How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

3 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

If they end up using chemical weapons they will probably gas their own troops because they wouldn't manage to inform everyone in time.

Normally I'd go "HAH, Yes, dumb ruskies tramplin on each others feet! Silly piggies".

But if there's one thing these assholes have managed to do consistently "well", it's slaughter defenseless civilians.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

In hindsight we should have done something.  There ARE a lot of good people out there putting out quality analysis, but I think there's room for more.  Especially one that is able to smoothly switch back and forth between tactical and strategic analysis.  However, I think we'd find ourselves relegated to the small slice of informed choir audience as the others out there.  I don't think any of us would get picked up on by the mainstream sources of information.  They're pretty set in their ways.

Steve

What you've done just here is quite good. I suspect lots of us are spreading the word.

[LukeFF]

23 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Why is he wearing a civilian sport jacket? Was he captured while wearing it, or was his uniform ruined or destroyed so the capturing Ukrainians gave him something to wear? 

Being captured while wearing civilian clothing, even over his uniform, allows the Ukraine to execute him as a spy under the Geneva Conventions.

"Ukraine" not "The Ukraine"  

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

On a different take after seeing the Brandenburg gate in Berlin and the "Wall" in the background of that nice gentleman; I take it in the next module we will see the Berlin Brigade, BAOR, Bundeswehr and NVA troops?

[acrashb]

47 minutes ago, Taranis said:

“We have collected information showing that some of their soldiers have suffered (from the cold) and are no longer fit to fight due to frostbite,”

That's astonishing given their history, which everyone here knows ( Hitler's Winter Blunder | Defense Media Network ).  I often told (and still tell  ) my son to "learn from the mistakes of others", in this case especially of others on their own territory.

 

11 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

gas their own troops because they wouldn't manage to inform everyone in time.

Given the lack of maintenance we've seen on $16M anti-air systems (Tunguska 2K22), how could the maintenance of the MOP gear be any better?  Most likely expired filters, dried-out / brittle seals and fabrics.    But this need not be a barrier, as the Russians would gas well away from the front lines, using it as a terror tool rather than combat tool.

 

39 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I do worry about a russian missile strike taking out Zelensky.  I hope UKR has a solid succession plan.

The Speaker of the parliament is next.  After that I understand it gets less clear.  But apparently Western efforts are underway to secure the line of succession, just in case. Ukraine Succession: What Happens If Zelenskyy Is Killed or Captured? (businessinsider.com)

 

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

On a different take after seeing the Brandenburg gate in Berlin and the "Wall" in the background of that nice gentleman; I take it in the next module we will see the Berlin Brigade, BAOR, Bundeswehr and NVA troops?

Is that TheCapt in the picture?  I thought he was like the Lone Ranger or Orville Peck (masked musician) who no one knows who he actually is. 

[Haiduk]

Likely Russian Kh-101 cruise missile, launced from strategic bomber and intercepted yesterday in Mykolaiv oblast

Today was a report that soldiers of 80th air-assault brigade shot down cruide missile over Mykolaiv oblast with Igla MANPAD. There is unkown is this new one or yesterday's case. The missile flew to Kropyvytskyi direction, probably to Kanatovo airfield

Edited March 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

No, no, THIS is him.

Last seen being snarky to a King...

Edited March 22, 2022 by Kinophile

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Is that TheCapt in the picture?  I thought he was like the Lone Ranger or Orville Peck (masked musician) who no one knows who he actually is. 

No that is the Silver Fox who did CMCWs developer/designer video on Slitherine prior to release.  I will not dox him, but to know him is to love him.

[Battlefront.com]

Just thought about this based on some posts above.  We've talked about Russia preparing for a 3 day "victory lap" around Eastern Ukraine.  We've all noted that all of Russia's logistics were based on that concept.  We have seen how bad this flawed assumption was in terms of Russia's plans.

However, what if they had taken over eastern Ukraine in 3 days?  Would things have gone much better for them after?  I mean, where were these soldiers going to be housed?  Does Russia have stocks of food sufficient for months of occupation?  Would they have much better luck keeping their trucks running smoothly even with no enemy activities?

