How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

On the Pravda principle, I generally loathe articles that proclaim "The Truth About _______!", especially on fraught topics like this one, but Aris Roussinos has earned my respect for good judgment in past war reporting, so I'm posting this here.

https://unherd.com/2022/03/the-truth-about-ukraines-nazi-militias/

Ukraine is not a Nazi state, but the Ukrainian state’s support — for whatever reasons, valid or otherwise — of neo-Nazi or Nazi-aligned groups makes the country an outlier in Europe. The continent has many extreme Right-wing groups, but only in Ukraine do they possess their own tank and artillery units, with the state’s support.

These militias and their Russian (and Caucasian -- Chechen, Dagestani, Georgian, etc.) counterparts, as well as the racketeers who fund them, will remain key players in East Ukraine in the post armistice environment.  They will be a millstone around the neck of any postwar reconstruction and modernization efforts, foreign or domestic.

I would argue this topic is 'military' as well as 'political', since the next phase of this conflict is likely to resemble Syria or Iraq or post-2010 Chechnya, where powerful local barons vie -- violently -- to seize whatever cash flows -- aid, trade or other -- is available.

It might be worthy of its own thread however....

[akd]

 

[Machor]

14 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR MLRS strike of the forest north of Kyiv, where Russians hide. Bright dots are probably bonfires near which Russian soldiers are warming themselves

 

 

 

Soldiers have warmed themselves around bonfires since the dawn of organized conflict in the Neolithic age. Unless there is British thermal footage of Argentinian troops warming themselves in the Falklands, this may be the first such footage showing an enemy army. Here's hoping we won't get to see 'historic first' footage with mushroom clouds.

[Machor]

8 hours ago, akd said:

This makes more sense based on the visual evidence than Tochka-U or MLRS:

 

FWIW Ukrainian Navy TB2s have cool paintjobs:

[Erwin]

Regardless whether Putin goes, there is unlikely to be a military solution.  At some point there will be a political settlement.

Some thinking:  "Most analysts think the Ukrainian military will sooner or later crack. It is fighting with all it has all the time, with no respite. Russia can keep reinforcing its front lines with fresh troops.  The question is: What then?

The common assumption is that Moscow will seek to install an obedient government in Kyiv, leaving it to run the west of the country, while annexing a large part of the country east of the Dnipro River. One possibility is that Ukraine’s formal military will melt away and an insurrection will start.

Expert estimates for how many troops would be needed to control and occupy a rebellious Ukraine number upward of 500,000..' 

 

 

 

[Machor]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I've already been tested. Result: Incompetencia Majorum, clinically dead.

Sorry to remind you of this, but the DAR where the Forward Observer bested you was epic.  And, as relevant to the ongoing discussion, he beat your Russians without a single Abrams.

[db_zero]

Wow. CNN reports Ukraine is asking for 500 Javelin’s and 500 Stingers a day from the US.

Do we even have that many in stock? 
 

also looks like we’re sending chem/bio detection gear over too-ABC News

Edited March 25, 2022 by db_zero

[Kinophile]

20 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Some thinking:  "Most [realistic] analysts think the Ukrainian [Russian] military will sooner or later crack. It is fighting with all it has all the time, with no respite. Russia [Ukraine] can keep reinforcing its front lines with fresh troops [and a relentless steam of NATO toys].  The question is: What then?

The common assumption is that Moscow will seek to install an obedient [the] government in Kyiv, leaving it to run the west of the country, while [will] annexing [reclaim] a large part [all] of the country east of the Dnipro River. One possibility is that Ukraine [Russia]’s formal military will melt away and an insurrection [internal Russian upheaval] will start.

Expert estimates for how many troops would be needed to control and occupy a rebellious Ukraine number upward of 500,000..' [Ukraine for the Ukrainians].

Fixed that for ya

Personally, I suspect that reclaiming Donbass and giving up Crimea is enough of a save to shove Putin off UKR.

BUT, before formal peace takes hold, Ukraine should trash the Crimean bridge with PGMs, as a final last FU. If they can hit those landing ships they can sure as heck drop-kick that 2nd rate make-work.

Turn the Crimea into a deathly financial albatross around Putin's neck. Plus the joy of destroying such a high-profile project, directly attached to him.

"You want Crimea? Sure! Here! Oh, wait one sec - [BOOM-BOOM-BOOM-BOOM] yes, NOW we're at peace. Go explain to your useful idiots in Sebastapol why you don't have another 225 billion rubles to repair their land bridge with the Motherland.

