How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

17 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

The analysis is off in regards to the firing points ... here's something I posted elsewhere

The analysis of the firing points is a bit off and possibly because the Google Earth imagery is dated and possibly because they're not old school trained imagery analysts.  As can be seen from the video clip, the pedestrian crossings on Google Earth have gone and a pedestrian underpass has been put in.  The bus stop or whatever it was on the right hand side of the highway has been moved closer to the T junction opposite the garage but the central strip of the highway seems consistent with the Google Earth Imagery.  I had to plot the first obvious NLAW firing point and then measure that to the impact point to give me a scale to work with in order to confirm that the bus stop on the right had moved.  This allowed me then to confirm the position of the second targeted tank.  Anyway ... enough of that, you want to see pictures obviously ...

With regard to your definition of spitting distance further upthread then if you can spit 40m John then yes it is spitting distance.

This is an interesting microcosm of the entire war at this point.  The Russians have lost 1 - confirmed and 2 - damaged (how bad?) MBTs at a cost to the UKR Army of 2-4 men (assuming they did not get away).  My sense is that this is what is going on all over the place.  Been a lot of discussion on the Russian Grind but things like this make me wonder who is "grinding" whom? 

Tactically I have to go with the idea that the Russians thought this was a secure area and this is an admin move (e.g. column, mounted/no defile drills). Problem was (and still is) is that the "frontline" is wherever a Russian is standing on Ukrainian soil at this point.   

The Russians might adapt but in this case that means dismounting infantry and clearing every defile along that highway.  And now a "defile" is any cover out to 4km on either side of that road.  Once they do that they slow down significantly and then infantry become the targets of snipers, mines/tripwires.  

It takes a long time to train build a tank and train a crew, it probably takes a day to train up someone on the UKR side to do this sort of action.  Worse it is a matter of time until the Russians go "free-fire zone/Mongolian" on this whole thing and just start shooting at anything that moves, further losing ground on the narrative as these incidents wind up on Twitter.  There is nothing in this equation that favors the Russians at this point. 

[John Kettler]

2 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I had a question with this video. When the first tank is hit, you see the missile impact somewhere on the upper turret. It seems to penetrate as the tank later brews up. But you can also see something either go through the far side or carry overtop of the tank and impact with some force on the berm or ditch on the far side of the road. Does anyone have a guess as to what that is? A missile fragment? A sabot? No way that an NLAW can make a through and through of a T-72 is there? 

BeondTheGrave,

When the NLAW detonates above the tank, the rest of the missile doesn't cease to exist, for most of the warhead force is expended when the the 2 x SFF/EFP are fired downward into the tank. The rest of the missile fuselage, possibly with the rocket motor still firing, just keeps going, and it's almost certainly that which you saw impact on the far side of the road. If you watch this video when the tank stand-in is engaged, you'll clearly see something emerge from the detonation and still basically parallel to the ground.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Haiduk]

Mariupol

 

[kraze]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I watched some of the footage of filling the mass graves last night.  I'm not going to type what that was like for me.  So just fill in the blanks.

Unfortunately, it is likely this footage will be turned into Russian propaganda "showing" Ukrainian Nazis committing acts of genocide against Russians living in Ukraine.  Misusing footage to create a false narrative is a standard, even central, component of Russian disinformation.

Steve

It really doesn't matter what russians lie about. Like at all. It works only for russians and various kinds of nutjobs abroad that made up their mind about their love for USSR long time ago.

[akd]

13 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

akd,

Those don't look like RPG-7 type warheads to me. They look like these GPW RPG-43 antitank grenades, which penetrate some 97 mm of RHA and have stabilizing streamers. Later model AT hand grenades used parachutes instead of streamers. 

I don’t think so.

[Haiduk]

Ukr artillery in action

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I had a question with this video. When the first tank is hit, you see the missile impact somewhere on the upper turret. It seems to penetrate as the tank later brews up. But you can also see something either go through the far side or carry overtop of the tank and impact with some force on the berm or ditch on the far side of the road. Does anyone have a guess as to what that is? A missile fragment? A sabot? No way that an NLAW can make a through and through of a T-72 is there? 

I was wondering about that too, then I gave it a good thinking. Remember, the missile is designed to explode downward and not 360 deg.  Because of that there's no damaging explosion for maybe... I don't know... 180-220 degrees worth of the missile shell.  Since it isn't being exploded it would remain intact and laws of physics would suggest it would more or less continue along its flight path because "an object in motion tends to stay in motion".  Notice it doesn't go much further than where it detonated.