Obviously this is all hypothetical and irrelevant, but it just occurred to me that Russia might have failed at occupation even under the most ideal circumstances.  Now there's a fun thought.

Steve

[akd]

Not sure what is going on here:

Arabs (Syrians?) fighting for Ukraine?

[Kinophile]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

However, what if they had taken over eastern Ukraine in 3 days?  Would things have gone much better for them after?  I mean, where were these soldiers going to be housed?  Does Russia have stocks of food sufficient for months of occupation?  Would they have much better luck keeping their trucks running smoothly even with no enemy activities?

Very simply, they would have pillaged the country. No plan past 3 days implies some measure of living off the country as regular rations/logistics catch up. Certainly if the campaign had been that successful that fast then there would be significant UA infrastructure and logistics available.

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

Not sure what is going on here:

Arabs (Syrians?) fighting for Ukraine?

Very interesting... One guy has blue tape on the arm, but other nothing. Maybe that pro-Ukrainian Chechen fighters. Or some arabs of "Ukrainian Foreign legion"

Edited March 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[hm_stanley]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just thought about this based on some posts above.  We've talked about Russia preparing for a 3 day "victory lap" around Eastern Ukraine.  We've all noted that all of Russia's logistics were based on that concept.  We have seen how bad this flawed assumption was in terms of Russia's plans.

However, what if they had taken over eastern Ukraine in 3 days?  Would things have gone much better for them after?  I mean, where were these soldiers going to be housed?  Does Russia have stocks of food sufficient for months of occupation?  Would they have much better luck keeping their trucks running smoothly even with no enemy activities?

Obviously this is all hypothetical and irrelevant, but it just occurred to me that Russia might have failed at occupation even under the most ideal circumstances.  Now there's a fun thought.

Steve

I'm not sure this was ever the point.  I tend to believe the "cake walk" scenario was run under the assumption that they would swoop in, Rosgvardiya (who have taken serious casualties) takes over with a large contingent of foreign volunteers and they suppress, turn-over and rape Ukraine from Moscow.  All the combat troops come home to a may day parade and the world is minus one more liberal democracy.  There was no plan to "occupy", it was to retire, reset and revamp in the model of the kleptocratic criminal organization of the Russian Federation.  Yanukovych played the toad perfectly and was rewarded for this loyalty with his 2 billion dollar log cabin resort, this would just be rinse, repeat.

[Kinophile]

natch

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by Kinophile

[White2Golf]

48 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

<snip>  Combine that with AFVs operating closed down and just the rigid PITA of performing basic tasks with a bulky suit on, your view of the world being restricted to two pieces of glass, your ears covered by the suit hood and wearing two pairs of gloves.  <snip>

+1k to this.  Doing anything in MOPP 4 is just freaking nuts.  M1 turret is already cramped, now do the things in MOPP 4.   UGH!

[Offshoot]

13 minutes ago, akd said:

Not sure what is going on here:

Arabs (Syrians?) fighting for Ukraine?

Blue armband at ~1:30 so could be the anti-Kadyrov Chechens

Edited March 22, 2022 by Offshoot

[Haiduk]

Russian destroyed R-149 command&control vehicle and Buk

Captured 2S9 Nona

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Very interesting... One guy has blue tape on the arm, but other nothing. Maybe that pro-Ukrainian Chechen fighters. Or some arabs of "Ukrainian Foreign legion"

This tweet maybe has the answer: 

It is the Sheikh Mansur battalio. A lot of history behind. Founded by former members of the Dzhokhar Dudayev Battalion.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1506331299572817926?s=20&t=NQbUYUoeRVi517gLKavIUQ

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And here we need to get into some staff tables and medical modeling.  The answer is always "depends".  The old metric, was the whole thirds thing.  One third out of battle permanently, one third out for something like weeks and then one third minor injuries and rotated back in less than 72-95 hours.  Time frames shift and there are some pretty complicated models out there.  