****er."

Russia isn't the only nation that can communicate with violence.

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[Machor]

41 minutes ago, silverstars said:

Looking at the uniforms of the interviewed soldiers...Anyone know what's up with what looks like an SS Totenkopf patch at 4:10? His friend's "Thor Mit Uns" patch is a bit more amusing.....

 

Good catch! I'm curious about this too.

32 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

On the Pravda principle, I generally loathe articles that proclaim "The Truth About _______!", especially on fraught topics like this one, but Aris Roussinos has earned my respect for good judgment in past war reporting, so I'm posting this here.

https://unherd.com/2022/03/the-truth-about-ukraines-nazi-militias/

Ukraine is not a Nazi state, but the Ukrainian state’s support — for whatever reasons, valid or otherwise — of neo-Nazi or Nazi-aligned groups makes the country an outlier in Europe. The continent has many extreme Right-wing groups, but only in Ukraine do they possess their own tank and artillery units, with the state’s support.

These militias and their Russian (and Caucasian -- Chechen, Dagestani, Georgian, etc.) counterparts, as well as the racketeers who fund them, will remain key players in East Ukraine in the post armistice environment.  They will be a millstone around the neck of any postwar reconstruction and modernization efforts, foreign or domestic.

I would argue this topic is 'military' as well as 'political', since the next phase of this conflict is likely to resemble Syria or Iraq or post-2010 Chechnya, where powerful local barons vie -- violently -- to seize whatever cash flows -- aid, trade or other -- is available.

It might be worthy of its own thread however....

(Assuming your post was in reply to silverstars)

The soldiers in the BBC video are not militiamen; they belong to Ukraine's regular army, said to be the 22nd Motorized Infantry Battalion in the article I linked to earlier. (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60860548 )

[Kinophile]

13 minutes ago, Machor said:

Sorry to remind you of this, but the DAR where the Forward Observer bested you was epic.  And, as relevant to the ongoing discussion, he beat your Russians without a single Abrams.

Well the answer is in the word Russians.

It was just an early foretaste of things to come, really. BFC should really have sat up and taken note, tut tut. 

See, they're the ones you should be beating on, tsk.

 

[Machor]

More American volunteers fighting in Ukraine - judging by the voice, this is a different guy than the one Haiduk posted:

 

[ASL Veteran]

6 minutes ago, Machor said:

More American volunteers fighting in Ukraine - judging by the voice, this is a different guy than the one Haiduk posted:

 

Sounds like he might be from New York City

[ASL Veteran]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Twitter account of US volunteer. Many short videos 

 

He has a slight accent, but not really too distinct.  Maybe from the upper south / midwest like maybe Tennessee?

[akd]

A Marine talks to a Marine about fighting in Ukraine (and they go straight to the potential obsolescence of the tank):

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/american-volunteer-foreign-fighters-ukraine-russia-war/627604/

Edited March 25, 2022 by akd

[danfrodo]

42 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Regardless whether Putin goes, there is unlikely to be a military solution.  At some point there will be a political settlement.

Some thinking:  "Most analysts think the Ukrainian military will sooner or later crack. It is fighting with all it has all the time, with no respite. Russia can keep reinforcing its front lines with fresh troops.  The question is: What then?

The common assumption is that Moscow will seek to install an obedient government in Kyiv, leaving it to run the west of the country, while annexing a large part of the country east of the Dnipro River. One possibility is that Ukraine’s formal military will melt away and an insurrection will start.

Expert estimates for how many troops would be needed to control and occupy a rebellious Ukraine number upward of 500,000..' 

 

 

 

UKR's military will just melt away?  Moscow will install a new gov't in Kyiv?  They can't even reach Kyiv let alone take Kyiv.  RU will soon  be outnumbered in-theater due to UKR militia and reserve forces.  And those forces have lots of next gen weapons.  I guess this assessment is based on what they think RU can do next, despite the strong evidence they are seriously bogged down and bleeding men, equipment, and supplies at an alarming rate.

Interesting take on a situation where UKR is gaining ground on several fronts and widening supply corridors to threatened areas of Chernihiv and Sumy. 

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

UKR's military will just melt away?  Moscow will install a new gov't in Kyiv?  They can't even reach Kyiv let alone take Kyiv.  RU will soon  be outnumbered in-theater due to UKR militia and reserve forces.  And those forces have lots of next gen weapons.  I guess this assessment is based on what they think RU can do next, despite the strong evidence they are seriously bogged down and bleeding men, equipment, and supplies at an alarming rate.

