How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Your military is kicking their a55.  Agreeing to a ceasefire, and Russian withdrawal and all Russia gets is you don't join NATO is a humiliating defeat for them.  Putin can spin it however he wants but Russia won't be invading anyone for a while.  

So they will invade us in 5 years again.

And it will be even worse because they will learn.

Why do you think the demand to not join a defensive alliance is there?

It's so that they can invade and occupy us. Isn't it obvious?

 

Russia got humiliating defeat in Chechnya. Yeltsin lost the throne because if it.

In 5 years Chechnya burned again under the next guy.

Edited March 16, 2022 by kraze

[akd]

Apparently mayor of Melitopol has been freed in a “special operation.”  He and Zelensky speak (in Russian of course):

 

[sburke]

17 minutes ago, kraze said:

So they will invade us in 5 years again.

And it will be even worse because they will learn.

Why do you think the demand to not join a defensive alliance is there?

It's so that they can invade and occupy us. Isn't it obvious?

 

Russia got humiliating defeat in Chechnya. Yeltsin lost the throne because if it.

In 5 years Chechnya burned again under the next guy.

this is where I differ with you.  In 5 years Russia will still be incapable of attacking Ukraine.  Ukraine will be stronger, Russia will be weaker.  Ukraine is showing RIGHT NOW a defensive alliance wasn't a requirement.  Chechnya isn't Ukraine.  What Russia may want doesn't really matter.  It is already clear that is way beyond their capability.  In 5 years Russia will still be struggling to keep their economy going.  They will be a bit too busy to worry about Ukraine.

Seriously I think they are done.  To refer back to @The_Captpost earlier.  NATO will have to be pivoting to the threat from China.  Russia is just gonna be a rump state that China buys their natural resources on the cheap and probably pays in Yuan no less.

[akd]

Everyone is a forward observer in Ukraine:

 

[Fernando]

OK Ukraine may give up trying to become a NATO member and agree to never deploy nukes in the country, but what about the Donbas and Crimea?  I do not believe that Russia is going to give them up or Ukraine will give up its right to recover them.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Fernando

[dan/california]

 

10 minutes ago, akd said:

Apparently mayor of Melitopol has been freed in a “special operation.”  He and Zelensky speak (in Russian of course):

 

This has to be sign of near complete failure of the Russian force structure doesn't it? Over, and over we keep asking how they can be that incompetent? Gloriously happy this guy is alive and free, can't imagine bigger propaganda win for the Ukrainians, and that is saying something.

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

 Direct security guaranties from US or UK with an artcile of immediate miliatary support in case of new aggression will be better. Zelensky claimed exactly such position.    

And how well will this work to deter Russian aggressions in the future based on the U.S. track record on how well it “protected” Ukraine as it said it would when Ukraine divested it’s nukes? In all honesty, even as a moderate in the U.S. I don’t feel any U.S. promise to protect Ukraine will be worth the paper it’s written on. When a country provides a promise to do something, subsequent political decisions shouldn’t be allowed to override those promises.

[kraze]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

this is where I differ with you.  In 5 years Russia will still be incapable of attacking Ukraine.  Ukraine will be stronger, Russia will be weaker.  Ukraine is showing RIGHT NOW a defensive alliance wasn't a requirement.  Chechnya isn't Ukraine.  What Russia may want doesn't really matter.  It is already clear that is way beyond their capability.  In 5 years Russia will still be struggling to keep their economy going.  They will be a bit too busy to worry about Ukraine.

Seriously I think they are done.  To refer back to @The_Captpost earlier.  NATO will have to be pivoting to the threat from China.  Russia is just gonna be a rump state that China buys their natural resources on the cheap and probably pays in Yuan no less.

It doesn't matter what capabilities of Russia is. Like at all.

Even with their godawful army of inbreds they still dropped a bomb on a civilian shelter with a thousand civilians.

So who cares if next time their army turns into sunflowers before Kherson, not after?

This is Russia. There always will be the next time unless they know they are going against not one, but ten strongest armies and it will be an end of Russia scenario.

