How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Hmm…

 

That "Roma caravan" is likely due to the fact that losing nearly 600 logistical vehicles is not a "minor" inconvenience: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

 

[kraze]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

It's very strange though, because you'd think the Russians would have realised that in their other recent wars. Both about their ammo quality, their truck tires, etc.

Because russians were "fighting" mostly civilians.

It doesn't matter what quality of your troops or their gear is when they get medals for literally massacring unarmed folk.

Edited March 25, 2022 by kraze

[kraze]

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

More cannon fodder captured

 

 

"Brutally sent to war"

If only those poor guys armed with tanks could do something about their situation.

Like resisting, deserting, surrendering, not going to army in the first place.

But instead they were forced by evil EVIL generals to murder, rape and loot civilians.

[Baneman]

May 9 will be fun.

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by Baneman

[akd]

@sburke

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

17 minutes ago, Baneman said:

May 1 will be fun.

9th. Victory Day is May 9th.

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, slysniper said:

basic logic should tell you that, putting oneself in a slow moving, large target piece of equipment, that is noisy and hard to hide is not a way to outsmart your enemy in todays world. Unless tanks can be equipped with defenses that can defeat all weaponry that can be used against them, they are obsolete.

How many of you have noted how difficult it is to visually hide vehicles these days?  Watching drone footage of Russian vehicles DEEP in wooded cover really brings this home.  In the old days any other form of aerial surveillance would likely not have seen them at all, not to mention be able to discern what they are.

As for the concept of replacing IFVs with something better... yes, the war in Ukraine is seeming to reinforce Heinlein's Starship Trooper's model where individual soldiers operate without the need of tactical vehicles.

This is another problem the Russians have right now.  Their gains are so small that once a unit comes into contact with the enemy all further combat is within practical walking distance.

Steve

[Baneman]

Just now, Der Zeitgeist said:

9th. Victory Day is May 9th.

Heh, yes, after I posted, I then looked it up and changed it. But too slow ! 

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

3 minutes ago, Baneman said:

Heh, yes, after I posted, I then looked it up and changed it. But too slow ! 

 

This will be highly significant this year. For Putin, it must be "mission accomplished" in one way or another on that day.

[Panserjeger]

OSINT article using serial numbers of posthumous Order of Courage medals to estimate the number of Russian KIAs during the first week of fighting.

https://informnapalm.org/en/medal-count-osint-analysis-of-real-russian-losses-for-the-first-week-of-hostilities-in-ukraine/

TL;DR, they estimate the Ukrainian number of around 5000 KIA for the first week is pretty accurate.

Edited March 25, 2022 by Panserjeger

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So back to the Capt's qualitative rants, it is incredibly hard to get troops to consistently and reliably get the basics right.  Particularly as combat systems have gotten more complex.  We drill it into them and then have to keep drilling it into them to do the essentials and basic combat skills to keep a very large and complex war machine in operation.  Then when one goes into a warzone or combat arena, you have to work harder as everyone starts to get distracted by stuff, like getting killed.  Weapons maintenance, vehicle maintenance, sanitation and hygiene, mental maintenance,  TTPs/Drills, SOPs, reports and communications are an entire set of skills that anyone in these situations needs to master before we give them specific training within their chosen trade.  We spend billions on this annually and it is the unsexy reality of 90% of the effort to create and sustain a modern military. 

This applies to all of Russia's forces, not just the ground forces.

As has been said many times before, Russia does not have the funding to field a quality military of the size it needs to fight wars of this scale.  I am pretty sure Russian planners have been well aware of this for decades.  The emphasize on presenting a nice looking facade with the bare minimum to keep it looking good is too deliberate a choice for it to be accidental.

That said, I am sure these guys really thought they could handle far more than they can.  Meaning, they might not have believed that they could take on NATO, but they most likely believed anything less than that was crushable.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Panserjeger said:

OSINT article using serial numbers for posthumous Order of Courage medals to estimate the number of Russian KIAs during the first week of fighting.

https://informnapalm.org/en/medal-count-osint-analysis-of-real-russian-losses-for-the-first-week-of-hostilities-in-ukraine/

TL;DR, they estimate the Ukrainian number of around 5000 KIA for the first week is pretty accurate.

Interesting.

We've seen this sort of OPSEC screw ups by the Russians quite frequently.  They try to keep something under wraps and then accidentally reveal it through a clerical error or not recognizing someone can connect the dots.

