How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Taranis]

9 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Hmmm it doesn't seem professional, but does it really damage a shell to be rolled down a little hill like that?

According to me, the shell will not be damage. This is really solid so no problem to let it rolling down. The problem is about the fuze. Sensitive things. That's why they let the shell rolling down with the fuze to the top. It will be better to put them on the shell directly down the hill near the 2S1 to be sure not to endomaged it.

What is the interest to damage the fuze ? You gain few seconds/minutes but the shell doesn't explose. Moreover, logistic is bad. Use well the few you've got. But that is an NATO spirit not a Russian one

A shell whithout fuze is near a dead weight but the fuze is his brain and damaging it's a great risk of accident (premature explosion possible but the main risk is not function properly)

Edited March 25, 2022 by Taranis

[Taranis]

Generally the fuze's security switch off when the fuze/shell reach a certain speed or a certain number of rotation on himself. But some old fuzes (WW1 or sometimes WW2) haven't any security and if you hit it it could explose. I don't know the Russian/Soviet fuzes but I think they generally are basics contrary to NATO ones. In NATO now, we've got electronic fuze that you could programate with a computer (impact, bursting (altitude difference with the ground) or time as you like).

[Bulletpoint]

"Russian missiles failing at high rate - report

Russian missiles are suffering a failure rate as high as 60%, multiple unnamed US officials have claimed in a Reuters report.

The failures could be caused by anything, from inability to launch to failing to explode on impact.

The reported rate, which has not been verified elsewhere, could explain Russia's struggle to maintain momentum in the month-long invasion.

According to the US, Russia has launched at least 1,100 missiles since the war began. They have not said how many hit their targets and whether they successfully detonated."

-BBC

[rocketman]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

"Russian missiles failing at high rate - report

Russian missiles are suffering a failure rate as high as 60%, multiple unnamed US officials have claimed in a Reuters report.

The failures could be caused by anything, from inability to launch to failing to explode on impact.

The reported rate, which has not been verified elsewhere, could explain Russia's struggle to maintain momentum in the month-long invasion.

According to the US, Russia has launched at least 1,100 missiles since the war began. They have not said how many hit their targets and whether they successfully detonated."

-BBC

Wow! If this is correct it is a pretty good measurement of what corruption does to your armed forces.

[Holien]

Ok just seen this and it made me smile.

 

[Bulletpoint]

13 minutes ago, rocketman said:

Wow! If this is correct it is a pretty good measurement of what corruption does to your armed forces.

It's very strange though, because you'd think the Russians would have realised that in their other recent wars. Both about their ammo quality, their truck tires, etc.

[Holien]

8 hours ago, Erwin said:

Regardless whether Putin goes, there is unlikely to be a military solution.  At some point there will be a political settlement.

Some thinking:  "Most analysts think the Ukrainian military will sooner or later crack. It is fighting with all it has all the time, with no respite. Russia can keep reinforcing its front lines with fresh troops.  The question is: What then?

The common assumption is that Moscow will seek to install an obedient government in Kyiv, leaving it to run the west of the country, while annexing a large part of the country east of the Dnipro River. One possibility is that Ukraine’s formal military will melt away and an insurrection will start.

Expert estimates for how many troops would be needed to control and occupy a rebellious Ukraine number upward of 500,000..' 

Erwin I think you need to really engage your critical analysis process and understand what has been happening and as Steve says read this thread and understand. (I suspect too much time watching certain TV news stations who once again have egg on their face pushing lies)

IMO you are soo far from the ballpark that it is embarrassing.

[rocketman]

10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

It's very strange though, because you'd think the Russians would have realised that in their other recent wars. Both about their ammo quality, their truck tires, etc.

But then again they seem to have an uncanny inability to learn from mistakes in this war so that could apply to the previous ones as well. 

[Holien]

8 hours ago, Machor said:

More American volunteers fighting in Ukraine - judging by the voice, this is a different guy than the one Haiduk posted:

 

"All the Fun Stuff to make it a beautiful day"

Hmmm I am not sure he should be there, his tone struck the wrong note with me. I do wonder about some of the volunteers and motives.

Let's hope  the Russians are quickly kicked out so the normal people can get back home and try and rebuild their lives and houses left burning by this war...

