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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Vehcile of Russian column probably blows up on the AT-mine or IED

Notice how most of them abandon their vehicles and run as far away as possible. Only the guys in the first vehicle seem to run to check on the one that got blown up.

Of course with the amount of casualties they've been sustaining you can't blame them for running like the wind.

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20 minute walk around of what is apparently an abandoned Russian position near Kharkiv:

Plenty of MTLBs and a few tanks (think he calls them T72-B3s), loads of kit lying around (MANPADS, ATGMs, tank shells etc).

Starts going at about 1:31, tank at 14:19. Also an indicator of how crappy that terrain actually is: obvious linear concealment in open fields, windy as hell and probably freezing too.

I'm not sure which is more distressing: the profusion of white sandbags or the way the cameraman walks around with no apparent regard for booby traps.

Edited by Hapless
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14 hours ago, Fenris said:

Got from another board.  Was posted as a response to us wondering how did it come to this.  It's a lecture about the evolution and nature of what you could I suppose call the russian national psyche and how that is playing into the decisions that have been made to get us to where we are today.   I don't know enough to critique his analysis but I will say I found it quite interesting.

Evaluation of Russia by Finnish Intelligence Colonel (subtitles) | December 3, 2018

 

 

fascinating. I learned a lot. Thanks for posting.

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21 minutes ago, Hapless said:

I'm not sure which is more distressing: the profusion of white sandbags or the way the cameraman walks around with no apparent regard for booby traps.

In such a situation I doubt very much any surviving Russians had any thought of spending the time to set them up.

Man, I can't get over the amount of civilian type trash there is after Russian vehicles get knocked out.

Steve

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1 hour ago, Hapless said:

20 minute walk around of what is apparently an abandoned Russian position near Kharkiv:

Plenty of MTLBs and a few tanks (think he calls them T72-B3s), loads of kit lying around (MANPADS, ATGMs, tank shells etc).

Starts going at about 1:31, tank at 14:19. Also an indicator of how crappy that terrain actually is: obvious linear concealment in open fields, windy as hell and probably freezing too.

I'm not sure which is more distressing: the profusion of white sandbags or the way the cameraman walks around with no apparent regard for booby traps.

Documents of lt.colonel Alexandr Besaplov (this is old documents, were it in rank of mayor, maybe he was promoted befor invasion), commander of 59th tank regiment, BTG of which was defeated in this battle. There was captured HQs of BTGs of 138th MRB and 59th TR. The body of Bespalov is not found yet, many corpes need to identify. Maybe he withdrew, but lost the documents. 

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Edited by Haiduk
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48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In such a situation I doubt very much any surviving Russians had any thought of spending the time to set them up.

Man, I can't get over the amount of civilian type trash there is after Russian vehicles get knocked out.

Steve

So many of these videos strike me the same, especially this one. So much trash around positions and vehicles. Pretty indicative of the low professionalism and slack discipline of the RA. The position, construction and sighting of the defensive positions shows pretty low knowledge, training and experience. 

That was a good video documenting over half a BTG's worth of combat vehicles knocked out, but I think the most informative part is just being able to look over the positions. Shows a real lack of knowledge, skills and abilities. To me that is more of a reflection on a very poor quality NCO and officer cadre than on the troops themselves. I don't know if a good old USMC or USA First Sergeant would survive the stroke, heart attack or apoplexy that they would suffer if they rolled up on their troops occupying this dumpster fire.

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Some results of destroying of Russian 59th tank regiment BTG near Kharkiv

About 50 % of BTG were conscripts. After 12th of March after scanal in Russia about sendng coscripts at the war, they were moved back to Russia. After the battle UKR troops captured chief of artillery of regiment and chief of communication (this is duty fro senior lieutenant rank), several dozens of serviceman was captured. 

