How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Fenris]

Drone footage

 

[Fenris]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

If I understand that correctly that is the Territorial Army consisting out of ordinary men, farmers, clerks etc. Mean age aprox. above 40 years who did this feat. The russians are done for. No way they can turn this mess around anymore.

 

 

There's some film footage as well

 

[Fenris]

Edit - DesertFox already posted the truck in the mud.

Have we seen this one, drone footage of AFV in urban area being hit

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Fenris

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a PERFECT example of why military readiness is so expensive.  When you produce something with a shelf life, like food, it is either consumed and replaced or it needs to be thrown out and replaced.  Either way, it needs to be replaced.

Picture a situation where the Russian Army, through corruption or just bad planning, purchased VASTLY more MREs than it needed.  They sat on a shelf somewhere and either the Army decided to not spend the money to replace them or the money for the replacements went into people's pockets.  Either way, the shelves looked stocked and ready for war when in fact they were not.

Steve

Honestly, expiration dates that are five years ago, don’t mean much. When I was going through infantry training in 1969, were eating C-rations that were packaged in 1945. The cigarettes (four in every accessory package) were Marlboros that were so old they didn’t have filters and were so dry they flashed to ash as soon as you lit them. Those “rats” taught us to check every can to make sure they weren’t bulged. We ate the good ones with “gusto.” But then again most Marines and soldiers will eat anything that doesn’t move quickly enough to get away. Sometimes we even cook it.

[The Steppenwulf]

2 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Personally though I just dont think the protests in Russia will work.

What may be overlooked in this comment is an assumption that the Russian population comes out on the streets to demonstrate against the war or Putin. Events could unfold in a different way. Perhaps a situation in 6 months hence when the economic collapse is so bad in Russia that there is a return to food distribution coupons that were introduced in the 80's when all Russians queued for rations during the period of the slow collapse of the CCCP! The majority of the population will still remember and utterly dread a return to those dark days.

In this scenario I doubt it will be a street uprising against Putin's war that brings him down, it will be general strikes and civil disturbances in protest at the unacceptable privations that are quickly becoming the everyday experience of its citizens. You cannot lock the whole population in jail or shoot them in the streets for growing sick of their impoverished predicament; persistent high unemployment; decimated public services; poor health care; as well as having to queue to receive basic provisions..

Unless of course Russia goes down the route of N Korean levels of civil control, but that's what Putin might be forced to do to stay in power in this end game scenario. I don't expect it will even get that far.

Edited March 12, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Doc844]

A point touched on earlier.  Russian home front and satellite states is not my thing but as said previously what happens if certain areas/provinces of russia think, hmmm now might be a good time to say nope, we want out and declare independence, lots of bushfires springing up that russia are not in a position to deal with.  I mean this could be there best chance to have a go at it.

  Experts on russian homefront please chip in.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

No flank security I agree with, but I think you're trying way too hard to make the Russians look bad. The units in the killzone recognized what was happening and quickly got out of it, correctly identifying which area is safe and which isn't (except the one dismount that run towards the gas station before turning back). Their return suppressive fire was quick and pretty heavy, and hitting the general vicinity of where the ambusher shot from. The tanks behind the units fleeing the killzone stopped and oriented their front armor towards the threat and fired.

Not American SOF level of sophistication when it comes to IA drills, but not a terrible tactical response. You can pick apart a bunch of details and individual actions, but it wasn't imbecilic.

Yup. We trained to immediately get out of the “kill zone” by assaulting the fire base. You have to keep doing the drills until it becomes “muscle memory” since it goes against all psychology to run AT the firing ambush. Funny story of my last annual required combat training as a Regular in the Air Wing. We were doing ambushes, and I was a “point cutoff.” My job was to take out the point man when the main ambush opened up. I had a blank firing adapter on my M-14 and was laying on the ground in vegetation when the point man walked about 3 meters in front of me. The main ambush opened up, he turned to see what happened, I rolled to my knees and fired about three shots at the ground. He jumped about 3 or 4 feet into the air and turned ghost white, so I said “bang you’re effing dead.” I think he had to unblouse his trousers and let the feces drop out. I don’t think that poor LCpl thought it was as funny as I did though.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Vet 0369

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Don't underestimate 40 yr old farmer's. With motivation a d technical skills from maintaining their own machinery they can be a touch f*cking bunch. There's men back home in Ireland who I could totally see going about this in a calm, ruthless manner. 

