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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 minute ago, Ultradave said:

WHERE would they "acquire nukes" from? They don't have the capability to create them. They have no mechanism to create the needed material for a warhead.

Dave

Yeah - they did have a lot of nuclear weapons before they agreed to relinquish them in return for some 'security guarantees' (which in hindsight looks to be a mistake) but making them on their own seems a stretch.  Even if they could make them, I'm not sure that it wouldn't cause the loss of a lot of international sympathy so politically it would seem like a non-starter.  I would also think that any agreements to 'limit their military' would look like a capitulation.  That doesn't seem like an agreement that Ukraine could make.

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7 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

WHERE would they "acquire nukes" from? They don't have the capability to create them. They have no mechanism to create the needed material for a warhead.

Dave

That doesn't matter to Putin. Just having Ukraine saying "We will never seek to acquire nuclear weapons; it's in our Constitution now," gives him a "victory point" he can spend on internal suppression of dissent. "Look, we have stopped them acquiring nuclear weapons like we said they were trying to!" The fact that the previous statement was utterly groundless detracts not at all from the sense of achievement it will generate, since the audience for the announcement doesn't seem to care how stupid anything Putin says about Ukraine [edit: or NATO] is.

Edited by womble
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3 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

WHERE would they "acquire nukes" from? They don't have the capability to create them. They have no mechanism to create the needed material for a warhead.

Dave

I know it is totally unrealistic of course, but I seem to remember one of the pretexts for invading was to prevent Ukraine from acquiring nukes. So Putin could put it down as a win if it was part of a peace treaty, and for Ukraine it wouldn't matter at all as they have no plans for acquiring nukes anyway.  

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Just now, Panserjeger said:

I know it is totally unrealistic of course, but I seem to remember one of the pretexts for invading was to prevent Ukraine from acquiring nukes. So Putin could put it down as a win if it was part of a peace treaty, and for Ukraine it wouldn't matter at all as they have no plans for acquiring nukes anyway.  

Except that they already had nuclear weapons and signed an agreement to give them up so that doesn't really make a lot of sense.

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18 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

you do know I was joking, right?

don't tell me you thought that post was serious???

obviously, as I have said many times before, this is purely the Ukrainians decision, if they want to fight to the last man, woman and child, it is up to them.

Lol I noticed a lil something with the sun coming up 😉 No worries, it was probably not good choice by me to quote that exact reply.
My reply was more of a continuation of our conversation. Anyway fwiw I didn't interpret your posting as pro Russia at all, more 'humanistic' which is a positive thing in general imo.

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Just now, Panserjeger said:

I know it is totally unrealistic of course, but I seem to remember one of the pretexts for invading was to prevent Ukraine from acquiring nukes. So Putin could put it down as a win if it was part of a peace treaty, and for Ukraine it wouldn't matter at all as they have no plans for acquiring nukes anyway.  

A nonsense pretext, of course. Putin is just making it up after the fact.

And Ukraine is a signatory to the NPT, so they have no need to "give in" and make any further statement. By signing the NPT they already did. And Putin was one of the ones who supposedly guaranteed their integrity when they gave up the Soviet nukes based there. That worked well. 

I'm just pointing out that any discussion by Putin that Ukraine could somehow magically soon imminently develop a nuclear weapon is pure BS. And if for some pretty much unimaginable reason they decided to, we'd know.

Dave

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1 minute ago, ASL Veteran said:

Except that they already had nuclear weapons and signed an agreement to give them up so that doesn't really make a lot of sense.

Well, none of the reasons Putin gave for invading makes much sense to us in the West, but it seems to resonate at home..

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1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

My reply was more of a continuation of our conversation. Anyway fwiw I didn't interpret your posting as pro Russia at all, more 'humanistic' which is a positive thing in general imo.

I am more the cranky old man "get off my lawn" type of guy. 

 

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35 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

@Haiduk As a Ukrainian, what kind of peace settlement would you find acceptable if you were the one to decide at the negotiating table?

