How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BeondTheGrave]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There's lots of subtlety to the specifics of these, as well as some really silly ones (Russian language protection, recognition of DLPR and Crimea, etc.), but it really does boil down to these three points.  None of these are possible for Russia to obtain under any circumstances I can think up, even wildly unlikely ones. 

The attacker gets to set the conditions by which it can claim victory, but the defender can deny them.  Since these are Russia's goals and they can't achieve them, the only conclusion to arrive at is Russia has lost the war.  I've been saying that since Day 5 or so.  Since then I've seen only reinforcement of that conclusion.

I think this is pretty spot on. Ultimately Putin can declare victory and move on regardless of the broader operational/strategic context. If Mariupol falls Putin could well say "Thats it we've done it! Good job boys, now lets go home." But just because he says that doesn't make it true. Objectively its not, if we assume what I would think its the maximum potential territory for Russia, they would control all of the Donbas Oblasts, all of Kherson Oblast, and the Oblast(s) in the land bridge. But like Steve points out, thats a far cry from the entire country, AND its not necessarily peaceful territory. Kherson has been a hotbed for resistance. Mariupol will need billions to rebuild. And the whole area is economically exhausted. It'll take a generation before Russia turns a profit governing these regions. And the cost is high, way out of proportion for anything Russia would gain. Tens of thousands dead, the Russia economy hammered on the fronts from war, rebuilding, and sanctions. NATO totally united and primed to expand. And the Russian national reputation has crossed a serious Rubicon now it'll be years before the moral stains of this war will be forgotten. Putin has bet the farm, and right now his ROI isnt set to justify that.

But the real question, and IMO the deciding question, is how peace would play in Russia. Putin set the Ukrainians up as Hitler Youth, grandbabby gestapo. Friends with the devil himself (that is the west). Will Russians suddenly forget this and accept a negotiated peace for a piece of anything? Or is that Moscow's Munich moment? How will the cost of war be received on the homefront, balanced against rhetoric and undeniable realities? In the vein of George Orwell, you can convince a society to doublethink, but only for so long and only so far. When the reality starts to bite, when Little Pasha cant get his favorite McDonalds, when Little Katarina has to buy the ****ty rPhone, when Babushka cant find sugar or chocolate for baking at the market, when they think about their dead, wounded, scarred husbands and brothers and sons, will they say "yeah but we got Kherson" or will they be angry? More importantly than Putin's role as a genius internationally, I think potentially (im not Russian) broke is his invincibility domestically. The great man wont look so great after all this is over. 

And certainly we wont see him coronate himself Tsar. 

[BeondTheGrave]

Not sure how much of this is already been covered but here are a few morning tweets for everyone:

 

[Haiduk]

 

 

Edited April 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Maquisard manqué]

https://www.economist.com/1843/2022/03/29/i-see-their-faces-a-saboteur-hunter-in-kyiv-remembers-his-victims

Interesting insight for a civvy (like me) of what it’s like for your world to flip. A lot of nuance and humanity in this piece.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I think this is pretty spot on. Ultimately Putin can declare victory and move on regardless of the broader operational/strategic context. If Mariupol falls Putin could well say "Thats it we've done it! Good job boys, now lets go home." But just because he says that doesn't make it true. Objectively its not, if we assume what I would think its the maximum potential territory for Russia, they would control all of the Donbas Oblasts, all of Kherson Oblast, and the Oblast(s) in the land bridge. But like Steve points out, thats a far cry from the entire country, AND its not necessarily peaceful territory. Kherson has been a hotbed for resistance. Mariupol will need billions to rebuild. And the whole area is economically exhausted. It'll take a generation before Russia turns a profit governing these regions. And the cost is high, way out of proportion for anything Russia would gain. Tens of thousands dead, the Russia economy hammered on the fronts from war, rebuilding, and sanctions. NATO totally united and primed to expand. And the Russian national reputation has crossed a serious Rubicon now it'll be years before the moral stains of this war will be forgotten. Putin has bet the farm, and right now his ROI isnt set to justify that.