Don’t forget that most of those 40ish year old men probably had military training as conscripts.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Vet 0369

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Rest assured I have a hell of respect for this ukrainian territorial defense forces. It is just that in my head whenever I hear territorial defense forces I need to think of these guys:

Well, I’m 72, and if I have an M-14 or Civilian M1A, basically the same 7.62 or .308 rifle, if I can see a man, I can hit him. We qualified with it at 200, 300, and 500 yards. The only gating factor is if I can see him.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Again won't the logistics of trying to feed "troops" of this unimaginably bad quality do more harm than good? Or is this all BS to convince Putin they have tried everything and then some before they admit they lost?

[Vet 0369]

As a side note, I believe the rifle in the Home Guard picture is an Enfield model 1917. It’s a .303 if British (most likely) or a 30-06 if U.S.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Vet 0369

[db_zero]

The Russian security forces like the National Guard and other forces are separate from the armed forces and responsible for internal security. Completely under different leadership and control. They number about 250,000 maybe more.

So if push comes to shove regular and reserve military units would not have to be kept inside of Russia to maintain control.

China too uses a similar model. Their internal security force is massive.

Edited March 12, 2022 by db_zero

[dan/california]

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-16-summary/

Still stalled, But Mariupol is getting hammered.

[dan/california]

Just now, db_zero said:

The Russian security forces like the National Guard and other forces are separate from the armed forces and responsible for internal security. Completely under different leadership and control. They number about 250,000 maybe more.

So if push comes to shove regular and reserve military units would not have to be kept inside of Russia to maintain control.

I have a pretty strong impression there were a fair number of these troops in the invasion force, and that they got chewed into little tiny pieces.

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-soldiers-ukraine-cannon-fodder-governor/31739187.html

 

[db_zero]

I’ve seen numerous reports that “40 mile” convoy heading for Kiev has now dispersed and some artillery is now in range of the city.

Some gave speculated that after making a 2 days straight drive the soldiers needed to rest and regroup and that’s why it was stalled. In any case it’s now been broken up into smaller groups.

[Zveroboy1]

Lots of people here and in the media are talking about a possible siege of Kyiv.

It appears that the Ukrainians have been launching small localized counter-attacks and even pushed back the Russian forces in a few areas. But it still looks like the Russian forces might be inching closer to the city even if their supply lines are not secured and control of the territory they presently occupy is only partial at best.

However they're not quite there yet. And while still possible in theory, it is rather doubtful whether they can even manage to fully encircle the Ukrainian capital.

However what if Putin decided that instead of launching an assault a la Grozny on Kyiv once it is surrounded, to just shell it out of spite, not unlike what happened in Sarajevo, in order to exert political pressure and force the Ukrainian government to the negotiation table in order to get more favourable terms?

First in this scenario you wouldn't even need to fully encircle the city. Since the goal wouldn't be to trap Ukrainian forces inside a cauldron nor to cut the city off completely, leaving a corridor open for civilian to evacuate would actually be a good idea from the Russian perspective, as long as the corridor could potentially be brought under artillery fire.

Of course that would be really ugly and cause even more civilian casualties and international condemnation of the Putin regime. But then again one could ask what more have the Russians got to fear in the way of sanctions that hasn't already been imposed on them?

Militarily the Russians probably can't win this war. But the problem is that I don't see how Putin can afford to lose this war politically either. It would be disastrous for him. He basically has his back against the wall, he can't simply call it quits and needs some sort of face saving solution.

Ukrainian resolve looks really strong right now and justifiably so but how likely is it that if Putin follows this course of action and the situation just degenerates into a long stalemate with less offensive operations, that Zelensky decides to tap out out in the end and agree to territorial concessions in order to spare civilian lives and avoid senseless destruction?

[db_zero]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I have a pretty strong impression there were a fair number of these troops in the invasion force, and that they got chewed into little tiny pieces.

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-soldiers-ukraine-cannon-fodder-governor/31739187.html

 

Interesting. Either incompetence or as some have speculated the Russians sent cannon fodder first and is holding back the decent troops to get a feel for what they are up against or as many have said they expected a cake walk…

Even if they sent 10,000 of these cannon fodder in that’s still leaves a lot of internal security forces left and a lot more regular and reserve units left.

