How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BornGinger]

On 4/2/2022 at 5:29 PM, BFCElvis said:

For future reference, and advise for anyone else who's fortunate to get a warning ... the proper response to a post like I made is "sorry. My bad" and quitely move on. OR say nothing.

That is straight talk and no soft tunes from the central scrutinizer of this forum.

I just about came back from sitting in the penalty box for five days.

I can't promise that I'll adhere to those words though. It will probably depend on the situation. And if I'm sent off to the penalty box for five days, I'll have to use that time of rest to consider my sins.

Edited April 9, 2022 by BornGinger

[Vacillator]

Back to Boris, I'm not normally a big fan either, but this BBC article on his trip to Ukraine today did make me feel a bit more generous about him (or perhaps others under him as others have said):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61052643

EDIT:  Anyone know what the '120 armoured vehicles' might be?  You can say you could tell me but would then have to kill me if you wish .

EDIT 2: these?

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said the UK will also be providing Ukraine with armoured Mastiff vehicles to fight Russia's invasion.

Mastiffs are heavily armoured vehicles suitable for road patrols and convoys.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-sending-mastiff-armoured-vehicles-to-ukraine/

Edited April 9, 2022 by Vacillator

[Vacillator]

7 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

And if I'm sent off to the penalty box for five days, I'll have to use that time of rest to consider my sins.

As I understand it the penalty can be far more than 5 days if your sins are big enough .

[akd]

VDV column moving into Kharkiv oblast:

Mix of BMD-4Ms / BTR-MDMs and BMD-2s / BTR-Ds (although many of the BTR-D hulls are specialists variants that don’t have a BMD-4M / BTR-MDM-based versions yet) suggests more than one battalion may have been consolidated.

Edited April 9, 2022 by akd

[sross112]

22 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Doesn't look very professional.

I've thought the same from some of the videos posted, but as Dan posted a lot of these warriors didn't have the luxury of a long training cycle prior to invasion. A lot of the combat footage we have watched over the years has been US in Afghanistan and Iraq. These UA folks don't look like a USMC platoon under fire for sure, however the most junior rifleman in that USMC squad had 13 weeks of basic, 9 weeks of SOI and then probably at least a 6 month training cycle prior to deployment. Every Lcpl on up is on at least his 2nd combat tour and a hell of a lot of lessons learned have permeated those formations from years of combat. Their training budget is full and they have every bit of kit that they need. Pretty impressive how well they have done with what they have. 

A lot of these guys picked up weapons on February 24th and went to war. I reached out to Haiduk and asked for some sources to follow. He advised that most UA brigades have facebook pages and then he follows a lot of twitter accounts from soldiers and civilians in the different areas. The twitter is in Ukrainian so I can't get much from that however there are a lot of things on the brigade pages that were enlightening. The two biggest is how many of their personnel seem to have started work after the invasion and their general lack of kit. Several posts show the crowdfunding of bandages, LBE, optics, etc. Those two things are so hard to comprehend for me with my experience in the US military. It was just something that we would never have had to deal with. 

It is pretty easy to Monday morning quarterback a lot of what we see and I'm sure that their fully staffed and equipped regular units are an entirely different animal. We aren't getting to see much of that though as others have pointed out. I'm just extremely thankful that for all the short-comings we see with the UA and TD that they were invaded by an incompetent army military pack of savages that they've been able to eviscerate across their land.

[danfrodo]

So does anyone know what France has done for Ukraine?  I see some humanitarian aid, but not seeing much else? 

and please tell me that fascist pig is not gonna win the election??

Edited April 9, 2022 by danfrodo
update

[sross112]

Also, if anyone has a couple hours to devote to a documentary there is one called 93: the Battle for Ukraine by Lidi Ya films on youtube. It is two parts each an hour or so long and documents the activities of the 93rd Brigade during 2014/15. They were around Donetsk and it chronicles the defense of the airport quite well. I was looking to learn more about the earlier conflicts and found it very educational.