Steve

[Combatintman]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Tactically I have to go with the idea that the Russians thought this was a secure area and this is an admin move (e.g. column, mounted/no defile drills). Problem was (and still is) is that the "frontline" is wherever a Russian is standing on Ukrainian soil at this point.   

I go with that - as the video points out, the ambush was north of Skybyn where the other footage that I deep dived was taken.  That was posted before this footage which makes it more likely that the Skybyn engagement happened before this one - although of course that cannot be guaranteed.  However if it is the case then yeah I figure that the column in this village were working on the premise that it was safeish as troops had gone through beforehand.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, kraze said:

It really doesn't matter what russians lie about. Like at all. It works only for russians and various kinds of nutjobs abroad that made up their mind about their love for USSR long time ago.

Yes, this is true.  The problem is that we (meaning well informed people) are likely going to have to see this disinformation for many years, if not decades.  We've banned several people from our Forum that are still pushing crap like this that was debunked 8 years ago.

Disinformation is like herpes.  There are treatments for it, but no cure.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Combatintman said:

I go with that - as the video points out, the ambush was north of Skybyn where the other footage that I deep dived was taken.  That was posted before this footage which makes it more likely that the Skybyn engagement happened before this one - although of course that cannot be guaranteed.  However if it is the case then yeah I figure that the column in this village were working on the premise that it was safeish as troops had gone through beforehand.

I agree with both you and The_Capt.  The lesson the Russians need to learn, and learn fast, is that there is no such thing as a "safeish" area.  With the increasing amounts of pissed off and well armed Ukrainians looking for something to blow up, the concept of "safeish" is probably not going to last long.

Steve

[akd]

CAUTION. GRAPHIC. Another Ka-52 down:

 

[Hister]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

Here's my analysis:

Wikipedia lists the following details

Taking that speed and those timings, that's about 35km through Romanian airspace, 470km through Hungarian and 80km through Croatia, ending at Zagreb. The Tu-141 has a range of around 1000km, although that looks rounded off and is also going to depend on weather conditions etc.

Taking all that at face value, 1000km in a straight line doesn't put it anywhere inside Ukraine that Russia could have launched it. Vinnytsia is about as far into Ukraine. Since it is essentially a cruise-missile it doesn't have to travel in a straight line though, but obviously that gives it the furthest range. Transnistria might just about be a possibility if you definitely want it to be a Russian launch, but it looks far more likely that it was Ukrainian.

Waw, thank you so much for this calculation!!

[John Kettler]

 

 

 

Unfortunately, the material at both links is in Russian. What intrigues me about this is whether or not the text really says 45th Spetsnaz Brigade, since I was given to understand the word "spetsnaz" was no longer used for Russian units with that job. If the report is correct, it means that not only were the elite VDV troops wiped out at Hostomel, but the elite of the elite within the VDV, the SSO/Spetsnaz. And, of course, the Air Assault troops are also a bigger deal than the Motostrelki.

 

 

 

 

 

Rob Lee

 

@RALee85

·

10h

 

Apparent confirmation that the VDV's 45th Spetsnaz Brigade and 31st Air Assault Brigade took part in the air assault operation on Hostomel on Feb 24. Andrey Chernyshev from the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade was awarded the Order of Courage. https://vk.com/russia_desant?w=wall-106160452_225305&z=photo-106160452_457351196%2Falbum-106160452_00%2Frev… https://yandex.ru/turbo/tvzvezda.ru/s/news/20223111152-JPyhM.html…

 

 

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

Looks like the invasion of Ukraine has gotten the Poles' undivided attention!
 

 

Doge

 

@IntelDoge

·

16h

 

The Polish lower house of Parliament has approved a new law to increase the size of the military. It will spend 3% of the Polish GDP on defense versus 2%, increase the amount of soldiers from 110k to 250k, and will form a territorial defense unit with approximately 50,000 troops.

Haiduk,

Have you addressed this one already or can tell us specifics regarding it?

AlexandruC4

 

@AlexandruC4

·

19h

 

BREAKING: #Ukraine forces destroyed #Russia'n column near Chuguiv SE of #Kharkiv acc Oleg Synegubov, the head of the Kharkiv OVA

 

This is brutal, priceless and funny all in one. Summary: If you want effective air defenses using Russian AD weaponry, use Ukrainian crews!

https://seapowermagazine.org/russian-air-defenses-working-well-when-operated-by-ukrainians-acc-chief-says/

Latest update from this outfit. Click to expand map.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[John Kettler]

Russian tanks without apparent infantry support near Mariupol. Note impromptu barricade, but it looks as if the tires weren't flattened on the buses. Pic won't post and display straight up or via Other Media, but it works if you click the link.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1502677081880158215/photo/1

Craig's observation ref Russian use of tanks in MOUT is extremely acerbic.
 

