How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

16 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke

Sacked: Lieutenant General Sergei Kissel, commander 1st Guards Tank Army

 

Suicided, Col. ??? ???, commander 13th Guards Tank Regiment, 4th Guards Tank Division (see posts above).

he got lucky. Better get sacked than get sniped or bayraktared out of existence.

[Haiduk]

Russian AD in Sevastopol, Fiolent cape. Reportedly fired on UAV... or on the flock of geese from secret US lab. 

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian tanks in Mariupol, probably Leftbank district.

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Holien said:

John IMO you are being a useful Russian stooge once again...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/03/10/twitter-deletes-russian-embassys-posts-calling-an-apparent-pregnant-ukraine-hospital-victim-a-crisis-actor/?sh=6e323ee73c2b

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/60589965

As Womble politely asked you please engage what critical thought process you have

The truth is out there..... (Just not on certain US TV channels...)

 

Guys,

So beyond the obvious competing narratives out there (nazis, bio-weapons, crisis actors etc) let's remember what this entire thing is, an egregious violation.  There has been no, and I mean zero, casus belli established for this invasion. 

People are pointing to the US invasion of Iraq in '03 in some weird "well two wrongs make it ok to kill thousands of civilians", however, the US did take their case to the UN, they were attacking a strongman dictator who had; invaded a neighbor for "reasons", used massive oppression on his own people, and had even employed chemical weapons against civilians.  So we are not even in the same strategic context here as Ukraine; a free democracy that had not even coming close to behaving like Saddam Hussein.

I have stayed out of a lot of these conspiracy theories floating around but even if the wildest ones are true (which I do not believe for a second) and let's say the Ukrainians were employing a combination of recovered nazi-occult and alien technology to make all Russian bears impotent...in the modern world your first response to that is not rolling in 120 BTGs!!  Worse, you cannot back that up with "well they were gently rolling in 120 BTGs"...no such reality exists.  That much metal + ammo + scared teenagers is never going to equal "gentle violation of sovereignty".

We can play the point-counter point game all day and try to gain political points but all of that is noise around the central and incontrovertible fact that Russia illegally invaded another sovereign European nation in a gross violation of sovereignty and global order...this is not "ok", this will never be "ok".

Finally, I know there are theories floating out there that the Russian Restraint can explain the slowness and stalling on the Russian side.  This is abject nonsense.  It is much, much harder to try and do a soft invasion.  The US military tried in Afghanistan and Iraq and they found it nearly impossible to avoid collateral damage and civilian deaths.  I have seen nothing to suggest that Russian ISR and Joint Targeting is so sophisticated and disciplined that they have any idea what they are hitting beyond..."hit there".  This baby hospital thing has been brought up, right sure....how exactly did Russian Joint Targeting know the hospital was empty (which it was not)?  How did Russian C2 know this when they don't even know where most of their own troops are?

So I am going to offer some simple rules that people can chose to adopt or not:

- Precision is hard, incredibly hard.  If your theory depends on greater Russian precision in anyway shape or form stop and think.

- Organization is hard.  If your theory depends on highly organized Russian capability...stop and think.

- Conspiracies are hard, in this day and age nearly impossible.  If your theory is relying on a "big secret"...stop and think.  All western governments leak like a sieve and even the autocratic ones bleed data like a stuck goat.  No government on earth, even NK, has an airtight seal on what information it leaks out.  So if you are relying on a "star chamber" or "black sites"...stop and think.

- If it looks like a Duck, stop calling it a Kitty Cat.  War is incredibly hard so the simplest explanation tends to be the right one.  It is the principle that has actually put this thread and forum out in front.  We have avoided over-analyzing (I know right?!) compared to others chasing some theories.  If Oryx has 297 open source pictures of destroyed/abandoned Russian tanks, well given the UA was outfitted with thousands of next gen ATGMs...it is not a hard squint to see the freakin quacking water fowl.  This is not some photoshop campaign for the ages, the Russians have lost a lot of tanks.  Is it 297, probably not could be more or Orxy might have some double accounting but it is a lot. 

- Assumptions, Factors and Deductions.  All this comes down to Assumptions, Factors (or Facts) and Deductions.  As I tell dead-eyed Majors, "make sure the line between these items is as straight and short as possible".  Make damn sure your Assumptions and Facts stay on speaking terms and then do not under any circumstances let the line between Factors and Deductions turn into a Pollock painting.  War is hard enough, complex enough and weird enough...it does not need your help in any of these areas. 