If anyone knows of any other good unit documentaries, please share.

[OldSarge]

 

I haven't seen this posted, but it underscores the depravity or the Russian army - in their own words. It is difficult to believe we are in the 21st century after hearing this.

[danfrodo]

32 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

Back to Boris, I'm not normally a big fan either, but this BBC article on his trip to Ukraine today did make me feel a bit more generous about him (or perhaps others under him as others have said):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61052643

EDIT:  Anyone know what the '120 armoured vehicles' might be?  You can say you could tell me but would then have to kill me if you wish .

EDIT 2: these?

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said the UK will also be providing Ukraine with armoured Mastiff vehicles to fight Russia's invasion.

Mastiffs are heavily armoured vehicles suitable for road patrols and convoys.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-sending-mastiff-armoured-vehicles-to-ukraine/

Not tanks but a lot better than brightly colored Hyundai mini SUVs. And unlike tanks & AFVs probably not much to learn?

[Aragorn2002]

I think the time has come for NATO to go all in. Send in troops and let Putin decide whether he want a full scale war. What's all the talk about freedom and democracy worth if we let all of this happen? Let's call their bluff.

[sross112]

Another question that I've had. The command structure of the UA. It seems that it jumps from Brigade to supreme command without the intermediate divisions and corps. If they have 25 or so active brigades shouldn't there be approximately 8 or 9 division commands and 2 to 3 corps commands? Seems like an awful lot for intelligence, logistics, personnel, etc to handle from a single HQ.

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So does anyone know what France has done for Ukraine?  I see some humanitarian aid, but not seeing much else? 

and please tell me that fascist pig is not gonna win the election??

I think what Macron has and has not done has been shaped by the absolute necessity  of winning this election. Once the second round is over and the utter disaster of  Le Pen victory off the table, hopefully, I expect the French Position to get a great deal more coherent.

[akd]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

Another question that I've had. The command structure of the UA. It seems that it jumps from Brigade to supreme command without the intermediate divisions and corps. If they have 25 or so active brigades shouldn't there be approximately 8 or 9 division commands and 2 to 3 corps commands? Seems like an awful lot for intelligence, logistics, personnel, etc to handle from a single HQ.

There are regional commands.

Sky News report from Barvinkove, S of Izium:

Captured T-72B obr. 1989 seems to have had some Kontakt-1 ERA slapped on to the hull, probably salvaged from a lost T-64BV.

EDIT: corrected T-72B3 to T-72B obr. 1989, but might be the first one I’ve seen with the Kontakt-5 side hull panels.

Edited April 9, 2022 by akd

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I think what Macron has and has not done has been shaped by the absolute necessity  of winning this election. Once the second round is over and the utter disaster of  Le Pen victory off the table, hopefully, I expect the French Position to get a great deal more coherent.

That sounds like a plan. Macron's defeat would complicate matters no end, and after Hungary it would be a deadly blow to European unity. 

[G.I. Joe]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

What are you thinking here Harmon Rabb? 

I've been wondering about this myself -- could anti-ship missiles be provided that could somehow reach Russian ships out of sight of shore?  Guided by drones?  This is one of my favorite dreams, where UKR unleashes a surprise anti-ship missile attack and knocks out a large number of Sauron's naval forces in the Black Sea.

My other dream is to wake up and see headlines like "gunfire and fighting going on at the kremlin". 

Have to admit the possible options for someone to provide the Ukrainian Navy with the means to hand the Black Sea Fleet its very own Midway or Leyte Gulf (Tsushima Straits also works) have been in the back of my head ever since Snake Island...

[DesertFox]

A big symbol to the orcs and the lunatic in the kremlin:

 

 

[MSBoxer]

4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I think the time has come for NATO to go all in. Send in troops and let Putin decide whether he want a full scale war. What's all the talk about freedom and democracy worth if we let all of this happen? Let's call their bluff.