Craig

 

@CraigM_Regan

 

Replying to

@Osinttechnical

still no infantry... just armor. RU at this point is trading a tank for an AT rocket. "UA will eventually run out of ammo"... just amazing how badly RU fights.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[db_zero]

Apparently there was a study done regarding the long term effect of eating just MRE's.The military and the entire United States Department of Defense recommends the light use of MREs, no more than a few days in a row.

A test was done on subjects who ate MREs for 21 days straight. Severe constipation, sometimes alternating with severe diarrhea often resulted.

"This poor fool ate two MREs a day for 21 days and lived to tell the tale. He reports bouncing back and forth between a bloated, sweaty constipation and gut-wrenching diarrhea. This is because a normal person’s digestive system is not used to the nutritional makeup of an MRE."

Even if that’s not enough to scare you off, there is some evidence to suggest that severe constipation can lead to death in certain cases. The basic gist is that straining while taking a poop can actually set off a heart attack because of the stress placed on your body.

Another terrifying possibility is a perforated bowel, which can lead to your undigested MRE leaking into your body’s cavities and causing septic shock. While this mostly happens to the sick and elderly, it’s not something I would toy around with.

Another potential danger is the shelf life of an MRE is relatively short, much shorter than many other emergency foods. It lasts only up to 9 months in hot conditions. So if you choose to store MREs for disaster-preparedness, be sure to do so in a cool, dry place. If your MRE has expired, throw it out.

Might be time for the Ukrainians to start targeting the field kitchens.

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by db_zero

[The Steppenwulf]

BREAKING: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergie Ryabkov, says Russia now considers arms supplies to UKR forces as legitimate military targets.

How does that work? I mean any arms within UKR border are already legitimate targets, and I don't think Russia has the military capacity to attack anything beyond Ukraine's borders. It's tempting to read this as another empty threat to the west and actually betrays frustration with their military situation. 

Edited March 12, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[John Kettler]

4 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Apparently there was a study done regarding the long term effect of eating just MRE's.The military and the entire United States Department of Defense recommends the light use of MREs, no more than a few days in a row.

A test was done on subjects who ate MREs for 21 days straight. Severe constipation, sometimes alternating with severe diarrhea often resulted.

"This poor fool ate two MREs a day for 21 days and lived to tell the tale. He reports bouncing back and forth between a bloated, sweaty constipation and gut-wrenching diarrhea. This is because a normal person’s digestive system is not used to the nutritional makeup of an MRE."

Even if that’s not enough to scare you off, there is some evidence to suggest that severe constipation can lead to death in certain cases. The basic gist is that straining while taking a poop can actually set off a heart attack because of the stress placed on your body.

Another terrifying possibility is a perforated bowel, which can lead to your undigested MRE leaking into your body’s cavities and causing septic shock. While this mostly happens to the sick and elderly, it’s not something I would toy around with.

Another potential danger is the shelf life of an MRE is relatively short, much shorter than many other emergency foods. It lasts only up to 9 months in hot conditions. So if you choose to store MREs for disaster-preparedness, be sure to do so in a cool, dry place. If your MRE has expired, throw it out.

Might be time for the Ukrainians to start targeting the field kitchens.

 

db-zero,

Wow and a real attention-getter for survivalists and preppers.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Armorgunner]

30 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

 

 

 

Unfortunately, the material at both links is in Russian. What intrigues me about this is whether or not the text really says 45th Spetsnaz Brigade, since I was given to understand the word "spetsnaz" was no longer used for Russian units with that job. If the report is correct, it means that not only were the elite VDV troops wiped out at Hostomel, but the elite of the elite within the VDV, the SSO/Spetsnaz. And, of course, the Air Assault troops are also a bigger deal than the Motostrelki.

 

 

 

 

 

Rob Lee

 

@RALee85

·

10h

 

Apparent confirmation that the VDV's 45th Spetsnaz Brigade and 31st Air Assault Brigade took part in the air assault operation on Hostomel on Feb 24. Andrey Chernyshev from the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade was awarded the Order of Courage. https://vk.com/russia_desant?w=wall-106160452_225305&z=photo-106160452_457351196%2Falbum-106160452_00%2Frev… https://yandex.ru/turbo/tvzvezda.ru/s/news/20223111152-JPyhM.html…

 

 

Regards,

John Kettler

The 45th separate Airborne reconnaissance Rgt, of the VDV. Became the VDV 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, in the last few years.

