How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Vindman is correct that the longer this goes the worse the Russian behavior will become. 

I'd also say that the worse the Russian behavior the bigger the demands made on a defeated Russia.

Steve

[Lethaface]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 I looked up something quick and the US was at one time spending $400,000 per year per soldier in Afghanistan.  Let's reduce that by a factor of 5 as we know the US spends heavy compared to Russia.  That's $80,000 per year.  Let's also assume that they keep a force of 170,000 in Ukraine.  That's $13.6 Billion per year with totally optimistic numbers of troops and expenses.  That's nearly 10% of Russia's prewar annual GDP, which is of course cratered to at least half that amount. Where is Putin going to find this sort of money?

AFAIK Russia's GDP was $1483.50 Billion last year, so 1%.

[Eddy]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's $13.6 Billion per year with totally optimistic numbers of troops and expenses.  That's nearly 10% of Russia's prewar annual GDP, which is of course cratered to at least half that amount.

Is that correct? Surely that's 1% of Russia's pre-cratered GDP. Point still stands of course

[John Kettler]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

For those who wondered if the racks over a turret do anything to defend against Javelin.  Well, I guess 7 weeks ago the Ukrainians decided to answer that question.  Maybe they had seen some of the contraptions on the Russian tanks and decided to satisfy their curiosity:

https://www.facebook.com/pressjfo.news/videos/474004010805910/

The answer is as we expected it would be... the extra bits of metal don't even annoy the Javelin.

Steve

Steve,

That so-called test was garbage and was not even conducted against a tank of any stripe. It was a tank turret of unknown condition before the shot, but clearly lacking ERA altogether, sitting on a BTR hull. As a target simulator it was so awful that had someone tried to sell Javelin here based on such a test, there might well have been a full-blown defense procurement scandal as a result. Nor have I seen any solid technical info on the materials used in the considerable number of versions of the so-called cage armor, which in many cases is purely overhead only. Have yet to see any hard proof of any effective Javelin overhead attack, or of any Javelin attack at all, yet some US Army officer was estimating an incredible 280 kills from the 300 Javelins we supplied.  Maybe it's time for the Army to conduct no notice drug tests?!  At least we have one video clip of an NLAW killing what Haiduk said was an already disabled Russian tank, but I've seen no equivalent Javelin video.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[Haiduk]

Some other photos of destroyed and captured vehivles near Voznesensk

[Lethaface]

2 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Is that correct? Surely that's 1% of Russia's pre-cratered GDP. Point still stands of course

Agreed x2. Total 'cost of ownership' of this invasion seems unsustainable in the long run. 

[BeondTheGrave]

2 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

AFAIK Russia's GDP was $1483.50 Billion last year, so 1%.

1% of the prewar economy is bad, but not intolerably so. 1% will certainly preclude other major military investments, domestic spending increases to offset unpopular policies, and higher taxes. Keep in mind too that Russia cannot trade sovereign debt now on the international market. This isn't a 'the sky is falling' crisis in itself, but it is a 'probably doomed in the long run' crisis. 

Anyway I've heard estimates as high as $20b USD/yr for the conflict. If material losses are halfway accurate, its going to take years and a major rearmament program to replace all those loses. At a time when Russia's GDP is basically long term trashed. This is like 'end of the USSR' type crisis, ballooning military budget supported by collapsing economy plus falling oil prices. 

[Ts4EVER]

The biggest economic blow so far was the freezing of Russia's foreign currency reserves. This way they can't use those to buy rubles to prop up their currency, leading to runaway inflation. Seems to me that they had actually prepared to get hit by the SWIFT sanctions, but in the recent years they had bought more Euros as opposed to Dollars, possibly because they had not expected the EU to actually freeze their funds. Major miscalculation.

[Lethaface]

5 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

1% of the prewar economy is bad, but not intolerably so. 1% will certainly preclude other major military investments, domestic spending increases to offset unpopular policies, and higher taxes. Keep in mind too that Russia cannot trade sovereign debt now on the international market. This isn't a 'the sky is falling' crisis in itself, but it is a 'probably doomed in the long run' crisis. 