For example here is a personnel list documents of the recon element of 59th tank regiment BTG - combined recon unit, composed from platoons of 1st and 2nd recon companies + combined comm squad from comm platoon. 106 men according to list, but in invasion participated only 70. Four men before invasion rjected to participate and didn't sign papers with their agreement of participation in "special military operation" 

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1 hour ago, akd said:

Looks like the tank wasn’t even directly hit. The burst appears to originate from ground next to tank:

image.png.f7447bb23e7248c61778df74bd273a22.png

So, the fragments of 120 mm mortar shell could penetrate side hull armor and set fire fuel or powder charges for tank shells

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Russian Ratnik gear body armor plate resists 5.45PS bullet, but the hole is too deep, our soldier, which posted this photo, says this body armor will not protect from 7.62 (AKM, PKM) and all the more so .308

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Edited by Haiduk
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3 minutes ago, akd said:

 

I’m sure these idiots are doming soldiers to much higher rates of cancer later in life, but could someone really still suffer from acute radiation poisoning in the exclusion zone?

Reportedly they dug trenches in so called Red forest and lived there about month. This place still deadly dangerous to this time. Even if you take a tour in Chernobyl or Prypyat', the guide track you, that you didn't go in the places when to this time enough high level of radoactive pollution.   

Edited by Haiduk
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34 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

For example here is a personnel list documents of the recon element of 59th tank regiment BTG - combined recon unit, composed from platoons of 1st and 2nd recon companies + combined comm squad from comm platoon. 106 men according to list, but in invasion participated only 70. Four men before invasion rjected to participate and didn't sign papers with their agreement of participation in "special military operation"

The problem with having to leave conscripts behind is not fully appreciated by even some of the more informed analysts out there.  I conclude this because almost nobody is talking about this aspect, yet it is very important!

In the West the biggest concern about a military unit is "cohesion".  A unit that loses personnel just before combat does not have time to reestablish cohesion.  Soldiers are performing duties that they are unfamiliar with or are doubling up on duties that are normally done by two guys.  It is not good enough to move personnel around to fill gaps.  It just doesn't work.  Time is needed to get over the shock to cohesion.  Poor quality units need even more time to regain cohesion.

This is one reason why the US Army determined it's personnel replacement system for WW2 was not good.  The system took individual soldiers from a national pool and fed them one at a time into combat units as replacements.  They were often killed in combat before the rest of the unit did as much as remember their names.  There's been a lot written about this from the perspective of the combat units and it is all bad.

What affect does this have on combat?  A frontline unit that loses 10% of its personnel before the first shot is fired is probably equivalent to a combat unit that lost 10% of its personnel in terms of cohesion.  If the magic number for combat effectiveness is 30% loss, then that unit is already a third of the way towards combat effective and it hasn't even gone into combat yet!

I am sure that senior Russian commanders do not understand this concept any more than the average analyst.

Steve

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2 hours ago, Hapless said:

20 minute walk around of what is apparently an abandoned Russian position near Kharkiv:

Plenty of MTLBs and a few tanks (think he calls them T72-B3s), loads of kit lying around (MANPADS, ATGMs, tank shells etc).

Starts going at about 1:31, tank at 14:19. Also an indicator of how crappy that terrain actually is: obvious linear concealment in open fields, windy as hell and probably freezing too.

I'm not sure which is more distressing: the profusion of white sandbags or the way the cameraman walks around with no apparent regard for booby traps.

I was thinking about all the trash too - have to remember these positions have probably been hastily rifled through by UKR forces.

Also why are the sandbags white - are they for use in snow?  Would seem to be pretty counterproductive when there isn't any.

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6 minutes ago, akd said:
I’m sure these idiots are dooming soldiers to much higher rates of cancer later in life, but could someone really still suffer from acute radiation poisoning in the exclusion zone?

I think Haiduk has hit upon the reason.  If you're disturbing highly radioactive soil and breathing it in, you'll probably start suffering from radiation sickness quite quickly.

I just checked the CDC and it does seem this article is describing exactly what happened to these soldiers:

https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/emergencies/ars.htm

Steve

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