But the real question, and IMO the deciding question, is how peace would play in Russia. Putin set the Ukrainians up as Hitler Youth, grandbabby gestapo. Friends with the devil himself (that is the west). Will Russians suddenly forget this and accept a negotiated peace for a piece of anything? Or is that Moscow's Munich moment? How will the cost of war be received on the homefront, balanced against rhetoric and undeniable realities? In the vein of George Orwell, you can convince a society to doublethink, but only for so long and only so far. When the reality starts to bite, when Little Pasha cant get his favorite McDonalds, when Little Katarina has to buy the ****ty rPhone, when Babushka cant find sugar or chocolate for baking at the market, when they think about their dead, wounded, scarred husbands and brothers and sons, will they say "yeah but we got Kherson" or will they be angry? More importantly than Putin's role as a genius internationally, I think potentially (im not Russian) broke is his invincibility domestically. The great man wont look so great after all this is over. 

And certainly we wont see him coronate himself Tsar. 

And yet I think we underestimate how well Putin's propaganda machine has done it's job in Russia. Yesterday I've watched a documentary about China and the view of the Chinese population of the West. This is not the old China anymore, but a determined, confident world power, that despises the weakness and decadency of the West. And although I know that Russia can't be compared to China I think the hatred of the West will motivate them to keep standing behind Putin and continue this fight to the bitter end. 

One of the things that struck me in the documentary about China was the statement of a China-expert that Chinese are used to suffering ('Eating bitterness'), while the West is 'in pursuit of happiness'. I think the Russians are also used to eating bitterness. Instead of a speedy collapse I think we are in for another long and bitter Cold War, with Putin in power, surviving disaster afer disaster like Stalin. Many people expect another 'downfall', like happened to the Soviets, but I don't.

China will profit from what's happening in Europe, that much is sure. I bet they are enjoying themselves tremendously, because no matter how we turn it, the war in Ukraine is costing the West a LOT of money.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Haiduk]

Interesting specimen - Kadyrov's trops in Mariupol use "Aralan" MRAP - this is South African "Marauder", assembled by license in Kazakhstan uder local name. Several theese vehicles were ordered by Kadyrov for his Chechen Republic SOBR detachment (special police)

Another example, how Chechen units TO&E could be differnet from TO&E of Rosgvardia, to which Kadyrov's forces officially belong.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

JTO zone on Donbas has three lines of defense, but it were built mostly against eastern direction. Russians main efforts is massing from the north of JTO and with some less push on the south. This will be heavy assault-defense type battles with bigger concentrations of trops and less opportinity to maneuver with "light infantry". 

And yes, probablly some counter measures will be prepared to hit on Russian supply lines in the deep rear. But when this will be possible and with which forces I dom't know. 

For previous 1-2 days Russians could advance on Barvinkove direction and took Brazhivka village. Units of their 1st tank regiment also advanced to the neighbour village Sulyhivka, but were repelled. 

Here probably a video ot Russian tanks, burning near Sulyhivka

Also reportedly oor troops in first time used captured TOS-1A at Russian troops on Izium direction

Thanks for the info. Let's hope countermeasures and counter attacks will be good enough to stall this offensive as well.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, BeondTheGrave said:

 Putin set the Ukrainians up as Hitler Youth, grandbabby gestapo. Friends with the devil himself (that is the west). Will Russians suddenly forget this and accept a negotiated peace for a piece of anything? Or is that Moscow's Munich moment? How will the cost of war be received on the homefront, balanced against rhetoric and undeniable realities? In the vein of George Orwell, you can convince a society to doublethink, but only for so long and only so far. 

You think too humbly.

Putin set nothing up. Hatred towards Ukrainians is many centuries old. Russian whole "culture" is built to include it in the very same way muslims hate Jews.

Hatred towards Ukrainians can be seen in writings of all their "cultural" figures, who show little kindness describing victims of Russia to put it lightly.

Heck Dostoyevsky wrote a huge rant about how Ukrainians (among other enslaved Slavic people) are bad because we are so ungrateful of all the "gifts" Russia provides (naming absolute monarchy among them) and want to align with evil Europe.

