukriane?  Think about setting several USMC battalions in Taiwan on a "friendship tour".

The post-invasion rush of PGMs to Ukraine should also be a lesson. To protect Taiwain, a PRE-invasion flood of PGMs would be appropriate.

This would be a strategic counter to the PRC's expansionism in the South China Sea.

 

Back to Ukraine:

The 100-200k reserves that are expected to start arriving on the battlefield soon...how will they be integrated into the fight? Will they plus-up the existing formations, or get plugged in directly (and have to learn the lessons endemic to all green units when first in the line)?

How many NLAWs/Javelines/Drones are left for Ukraine to use? Are they sufficient to beef up the entire east front, or will they be pushed to proven units? Will they use the attritional approach, maneuver, or a combination?

I agree that Russia has lost their strategic aims, but there's still a LOT of fight left in this war.

C3k is correct across the board here. They way to have avoided the Ukraine war was to Declare it a NATO member as two Heavy brigades crossed the border to demonstrate that we weren't kidding, BEFORE the Russians attacked. The complication in Ukraine pre war was a substantial lack of faith in theUkrainian government, we believed what the Russians were telling themselves about Ukraine collapsing like a house of cards, or at least part of the U.S. government did. So we were afraid to commit. The Ukrainians have answered those doubts as emphatically as anybody in human history at this point, and anybody who is following this thread knows what I think NATO ought to be doing now.

As far as Taiwan goes my only quibble with C3ks prescription is that it should be five times larger. The marine base on Taiwan should be the size of Camp Pendelton, and completely integrated with Taiwans own defense forces, and continually helping to upgrade them. We should attempt to sink the island with the weight of missiles awaiting a Chinese attack. Taiwan can probably make most of the missiles it needs itself. It is the center of the worlds chip making industry, but any intellectual property issues with Lockheed and friends need money thrown at them. The war in Ukraines has damaged the world economy, a war over Taiwan would destroy it. The Chinese need to be absolutely convinced that trying to take Taiwan gets them nothing but well fed sharks and crabs in the Taiwan straight,

[danfrodo]

as per videos by The Vulture and Steve above:

Steve's bottom video about the arty smashing RU bridging operation:  IT'S RAINING, HARD!!!  Yeah Putin, definitely time your invasion for March/April. 

The Vulture video: That takes some real courage.  Those RU soldiers could open up on the protestors and they wouldn't even get reprimanded probably.  Good to see some restraint by at least some RU soldiers.  Might help them once they are cut off and captured

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Good real life example of arty precision on non moving target:

 

 

Who cares about seeing yet MORE Russian armor get blown up.  Seen so much of that already.  Instead, the joy I took from this was hearing this version of Ace of Spades with an accordion!  If Russians had heard this song before invading I think they'd have had even more doubts about their success as it shows just how brave Ukrainians are   (and now I know who Kozak System is)

[The Steppenwulf]

1 hour ago, c3k said:

The 100-200k reserves that are expected to start arriving on the battlefield soon...how will they be integrated into the fight?

If you are referring to the Feb/March conscription draft, they are by Russian law strictly excluded from any combat duty for first 3 months. Furthermore, all conscripted soldiers in any state of training should not be used in front line echelons  and should only make up reserve units in a formation (though Martial Law of course would throw out the rule book). 

This is a matter of controversy in the present conflict because Putin reassured the Russian nation that limitations placed on use of conscripts would be applied in the 'Special Operation', but there is now evidence that conscripts were indeed exposed to front line action in the northern axis of the invasion (twitter clips showing captured RA conscripts).
  

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Armorgunner said:

.

 

Yup.  Well said.  Exhibit A... Minsk 1.  Exhibit B... Minsk 2.

Steve

[kraze]

1 hour ago, c3k said:

^^^

Regarding Xi, and China's renewed push for more nukes.  

What Putin's invasion of Russia has shown is the need for the West to put their troops in friendly territory to show commitment and resolve. Would Putin have green-lighted the invasion if there were several NATO brigades doing "training and familiarization" in eastern Ukriane?  Think about setting several USMC battalions in Taiwan on a "friendship tour".

The post-invasion rush of PGMs to Ukraine should also be a lesson. To protect Taiwain, a PRE-invasion flood of PGMs would be appropriate.

This would be a strategic counter to the PRC's expansionism in the South China Sea.

 

Back to Ukraine:

The 100-200k reserves that are expected to start arriving on the battlefield soon...how will they be integrated into the fight? Will they plus-up the existing formations, or get plugged in directly (and have to learn the lessons endemic to all green units when first in the line)?

How many NLAWs/Javelines/Drones are left for Ukraine to use? Are they sufficient to beef up the entire east front, or will they be pushed to proven units? Will they use the attritional approach, maneuver, or a combination?

I agree that Russia has lost their strategic aims, but there's still a LOT of fight left in this war.

Many people in those reserves have previous war experience since our military prioritizes such people over everybody else.

Even in TD they get the priority.

Edited April 10, 2022 by kraze

[dan/california]

The bad guys are trying to stir thing up in the Balkans, since all their other projects are going so well.

[Battlefront]

9 hours ago, kraze said:

I like how russian cope maps went from "successes of special operation" where they captured 1/3 of Ukraine and Transnistria being there

https://twitter.com/robbieburr/status/1512586971813584904?s=20&t=mzdWDRg54ZrauGmzqXnLuw

To "ongoing special operation", with the "containment zone" in the north (whatever that means) and Transnistria evaporating

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1512523742009823240?s=20&t=mzdWDRg54ZrauGmzqXnLuw

In the USA we have a sports analogy for this (from American football):

"Moving the goalposts"

If the first declared objective fails, just change it to something easier!