How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Offshoot]

Heh, yes, I should have said claimed.
On the other hand, we do see debris falling from offscreen and what must be a long way above the dock (and nothing going up beforehand) as well as multiple small "explosions" rather than one big one. Or is that how Tochka missiles work?

[rocketman]

38 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

One of the Ropucha landing ships that got out of Berdiansk this morning is apparently sailing around in circles off the coast now. Anyone have any insight in to whether it might be deliberate or indicative of damage?

 

 

Steering could be damaged and jammed in turning in one direction only. Hence the circle movement only.

[Haiduk]

42 minutes ago, akd said:

Okay, for sure then.  The closest apparent “hit” to the destroyed ship appears to be the Tochka booster coming down.

Russian now says about Smerch strike: https://t.me/BattleSailor_13/765

Shortened translation: the strike on the port of Berdiansk was conducted with Smerch MLRS. Our losses and the course of events I know for sure, but it's forbidden to publish them. If MoD of Russia deems it neccessary, it will tell you in the evening 

I think, if this was MLRS, that not Smerch, but it's Ukrainain-developed guided version Vilkha with cluster warhead (Vilkha-R), and that thing, which falls at the end of video this is empty envelop for submunition. Because of Russian AD could intercept Tochka-U on 19th of March over the port, the usage of MLRS guided rocket looks like smart decision - probably it's harder to intercept it. There was one rocket, that says about likely guide variant instead full salvo. 

There are sevral versions of Vilkha rockets in servce:

Vilkha - HE warhead 250 kg and 70 km of range

Vilkha-R - cluster warhead, no info about the range

Vilkha-M - 170 kg warhead and 130 km range 

Also exists Vilkha-M1 and M2 prototypes with 141 and 202 km of range, but they weren't adopted yet.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Haiduk

[Hapless]

34 minutes ago, Probus said:

 

Loving the fuel tanks on the end of the mole there. Nothing to worry about there, seems a totally fine place to hand around unloading other combustibles.

It would be interesting to know what's going on in more detail though. There's a big difference between systemic incompetence and a Bluff Cove type confluence of unfortunate events.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Hapless

[akd]

21 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Heh, yes, I should have said claimed.
On the other hand, we do see debris falling from offscreen and what must be a long way above the dock (and nothing going up beforehand) as well as multiple small "explosions" rather than one big one. Or is that how Tochka missiles work?

If they carry a cluster warhead, then yes.  But this really doesn’t look like the same time as the video taken from the other side of the pier showing the first explosion aboard the ship.  You see nothing in the area where most of the sub-munitions went off in that video.  The video taken from the pier showing the “shot down” Tochka-U body from several days ago corresponds exactly to the booster coming down in this video.

Edited March 24, 2022 by akd

[Sarjen]

Perhaps it was a Switchblade 600

[sburke]

4 hours ago, TheVulture said:

The Ropucha class ship on the outside is later seen getting the hell out of there in one of the videos on the previous page, but the Alligator didn't go anywhere.

Sure it did.  it joined the parade

“Celebration of one month since the beginning of the russian invasion took place in Hell. 15,800 russian soldiers marched in parade,” Ukraine’s Defence Ministry tweeted. “The highlight of the column of military machinery was russian large landing ship ‘Orsk.'”

[sburke]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Wow...just wow.  So this would be like the Iraqi military being able to hit a port in Kuwait from Basra.  This is at the interface of the SLOC and operational LOCs.  This demonstrates that the UA can find and hit the entire operational logistics chain of the Russian invading force.  In fact it calls into question security of other SLOC nodes in Belarus and Russia itself, of course there are likely political constraints when getting into those. 

quiet!  it is all going according to plan.

Note:  Need to find a new place to unload ships.  Current dock is occupied for foreseeable future.

Edited March 24, 2022 by sburke

[DesertFox]

 

 

[akd]

Here is a zoomed clip of the first explosion:

 

[DesertFox]

What if...

 

 

[Fernando]

As for whether the tank is dead or not, I think light infantry with ATGM, would have a difficult time fighting in open terrain like deserts and steppes. 

[db_zero]

2 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:

Perhaps, but then again, if the US was fighting Iran (just a random example) then I think a US force that had tanks would perform much better than a US force that had no tanks because the Iranians would have a lot of trouble dealing with American tanks.  If you simply assume that your opponent has the same capabilities that you have you could end up making yourself more vulnerable to a lesser opponent since all of your assumptions are off.