Anyway I've heard estimates as high as $20b USD/yr for the conflict. If material losses are halfway accurate, its going to take years and a major rearmament program to replace all those loses. At a time when Russia's GDP is basically long term trashed. This is like 'end of the USSR' type crisis, ballooning military budget supported by collapsing economy plus falling oil prices. 

Yeah, let's also keep in mind that Gross Domestic Product isn't the same as the chequebook in the hands of those in power.
The war is very expensive. I believe the warchest is rather deep but there's many other cost than direct liquidity can solve and the question is how solvent that liquidity is given the sanctions (edited).

Edited March 9, 2022 by Lethaface

[womble]

Taking a cursory look at easily available numbers, it seems that about half the Russian army is conscripts... and they put roughly half their army* on the border to invade Ukraine. So if it was expected that no conscripts would take part in the offensive, it would mean that all the legit contract soldiers would be committed to Ukraine, and every other formation would be composed entirely of conscripts.

Obviously, this would be apparent to Putin, and not a sustainable disposition of manpower. So his feigned surprise is deeply unconvincing.

* Less the numbers made up by airforce personnel (who're less dense than infantry) and those made up by the various riot police elements... are they estimated to be very numerous?  But those reductions wouldn't change the calculation much, I suppose.

[BeondTheGrave]

2 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

The biggest economic blow so far was the freezing of Russia's foreign currency reserves. This way they can't use those to buy rubles to prop up their currency, leading to runaway inflation. Seems to me that they had actually prepared to get hit by the SWIFT sanctions, but in the recent years they had bought more Euros as opposed to Dollars, possibly because they had not expected the EU to actually freeze their funds. Major miscalculation.

A slight modification: They got the Euros because Europe has been paying for gas in Euros. Euros are a better investment for international commerce than the Ruble, especially owing to the stability of the Euro vis-a-vis the Ruble. So they held on to the Euro. 

I do think youre right that they didn't expect Europe to cut them off so sharply, and so Moscow never dumped Euros in favor of Gold or more Rubles. 

[Eddy]

6 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

The biggest economic blow so far was the freezing of Russia's foreign currency reserves

Agreed. This isn't economic sanctions. This is economic warfare. I wonder whether rather than just punishment, it's actually designed to destroy Russia's ability to fight a war (or at least make it much, much more difficult)

Edited March 9, 2022 by Eddy

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Eddy said:

I wonder whether rather than just punishment, it's actually designed to destroy Russia's ability to fight a war

Let´s hope so.

[DesertFox]

Fairchild refueling wing deploys Airmen, KC-135s to Germany

 

 

[Lethaface]

12 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Agreed. This isn't economic sanctions. This is economic warfare. I wonder whether rather than just punishment, it's actually designed to destroy Russia's ability to fight a war (or at least make it much, much more difficult)

That's certainly the aim of the sanctions  'special measures', afaik.

[womble]

Another thing about conscripts. The next draft is coming up soon. Could this have been a factor in the decision about timing? At this point, half the conscripts have been "in" for nearly a year, and the other half have been "in" for nearly 6 months. That's as trained as you're going to get them. And once their terms are up, they're going to want to go home; I don't believe there's any "in for the duration" clause for those conscripts that would apply for a "special military operation" to keep them under arms and from returning home. So Putin was "expecting" that it would all be over bar the shouting, before the spring conscription happened. At the very least.

[Ultradave]

18 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Agreed. This isn't economic sanctions. This is economic warfare. I wonder whether rather than just punishment, it's actually designed to destroy Russia's ability to fight a war (or at least make it much, much more difficult)

Harsh enough to convince them that the better course is to stop. If they were less, they wouldn't get his attention. Remains to be seen if they will, even as harsh as they are.

The end result may be that.