 

[db_zero]

10 minutes ago, Zveroboy1 said:

Lots of people here and in the media are talking about a possible siege of Kyiv.

It appears that the Ukrainians have been launching small localized counter-attacks and even pushed back the Russian forces in a few areas. But it still looks like the Russian forces might be inching closer to the city even if their supply lines are not secured and control of the territory they presently occupy is only partial at best.

However they're not quite there yet. And while still possible in theory, it is rather doubtful whether they can even manage to fully encircle the Ukrainian capital.

However what if Putin decided that instead of launching an assault a la Grozny on Kyiv once it is surrounded, to just shell it out of spite, not unlike what happened in Sarajevo, in order to exert political pressure and force the Ukrainian government to the negotiation table in order to get more favourable terms?

First in this scenario you wouldn't even need to fully encircle the city. Since the goal wouldn't be to trap Ukrainian forces inside a cauldron nor to cut the city off completely, leaving a corridor open for civilian to evacuate would actually be a good idea from the Russian perspective, as long as the corridor could potentially be brought under artillery fire.

Of course that would be really ugly and cause even more civilian casualties and international condemnation of the Putin regime. But then again one could ask what more have the Russians got to fear in the way of sanctions that hasn't already been imposed on them?

Militarily the Russians probably can't win this war. But the problem is that I don't see how Putin can afford to lose this war politically either. It would be disastrous for him. He basically has his back against the wall, he can't simply call it quits and needs some sort of face saving solution.

Ukrainian resolve looks really strong right now and justifiably so but how likely is it that if Putin follows this course of action and the situation just degenerates into a long stalemate with less offensive operations, that Zelensky decides to tap out out in the end and agree to territorial concessions in order to spare civilian lives and avoid senseless destruction?

The Russians don’t have the numbers to take the city and it’s highly doubtful they can effectively surround it .

They can still bomb and shell the city and cause a lot of damage. 

If Putin goes postal and starts dropping chemical munitions it will get very ugly. In theory it could also be the trump card that would allow him to take the city but that would really get condemned heavily. Unfortunately it’s been done in the past.

In the South it looks like there is the possibility Mariupol might fall and forces there could link up and possibly move north or that what some experts think…

While some think this cannot go on for months as the Russian economy will collapse, some say not so fast. The Russian economy is one geared towards war and could carry on.

Unless one side folds or some agreement to stop all this takes place we will find out who’s right.

Edited March 12, 2022 by db_zero

[Zveroboy1]

TL;DR :Yes that's what I meant. They can't realistically take Kyiv and I don't believe in the Grozny urban assault scenario at all but could perhaps force the Ukrainian government to the negotiation table by just shelling it.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Zveroboy1

[sburke]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

They literally are not worth the logistical cost of importing them. On the off chance this isn't pure hype though, I want tape of them experiencing their first cold, wet night in Ukraine That will probably take care of ten or twenty percent of them right there

according to US sources, while Russia is putting out feelers they don't see any uptake so it seems this is all just bluster.

Putin’s Desperate Bid for More Troops in Ukraine Is Failing Miserably (msn.com)

The Pentagon hasn’t necessarily seen this kind of recruitment take place yet, the senior defense official said on a call with reporters Friday.

“We are aware of recruiting efforts… in Syria,” the senior official said. “We haven’t seen indications that their recruiting efforts have borne fruit and resulted in the actual arrival of foreign fighters from that part of the world.”

[Battlefront.com]

Let's keep in mind that some of those pensioners fought in Afghanistan when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union.  They might not be able to move around as fast as younger men, but cool heads and determination are also important.  Plus, these guys have a lot of experience being on the receiving end of an irregular fighting force.  That sort of experience will come in handy.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Now here's a yacht.  Just docked in Trieste and seized.  Belongs to oligarch Andrey Igorevich Melnichenko and is worth about HALF A BILLION Euro.  And yet I find it ugly, so there's that:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1502459553211949058/photo/1

[BletchleyGeek]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now here's a yacht.  Just docked in Trieste and seized.  Belongs to oligarch Andrey Igorevich Melnichenko and is worth about HALF A BILLION Euro.

Those guys really like to live large.

[chuckdyke]

War is armed robbery on a national scale. No need for physically involvement if you can do it through the banks and parliamentary degrees. Robin Hood politics rob the oligarchs and dole out the proceeds as foreign aid.

Edited March 12, 2022 by chuckdyke