Back in the 2014/2015 days when Russia was regularly denying they had anything to do with the Donbas, they gave out an award that clearly indicated that the soldier wearing it was involved in fighting in the Donbas.  I can't remember what the screw up was, but it was a subtle detail.

Steve

[Kinophile]

I'm very surprised "The Demise of The Tank" is getting so much traction.

1\ UKR success v. RUS stupidity using a particular weapons system does not mean that system is on the down slope.

2\ UKR success v. RUS forces with truly ****ty C&C, Morale & Logistics does not mean that UKR tactics (or development on) will work against a NATO equivalent.

3\ UKR success with drones v. RUS does not mean drones cannot be countered or will dominate. There are counters in existence/development and I guarantee there will be more very soon. Drones are having their "happy time" because there is no institutionalized counter yet - but there will be.

4\ UKR success with light infantry v. RUS tanks that are NOT protected by APS, have ****ty infantry/armor integration, ****ty tactical ISR (drones), ****ty troops with no tactical initiative/imagination, fighting on foreign soil with no motivation or ideology does not mean their success is the future and the tank in its current form is ultimately doomed.

The tank is an armored mobile platform. The weapons and defences it gets will change, but the concept of a heavily armoured, fast, strong vehicle with heavy comms that can carry the biggest/strongest damn weapon you can get on it is here to stay. Tanks will change, but they're not going anywhere.

UGVs absolutely will become integral to the battlefield, but I would look at it as another tool in the box; I could see an MBT operating a "swarm" of UGVs and drones with an attached 1-2 IFVs and 1 plt of infantry. Each tank operating like a (tactical) carrier strike group.

But even, then, True Tac AI is the weapon that matters, not the vehicle.

 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

UGVs absolutely will become integral to the battlefield, but I would look at it as another tool in the box; I could see an MBT operating a "swarm" of UGVs and drones with an attached 1-2 IFVs and 1 plt of infantry. Each tank operating like a (tactical) carrier strike group

Absolutely plausible; however, at that point we are no longer talking about an MBT.  We are talking about a heavily armored TAC CP that employs a suit of semi-autonomous unmanned systems as its primary weapon.  I really like the tactical land-carrier strike group as some sort of "Grandson of Iron Dome" will also likely integrated. 

The implications of large scale adoption of this are not small.  We will no longer "manoeuvre-to-attrit" we will have to attrit-to-manoeuvre" for one.  We also are redefining military mass, these are fundamental principles.

Jury is still out but it is looking more like "when" than "if" with every war.  A lot will hinge on counter-unmanned, which in the end may very well simply be "more unmanned" as I do not think one can push out enough EM energy to effectively counter and not die in seconds on the modern battlefield.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Alright, enough lurking, long past time to dust off my old forum account and say "hi" and thank all of you contributing this gem of a thread, which is keeping me well ahead of the mainstream media.

WOW!!!!!!!!!  Dude, great to see you after so much time.

4 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Can we just admire the huge leap in technology? No, not ATGM or drone tech. Pah! Who cares about that? No, the all important meme-tech. It has come leaps and bounds since The Great Meme War. The other day I was in the car with my brother in law, who barely even acknowledges the existence of the internet, when my 6 y.o. nephew pipes up. "Look, a tractor!" and I decide to be a smartass and deny it is a tractor. "It cannot be a tractor, it isn't towing a Russian tank behind it" and it even got a laugh from my brother in law. The memes of Russian ineptitude, and SOF-like abilities of Ukrainian farmers even reached him. I was surprised.

I have a huge and growing folder full of memes.  The Russian humiliation from this war is going to be around forever.  And for sure it is very one sided because the Russians don't have much to work with.

4 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Of course, this war isn't all fun and games. I for one deeply lament Steve deciding to put actually making games on the back burner. Not that I can blame him, his new profit making scheme sounds very lucrative:  Cold calling autocrats the world over.

"Hello Mr Maduro, I am calling to let you know we are going to be making a game set in Venezuala"

-Please don't. Here's 5 million dollars to **** off.

"For 5 million more, we will change the setting to Colombia"

We are men of principles, but yeah... if Maduro could clear a $5m payment through the US State Department's sanctions restrictions we'd at least entertain the possibility.  He'd have to pay up front and there would be no refunds if his government collapsed before we finished the project.