Go with the god of your choice grognards,  and try and stay out of trouble.

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by The_Capt

[DesertFox]

 

 

[keas66]

Saw a few references to consortiumnews.com . Any "newspaper" with that many glowing stories about Julian Assange and his Wedding  really gets crossed off my list as a reputable news source - . It appears to be a far left wing  , anti-American  ,  Pro-Peace ( at any cost )  propaganda site .  They have a lot of  ( previous ) correspondents  I actually liked in my more radical youth  but really they are presenting an unrealistic , extremist view  - one just as extreme as the radical right .  I would read articles on this site  realizing that . There will be kernels of truth in what they write - but they clearly have an Agenda -   America is Bad ,  America makes Wars , America chooses who to label as the Bad Guys ( right now its the Russians ) . American is really behind everything wrong in the world ...etc etc etc .

[A Canadian Cat]

On 3/24/2022 at 8:32 PM, danfrodo said:

Am i correct in that Putin thought he would still go the G20 meeting?  And that he'd be allowed to enter?  Wow, that is chutzpah!!

It's in Riyadh, would the saudis actually say OK for him to enter their country??

Would it be wise for Putin to leave the country right now?

Perhaps we should actually invite the guy to the G20

[womble]

21 minutes ago, keas66 said:

It appears to be a far left wing 

I would caution against assuming they have any true "left-right" bias. Looks to me like they're just aiming to spread division and polarisation in the "West", by magnifying fears and telling lies that fit confirmation biases. Perhaps once they were crusaders for progressive views, but they're Kremlin/CCP stooges, witting or unwitting, by now.

[Haiduk]

Mariupol. Rare destroyed UKR vehicle - 120 mm SP-mortar BTR-3M2. Less than dozen of these vehicles were produced for National Guard, also 18 BTR-3M1 (82 mm) and 8 BTR-3M2 were exported to Thailand. 

Vehcile on the photo belonged to Azov. One more was spotted recently captured in Hostomel - several of such vehicles were in 1st National Guard brigade

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

Some thoughts about the Russian equipment shortages.

• It is doubtful that the tanks retired were restored to full working order before being mothballed.  Therefore, anything that was broken or poorly maintained at the time of retirement is still there needing to be fixed.  All the issues I'm about to mention are worse as a result.
• Vehicles do NOT like sitting around un-exercised and un-maintained.  Seals necessary for keeping lubricants where they are supposed to be, in particular, don't do well when just sitting still.  Especially anything that is designed with the assumption that it will be in motion.  This is separate from rusting, rotting, and other time/elements problems.
• Rusting, rotting, and other time elements are problems   Even when vehicles are stored inside (and this is not the case with mothball vehicles from what I've seen) rubber parts, in particular, do not age gracefully.  Especially if they have weight on them or are designed to be manipulated.  Think of it like a body's joint staying in one position for many years... no good comes from it!  Aside from the obvious problems we've seen with wheels, there's also things like spark plug cables, wire harnesses, shock absorbers, etc. that just don't do well over time.  Rodents also like to nibble on wiring.
• Moisture is a problem for vehicles sitting around for long periods of time because it is persistent and very patient.  It might take 10-15 years to successfully infiltrate an exhaust system and lay the grounds for rusting a compression ring or bubble a manifold gasket to the point of negatively affecting performance or even operability.  Some of these vehicles have been in cumulative storage for a lot longer than that.
• Preventative maintenance is expensive.  The Russians have shown a lack of investment in that even for their 1st line equipment, so who thinks a bunch of tanks sitting in some 60 year old warehouse are getting the attention they need?
• Many of these vehicles have probably been stripped for certain parts over the years.  Not just for sale on the black market, but to replace Russia's own vehicles or to scavenge for a sale to a Soviet equipped client state.
• None of this is likely to have good record keeping.  Picture trying to sort through 100 vehicles to find the couple that are good enough to overhaul.

In 2014 Ukraine went about overhauling some of its Soviet era stockpiles of tanks.  It was a slow, expensive process.  Months for even the best cherry picked tanks, years for others.  This is not something Russia is going to fix within weeks.