I already posted it. Neutral status. No more. Russia can move new canon fodder of course, but soldiers, who fight here in most case alredy lost own combat spirit. They are saying this war is worth than First Chechen. Russian ecomomy will collapse more and more. No any time to pause for Putin. Ukrainans felt a taste of blood, so any who signed acception of Ukraine losing Donbas and Crimea in exchnge for peace even with words "The time will come, when we can change this" have a risk to be hanged on Maidan. 

Edited by Haiduk
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1 minute ago, ASL Veteran said:

Except that they already had nuclear weapons and signed an agreement to give them up so that doesn't really make a lot of sense.

It doesn't have to make sense to us. Just to the people who've already drunk from Putin's bottomless reservoir of Kool Aid. It's an easy thing for Ukraine to concede, since they're giving up the option to do something they had no intention of pursuing anyway, and it's something Putin might want, as it lets him claim one of his "military objectives" (however tenuous the basis for that objective being set in the first place) has been achieved.

As a negotiating point, it's even easier for Ukraine to give up than membership of NATO (given that there's no specific need to be in NATO to be an ally of NATO).

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41 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

I think that if the Ukrainian military fully mobilizes and if Putin continues to refuse to call up Russian reserves, that the Ukrainian army would eventually outnumber the Russian army by a significant margin.  Is that accurate Haiduk?

All question in resourses and volumes of western weapon supply. SAM is more critical.

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The fact is that Russia has already shown that there is no 'security guarantee' that they can sign that would be worth the paper it's written on.  So, I can't see Ukraine agreeing to any deal that 'limits' them in any way in exchange for any security promises that Russia might make.  The only thing any agreement / cease fire would come down to in my mind would be territorial in nature.

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14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Seriously, which part of "do not go into urban areas unsupported" got missed in all those training exercises they ran last year?

It has the air of panic about it . I mean how do you get lost driving around in a MBT  . Are the Russian Navigation systems non-functional ? - Do they not know where they are  ? . Utterly baffling .

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1 minute ago, keas66 said:

It has the air of panic about it . I mean how do you get lost driving around in a MBT  . Are the Russian Navigation systems non-functional ? - Do they not know where they are  ? . Utterly baffling .

yes and no they don't.  I think the Russians have answered those questions repeatedly.  My wife has a better sense of direction and she can get lost a few blocks away from our house.  In fairness her car has a mapping program has us living across the street.

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35 minutes ago, akd said:

If you are referring to the the video I posted, that was taken by Rus mil in civilian car.  Don’t ask me why they are uploading BDA to the web.

Ah ok, my bad. I guess I was so used to the BDA like that coming from Ukrainian forces I assumed it was. With you guys advising there were counterattacks yesterday I thought they had achieved a major stroke. Sucks though, I was all excited about a nice chunk of invaders getting surrounded and wiped out!

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29 minutes ago, akd said:

Not nearly enough Congress.

Russian tanks getting wrecked in Mariupol:

 

Anything less than hundreds of NATO cruise missiles followed by every strike aircraft in Europe is not enough. Something to be said for sinking every Russian ship in the Black Sea, too. I do hope the guy who got out also got to meet the Azov gentlemen personally.

 

 

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UKR forces pushed off enemy from position near the overpass bridge in Stoyanka village - in 7 rm to western city limit. T-72B destroyed. Russians hold positions in forest further on west of Kyiv-Zhytomyr highway and in part of cottadges area on western outskirt of Stoyanka. Video is issued yesterday, so our advance could be 14th of March

Video with English subtitles.

 

Edited by Haiduk
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2f7dd2d-starstreak-getty.jpg

BBC:

The UK's defence secretary has once again rejected President Volodymyr Zelensky's call for a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

Ben Wallace told the BBC it would be a "step too far".

He said "we've been consistent all along, we're not going to take that step".

But Wallace confirmed that Britain is supplying high velocity anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.

Last week he told MPs that he was examining the supply of Starstreak missiles.

Today at a defence ministers meeting in Brussels, Wallace said "we are supplying them. They will go into theatre".

The MoD has not specified how many anti-aircraft missiles are being sent or said how Ukrainian forces will be trained in how to use them

Edited by Haiduk
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