Commanderski Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 I don't know if this was posted before but this is great! 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarjen Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 More economic view and forecast for the economy of Russia. TLDR: Russias economy is already at the bottom of the barrel, unable to recover for the next decade. Russia will be Chinas cheap little gas station. Are we financing Putin's war? Military economist explains: (www-lto-de.translate.goog) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 The last independent journalists to leave Mariupol: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-edf7240a9d990e7e3e32f82ca351dede 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) Delete Edited March 21, 2022 by Kinophile 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 What kind of missile hit the Kyiv shopping centre last night? It seems an extraordinarily big explosion based on the damage. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grey_Fox Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Just now, Bulletpoint said: What kind of missile hit the Kyiv shopping centre last night? It seems an extraordinarily big explosion based on the damage. Could have been a sympathetic detonation - there are images of military trucks under cover there, so perhaps it was being used as a munitions depot. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 There are at least 6 publicly visible US/NATO SIGINT and ISR aircraft up on the western and northwestern Belarus borders at the moment. If Lukashenko decides to go for it, it's not going to be a surprise to anyone. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said: Could have been a sympathetic detonation - there are images of military trucks under cover there, so perhaps it was being used as a munitions depot. The actual shopping centre wasn't directly hit though.. it's still "structurally intact", but it's just a standing gutted shell. The explosion seems to have happened outside. If it hit some trucks carrying ammunition, one would expect there to be a big crater in the ground, but there isn't one, as far as I can see from photos and videos. A big thermobaric bomb? Edited March 21, 2022 by Bulletpoint 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 1 hour ago, c3k said: ^^^ That is the crucial part of your cogent analysis. The pure length of the front the Russians have created is insane. They will, no doubt, try to smooth out the lines and reduce the linear distance...but that only changes the scale of the problem, not the problem itself. I have been thinking a lot about the defensives and this war. The UA has conducted what looks like a very dynamic and mobile hybrid-based defence that essentially has brought the Russians to a strategic standstill. They did so through an apparent combination of active resistance in depth, deep raids/strikes, greatly increased reach and lethality and highly empowered C4ISR that spanned well into the public resistance movements. The sense I am getting is that the UA was able to determine where the Russians were and were going fast enough to either pre-position or hand-off to a self synchronizing tactical defence that cut them to pieces. What is really interesting, and resonates, is that like most innovations in warfare it appears emergent. Not to short-change the commanders in the UA, it likely helped the UA was not dug into static positions everywhere because that would have played to Russian mass. By not having a UKR Maginot Line the UA appears to have been able to keep its combat power far more dispersed until they needed to pull it back together. So what? Well at the tactical level the Russian challenge is significant in the defence. The standard approach is to dig in along key/vital terrain in interlocking unit/sub-unit groups. You then secure a rear area for logistical support, the most dangerous threat here is airpower and deep artillery strikes. However, normally those rear areas are outside of ISR (or at least harder for the enemy) and as such artillery leaned towards mass fires for interdiction and then attrition for the attacking force. The defender then employs ISR to try and spot an attacker early and do the same, while enjoying the position of being dug in and well sighted, with AD, obstacles and all the trimmings. Problem here at the tactical level for the Russians are rear-area security is much harder. Even if they remove the local populations, or at least take away their ability to communicate, the UA still has UAVs everywhere and so far the Russians have not demonstrated much in the way of C-UAV, particularly the smaller ISR sets. Add to this the entry of loitering munitions and now the Russians have a real problem trying to create a secure rear area. They could try the US Army Winning the West approach of forts and strongpoints, but these are now vulnerable to UA artillery, and they are easier to find. Could the Russians try the same game as the UA did in the opening phase of this thing? Well technically yes, but I don't get the sense they are set up for it C4ISR-wise, nor training or doctrine. In the UA defence, I am seeing a gold standard of junior officer and NCO performance, and you absolutely need this in order to make this approach work. The Russian reliance on mass does not appear to have the same quality, so trying to do a Russian form of distributed defence is a long shot. This entire thing creates a deeper dilemma for the Russians at the tactical level - how do you take and hold ground when the act of doing so makes you more vulnerable to your opponent than they become to you? I expect the Russians will "dig in" and pound civilian centers, when the the act of doing so makes them very vulnerable to UA c-atks particularly in depth. The Russians brought a machine gun to a swarm fight and I am not sure if they dig that MG into a bunker it gets much better for them 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 55 minutes ago, Sarjen said: More economic view and forecast for the economy of Russia. TLDR: Russias economy is already at the bottom of the barrel, unable to recover for the next decade. Russia will be Chinas cheap little gas station. Are we financing Putin's war? Military economist explains: (www-lto-de.translate.goog) That's a decent summary. "Whatever the Russians send in, the Ukrainian soil swallows it up. Also, the Ukrainians themselves appropriate much of this material and use it against the Russians. Terrible as this is from a human perspective, but from a military perspective, the longer the war lasts, the more Ukraine has an advantage. She doesn't have to win the war, she just has to prolong it." 