[DesertFox]

Yet unconfirmed, however:

 

 

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by DesertFox

[DesertFox]

More cannon fodder captured

 

 

[DesertFox]

Great spirit!

 

 

[Haiduk]

Some about Russian gears... Here captured Russian recons. Four men. One dead, other probably wounded or just surrendered. This guy was captured barefoot - probably he had gumboots and lost them in the mud, when runinig away across the field. Instead the socks he has footcloths (rus. "portianki")

BMP-2 on background is Ukrainian.

 

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian IVECO Rys' of some recon unit and BMP blew up on AT-mines

 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Alright, enough lurking, long past time to dust off my old forum account and say "hi" and thank all of you contributing this gem of a thread, which is keeping me well ahead of the mainstream media.

 

Can we just admire the huge leap in technology? No, not ATGM or drone tech. Pah! Who cares about that? No, the all important meme-tech. It has come leaps and bounds since The Great Meme War. The other day I was in the car with my brother in law, who barely even acknowledges the existence of the internet, when my 6 y.o. nephew pipes up. "Look, a tractor!" and I decide to be a smartass and deny it is a tractor. "It cannot be a tractor, it isn't towing a Russian tank behind it" and it even got a laugh from my brother in law. The memes of Russian ineptitude, and SOF-like abilities of Ukrainian farmers even reached him. I was surprised.

 

Of course, this war isn't all fun and games. I for one deeply lament Steve deciding to put actually making games on the back burner. Not that I can blame him, his new profit making scheme sounds very lucrative:  Cold calling autocrats the world over.

"Hello Mr Maduro, I am calling to let you know we are going to be making a game set in Venezuala"

-Please don't. Here's 5 million dollars to **** off.

"For 5 million more, we will change the setting to Colombia"

 

Well done, Steve, that is now two countries you have plunged into chaos. If you ever make a game set in the modern Netherlands, I am gonna start packing.

Edited March 25, 2022 by Elmar Bijlsma
Schpelling iz heart

[akd]

3 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

I know Steve probably isn't at liberty to say, and I respect that, but that post and the one before it saying that UGVs "might also exist in really good tactical wargames for professionals to figure out how to best utilize them" sure do feel like a tacit acknowledgement that Combat Mission: Future Shock (Highly Classified Pro Edition) exists somewhere out there... 

Goliaths were UGVs.  Just saying…

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Commanderski]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The Different Tyrant would be the result of a coup where the powerful elites depose Putin, not on behalf of the people ("Moscow Spring"), but on behalf of themselves.  If they did that AND agreed to a unilateral withdrawal that would get the West's attention in a positive way.  They would likely overlook all kinds of things they shouldn't.  Far more than they are already trying to overlook.

I also think that this would be a very likely end to the war.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

So much said with one short Tweet'd video:

Steve

Behold a Belgian comedy skit with much the same vibes:

https://www.dumpert.nl/item/100026058_301fb072

Sufficiently low hanging fruit that you English speakers that cannot make heads or tails of a fellow Germanic language should get a chuckle. (to be honest, we Dutch barely understand our southern neighbours either).

"Forget Coca Cola Zero, we have zero cola. 0% sugar, 0% cola."

 

 

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Behold a Belgian comedy skit with much the same vibes:

https://www.dumpert.nl/item/100026058_301fb072

Sufficiently low hanging fruit that you English speakers that cannot make heads or tails of a fellow Germanic language should get a chuckle. (to be honest, we Dutch barely understand our southern neighbours either).

"Forget Coca Cola Zero, we have zero cola. 0% sugar, 0% cola."

 

 

Ice-Pee...

Thanks for that! I spilled my coffee

[Ultradave]

In the second video those shells don't look like they have fuzes on them - blunt tips. But still, you wouldn't treat them like that. Explosions look fake. If that many shells exploded that camera would be toast.

Unfuzed, they aren't much danger. We had truckloads roll over or be involved in vehicle crashes. Fuzes were carried separately in wooden crates and the fuzes added to the rounds at the gun position.

A fuzed round, at least for the US anyway, requires "setback"  (the shock of firing, which is WAY more than any crash or drop) and a couple of rotations, to arm itself, so even dropping fuzed rounds is only likely to break the fuze, as was mentioned.