 

Edit: This makes me confused tho https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/45-abn.htm

Edited March 12, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Splinty]

13 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Apparently there was a study done regarding the long term effect of eating just MRE's.The military and the entire United States Department of Defense recommends the light use of MREs, no more than a few days in a row.

A test was done on subjects who ate MREs for 21 days straight. Severe constipation, sometimes alternating with severe diarrhea often resulted.

"This poor fool ate two MREs a day for 21 days and lived to tell the tale. He reports bouncing back and forth between a bloated, sweaty constipation and gut-wrenching diarrhea. This is because a normal person’s digestive system is not used to the nutritional makeup of an MRE."

Even if that’s not enough to scare you off, there is some evidence to suggest that severe constipation can lead to death in certain cases. The basic gist is that straining while taking a poop can actually set off a heart attack because of the stress placed on your body.

Another terrifying possibility is a perforated bowel, which can lead to your undigested MRE leaking into your body’s cavities and causing septic shock. While this mostly happens to the sick and elderly, it’s not something I would toy around with.

Another potential danger is the shelf life of an MRE is relatively short, much shorter than many other emergency foods. It lasts only up to 9 months in hot conditions. So if you choose to store MREs for disaster-preparedness, be sure to do so in a cool, dry place. If your MRE has expired, throw it out.

 

Even during Desert Shield we only ate one MRE per day, Breakfast and dinner were always hot chow from the mess trailer. We all understood what a steady diet of only MREs could do to one's digestive system. When the ground war kicked off our diet became MREs only for obvious reasons, but even then all of us had stocked on real food sent from home in care packages. Chef Boyardee saved my gut from too many MREs! lol

Edited March 12, 2022 by Splinty

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

This is like ostfront all over again. Russians advancing vs tactically superior, better organized and equipped pockets of defenders that inflict heavy losses on them but ultimately withdraw under sheer numbers and mass artillery firepower. Germans couldn't find an antidote against the massive use of Soviet artillery,it's the same story. 

Except that the partisans are fighting on the other side of the conflict and have the ability to take on and defeat tank brigades.

[keas66]

18 minutes ago, The Steppenwulf said:

BREAKING: Russian foreign minister Sergie Ryabkov says Russia now considers arms supplies to UKR forces as legitimate military targets.

How does that work? I mean any arms within UKR border are already legitimate targets, and I don't think Russia has the military capacity to attack anything beyond Ukraine's borders. It's tempting to read this as another empty threat to the west and actually betrays frustration with their military situation. 

Well attacking NATO Supply trucks or planes in NATO space would be a  pretty big escalation for the Russians so I assume its just bluff ? . I mean if they wanted to go that approach  I imagine that would trigger  a NATO response . If they are talking about targeting supply routes inside Ukraine then I presume that would be tasks already on the local commanders list of things to do  , right after  finding a secure base of operations and surrounding Kiev .

[John Kettler]

Apparently, the Russians are using Krasnopol series precision munitions on targets near Kviv, and Russian authorities are censoring the weapon image in the first video and the data overlay on the drone video.
 

Try as I might, I can't get even a still to stay up of the Russian drone video showing a Krasnopol strike near Kviv.

@RALee85

· 20m

The Russian MoD published a video likely taken by an Orlan-10 UAV reportedly showing Krasnopol laser-guided artillery strikes in Kyiv Oblast. https://t.me/mod_russia_en/144…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0:18

23.2K views

 

Regards,

John. Kettler

 

11:33 AM · Mar 12, 2022·Twitter Web App
 

 

23.2K views

 

 

11:33 AM · Mar 12, 2022·Twitter Web App

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[akd]

4 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Well attacking NATO Supply trucks or planes in NATO space would be a  pretty big escalation for the Russians so I assume its just bluff ? . I mean if they wanted to go that approach  I imagine that would trigger  a NATO response . If they are talking about targeting supply routes inside Ukraine then I presume that would be tasks already on the local commanders list of things to do  , right after  finding a secure base of operations and surrounding Kiev .

Probably they want to bomb some refugee columns and then say NATO made them do it.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, akd said:

CAUTION. GRAPHIC. Another Ka-52 down:

 

Skadovsk town area, Kherson oblast. Reportedly even two helicopters was shot down - and captured wounded pilot is from the second helicopter of unidentified type. But maybe wrong information.

Lost Ka-52 is from 55th Separate helicopter regiment, Korenovsk airfield, Krasnodar's krai.

Reportedly Russian jet shot down over Rubizhe, Luhansk oblast