So when a whole country has role models and culture rooted in imperialistic and, often, racist mentality - people in charge don't need to set anything up.

They just need to quote Bulgakov.

Remember - earliest known laws forbidding Ukrainian language go as far as 18th century. Clearly putin wasn't anywhere to be seen there.

Edited April 5, 2022 by kraze

[keas66]

10 minutes ago, kraze said:

You think too humbly.

Putin set nothing up. Hatred towards Ukrainians is many centuries old. Russian whole "culture" is built to include it in the very same way muslims hate Jews.

Hatred towards Ukrainians can be seen in writings of all their "cultural" figures, who show little kindness describing victims of Russia to put it lightly.

Heck Dostoyevsky wrote a huge rant about how Ukrainians (among other enslaved Slavic people) are bad because we are so ungrateful of all the "gifts" Russia provides (naming absolute monarchy among them) and want to align with evil Europe.

So when a whole country has role models and culture rooted in imperialistic and, often, racist mentality - people in charge don't need to set anything up.

They just need to quote Bulgakov.

Yeah - that was a surprise for someone as ignorant of Ukraine's history as myself . I had read Bulgakov's first novel some time  back  - "White Guard" and had not realized just how anti-Ukrainian it was until picking it up again recently .

[Battlefront.com]

This just uploaded... Stugna-P taking out a KA-52:

 

[Haiduk]

Rare Russian T-72 versions

T-72AV of 239th Guard tank regiment of 90th Guard tank division, Eastern military district

Т-72BA (author of tweet mistook T-72BA and T-72B3)

 

[A Canadian Cat]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This isn't really correct.  Putin had 3 major goals in this order:

1.  Subjugate all of Ukraine and make it a slave state to Russia.  This is a HARD FAIL!  So Putin's top goal is absolutely off the table.  Period.

2.  Destroy Ukraine's capacity to resist Russian aggression.  HARD FAIL on this one too.  No matter what happens with this battle there's a couple hundred thousands pissed off and armed Ukrainians that are ready to keep the fight going.

3.  Keep Ukraine neutral.  HARD FAIL here too.  Ukraine was willing to be neutral before this war, but ironically Russia's war took that off the table unless there's guarrantees that Russia can never harm Ukraine again. Which means, effectively, Ukraine is not neutral in any real sense of the word because it is militarily allied with Russia's enemies.

There's lots of subtlety to the specifics of these, as well as some really silly ones (Russian language protection, recognition of DLPR and Crimea, etc.), but it really does boil down to these three points.  None of these are possible for Russia to obtain under any circumstances I can think up, even wildly unlikely ones.

First I believe Steve has assessed reality correctly. In any real sense of assessing Putin's goals he has lost. The problem is reality doesn't matter much to a dictator who has a near 1984 like system working in his country. So, while we might correctly asses reality, Putin does not and he will try very hard to not let his citizens see it. He'll just say "we always wanted to free Dombas and create a land bridge to Crimea". He'll call it a victory and hide his other failings. By hide I mean deny of course. Anyone who is observing reality will see that he is making **** up. The issue is Putin has been making **** up this whole time and so it's no bother to suddenly start making up different ****.

The questions are will the rest of the world let him get away with it? Will his citizenry and other political supporters let him? We don't know that yet. Clearly this situation is way out of hand from what Putin planned and its fall out is a serious threat to his term as leader of Russia. There is still a possibility that the Russian army can secure some modest territorial gains and Putin can call this a win and attempt to re-frame this whole adventure. The problem with this is Ukraine does not look like they will just stop and accept that so can Putin's battered army actually hold any sham victory? Will the rest of the world loose interest and start walking their pressure on Russia back? Will Putin's elite supporters let him stay in power?

I think (hope?) the answers are: no the rest of the world will not want him to get away with it, no Russian citizenry cannot over throw Putin but Putin is not save from his security system, no Ukraine will not let the Russian army hold anything, no the rest of the world will not forget, and no Putin's elite supporters will not let him stay: Putin's days are numbered.

But it doesn't matter much what I think it matters what actually happens and we don't know for sure yet how those questions will play out.