Interesting take on a situation where UKR is gaining ground on several fronts and widening supply corridors to threatened areas of Chernihiv and Sumy. 

The people in Mariupol are fighting to THE LAST PERSON, and doing it bleeping well, too, for people who probably haven't had two meals in the last week. The only thing melting is the Russian army. We won't even discuss the Russians little naval disaster this morning. We ought to tell the Russians they are done and we start launching cruise missiles in eight hours. We aren't brave enough to do that, but as long as NATO keeps shipping ammunition to the Ukrainians, they seem quite able to kill the entire Russian army by the middle of June.

[MikeyD]

I quickly looked up 49th Combined Arms Army after hearing their HQ had been wiped out. Home of the 205th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, 1st Guards Rocket Brigade (Iskander-M), 227 artillery Brigade, and more. At the time the website was last updated the commander was Major General Sergey Sevryukov. Wiping out the command structure for all that is quite the plum.

[Kinophile]

20 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I quickly looked up 49th Combined Arms Army after hearing their HQ had been wiped out. Home of the 205th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, 1st Guards Rocket Brigade (Iskander-M), 227 artillery Brigade, and more. At the time the website was last updated the commander was Major General Sergey Sevryukov. Wiping out the command structure for all that is quite the plum.

Wait, what? Army level HQ? Source?

I have Lt.-Gen. Jakov V. Rezantsev as commander.

Sergey Sevryukov was CO until 2019/

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

Regardless whether Putin goes, there is unlikely to be a military solution.  At some point there will be a political settlement.

Ultimately, of course there will have to be a political settlement.  That's how WW2 ended in both Europe and Japan.

But there will be a military cause for the settlement.  And that cause will likely be the collapse of the Russian military *or* someone finally taking out Putin.  There's been at least a dozen attempts on his life over the past decades, some suspect, and now there is more incentive than ever to give it a shot.  And by more than one power block.

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

Some thinking:  "Most analysts think the Ukrainian military will sooner or later crack. It is fighting with all it has all the time, with no respite. Russia can keep reinforcing its front lines with fresh troops. 

Er... how much of this thread have you been reading?  There's been quite a few of us that have used math, statistics, and rational analysis to kick this into the trash bin.

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

The question is: What then?

This, however, is a valid question.  What will happen after Russia is formally defeated?  It depends greatly on if there's a change of government in Russia.

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

The common assumption is that Moscow will seek to install an obedient government in Kyiv, leaving it to run the west of the country, while annexing a large part of the country east of the Dnipro River. One possibility is that Ukraine’s formal military will melt away and an insurrection will start.

Right, but that's an assumption that was proven wrong almost a month ago.  Moscow has no leverage, so how is this even a possible outcome?

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

Expert estimates for how many troops would be needed to control and occupy a rebellious Ukraine number upward of 500,000..'

500,000 to control eastern Ukraine, perhaps, but the whole of Ukraine?  Laughable even if the current Ukrainian forces vanished into thin air tomorrow.  Nobody, and I mean nobody, has explained where even 100,000 new Russian troops would come from in a timeframe, fully equipped, trained, and in a state of readiness to take on the task of occupation (not to mention fighting).  None.  It's complete fantasy BS with zero grounding in reality.  Russia has a better chance of raising a Zombie Red Army from the corpses of WW2 dead.

OTOH, the Ukrainians are nearing a point where they will *OUTNUMBER* the Russians on the battlefield, on their home turf, and with a winning track record under their belt.  That, unlike the fantasy Russian hordes, is a reality that we can see right here and now.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

Wait, what? Army level HQ?

Source?

Yesterday's Ukrainian General Staff report.  I tried to dig it out of their FB page, but it's a mess trying to find stuff in there.  The info was relayed to me by someone in Kiev who read it.

It should be treated as "unverified, but likely correct".  So far the Ukrainian General Staff hasn't been shown to be wrong about stuff like this.

Steve

[Kinophile]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yesterday's Ukrainian General Staff report.  I tried to dig it out of their FB page, but it's a mess trying to find stuff in there.  The info was relayed to me by someone in Kiev who read it.

It should be treated as "unverified, but likely correct".  So far the Ukrainian General Staff hasn't been shown to be wrong about stuff like this.

Steve

I cant find anything either. There's nothing mentioned in the ISW assessment. Isn't the 49th the main force investing Mariupol? I'd imagine the destruction of that force's HQ would get plenty of attention...

[Kinophile]

It was inevitable...

"both captured by the Ukrainian Army"

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

It was inevitable...