Dave

Edited March 25, 2022 by Ultradave

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

More cannon fodder captured

 

 

They could've come in peace and been welcomed with bread and salt, but their manners were terrible!

On a separate note, shall be most interested to learn whether or not the Russians need another CAA commander. Did the Red Army, in the course of the GPW lose that many? I find the Russian senior officer losses in the ground forces staggering and the ones to RuAf debilitating, to say the least.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 25, 2022 by John Kettler

[Taranis]

Quote

« Vous avez oublié ce put**n de soutien aérien ! » : des communications radios non sécurisées des forces russes captées par des radioamateurs
La guerre éclair envisagée par Vladimir Poutine pour s’emparer de l’Ukraine a échoué. La résistance de l’armée et des volontaires ukrainiens y est pour beaucoup, mais les difficultés de l’armée russe sur le terrain doivent aussi à leurs propres défaillances.

Dans une vidéo publiée mercredi, le New York Times dévoile les extraits de centaines d’enregistrements captés par des radioamateurs, des spécialistes ou des volontaires à même d’intercepter, avec des récepteurs radio, des échanges diffusés sur des fréquences non sécurisées. Leur contenu ? Des échanges entre les unités de combats russes en Ukraine lors de la bataille de Makariv, à l’ouest de Kiev, fin février. Car l’armée russe, l’une des plus puissantes au monde, utilise des ondes radio publiques – et donc accessibles pour qui veut écouter – pour certaines de ses communications stratégiques sur le champ de bataille.

Ces échanges témoignent à la fois de la désorganisation des forces russes au début du conflit et des conséquences des problèmes logistiques sur l’avancée russe. On y entend les soldats russes dévoiler des informations stratégiques sur l’assaut, comme lorsque ce soldat annonce une attaque des avions de chasse prévue « dans dix minutes », ou sur leurs positions : « On se replie de Motyjyn, on recule. On laisse un MT-LB [véhicule blindé], endommagé », annonce une unité. Ils apportent aussi des preuves que les Russes ciblent délibérément des quartiers résidentiels.

Ces communications non sécurisées témoignent surtout des déboires des forces russes :

YUG-95 : Demande soutien aérien à Lampas, depuis hélicoptère, vous me recevez ?

BURAN-30 : YUG-95, reçu. Je n’arrive pas à joindre Lampas.

YUG-95 : Reçu. Essayez encore, essayez encore. Les gars souffrent.

Une demi-heure plus tard, le même YUG-95 s’adresse de nouveau à BURAN-30 : « Vous avez oublié ce putain de soutien aérien ! Vous avez oublié putain ! »

Les problèmes d’approvisionnement, déjà mis en lumière par les images de chars en panne au bord des routes, transparaissent aussi des captations radio, où les unités déclarent des « besoins urgents de ravitaillement en carburant, eau, nourriture ».

Même des généraux ont, selon le New York Times, utilisé des radios et des téléphones non sécurisés, ce qui a permis aux forces ukrainiennes d’en traquer et d’en tuer au moins un. Ces dernières ont également pu interférer et brouiller les communications russes. Lorsque BURAN-30 demande une voie de repli, c’est ainsi un Ukrainien qui lui répond : « Rentre chez toi Buran, il vaut mieux être un déserteur qu’un fertilisant. »

"You forgot that fu**ing air support!" “: unsecured radio communications of the Russian forces picked up by radio amateurs
The blitzkrieg envisioned by Vladimir Putin to take over Ukraine has failed. The resistance of the Ukrainian army and volunteers has a lot to do with it, but the difficulties of the Russian army on the ground also owe to their own shortcomings.

In a video published on Wednesday, the New York Times reveals extracts from hundreds of recordings captured by radio amateurs, specialists or volunteers able to intercept, with radio receivers, exchanges broadcast on unsecured frequencies. Their content? Exchanges between Russian combat units in Ukraine during the Battle of Makariv, west of kyiv, at the end of February. Because the Russian army, one of the most powerful in the world, uses public radio waves – and therefore accessible to anyone who wants to listen – for some of its strategic communications on the battlefield.