I wonder if it would be practical for Zenlinsky to partition UK in to east and west Ukraine, with the new nation of Western Ukraine to immediately be granted Nato protection.  Obviously this would be a technicality, but Ukraine would would not be a Nato member, just the new nation of West Ukraine.  Nato forces could immediately take responsibility to protect W.UK freeing up current Ukrainian forces to focus on the east.  After resolution of conflict the two could re-unite.

Stupid idea I know, but the mind tends to go down the rabbit hole once in a while.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I think the time has come for NATO to go all in. Send in troops and let Putin decide whether he want a full scale war. What's all the talk about freedom and democracy worth if we let all of this happen? Let's call their bluff.

I have felt this way for three weeks now, but the powers that be just are not there yet. I think NATO should tell Putin that in twelve hours everything that flys will start trying to kill every Russian vehicle still in Ukraine, and every tank  that moves is making best speed to the Ukrainian front lines. At some point we have to stand up to nuclear blackmail, or make him world dictator. The pre war doubts about the coherence of the Ukrainian Government, state, nation, people, and everything else have been answered as emphatically as humanly possible. Ukraine, Finland, and Sweden all in NATO, while the Russian army goes home with nothing to count its dead is they way this needs to end. I just don't buy that Putin desperate later is any different than Putin desperate now. As bonus the Ukrainians could get a crop in the ground, and less of the third world will starve to death.

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

 

I wonder what form these systems will take. I am not aware of UK having or had any Harpoon coastal defense systems.

Maybe open market or other countries to acquire the missing parts? 

[Taranis]

39 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So does anyone know what France has done for Ukraine?  I see some humanitarian aid, but not seeing much else? 

and please tell me that fascist pig is not gonna win the election??

I know that protective equipment was donated (photos of a private group of French soldiers). You can see bulletproof vests (some quite old types, not really comfortable but very protective) and helmets. This is the official statement. In a way, it's a little taboo subject I think for some here because weapons are bad. But I remember that a few weeks ago there would have been a "leak" which would indicate that MILANs had been sent. The government kind of avoided the topic and said they would not say in detail what is given.

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/03/09/la-france-livre-des-missiles-antichars-milan-a-l-ukraine_6116758_3210.html

 

Quote

France delivers Milan anti-tank missiles to Ukraine

In addition to protective equipment, Paris has provided kyiv with "a few dozen" of these weapons, used by infantry troops against tanks and armored vehicles.

...

Between February 25 and 28, Paris, like other European capitals, provided protective equipment, helmets and bulletproof vests. But, since then, France has been delivering, according to our information, Milan anti-tank missiles to Ukrainian fighters. Taken from the stocks of the French army, the quantity seems, for the time being, to have remained modest – “a few dozen”, between February 28 and March 3, according to a diplomatic source.

This material was handed over to the Ukrainian army at the Polish border. The first equipment transfer operations were supervised, on the French side, by members of the special forces attached to the special operations command, placed under the orders of the Chief of Defense Staff and under the authority of the President of the Republic. , Emmanuel Macron.

 

[Desertor]

21 minutes ago, dan/california said:

As bonus the Ukrainians could get a crop in the ground, and less of the third world will starve to death.

Most of thé close captions of  land I have seen in this thread shows the neat rows of cereal coming out, I think the Ucranian farmers did sow their land in late autumn..

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Desertor said:

Most of thé close captions of  land I have seen in this thread shows the neat rows of cereal coming out, I think the Ucranian farmers did sow their land in late autumn..

That is correct. The crops are seeded in September/October.

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

I haven't seen this posted, but it underscores the depravity or the Russian army - in their own words. It is difficult to believe we are in the 21st century after hearing this.

I watched the CNN video this morning.  Thanks for posting it.  Some of the SBU recordings have been posted (here?) already, so I've heard a few before.