"both captured by the Ukrainian Army"

The Russians are objectively BAD at this whole war thing.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, db_zero said:

Just watch all these people saying UVGs and drones will replace MBTs. In a year or 2 Poland will have 250 M1s. Germany will have more MBTs. 

Yeah, the MBT isn't dead yet.  It's going to take a while for the transition to happen, so until then the MBT will remain king when used against countries that don't have adequate counters to it.  Russia, at the moment, doesn't.

3 hours ago, db_zero said:

I’m not saying there’s going to be thousands of MBTs rolling off the production lines. These days production runs are smaller but the weapons are far more effective. You don’t crank out thousands of P-51 or F-4s like you used to and tanks are no different…

Right, but you can crank out thousands of UGVs.  That's what's going on with UAVs already.

3 hours ago, db_zero said:

In the meantime where’s this UVG so many are predicting? It takes the Pentagon years to get a prototype out and years more of testing. 

Right, which is why the explosion of UAVs on the battlefield has not come from the Pentagon.  They came from the private sector which developed them for commercial purposes.  Self driving vehicles are also coming from the private sector.  And so far, there's a dozen or more UGV vehicles from companies all over the world that are being made by startup companies that may or may not be partnered with larger defense companies.  See further below for evidence of this.

3 hours ago, db_zero said:

I’ve seen all sorts of concepts and some small ones are probably in use but something along the lines that will replace the MBT? That’s  years away and will it be completely autonomous or remote controlled? 

Years away as in 3-5 years, sure, but since nobody is arguing the MBT will go away tomorrow I'm not sure why you bring that up.

The first gen of military fielded UGVs will not be autonomous, they will be remote controlled.  It is likely to stay that way for a very long time as Human judgement is not easily replaced.  It's the same reason why there is not much talk about fully autonomous UAVs, and they are far easier to make than UGVs.

What is likely is that UGVs and UAVs will have "self recovery" AI that will allow a vehicle that is out of contact with its controller to at least try to get back to a position where a signal can be reestablished.

Fully autonomous UGVs are likely to start out as supply carriers that follow assigned routes rather than free ranging vehicles.

3 hours ago, db_zero said:

UAVs we’re extensively used in the Viet-Nam war and people were then lobbying for it to be used in more ways and visionaries were predicting pilots would become obsolete.

Now 48 years later piloted aircraft are still in use and a lot of wars and conflicts fought using the “outdated concept” of manned aircraft.

This is a strawman position.  The technology for UAVs simply did not exist until recently.  So the people that said manned flight's days were numbered back in the 1960s were just clueless.  Similar to how many people thought lasers could be harnessed as weapons when they took up an entire room.  Yet now... lasers are being deployed.

You also seem to be under the impression that UGV development is just starting.  The Pentagon spent $20 Billion on the Future Combat System program that started in 1999.  Like so many other bungled programs, its goals were out of alignment with technological reality of the time.  That and gross program mismanagement.

The US Army just announced they are plowing $45 Billion into the Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle (OMFV) to replace the Bradley.  This is a huge system, not the sort of UGVs I'm talking about, but it's headed in that direction:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/gm-defense-autonomous-tank-us-armed-forces

However, I think the most likely UGVs to hit the battlefields first will come from private sector based ventures that score contracts because they've already achieved some level of success.  For example, the Estonian company Milram developed a series of vehicles back in 2016 and in 2019 was contracted to produce something for (most) of the EU NATO membership:

https://www.c4isrnet.com/unmanned/uas/2016/03/02/estonia-unveils-unmanned-ground-vehicle-themis/

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1091939/estonia-to-lead-eu-s-unmanned-military-vehicle-project-lithuania-opts-out

And an article about this topic from January of this year:

https://www.itssverona.it/the-implementation-of-drone-warfare-in-modern-ground-operations

3 hours ago, db_zero said:

IMO we’re at least 20 years maybe longer away from any sort of limited use of a unmanned replacement for the MBT and between now and then a lot of fighting.

 

I'd say you're off by at least 15 years for "limited use".  They are already in the pipeline.  And they look pretty good in 3D too

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I cant find anything either. There's nothing mentioned in the ISW assessment. Isn't the 49th the main force investing Mariupol? I'd imagine the destruction of that force's HQ would get plenty of attention...

ISW is sometimes a bit behind on details like this, either because they can't verify it or the timing of their report didn't synch with the release of information.

Interestingly, ISW has gone back and revised a bunch of their maps based on newly acquired information about where Russian forces were and weren't at particular times.

Steve