4 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Well done, Steve, that is now two countries you have plunged into chaos. If you ever make a game set in the modern Netherlands, I am gonna start packing.

You really have nothing to worry about.  The changing marijuana laws have reduced the benefits for invading the Netherlands.  Wooden shoes and buildings with propellers on them were never all that enticing.

Steve

[panzermartin]

On the army effectiveness. I'm not sure a US force like in 2003 Iraq, would have captured Kharkov, Kiev or Odessa etc in less than a month, facing urban warfare and the same determined UKR defenders. Probably casualties would be way less but ground gains? Not saying the russian army is not poorly led, organized and under motivated but this is the most symmetrical large scale offensive we have witnessed since WW2. I remember how some 23mm ZU stopped dead a large swarm of 40(?l Gunship helicopters inflicting damages in most that put them out of the operation for weeks. And Iraqi army was bombed and sanctioned for a decade and was already crippled in 1991. Iraq, a much smaller country than Ukraine , fell after more than a month. But there were quite a few bloody battles afterwards, like Fallujah etc. ( But maybe the Russians should have studied this war after all).

[Combatintman]

Meanwhile, Putin's Special Representative for Afghanistan rolled into Kabul yesterday hot on the heels of the Chinese Foreign Minister.  Promising all sorts of economic cooperation which followed an announcement earlier in the week that Russia would resume LPG/LNG (media isn't sure which) supplies to Afghanistan which it had previously suspended because there wasn't enough money in it.

Then today, this made me laugh ... (auto-translation from Pashto)

Made me wonder if this was a delivery that was over 40 years late and a metaphor for the cr@ppy management of logistics we're seeing in Ukraine.  The other angle is that if I was in charge I would be sending my military medical supplies to somewhere there is a war involving Russian troops rather than somewhere there isn't a war.

Actually saw this one come in as well, the aircraft flew over our roof at about 1,000 feet around late morning/lunchtime today.

Edited March 25, 2022 by Combatintman

[Kinophile]

@The_Capt sure a Tac Op CP - but if I was a Inf Capt I'd still want a 120mm+ barrel throwing shade down range at whomever is hurting my feelings. And as we all know, even @sburke, one does not mix functions in a platform. 

So you could then have a dedicated TAC CP type...tank...thingy - but you'll still need/want an (integrated) MBT with a dedicated heavy weapon system scaring the knickers off the OF across the valley.

Edited March 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[Phantom Captain]

23 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

On the army effectiveness. I'm not sure a US force like in 2003 Iraq, would have captured Kharkov, Kiev or Odessa etc in less than a month, facing urban warfare and the same determined UKR defenders. Probably casualties would be way less but ground gains? Not saying the russian army is not poorly led, organized and under motivated but this is the most symmetrical large scale offensive we have witnessed since WW2. I remember how some 23mm ZU stopped dead a large swarm of 40(?l Gunship helicopters inflicting damages in most that put them out of the operation for weeks. And Iraqi army was bombed and sanctioned for a decade and was already crippled in 1991. Iraq, a much smaller country than Ukraine , fell after more than a month. But there were quite a few bloody battles afterwards, like Fallujah etc. ( But maybe the Russians should have studied this war after all).

The US wouldn't have tried without first achieving total air superiority though.  

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Panserjeger said:

OSINT article using serial numbers of posthumous Order of Courage medals to estimate the number of Russian KIAs during the first week of fighting.

https://informnapalm.org/en/medal-count-osint-analysis-of-real-russian-losses-for-the-first-week-of-hostilities-in-ukraine/

TL;DR, they estimate the Ukrainian number of around 5000 KIA for the first week is pretty accurate.

Not every killed Russian soldier is presented to this award

[Bil Hardenberger]

UAVs in particular are tough to counter... do I think that the day of the MBT is over?  No, not from what I am seeing... do I think that it will have to evolve to survive?  Of course.. well maybe not the tank itself, but the way it's used tactically and supported, the TO&E of mechanized formations will need to evolve to include unmanned assets, both air and ground, and incorporate their suite of sensors and capabilities into the formation's TTP.