At one point in my life I spent a lot of time studying the warcrimes of WW2, especially in trying to understand how the "every day German" fit into the picture.  I'm seeing a LOT of similarities with the Russian activities we're gaining more information about.

The Russian military suffers from a lack of standards in general, but specific to the need to respect the Geneva Convention (specifically) and Human decency (generally).  Given how violence figures into the lives of Russians generally, this is not surprising.  Russian society has been in an arrested state of evolution under the Putin regime.  Some might argue worse than the last phase of the Soviet Union.

The point of this is the Russians are in Ukraine without a Western style frame of reference for what is/isn't acceptable behavior.  In the West you will get into trouble if you issue or follow an illegal order.  In the Russian military you get into trouble if you don't follow one.  This is an extremely important point to keep in mind.

What we've seen in Ukraine is what one should expect from such a military force.  Back to my WW2 studies...

The Russians so far seem to be fitting the same pattern seen with German "Nazi" forces.  There's a general indifference to the suffering of civilians through their direct actions.  However, when up-close-and-personal the behavior becomes more nuanced.  There are the murderous ones, for sure, but there are also cowards who go along with their orders/peers despite clearly not wanting to. 

The Guardian article posted a couple of pages ago had a Ukrainian who almost was murdered say that the Russian who came to collect people to murder was crying and said, to the Ukrainians, that he didn't want to but was ordered to.  According to the Ukrainian survivor he in fact murdered 4 (3 verified, 1 still ?) and let 6 (or 7?) go with instructions to hide themselves in a barn his unit wasn't likely to go into.

French survivors of the massacre of Oradour-sur-Glane told of similar stories of SS soldiers passively, and in one case I can remember actively, helping someone escape being murdered.  Yet for the most part the unit involved did a thorough job of it.  This despite the bulk of the unit being made up of Alsatians force conscripted into the SS.

The intercept in the CNN article shows evidence of the conflict between Russians that would probably not kill civilians on their own and those who definitely have it in mind to kill civilians.  The recording of a small unit leader reported that they have some civilians approaching them, his commander ordered them to be killed.  The small unit leader objected by restating that they are civilians.  The commander overrode this and ordered him to kill them.  Whether the unit leader did or didn't is not known at this point, but either way it shows what happens when the chain of command feels no obligation to upholding the rules of war.

There's also evidence that some Russian units are more inclined to murder than others.  I've heard plenty of first hand accounts from Ukrainians describing the difference.  The problem for the Ukrainians is that just don't know which they are going to experience and it could change at any moment.

As the war drags on and the partisan activities continue to have their intended effect, the atrocities will likely increase.  Some Russians who were not inclined to murder in the first days or weeks of the war might be quite willing to murder now.  The proportion of Russians willing to murder civilians is already far too common, so this is not good.

What seems to be far more universal with the Russians is looting.

Steve

P.S.  it will be interesting to read the history books years from now and see how much of the murdering is being done by regular Russian units and how much by Russian security forces.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Desertor said:

Most of thé close captions of  land I have seen in this thread shows the neat rows of cereal coming out, I think the Ucranian farmers did sow their land in late autumn..

Well, yes, but It can't get harvested, shipped, and replanted for fall when Ukrainian farmers are busy being the engineering support for the army, and dodging random Russian violence. Russia is also systematically wrecking Ukraines fuel infrastructure and blockading the Black Sea, so nothing is getting shipped. Egypt, Lebanon, and a lot of other places are going to literally starve.

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, akd said:

There are regional commands.

Sky News report from Barvinkove, S of Izium:

Good one.  Thanks for posting it.  This is going to be one of the key spots to watch in the coming days/weeks.

46 minutes ago, akd said:

Captured T-72B3 seems to have had some Kontakt-1 ERA slapped on to the hull, probably salvaged from a lost T-64BV.

You can see the yellowish paint on them that shows they had once been on a Ukrainian tank.

Steve