[Haiduk]

UKR artillery strike on rear supply and gathering point of 35th Army in 3 km SE from Polis'ke town (20 km from Belarusian border), Kyiv oblast. Data of video on drone camera is today. 16th of March

I wonder what weapon could reach it in about 90+ km from current frontline. Smerch MLRS Smerch/ Vilkha?

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Perhaps so. But for Ukraine this a chance of once of a life time to free itself from the Russians. If they give in to Putin now, they're lost. Zelensky knows this. 

Yep. A lot of people don´t realize that from Putlers point of view this is not only about Ukraine. Here you can see what those fascists really have in mind. Europe needs to be prepared for that and take appropriate steps. One step is to deprive them of all possible means to wage war against neighbours in the foreseeable future.

 

 

[sburke]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

It doesn't matter what capabilities of Russia is. Like at all.

Even with their godawful army of inbreds they still dropped a bomb on a civilian shelter with a thousand civilians.

So who cares if next time their army turns into sunflowers before Kherson, not after?

This is Russia. There always will be the next time unless they know they are going against not one, but ten strongest armies and it will be an end of Russia scenario.

I guess what I don't get is what outcome from this war do you see their being absolutely no Russia or threat?  Let's assume best case scenario

Russian army collapses and is routed.  Russian gov't falls, Putin disappears in some basement never to be seen again.  In the midst of all that Ukraine liberates all occupied territory including Crimea.

So how does that insure Russia will never do a provocative act versus Ukraine (I take invade off the table as they simply will not in any way I can imagine ever be capable of that again).

There is no "end of Russia" scenario unless you are talking genocide.  Russia will still be there.  Weak, but still there.

[kraze]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

Yep. A lot of people don´t realize that from Putlers point of view this is not only about Ukraine. Here you can see what those fascists really have in mind. Europe needs to be prepared for that and take appropriate steps. One step is to deprive them of all possible means to wage war against neighbours in the foreseeable future.

 

 

Good news, everyone.

Every country is leaving NATO as we speak - and will stay neutral to keep Russia calm and peaceful as suggested in this thread for Ukraine to do.

Yes?

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yep. A lot of people don´t realize that from Putlers point of view this is not only about Ukraine. Here you can see what those fascists really have in mind. Europe needs to be prepared for that and take appropriate steps. One step is to deprive them of all possible means to wage war against neighbours in the foreseeable future.

 

 

oh for fk's sake.  What is he going to invade with?  That's like the neighbor's 5 year old threatening to punch me.  They'll never even get to Ukraine's western border. This is just bluster for them to feel powerful.  They aren't.  The emperor isn't wearing any clothes.  Hell there was a guy from Norway here posting about whether his unit might actually have held the line if Russia had invaded as the Russian army is so inept.

 

here is a realistic Russian threat.

Putin Retaliates by Blocking Biden Family Vacations to Moscow (msn.com)

Edited March 16, 2022 by sburke

[DesertFox]

Just now, sburke said:

oh for fk's sake.  What is he going to invade with?  That's like the neighbor's 5 year old threatening to punch me.  

Yeah that is correct and if EU/NATO deprives him of all means to wage war in the future all will be fine, ...possibly. If not, well you can imagine...

[akd]

This is nuts:

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by akd

[kraze]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

I guess what I don't get is what outcome from this war do you see their being absolutely no Russia or threat?  Let's assume best case scenario

Russian army collapses and is routed.  Russian gov't falls, Putin disappears in some basement never to be seen again.  In the midst of all that Ukraine liberates all occupied territory including Crimea.

So how does that insure Russia will never do a provocative act versus Ukraine (I take invade off the table as they simply will not in any way I can imagine ever be capable of that again).

There is no "end of Russia" scenario unless you are talking genocide.  Russia will still be there.  Weak, but still there.

The right scenario is taking back our territories and getting into NATO for protection, while isolating Russia for generations. Iron curtaining them from outside.

Attacking an even stronger NATO for isolated Russia will be a one way ticket to hell. And they know it.

[db_zero]

Even if Ukraine becomes a neutral state it raises a lot of questions.

Who and where does military equipment to replace and rebuilt the military come from? Especially equipment like ADA and aircraft that may not be produced internally.

Russia or the West? 

How would Russia view it if Ukraine wanted to accrue M1 tanks, Patriot Missiles or F-16s?