The pictures of very outdated Russian vehicles showing up in Ukraine already is evidence of Russia's replacement problems.  Since these were at least mechanically functional I'd suggest they weren't really retired.  They were probably ones that had not yet been replaced and were sitting around in the motor pool and were simply not used for things like exercises and training.  Unlike the mothball vehicles, these could probably be brought into the field within days or weeks.

In short... all those numbers of "reserves" the Russians have on paper won't do squat for them in this war.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, womble said:

I would caution against assuming they have any true "left-right" bias. Looks to me like they're just aiming to spread division and polarisation in the "West", by magnifying fears and telling lies that fit confirmation biases. Perhaps once they were crusaders for progressive views, but they're Kremlin/CCP stooges, witting or unwitting, by now.

Correct.  Russians fund anything that causes division (generally) and/or supports a specific agenda.  Russia is just as likely to fund a climate change organization as it is a climate change denial organization, depending on circumstances.  For example, funding organizations fighting against the Keystone XL Pipeline in the US to harm the competition and spreading money around to support Nordstream 2 as an environmentally friendly alternative to coal.

Russia doesn't care about ideology, it only cares about power (money = power).

Steve

[Blazing 88's]

JUST NOW!  Oil depot or something hit in Lviv. Putin trying to send a message to Biden in Poland?

Edited March 26, 2022 by Blazing 88's

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not just for sale on the black market

Knowing the post-Soviet reality - exactly for this.

[Haiduk]

MT-LBVM after probably mortar shell direct hit. Or UAV strike

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

Saw this fun exchange on Twitter (paraphrased):

Pentagon states only 1 in 10 tanks in storage with the 4th Tank Division are serviceable

"Wow, and that's supposed to be an elite unit!"

"Meaning the leadership will be better connected. Which means they dare to steal more"

Steve

 

[Kinophile]

13 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

My take on that is they feel a Marine Infantry Battalion is equivalent to their previous armor and big guns.

Can’t say I disagree

Yes...within the unique (clarified?)mission scope that Berger has begun defining, namely a littoral focussed force, rather than the urban assault hammer the Marines have been turned into.

Within that context stripping out 70 ton vehicles makes perfect sense.

I think, in a way, we shouldn't think of the a trial weight of the tank, but of it's entire logistical weight - eg how many 5 ton trucks, forklifts, tractor trailers, etc do you need to supply a single tank. But of an silly effort but could be useful. 

Anyhow.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Kinophile

[MikeyD]

Every day for the past 3-4 days I've read of Russians bombing another oil storage facility. It seems like a new strategy. 'We can take the oil as booty so we're going to deny it to Ukraine.'

[Kinophile]

Re conspiracies - my wife is Polish, escaped the iron Curtain as a child, so her parents were heavily influenced by Soviet paranoia etc. When we met she very regularly repeated conspiracy theories (not too insane, tight wing nonsense, more the THE GOV IS OUT TO GET YOU AND IS BEHND EVERY DAMN BUSH! - which, of course was TRUE in Poland in the 80s. 

Buuut she then grew up in Canada. So, to me, her readiness to jump to a conspiracy was baffling. Eventually I developed a line:

Could this be cause by basic human incompetence and/or laziness?

Disprove that to me First, THEN let's talk about the possibility of a conspiracy.

Because a true conspiracy requires a lot of hard serious dedicated work from a lot of people and I'm sorry, I've worked with a lot of people and a lot of them do not work hard or with dedication.

The VAST, VAST majority do the bare minimum and GTFO home for dinner.

Conspiracies require homework. Who the hell wants to do homework after work!?

This is why so many actual conspiracies quickly fall apart - they're a lot of bloody work and at some point, someone is going to say - fuuuck another goddamn photo to doctor? Goddamit. K, after this last episode of The Batchelorette...

Edited March 26, 2022 by Kinophile

[akd]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Finally, I know there are theories floating out there that the Russian Restraint can explain the slowness and stalling on the Russian side. 

It is total nonsense.  Apartments in Mariupol were being hit within the first 5 hours of the invasion (killing one child).  Russian violence has been totally in proportion to their proximity and ability to deliver it.

‘God has left Mariupol’

Edited March 26, 2022 by akd

[BeondTheGrave]

55 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Some thoughts about the Russian equipment shortages.