[sross112]

This video was posted on here last night but I don't recall the troops being identified as the 503rd NI Bn. Just for informational purposes for anyone tracking units and of course I am just going off the title and can't confirm the unit.

One odd thing to me, no one is wounded. One guy might have a sprained ankle and walks with a limp but not a single walking wounded in the group. Not sure what that means or if it means anything, just an observation.

[Aragorn2002]

50 minutes ago, kraze said:

You think too humbly.

Putin set nothing up. Hatred towards Ukrainians is many centuries old. Russian whole "culture" is built to include it in the very same way muslims hate Jews.

Hatred towards Ukrainians can be seen in writings of all their "cultural" figures, who show little kindness describing victims of Russia to put it lightly.

Heck Dostoyevsky wrote a huge rant about how Ukrainians (among other enslaved Slavic people) are bad because we are so ungrateful of all the "gifts" Russia provides (naming absolute monarchy among them) and want to align with evil Europe.

So when a whole country has role models and culture rooted in imperialistic and, often, racist mentality - people in charge don't need to set anything up.

They just need to quote Bulgakov.

Remember - earliest known laws forbidding Ukrainian language go as far as 18th century. Clearly putin wasn't anywhere to be seen there.

In the youtube movie posted on this forum about Russian society and history (highly recommended) from a Finnish ex-intelligence officier it becomes clear that a lot of Russians hate all the others, the non- Russians. As example he mentioned the Finns and Swedish, but the list is no doubt endless. This already starts at school and is woven into the Russian culture.

The 'enlighted' ones among us may think this is 'racist', but these are facts. The Russian society itself is to a great extend racist and hostile to non-Russians. 

Edited April 5, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

China will profit from what's happening in Europe, that much is sure. I bet they are enjoying themselves tremendously, because no matter how we turn it, the war in Ukraine is costing the West a LOT of money.

Think of it like a three-person game of Risk.  If player 3 can induce player 1 and 2 to fight themselves to exhaustion - and potentially reducing the post-fight production capacity (not modelled in Risk) - while they bulk up, player 3 will then methodically and inexorably sweep the board.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

And yet I think we underestimate how well Putin's propaganda machine has done it's job in Russia.

Putin can spin this however he wants to and most Russians will believe it to some degree.  True.  But it doesn't change the fact that he's lost this war according to his own goals.  And whether his regime can survive the totality of this defeat is not up to the propagandists as much as it is the practical problems that Russians will face as long as Putin is in power.

Steve

[Commanderski]

14 minutes ago, sross112 said:

One odd thing to me, no one is wounded. One guy might have a sprained ankle and walks with a limp but not a single walking wounded in the group. Not sure what that means or if it means anything, just an observation.

There is an article by a US Navy Seal that talks about the same thing. Too many inconsistencies in that video.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1591385/Ukraine-latest-mariupol-surrender-video-russia-propaganda

[billbindc]

17 minutes ago, sross112 said:

This video was posted on here last night but I don't recall the troops being identified as the 503rd NI Bn. Just for informational purposes for anyone tracking units and of course I am just going off the title and can't confirm the unit.

One odd thing to me, no one is wounded. One guy might have a sprained ankle and walks with a limp but not a single walking wounded in the group. Not sure what that means or if it means anything, just an observation.

The 503rd has denied it. There's also the involvement of Khadyrov which is in and of itself a reason to doubt the veracity of the claim. There also seem to be some red armbands (separatist marker) jammed into pockets. Mark this one as doubtful.

Edited April 5, 2022 by billbindc

[Harmon Rabb]

Just now, billbindc said:

The 503rd has denied it. There's also the involvement of Khadyrov which is in and of itself a reason to doubt the veracity of the claim. There also seem to be some red armbands (Separatist market) jammed into pockets. Mark this one as doubtful.

 

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, sross112 said:

This video was posted on here last night but I don't recall the troops being identified as the 503rd NI Bn. Just for informational purposes for anyone tracking units and of course I am just going off the title and can't confirm the unit.

One odd thing to me, no one is wounded. One guy might have a sprained ankle and walks with a limp but not a single walking wounded in the group. Not sure what that means or if it means anything, just an observation.