With potentially every squad having a quad-copter, and potentially every squad having loitering munitions too with Platoon HQs and Company HQs also having access to UAS and loitering munitions the proliferation is going to be very tough to counter without some EW means, such as jamming their GPS or command link.  There are indeed other lethal Counter-UAS (CUAS) systems in development, but I don't think anyone has an answer for the sheer numbers of UAVs we are talking about.  Any Electronic jamming defense will become very visible and easily targeted if used.. so it is a dead end answer I think... I can see some Suppress Enemy CUAS UAV missions and dummy loitering UAVs being used a s tactic to clear the way for lethal UAVs.  

Leave no doubt.. unmanned systems are game changing and are changing the face of war... existing systems like the MBT and IFV will probably not be going away anytime soon.. but they and the the organizations that use them will need to evolve.  Militaries better start planning for this now.

Bil 

[Kinophile]

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/russia-fights-against-time/

Sweeney is always a sensible read, for a non-mil source.

[The_Capt]

17 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@The_Capt sure a Tac Op CP - but if I was a Inf Capt I'd still want a 120mm+ barrel throwing shade down range at whomever is hurting my feelings. And as we all know, even @sburke, one does not mix functions in a platform. 

So you could then have a dedicated TAC CP type...tank...thingy - but you'll still need/want an (integrated) MBT with a dedicated heavy weapon system scaring the knickers off the OF across the valley.

So now we enter into the inevitable hybrids and cross-design era that occurs every time these shifts happen.  Steam-sail ships, MG bicycles/armored clown cars. Whatever that Light Attack Concept was back in the 80s.

I have no doubt the MBT will be on the battlefield - we bought a whole bunch of them, but it may very well not be the concept of a "tank" or more importantly "armored warfare" as we understand it.  Just because we stick a 120mm gun on the TAC CP doesn't mean "ah well there we have the tank".  A tank is a sub-system of an entire armored system that is purpose built to do something and deliver an effect.  Once we pull those components out, they become something else.  An extreme example is sticking a kitchen in a tank, is it a tank or an armored kitchen with a gun for self defence - or worlds loudest dinner bell?

And then we will get into the parochial hand wringing that always comes with this much like how the Cavalry went from "decisive shock action" to "tip of the spear recon in force" to "hauling wagon/ logistics" to "expensive heritage pieces" in a couple centuries.  It will be a highly negotiated transition is my point. 

That, or someone comes up with the "AI Lobotomize-Ray" that can sweep unmanned systems from the battlefield and this whole thing has been nothing but an anomaly.  This is the problem with major shifts in military affairs, they are really hard to see until they are already over.

[womble]

24 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@The_Capt sure a Tac Op CP - but if I was a Inf Capt I'd still want a 120mm+ barrel throwing shade down range at whomever is hurting my feelings. And as we all know, even @sburke, one does not mix functions in a platform. 

So you could then have a dedicated TAC CP type...tank...thingy - but you'll still need/want an (integrated) MBT with a dedicated heavy weapon system scaring the knickers off the OF across the valley.

That 120mm siver bullet chucker might well be one of the swarm chassis, rather than an actual, manned, MBT. Sure, you need the APFSDS in your threat projection mix, because your standoff fire-and-forget EFP top-attack missiles might be countered by APS, but if there's no crew, it's one of the "UGV" drones, rather than an MBT as we currently understand it.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

18 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@The_Capt sure a Tac Op CP - but if I was a Inf Capt I'd still want a 120mm+ barrel throwing shade down range at whomever is hurting my feelings. And as we all know, even @sburke, one does not mix functions in a platform. 

So you could then have a dedicated TAC CP type...tank...thingy - but you'll still need/want an (integrated) MBT with a dedicated heavy weapon system scaring the knickers off the OF across the valley.

Hmmm. I am not sure big guns are all that they used to be. These day modern targeting and fusing doodads can make auto-cannons plenty deadly. 120mm HE's "close is good enough" isn't really needed as much as it once was.

 

I am thinking armour of the future is going to be (or at least, should be IMHO) a multi-role vehicle. A large-ish auto-cannon (where is the 50mm there was talk of a few years back?) backed by ATGMs for the vehicle and perhaps the handful of onboard infantry. And its own drone bay. Ideally a drone that aside from recce can also guide an ATGM to an otherwise unseen target.

Unmanned? For patrols, recce, forward supply runs and maybe for tip of the spear stuff with actual humans nearby in support. But there's still so much you need a set of hands for. Who is going to put a thrown track back on a unmanned vehicle?

 

Ultimately though, it's gotta be mechs. Because **** ground pressure, mechs are cool.