• It is doubtful that the tanks retired were restored to full working order before being mothballed.  Therefore, anything that was broken or poorly maintained at the time of retirement is still there needing to be fixed.  All the issues I'm about to mention are worse as a result.
• Vehicles do NOT like sitting around un-exercised and un-maintained.  Seals necessary for keeping lubricants where they are supposed to be, in particular, don't do well when just sitting still.  Especially anything that is designed with the assumption that it will be in motion.  This is separate from rusting, rotting, and other time/elements problems.
• Rusting, rotting, and other time elements are problems   Even when vehicles are stored inside (and this is not the case with mothball vehicles from what I've seen) rubber parts, in particular, do not age gracefully.  Especially if they have weight on them or are designed to be manipulated.  Think of it like a body's joint staying in one position for many years... no good comes from it!  Aside from the obvious problems we've seen with wheels, there's also things like spark plug cables, wire harnesses, shock absorbers, etc. that just don't do well over time.  Rodents also like to nibble on wiring.
• Moisture is a problem for vehicles sitting around for long periods of time because it is persistent and very patient.  It might take 10-15 years to successfully infiltrate an exhaust system and lay the grounds for rusting a compression ring or bubble a manifold gasket to the point of negatively affecting performance or even operability.  Some of these vehicles have been in cumulative storage for a lot longer than that.
• Preventative maintenance is expensive.  The Russians have shown a lack of investment in that even for their 1st line equipment, so who thinks a bunch of tanks sitting in some 60 year old warehouse are getting the attention they need?
• Many of these vehicles have probably been stripped for certain parts over the years.  Not just for sale on the black market, but to replace Russia's own vehicles or to scavenge for a sale to a Soviet equipped client state.
• None of this is likely to have good record keeping.  Picture trying to sort through 100 vehicles to find the couple that are good enough to overhaul.

In 2014 Ukraine went about overhauling some of its Soviet era stockpiles of tanks.  It was a slow, expensive process.  Months for even the best cherry picked tanks, years for others.  This is not something Russia is going to fix within weeks.

The pictures of very outdated Russian vehicles showing up in Ukraine already is evidence of Russia's replacement problems.  Since these were at least mechanically functional I'd suggest they weren't really retired.  They were probably ones that had not yet been replaced and were sitting around in the motor pool and were simply not used for things like exercises and training.  Unlike the mothball vehicles, these could probably be brought into the field within days or weeks.

In short... all those numbers of "reserves" the Russians have on paper won't do squat for them in this war.

Steve

 

And then the vehicles that dont rot away get picked over by looters looking to make a quick buck selling this that or the other. 

 

edit: just saw you mentioned this. Ill leave the post up at least for the tweet/source lol. 

Edited March 26, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Buuut she then grew up in Canada. So, to me, her readiness to jump to a conspiracy was baffling. Eventually I developed a line:

Could this be cause by basic human incompetence and/or laziness?

Disprove that to me First, THEN let's talk about the possibility of a conspiracy.

Occam's Razor is what I always fall back on.  Which is the most simple explanation is most likely to be true.  I also like to think of it in reverse:

The more complex the hypothesis the less likely it is correct.  Look for something simpler and start there.

In the case of the piss-poor performance of the Russian military the answers are all out there and they are VERY simple and VERY provable.  There's no reason to go inventing complex motivations and reasoning for something this blatantly obvious.  Corruption is the root of most of the explanations.

Steve

 

[db_zero]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian tanks in Mariupol, probably Leftbank district.

Looks like this tank crew has taken up the long-standing tradition of adding personal touches to their mount…looks like a slogan painted on the fume extractor.

Don’t know what it says.

[Haiduk]

Reportedly Russians are withdrawing large part of troops from the south of Sumy oblast and, according to agents information, moving them through the Russia territory by railway to other direction - Izium and Siverodonetsk on Donbas. Agents tell about 250 of combat vehciles and artillery pieces and more that 200 trucks and special vehicles. So, this approx 5 BTGs. 

Russians  and LDPR forces suffered heavy losses on that directions, and couldn't complete own objectives. 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Panserjeger]

3 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Looks like this tank crew has taken up the long-standing tradition of adding personal touches to their mount…looks like a slogan painted on the fume extractor.

Don’t know what it says.

Looks like "Kalibri", Caliber ?

[Haiduk]

UKR forces continuing the fighting around occupied Trostianets in Sumy oblast.

They destroyed two 2S19 and captured one, also one BMP-2 and two trucks destroyed