These exchanges testify both to the disorganization of the Russian forces at the start of the conflict and to the consequences of the logistical problems on the Russian advance. We hear the Russian soldiers revealing strategic information about the assault, such as when this soldier announces an attack by fighter planes planned "in ten minutes", or about their positions: "We are withdrawing from Motyjyn, we are retreating. We leave an MT-LB [armored vehicle], damaged, ”announces a unit. They also provide evidence that the Russians deliberately target residential areas.

These unsecured communications testify above all to the setbacks of the Russian forces:

YUG-95: Request air support from Lampas, from helicopter, do you receive me?

BURAN-30: YUG-95, received. I can't reach Lampas.

YUG-95: Received. Try again, try again. The guys are hurting.

Half an hour later, the same YUG-95 speaks again to BURAN-30: “You forgot that fu**ing air support! You fu**ing forgot!»

The supply problems, already highlighted by the images of broken down tanks on the side of the roads, are also reflected in radio recordings, where the units declare “urgent needs for supplies of fuel, water, food”.

Even generals have, according to the New York Times, used unsecured radios and phones, allowing Ukrainian forces to hunt down and kill at least one. The latter were also able to interfere and jam Russian communications. When BURAN-30 asks for a way out, it is thus a Ukrainian who answers him: “Go home Buran, it is better to be a deserter than a fertilizer.»

Source : Le Monde

[John Kettler]

21 minutes ago, Taranis said:

"You forgot that fu**ing air support!" “: unsecured radio communications of the Russian forces picked up by radio amateurs
The blitzkrieg envisioned by Vladimir Putin to take over Ukraine has failed. The resistance of the Ukrainian army and volunteers has a lot to do with it, but the difficulties of the Russian army on the ground also owe to their own shortcomings.

In a video published on Wednesday, the New York Times reveals extracts from hundreds of recordings captured by radio amateurs, specialists or volunteers able to intercept, with radio receivers, exchanges broadcast on unsecured frequencies. Their content? Exchanges between Russian combat units in Ukraine during the Battle of Makariv, west of kyiv, at the end of February. Because the Russian army, one of the most powerful in the world, uses public radio waves – and therefore accessible to anyone who wants to listen – for some of its strategic communications on the battlefield.

These exchanges testify both to the disorganization of the Russian forces at the start of the conflict and to the consequences of the logistical problems on the Russian advance. We hear the Russian soldiers revealing strategic information about the assault, such as when this soldier announces an attack by fighter planes planned "in ten minutes", or about their positions: "We are withdrawing from Motyjyn, we are retreating. We leave an MT-LB [armored vehicle], damaged, ”announces a unit. They also provide evidence that the Russians deliberately target residential areas.

These unsecured communications testify above all to the setbacks of the Russian forces:

YUG-95: Request air support from Lampas, from helicopter, do you receive me?

BURAN-30: YUG-95, received. I can't reach Lampas.

YUG-95: Received. Try again, try again. The guys are hurting.

Half an hour later, the same YUG-95 speaks again to BURAN-30: “You forgot that fu**ing air support! You fu**ing forgot!»

The supply problems, already highlighted by the images of broken down tanks on the side of the roads, are also reflected in radio recordings, where the units declare “urgent needs for supplies of fuel, water, food”.

Even generals have, according to the New York Times, used unsecured radios and phones, allowing Ukrainian forces to hunt down and kill at least one. The latter were also able to interfere and jam Russian communications. When BURAN-30 asks for a way out, it is thus a Ukrainian who answers him: “Go home Buran, it is better to be a deserter than a fertilizer.»

Source : Le Monde

Taranis,

Saw the video and found it both well done and engrossing. Believe you did us a service by posting the transcript to supplement the video. While it lacks the immediacy of the radio intercepts, nor does it include all the distractions in the video, such as watching the signal plot and virtual control panel. Thought the intrusion by someone playing the melody for "Dixie" was priceless.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, rocketman said:

But then again they seem to have an uncanny inability to learn from mistakes in this war so that could apply to the previous ones as well. 

There are many German WW2 sources saying Russians are stubborn and keep making the same mistakes over and over. For example in the Tiger crew manual. I used to think it was just propaganda.