Iran would be an awful place for armor and resupply would be a real headache. The geography looks to be unsuited for armor. Not sure under what circumstances the US would invade Iran and Iran's ability to project beyond its border is limited. 

Large armor battles are limited to Europe or the Middle East if the situation warranted it, but the Middle East would probably require a long build up period.

Korea has some armor, but much of the country is not suited for armor.

Taiwan would see little if any US heavy tank formations.

Can't see where or why we would fight large battles in Africa and China....hahaha

[akd]

Saw this coming:

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

Saw this coming:

 

I would expect any number of flare ups in the various frozen conflicts that Russia has stoked around its periphery. The Tsar's mailed fist is looking unimpressive. Actually, it seems to be on fire and caught in an unfriendly hydraulic press, so anybody with a beef is going to think now is the time.

[Fernando]

I don't think tanks are an obsolete tool. The key is to use the best tool for the task while all other tools support it. Using mechanized forces with little infantry in crowded terrain makes no sense. Attacking or defending in open terrain with light infantry but little armored support is pointless. Attacking a fortified line with armor and infantry, but little artillery is also meaningless. The Russians aren't using their tanks the right way, and their units are over-armored because of the wrong infantry-to-tank ratio, but that doesn't make the tank a bad tool.

I 

[ASL Veteran]

22 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Iran would be an awful place for armor and resupply would be a real headache. The geography looks to be unsuited for armor. Not sure under what circumstances the US would invade Iran and Iran's ability to project beyond its border is limited. 

Large armor battles are limited to Europe or the Middle East if the situation warranted it, but the Middle East would probably require a long build up period.

Korea has some armor, but much of the country is not suited for armor.

Taiwan would see little if any US heavy tank formations.

Can't see where or why we would fight large battles in Africa and China....hahaha

Invading Iran with nothing but light infantry carrying Javelins would not be very smart.

[akd]

This makes more sense based on the visual evidence than Tochka-U or MLRS:

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by akd

[Probus]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

This makes more sense based on the visual evidence than Tochka-U:

 

First ship destroyed by drone attack?  I bet it was a drone. That would make sense in many ways. 

[keas66]

8 minutes ago, akd said:

This makes more sense based on the visual evidence than Tochka-U or MLRS:

 

The video I have seen makes it look at if it was a cluster munition of some sort or  MLRS - you see multiple impacts around the port  . A TB-2 only has a couple of missiles doesn't it ?

 

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by keas66
added link to twitter vid

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

This makes more sense based on the visual evidence than Tochka-U:

 

I was wondering about this.  None of the videos show a large primary detonation which would suggest a large single warhead.  So that makes it likely as cluster munitions or a smaller munition of some sort.  But it is hard to see, but I cannot make out ICM in the video, they usually have that "sparkles" signature when they hit.  So maybe a smaller PGM of some sort, which does match the TB-2 loadout? 

  

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, Probus said:

First ship destroyed by drone attack?  I bet it was a drone. That would make sense in many ways. 

Could also just be a drunk Russian lighting up a smoke in the ammo storage.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-cargo-ship-drunk-captain-crashes-south-korea-bridge-1348910

[akd]

28 minutes ago, keas66 said:

The video I have seen makes it look at if it was a cluster munition of some sort or  MLRS - you see multiple impacts around the port  . A TB-2 only has a couple of missiles doesn't it ?

 

 

Not the same day. Different weather.  Different time. Different ships.  This was the Tochka-U cluster munition attack on Mar 19 that Russians claimed was shot down in RT propaganda video.  They film the Tochka-U booster remains in the exact spot it is seen falling here.

Here again is the video that shows the initial explosion and following secondaries / fires from today.  You can see nothing happens near the tank farm further up the pier where the majority of the sub-munitions in the video above strike. Also clear that the lighting / weather conditions are completely different:

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by akd

[db_zero]

21 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

Invading Iran with nothing but light infantry carrying Javelins would not be very smart.

Invading Iran would not be smart period. Any President sending US ground forces to invade would need to get their head examined.

[db_zero]

So are we going to start sending shore based SSMs to Ukraine? Norway and other NATO countries have good land based SSMs. I don't know how Putin will react when his ships start getting blown up, especially if its a battle cruiser...