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) 52 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: The actual shopping centre wasn't directly hit though.. it's still "structurally intact", but it's just a standing gutted shell. The explosion seems to have happened outside. If it hit some trucks carrying ammunition, one would expect there to be a big crater in the ground, but there isn't one, as far as I can see from photos and videos. A big thermobaric bomb? The partially detached Sport Life gym created an overhang parking / loading area, and it looks like this building was targeted directly. Probably some equipment was parked there (as pictured at some point previously) so it couldn’t be observed from overhead (although there are no doubt eyes on the ground in Kyiv doing targeting work for Russia). Edited March 21, 2022 by akd 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Could the Russians try the same game as the UA did in the opening phase of this thing? Well technically yes, but I don't get the sense they are set up for it C4ISR-wise, nor training or doctrine. Yup, - or motivation, basic company skill sets and small unit initiative. Hell, what would the regime narrative be? "We're doing so great, let's just take a seat for a moment, go meet some Ukrainian girls"... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keas66 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 I still am not seeing any discussions around what happens if Putin decides to play Madman and drops a tactical nuke on a Ukrainian City and demands a total surrender . How is that dealt with except by someone on the Russian Side interceding and taking Putin out ? The West / NATO will not respond I am quite sure and Putin will have the world by its balls . 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, keas66 said: I still am not seeing any discussions around what happens if Putin decides to play Madman and drops a tactical nuke on a Ukrainian City and demands a total surrender . How is that dealt with except by someone on the Russian Side interceding and taking Putin out ? The West / NATO will not respond I am quite sure and Putin will have the world by its balls . For starters, his already strained military is going to have to spool up for a conflict with the EU and US (who won't immediately go to war over it but will certainly rush every available force to eastern Europe). There will then be an absolutely ferocious reaction globally to it that will include an immediate and full trade/contact embargo with Russia. China, India, Israel and others will perforce separate completely or more clearly from Moscow. And that's just the immediate reaction. In a sense, Putin is already conducting this sort of campaign in Mariupol. The Ukraine and the world aren't blanching at it but rather increasing aid to the Ukrainian side. Every escalation just makes the moral and political stakes that much more obvious. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, akd said: The partially detached Sport Life gym created an overhand parking / loading area, and it looks like this building was targeted directly. Probably some equipment was parked there (as pictured at some point previously) so it couldn’t be observed from overhead (although there are no doubt eyes on the ground in Kyiv doing targeting work for Russia). Ok so the reason I didn't think the missile had hit the building directly was that it hit another building, and that this building was so completely obliterated that I could not see even traces of it on the photo. I guess there was an ammunitions depot there. I'm surprised such a big structure could be completely blown away like a leaf by the wind and still not leave any crater. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocketman Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, keas66 said: I still am not seeing any discussions around what happens if Putin decides to play Madman and drops a tactical nuke on a Ukrainian City and demands a total surrender . How is that dealt with except by someone on the Russian Side interceding and taking Putin out ? The West / NATO will not respond I am quite sure and Putin will have the world by its balls . I’m also afraid that this scenario is in play if/when Putin faces total military humiliation. To ”save face” and spread fear into all and one who defies him. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocketman Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: Ok so the reason I didn't think the missile had hit the building directly was that it hit another building, and that this building was so completely obliterated that I could not see even traces of it on the photo. I guess there was an ammunitions depot there. I'm surprised such a big structure could be completely blown away like a leaf by the wind and still not leave any crater. I saw reports yesterday of launch of thermobaric rockets. Would those cause this ”gutting” of an entire building without one big crater? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Just now, rocketman said: I saw reports yesterday of launch of thermobaric rockets. Would those cause this ”gutting” of an entire building without one big crater? No, it seems there was another building there, the one with "SPORT LIFE" on the facade in the pic AKD linked to. The strike erased it completely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, John Kettler said: Haiduk, The T-12 Rapira is almost certainly from Category C (lowest readiness and worst equipped) unit stocks. After all, it was the last real ATG the Red Army used. It's no crazier than 1930s BT-7s which sat out the war (in the Far East) being used in AUGUST STORM. Regards, John Kettler Russians to this time have MT-12 in many AT-battlions of own brigades or divisions. Like and Ukrainians. Regarding BMP-1, they belonged to 5th Guard tank brigade of 36th CAA, Ulan-Ude, Buriatia, Far East Military district. This army now fights NW from Kyiv Edited March 21, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocketman Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: No, it seems there was another building there, the one with "SPORT LIFE" on the facade in the pic AKD linked to. The strike erased it completely. Aha, the first version of his post included two identical pics that fooled me. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) 23 minutes ago, keas66 said: I still am not seeing any discussions around what happens if Putin decides to play Madman and drops a tactical nuke on a Ukrainian City and demands a total surrender . How is that dealt with except by someone on the Russian Side interceding and taking Putin out ? The West / NATO will not respond I am quite sure and Putin will have the world by its balls . I think we described this way back, I referred to it as the Nagasaki strategy. A lot of problems with this: - First, I am not sure it would work. Say the tac nuke Mariupol and "demand surrender, or else". Well I am not sure at this point if the UKR PM stood up and declared "unconditional surrender" that the Ukrainian people or the UA would even listen. At best, Russia is now looking at a very long term resistance and occupation it cannot afford. - Blow back from Ukraine may include asymmetric actions within Russia from domestic insurgency/mutiny that may be western backed. Might work, might, not but even the Russian people have a breaking point and this might be near it. It may also result in his military finally bucking or those in power deciding that their interests are better served with Putin in a hole in the ground. - It gives the West permission. By using nuclear weapons Putin throws one of his last cards on western restraint. I am not sure if it leads to a no-fly zone but it does create a forcing function for western leaning in. I am not sure we have a red line in Ukraine but a tac nuke might just do it. I know a lot of people are frustrated by the response from the West ("why aren't we doing X"), that is because the ultimate risks of where this might lead far outweigh any direct actions we might take. A thermonuclear war with Russia is a civilization re-set event, hundreds of millions die immediately, billions on what follows. You can downplay it (it will never happen), or sidestep it (Russian capability is a lie) but the facts are the west will do everything it can to avoid that escalation...unless Russia moves first, then the calculus changes. I am pretty sure that "first strike" options are out there and they won't be theoretical if Putin starts playing fast and loose with nuclear weapons. - Zero chance of normalization with the west, may even alienate the Chinese. Those sanctions will become a new Iron Curtain, which may happen anyway but China is not some rabid dog nation. They are rational in their objectives and strategies, even if we disagree with them. Dropping tactical nuclear weapons is so disruptive and bad for business that it may spoil China's game and they will draw back. - Misunderstanding signals. Lot of fingers on nuclear buttons right now and Putin knows it, because he started it. A nuclear detonation in Ukraine could be how it all starts up, and by "it" I mean the real deal. Putin has to be wondering what the US did with all that SDI technology over the last 30 years and if the nuclear deterrence equation doesn't have his back anymore. He talks tough but that usually points to what he is really afraid of, so employment of nuclear weapons is a really big step. So, no, the nuclear button is not the "easy button" by a long shot, or he already would have pushed it. Edited March 21, 2022 by The_Capt 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 4 hours ago, John Kettler said: Is this the one we saw that was forced down, showed considerable external damage but landed fine on its wheels? Yes. Despite Russians control this area, satellite photo for 18th of March shows Russians didn't take it away for repairing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Yes. Despite Russians control this area, satellite photo for 18th of March shows Russians didn't take it away for repairing. Sounds like its ripe for a 1st Ukrainian Tractor strike. Surely its location can be put in a facebook ad, targeted to any UKR farmers within 5 km. Probably guarded but...equally probably not. Edited March 21, 2022 by Kinophile 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 7 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said: Unless extreme conditioning is in play - e.g. Imperial Japanese Army kind of conditioning - very few military forces ever fights to the last man and bullet when they are aware their LOC is cut. And usually out of necessity - like at Isandhlwana where the British didn't have many options - rather than conviction. I think Steve's master plan needs to play the tactical psychology card. That is 1) make an example that resistance is futile (everyone dies and little to no damage is done to the enemy), and 2) present an off ramp for enemy soldiers to flee or give up. The point is not to kill heaps of them, but to have them stop fighting. The Russian approach in Mariupol seems to take the exact opposite approach. You forgot the three paragraphs of profanity about the Russians. Mariupol justifies the risk of NATO intervention, by any calculus you want to use. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarjen Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Azov took a Raptor High-speed patrol boat out. (Project 03160) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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