Further, modern battlefield medicine has also thrown those ratios around a lot.  For example in Afghanistan we were seeing 1:10, one death for every 10 wounded because we could get medical care forward much faster and we also had a lot more medical training in the forward units (e.g. half my guys were TCCC).  However, we sent a lot more people home out of excess caution too, so our "going home" ratio was likely higher.

So what?  Well the Russians are probably in and around WW2 (or maybe worse) so if they are showing 9k dead, then we can extrapolate that another 27k-ish have been hit in some shape or size.  About a third to half of those should be out for good and the rest come back in at some time frame.

Here is another good one that shows the stats for WW 2 on page 339:

https://learning-media.allogy.com/api/v1/pdf/59ca4340-e2f2-4a1d-92d9-ee0398092628/contents

In WW2 for example about 83 percent of those that were hit either died or were so badly hurt they had to be pulled out.  Were as in Iraq and Afghanistan that number was down to 52 percent.  Bottom line, is that of the say 40k who got hit, maybe 1/3 get rotated back in after a set period of time...theoretically.

I saw the original question and figured someone already posted a good answer.  Not surprised to find it was The_Capt

I studied the category of wounded over the course of the last 100 years quite a while ago.  The rule of "thirds" for WW2 WIA is the starting point for me.  A reminder to folks that "out of the war permanently" ranges from debilitating wounds to dying from wounds after evacuation from the battlefield.  In very desperate circumstances some portion of that group might find their way back into the fight, such as with the Volkssturm, but generally not.

Korea saw a significant reduction in the permanent loss category and an increase in the amount of WIA in the mid and short term out of action categories.  Vietnam accelerated it even more.  Aircraft and better organized medical services are credited with this.  More recent times it's shifted even more.  In Afghanistan and Iraq a soldier could be wounded and in less than 24 hours be at a facility in Germany or even the US.  Incredible.

Oh, but that definitely doesn't apply to Russia.  Not even close.

First of all, to get better results you have to have good systems in place.  Based on Russia's planning and assumptions, even if they had such capacity in theory, for sure it isn't operating in practice.  And it's pretty clear that every other "Russia should have" is a "Russia doesn't have" situation, so why would expensive and technically difficult medical treatment logistics be an outlier?  If anything, it's probably worse than some of their other failings.

This means Russia's WIA situation is probably akin to WW2, if not worse.  That means a lot of guys in the light and medium term wounded category get bumped to the next worst condition due to infection, inattentive care, and/or unavailable care.

If we take 10,000 KIA this means roughly 30,000 to 40,000 WIA.  I'd guess that fully 50% of the WIA will not be returning to service and another 25% unlikely to recover sufficiently to get back into service before the war is over.  Which means Ukraine has probably removed upwards around 32,000 - 40,000 Russian soldiers from the war so far.  That's about 10,000 a week!

Steve

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just thought about this based on some posts above.  We've talked about Russia preparing for a 3 day "victory lap" around Eastern Ukraine.  We've all noted that all of Russia's logistics were based on that concept.  We have seen how bad this flawed assumption was in terms of Russia's plans.

However, what if they had taken over eastern Ukraine in 3 days?  Would things have gone much better for them after?  I mean, where were these soldiers going to be housed?  Does Russia have stocks of food sufficient for months of occupation?  Would they have much better luck keeping their trucks running smoothly even with no enemy activities?

Obviously this is all hypothetical and irrelevant, but it just occurred to me that Russia might have failed at occupation even under the most ideal circumstances.  Now there's a fun thought.

Steve

What are you talking about?  They were going to be welcomed by smiling young Ukrainian women holding flowers and their mother's coming out with trays of food, their father's with pitchers of beer.  Then they'd all get these nifty medals and be spoken of with the same reverence as their grandfathers in the great patriotic war. . .  or sumfink

[Commanderski]

14 minutes ago, akd said:

Not sure what is going on here:

That guy with the blue tape on his arm is pretty brave, standing in the open like that.

[Gpig]

I was thinking the same thing. As he was standing there reloading the RPG I was saying "get down, man!"

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

Remember Wali?