This is 501st marines battalion. They surrendered, because wasted all ammunition.

Despite 503rd was dislocated in Mariupol, but in the day of invasion it held positions near Crimean isthmus, so denying of 503rd battalion that this is not their troops on the video is also true. 

Edited April 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

This came recommended from Scott Coulson

 

Behind the Front Lines, Russia’s Military Struggles to Supply Its Forces - WSJ

[Haiduk]

First time spotted Russian 2S4 240 mm heavy SP-mortar. Mariupol

2S4 is army-level asset. A battalion of 2S4 - 12 pieces is a part of Army's artillery bigade. Also 8 pieces in composition of 45th high-power artillery brigade, subordinated to Western military district 

Edited April 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[sross112]

Was typing when Haiduk and others posted the above stuff. That certainly makes more sense.

Edited April 5, 2022 by sross112

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, IanL said:

The questions are will the rest of the world let him get away with it? Will his citizenry and other political supporters let him? We don't know that yet.

Yup, there's a lot of thinking about this, but it could go so many different ways it's difficult to see which one is the most likely.

However, we must remember that dictatorships are prone to failure.  Either from the masses or rival factions within or a combination of both.  Putin is in the difficult position of having to defend against anybody who disagrees with his leadership.  Pro-democracy types as well as hardline nationalists who think he's screwed up a good thing.  The problem for Putin is he REQUIRES the support of the hardline nationalists. 

Any loss of support from the hardline nationalist groups will have an impact on his security apparatus because they form the core of its leadership and probably low level staffing.  The degree of impact would be proportional to the level of dissatisfaction and who specifically starts to think Russia might be better off with a new dictator.

I've never put much stock in a Russian pro-democracy movement toppling Putin, but mass unrest could be a major factor.  Especially if the security services start to show signs of weakness and divided loyalties.  Remember, the bulk of the security forces live paycheck to paycheck so it is not like they will be unaffected personally by things like food rationing, inability to purchase a new car, etc.

The other thing to consider is that Putin has pretty much hit the end of his options from a police state standpoint.  The only thing he has left now is summary executions and gulags.  I don't think the masses will put up with that.  Which means as the internal situation becomes more unstable he really doesn't have much he can do to counter it that he isn't already doing.  He will have a difficult time reestablishing equilibrium in the event of some sort of mass protest event.  And dictatorships don't last long if they can't counter the imbalance.

Steve

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, there's a lot of thinking about this, but it could go so many different ways it's difficult to see which one is the most likely.

However, we must remember that dictatorships are prone to failure.  Either from the masses or rival factions within or a combination of both.  Putin is in the difficult position of having to defend against anybody who disagrees with his leadership.  Pro-democracy types as well as hardline nationalists who think he's screwed up a good thing.  The problem for Putin is he REQUIRES the support of the hardline nationalists. 

Any loss of support from the hardline nationalist groups will have an impact on his security apparatus because they form the core of its leadership and probably low level staffing.  The degree of impact would be proportional to the level of dissatisfaction and who specifically starts to think Russia might be better off with a new dictator.

I've never put much stock in a Russian pro-democracy movement toppling Putin, but mass unrest could be a major factor.  Especially if the security services start to show signs of weakness and divided loyalties.  Remember, the bulk of the security forces live paycheck to paycheck so it is not like they will be unaffected personally by things like food rationing, inability to purchase a new car, etc.

The other thing to consider is that Putin has pretty much hit the end of his options from a police state standpoint.  The only thing he has left now is summary executions and gulags.  I don't think the masses will put up with that.  Which means as the internal situation becomes more unstable he really doesn't have much he can do to counter it that he isn't already doing.  He will have a difficult time reestablishing equilibrium in the event of some sort of mass protest event.  And dictatorships don't last long if they can't counter the imbalance.

Steve

A very wise person used to tell me "dictatorships looks rock solid until they don't". That applies to Putin was well. The inverted pyramid of the Russian state rests on him. One stroke, one debilitating medical episode and the entire edifice begins to shake. There's a reason he's clearly so terrified of getting covid: