How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

11 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Besides when BMP vehicles from the DDR can still be made serviceable, we can safely assume so can these Marders.

Those BMP-1s were first sold to Sweden (335 pieces) and there modified into Pbv 501. Then these vehicles were aquired by Czech republic and 58 pieces are now sold to Ukraine. Dunno what happened to the rest of those 335 pieces in Sweden. Greece also received some 500 ex-NVA pieces, so there is still a lot of ex-NVA stuff floating around somewhere.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

On the specific nonsense of the bodies being too “fresh” (and I seriously doubt the expertise needed to judge from photos is present here), here is an independent journalist on the ground there:

 

 

Standard rule of thumb for me... the more an argument about a video's authenticity relies upon "I've looked at and I suddenly a forensics expert", the more sure I am that the video is real.  This is how I concluded the video of Russian PoWs getting shot in the legs was most likely not a fake.  People were making all kinds of detailed and uniformed comments about blood pooling and twitching that clearly showed they didn't know what they were talking about.

As is so often the case, usually the most obvious answer is the correct one.

Steve

[TheVulture]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

I talked to a lot of russians and hear them talk a lot in the last 8 years to know about this classic "let's act naїve" act. It's almost like a group mentality in relation to standing up for holiness of their country where they consciously deny every obvious fact until they can't anymore. Then they go "well Ukrainians deserved it anyway, whatcha gonna do about it?".

Another variant popular in politics has 4 stepe:

1. It's not true

2. It's not true

3. It's not true

4. It's old news

[Saberwander]

20 minutes ago, akd said:

They are IR, so you wouldn’t see them in normal video like above.

I do think some IR emitters show up on camera. Not sure if it would be visible like that. Does look quite obvious to anyone observing.

What could it be if not a laser? Seems to move very steadily and gets "broken up" when going over bad terrain.

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

First of all, thank you for taking the time to register on the Forum to make this post.  All contributions are welcome!

YOU ARE CORRECT!!!!  That is a laser.  I'd bet tonight's dinner that is exactly what you saw.  Very good eyes in your head

However, it might not be a designator.  It could be a range finder.  The two are different beasts.  One is designed to guide a munition, the other is to determine location.  Designators have to be more powerful than range finders.  Here is a simple explanation about the differences:

https://pointerclicker.com/laser-pointer-vs-laser-designator/

I don't know if designators show up as red or use a different spectrum.

Steve

I have to be honest and admit someone on twitter pointed that out, thought it might offer some insight into what was used.  

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

Standard rule of thumb for me... the more an argument about a video's authenticity relies upon "I've looked at and I suddenly a forensics expert", the more sure I am that the video is real.  This is how I concluded the video of Russian PoWs getting shot in the legs was most likely not a fake.  People were making all kinds of detailed and uniformed comments about blood pooling and twitching that clearly showed they didn't know what they were talking about.

As is so often the case, usually the most obvious answer is the correct one.

Steve

That video would have been an amazing step up from the past Russian propaganda films in this conflict.

Only way of faking that would have been to do it for real. Meaning Russians actually shooting and torturing their own "undesirables" like inmates, deserters ext.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

I'm pretty sure DMS knows full well it's a real war crime done by his army. And is ok with it.

I talked to a lot of russians and hear them talk a lot in the last 8 years to know about this classic "let's act naїve" act. It's almost like a group mentality in relation to standing up for holiness of their country where they consciously deny every obvious fact until they can't anymore. Then they go "well Ukrainians deserved it anyway, whatcha gonna do about it?".

The video made by the retired Finnish colonel covered this in detail.  The best example of this is Putin saying "our troops are not in Crimea".  "Well, what about those Tigr trucks?"  "Anybody can get those on eBay".  Obviously a complete lie, but Russians on this Forum were arguing vehemently that they weren't Russian troops.  Then after Putin said "Of course they are Russian.  We sent them there because we had to" the argument disappeared as if it was never made.

Having had many arguments with Russians over 20+ years like this, far fewer than you I am sure, I've seen the same pattern.  Denny the obvious when the obvious is not to your liking, no matter how obvious it is.  This is often used in tandem with distraction ("whataboutism") in order to derail discussion of the obvious.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Well Chayko is still alive but has functionally left the targeting area, the rotter. I wonder where he's ended up? Izium?

Still, now that UKR can Transfer combat resources to the East/South, I'm hoping to see more óf his ilk get squished. 

@Haiduk do you have a sense where the UA is pivoting to? The JTO? 

It's a lot to fight out, and easier for Russia to supply than say, Kherson. But another defeat, another 30-40% loss rate there (in the JTO) would break the back of the Invasion.

Obversely, taking Kherson would be a smaller bit with a great morale, political and narrative boost.

Personally, I think theyll fight it out in the Donbass, and win. Push to the coast, isolate Donetsk and Luhansk and let them rot.

[Machor]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

 

Russian income is quite uneven by region: 

 

These soldiers serving in the unit from Khabarovsk that was occupying Bucha are (some were) from the Republic of Sakha, which has a 10-20K GDP as per the map. Note that most Far Eastern regions are higher GDP:

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Saberwander said:

I do think some IR emitters show up on camera. Not sure if it would be visible like that. Does look quite obvious to anyone observing.

What could it be if not a laser? Seems to move very steadily and gets "broken up" when going over bad terrain.

I am looking forward to my dinner tonight, and yet I am willing to bet it on this being a laser.  So at least I'm convinced of it

However, I am pretty sure it is a range finder and not a designator.  This is actually more consistent with my theory about what is going on in this video than if it were a designator.  Here's why...

A designator is totally pointless to have unless you have laser guided munitions inbound.  While it is possible Ukraine got some on the side that we don't know about (definitely a realistic chance of that), there are other explanations as to the accuracy.  However, the other explanations require a laser range finder and a GPS tracker, plus some other stuff.  So seeing a laser range finder in this video is consistent with my overall theory.

4 minutes ago, Saberwander said:

I have to be honest and admit someone on twitter pointed that out, thought it might offer some insight into what was used.  

You are also humble, that's a bonus

Steve

[Haiduk]

Mother shows to UKR soldiers a body of own daughter, which was shot dead by Russian soldiers in first day of occupation of Bucha. She just went out a gate of own yard to look at Russian column and was killed. Mother partailly buried her in own yard as she could, covered her with polyethylen film and boards. The body lay for about a month. Reportedly 410 bodies already were delivered from territories of Kyiv oblast, liberated from occupation

GRAPHIC VIDEO: https://twitter.com/i/status/1510654141516943371

 

 

Edited April 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[Ultradave]

This is pretty good news. Things at Chernobyl sound pretty much back to normal or getting there. At least normal for Chernobyl

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-41-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine?fbclid=IwAR18LbQ1A3bKgy7AHcq0gpEdbzkN8jRhbjd-weL5ee82n-1aRJPwHwpORhc

Dave

[Machor]

The Russian Liberation Army returns.  This Russian captain volunteered to serve with the Legion "Liberty to Russia":

 

[DesertFox]

How bad are their logistics really? Well see yourself for those scavenged fire brigade vehicles...

 

 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, DMS said:

I didn't serve in Russian army.
This narrative is irrational, hard to believe and contradicts to typical behaviour of soldiers we looked before (well, if they are so mad - they would openly beat and kick civilians all the time). People are killed just before filming, their clothes are clean, blood is still red. On this photo skin is... Like alive person's. Unfortunately I watched a lot of videos with dead people last month, they don't look like that already after few hours. So, that unit retreats from Bucha. Last rear guard. And so, they go and execute civilians to leave dead bodies for VSU? Just go to street and shoot and random people? Really? Hidden SBU agents in Russian ranks? They are retreating, their unit can be cut, they can easily become POWs. And they go and make street shooting for fun. I understand your point, ok, you got me - I "deny obvious war crime in Bucha", if you want. I sincerely can't believe in this story, not because Russian army is saint and can't do something bad (they do sometimes), but because this is completely illogical.

http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Russia-Ukraine-War/c916a59a35d54ad1a619d0f00a233464/2/0

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

This is pretty good news. Things at Chernobyl sound pretty much back to normal or getting there. At least normal for Chernobyl

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-41-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine?fbclid=IwAR18LbQ1A3bKgy7AHcq0gpEdbzkN8jRhbjd-weL5ee82n-1aRJPwHwpORhc

Dave

Saw a news article that the first Russian soldier from their Chernobyl entrenchment misadventure had died of radiation poisoning. I am wondering if any of that battalion will live till 2023. Of course the evidence from Bucha is that it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys.

[Machor]

The ones Oryx didn't get: Destroyed and damaged BMDs getting sent back to Russia through Belarus:

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

This is pretty good news. Things at Chernobyl sound pretty much back to normal or getting there. At least normal for Chernobyl

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-41-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine?fbclid=IwAR18LbQ1A3bKgy7AHcq0gpEdbzkN8jRhbjd-weL5ee82n-1aRJPwHwpORhc

Dave

The same can't be said for the Russians who were stationed there.  "A month's experience here will last you a lifetime!  But not a normal lifetime.  A much shorter lifetime".

Steve

[Machor]

Remains of an unidentified Russian aircraft in the forests of the Kyiv region - the account is claiming this is a hitherto unknown Russian system:

 

[Ultradave]

There are reports that at least one Russian soldier has died from radiation exposure from their little adventure in the forests around Chernobyl.

It's only been a week or two. Based on that, I'd estimate that he received 3-6 Gy total dose, or about 300-600 rem, possibly more (as much as 10Gy or 1000rem).

Remember for some contrast and perspective your yearly background is about 0.003Gy (300 MILLIrem).  A whole body CT or PET scan gives about .008-.012 Gy (about 1.0 rem). Chest X-ray is a small fraction of that. Because of my cancer I've had 3 PETs and about 6 CTs (all full body) over the last 3 years, with no ill effects, as would anybody. That's about .1 Gy (10rem) over several years. About .5 Gy (50rem) is the cutoff where below that single acute dose there are no measurable effects on the body. (This is the consensus of the American Nuclear Society and the Health Physics Society - I helped write the public statement explaining the ANS stance).

These soldiers received massive doses of radiation. No way to tell how much was internally ingested and how much was external from the soil. A lot of each I'd guess. I think being in a wooded area would mean more from the soil than if they were in open areas. In the Chernobyl cleanup a LOT of topsoil was removed to remove the contamination as much as possible, at least put it all in one area. That would have been MUCH harder to do in the middle of a forested area and I don't know if that was even done or just set off as a higher level exclusion zone. Might try to find out.

Kind of a stream of consciousness there but hopefully the estimates of the numbers will give an idea of just how much the increase in radiation is compared to what we're all used to on a normal basis. I'll finish with the thought that if this one soldier died in a week, we would expect quite a few more deaths within the next 3 -4 weeks. It's *possible* that after that, the remainder may recover, maybe. And by recover, I mean not die right away. Their futures might be bleak, with greatly increased cancer risk.

Dave

PS - one thing I thought of. The radiation mechanism for CT and PET is different. For CT is really a fancy X-ray machine with software that builds up a 3d picture of the scan. The PET is created by injecting you with radioactive FDG (flouro-dyoxy-glucose). The fluorine is attached to glucose and the PET scanner reads the decay radiation from it. Cancer cells are MUCH more active than normal cells and will preferentially absorb the glucose. It has a very short half life (decays really fast), so that it basically lights up cancerous areas. So mostly internal radiation from wherever the glucose goes, along with the briefer CT they do to map the results. (More stream of consciousness)

Edited April 3, 2022 by Ultradave

[Haiduk]

31 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

do you have a sense where the UA is pivoting to? The JTO? 

Russia will try to encircle JTO, so huge battle in northern axis near Izium area and on southern axis in Velyka Novosilka area.

Already two days we have many photos of destroyed enemy vehicles from southern axis, so Russian offensive has some problems. Northern axim more problematic for us, the enemy try to advance from two directions. 

Also heavy fights in Rubizhe - Sieverodonetsk, Popasna, Maryinka. Latter Russians already grounded on 50%. Unclear situatin near Avdiivka. Russians heave shell and bomb the town, but hasn't sucees on the ground. They can't pass industrial zone (so-called "Promka"). Some separs resources claim the fights continue near Yasynuvata (near Avdiivka, under DPR control since 2014), but I don't think this could be our counter-attack. Probably they meant clashes in area of Promka and Yasynuvata road junction 

[DesertFox]

Lets see what happens...

 

 

[Holien]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You are also humble, that's a bonus

Hehe hehe I wonder who might have returned, I wonder if he knows how to use a VPN. 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, akd said:

On the specific nonsense of the bodies being too “fresh” (and I seriously doubt the expertise needed to judge from photos is present here), here is an independent journalist on the ground there:

 

Wow, the Ukrainians spare no expense on their "crisis actors".  They even smell dead.  -- this will soon be appearing on your favorite Russian propaganda feeds.

[danfrodo]

Dumb question, and I've seen that Ukrainian officials say there's no way they can relieve Mariupoll in time.  But is there actually anyway UA can relieve Mariupol?  What would it take?  It looks like RU can get supplies from both east and west -- is that so?  So would have to cut russians on two sides or make thrust to the city itself. 

What's the terrain?  Where would someone who knows the area strike?

[c3k]

The Russian retreat from Kiev.

 

Yes, it was a defeat, and yes, some rearguards seemed to be in a rush. What is of interest to me, is the apparent lack of Ukrainian offense displayed. There were no pockets formed, no cutoffs. Were some retreating convoys harassed and fired upon? Yes, but that seems to be the limit of what occurred.

Unless I've missed a massive amount of information being relayed from the area (hey, it is possible), it is disturbing (not quite alarming) that the Ukrainian armed forces seemed to be either unable or unwilling to interdict, destroy, encircle, or press the retreating forces.

What does that matter? Well, it matters because those Russians were pulled out to reinforce the Donbass region. The Russians have gained territory. If the Ukrainian military is unable/unwilling to generate offensive combat during a retreat, how will they fare against an entrenched enemy?

Posting these thoughts because I'm (hopefully) missing something here.