 

[Aragorn2002]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yep. A lot of people don´t realize that from Putlers point of view this is not only about Ukraine. Here you can see what those fascists really have in mind. Europe needs to be prepared for that and take appropriate steps. One step is to deprive them of all possible means to wage war against neighbours in the foreseeable future.

 

 

Haha.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

oh for fk's sake.  What is he going to invade with?  That's like the neighbor's 5 year old threatening to punch me.  They'll never even get to Ukraine's western border. This is just bluster for them to feel powerful.  They aren't.  The emperor isn't wearing any clothes.  Hell there was a guy from Norway here posting about whether his unit might actually have held the line if Russia had invaded as the Russian army is so inept.

I can tell you for sure that no NATO country is worried about a Russian invasion.  Not now, not in the near future, probably not into the far future.  Of all the things that Putin hadn't planned on doing, I think this is the one that has the worst implications for him if he should happen to survive the aftermath.

Steve

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, db_zero said:

Regardless of who "win" and who "loses" both sides are going to end up losing in one way or another. Ukraine is devastated and faces years of rebuilding. Even if the population that fled returns it looks like the infrastructure and housing for them is a mess. I wouldn't want to venture to guess what the future economic outlook will be.

Russia is going to face continued economic sanctions. Under what conditions they are lifted remains to be seen, but I don't see them being eased anytime soon. Perhaps more important is the "brain drain" in Russia as many people are fleeing Russia if they can. Russia may try to stop this.

Then there is the question of Putin. Does he say or does he go, ether way it going to be hugely disruptive.

India has already indicated a willingness to buy Russian resources at a big discount, but getting the resources to India is going to be a problem and could take months or years to build the infrastructure necessary. Same holds true for China. 

Both may end up buying stakes in Russian companies.

All this taking place in a time when inflation is rising, energy prices high, interest rates set to go higher and odds of recession elevated for the west.

 

Russia will suffer economic sanctions only until it hits the bottom lines of corporations in the west. Then, those corporations will pressure their governments to remove the sanctions.

”The Capitalists will sell us the rope we use to hang them, Nikita Kruchev”

[BlackMoria]

8 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yep. A lot of people don´t realize that from Putlers point of view this is not only about Ukraine. Here you can see what those fascists really have in mind. Europe needs to be prepared for that and take appropriate steps. One step is to deprive them of all possible means to wage war against neighbours in the foreseeable future.

 

 

LOL.   Really.   Pick your preferred answer from NATO, Soloviev.

1.  You mad, bro?  You mad?

2.  Come at me, bro!

3.  You cheeky monkey.  

[sburke]

3 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Russia will suffer economic sanctions only until it hits the bottom lines of corporations in the west. Then, those corporations will pressure their governments to remove the sanctions.

”The Capitalists will sell us the rope we use to hang them, Nikita Kruchev”

nice quote by Nikita, but in the end...  they lost. Badly

I don't think the sanctions are Russia's worst problem.  Nationalizing assets and removing Intellectual property protections is what will keep them isolated.  Western businesses are mostly very risk averse.  Stealing all those planes was not a good long term move.

Edited March 16, 2022 by sburke

[Lethaface]

2 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

LOL.   Really.   Pick your preferred answer from NATO, Soloviev.

1.  You mad, bro?  You mad?

2.  Come at me, bro!

3.  You cheeky monkey.  

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Even if Ukraine becomes a neutral state it raises a lot of questions.

Who and where does military equipment to replace and rebuilt the military come from? Especially equipment like ADA and aircraft that may not be produced internally.

Russia or the West? 

How would Russia view it if Ukraine wanted to accrue M1 tanks, Patriot Missiles or F-16s?

 

Russia? Never. Russia now is enemy over century. Any peace agreement with Russia is just a pause between next war.

[Kinophile]

20 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yep. A lot of people don´t realize that from Putlers point of view this is not only about Ukraine. Here you can see what those fascists really have in mind. Europe needs to be prepared for that and take appropriate steps. One step is to deprive them of all possible means to wage war against neighbours in the foreseeable future.

 

 

RAR RAR RAR "or else we'll invade"!

WITH WHAT?

i'M THINKING 300 TIMES yet.,.nada...

Edited March 16, 2022 by Kinophile