Dave

[John Kettler]

12 hours ago, sburke said:

here you go.  it is long, but it pretty much covers everything

Ukraine, US Biolabs, and an Ongoing Russian Disinformation Campaign | Snopes.com

 

sburke,

Suggest that, rather than relying on the not at all what it seems Snopes.com, you do some real research, as I did. It was trivial to find multiple proofs the labs were DOD funded (DARPA) and were numerous. Particularly of note was that material previously readily available regarding these labs was removed from the US Embassy in Kviv's website a day after the story broke. Even a quick look at the kind of work DARPA admitted to of possible BW relevance involved the use of insects to deliver permanently gene altering viruses to plants and animals alike. If Steve's cool with it, I'll be happy to post the links I sent him on the labs, their funding, work being done, protests ref the labs and statements decrying them from Ukraine, Russia and other countries. A telltale that something real and tangible is involved is that a slew of previously available online sources have either disappeared or been dead ended. Checked this personally.  Am quite prepared to believe the Russians are using the discovery of these labs and their activities to support their cause, but from what I've seen, they have every reason for justifiable concern, especially since some of the labs are very close to the Russian border. You don't need disinformation when the truth is so alarming it isn't needed. The Ukrainians have documented hundreds of deaths near the labs (since they were built and made operational), from a range, might I add, of known BW agents, such as anthrax. 

Regards,

John Kettler

[akd]

1 minute ago, John Kettler said:

sburke,

Suggest that, rather than relying on the not at all what it seems Snopes.com, you do some real research, as I did. It was trivial to find multiple proofs the labs were DOD funded (DARPA) and were numerous. Particularly of note was that material previously readily available regarding these labs was removed from the US Embassy in Kviv's website a day after the story broke. Even a quick look at the kind of work DARPA admitted to of possible BW relevance involved the use of insects to deliver permanently gene altering viruses to plants and animals alike. If Steve's cool with it, I'll be happy to post the links I sent him on the labs, their funding, work being done, protests ref the labs and statements decrying them from Ukraine, Russia and other countries. A telltale that something real and tangible is involved is that a slew of previously available online sources have either disappeared or been dead ended. Checked this personally.  Am quite prepared to believe the Russians are using the discovery of these labs and their activities to support their cause, but from what I've seen, they have every reason for justifiable concern, especially since some of the labs are very close to the Russian border. You don't need disinformation when the truth is so alarming it isn't needed. The Ukrainians have documented hundreds of deaths near the labs (since they were built and made operational), from a range, might I add, of known BW agents, such as anthrax. 

Regards,

John Kettler

Time to take a vacation JK?

[John Kettler]

13 hours ago, dan/california said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/

Some it you have seen if you have been looking, some it was new to me, and if they say it is graphic, they are NOT joking.

dan/california,

Thanks for reminding me of that resource. Meant to look into it and promptly forgot.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

10 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Chernihiv oblast - Russian supply convoy is ambushed. It was covered by T-72B3 tank and SA-8. ONe of trucks was loaded with Grad rockets.

The digit "50" on the plates - Western military district

That SA-8 is not in firing order, since the acquisition radar isn't erected.  The remaining three radars all appear to have weather shrouds on them, too. This may or may not affect their performance. Have never seen anything on that matter before, during or after I was a Soviet Threat Analyst.

Regards,

John Kettler

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, John Kettler said:

That SA-8 is not in firing order, since the acquisition radar isn't erected

Having a truck blow up next to you has to lead to some performance anxiety.  I mean hell, I have trouble peeing with people watching.

[Bearstronaut]

20 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

sburke,

Suggest that, rather than relying on the not at all what it seems Snopes.com, you do some real research, as I did. It was trivial to find multiple proofs the labs were DOD funded (DARPA) and were numerous. Particularly of note was that material previously readily available regarding these labs was removed from the US Embassy in Kviv's website a day after the story broke. Even a quick look at the kind of work DARPA admitted to of possible BW relevance involved the use of insects to deliver permanently gene altering viruses to plants and animals alike. If Steve's cool with it, I'll be happy to post the links I sent him on the labs, their funding, work being done, protests ref the labs and statements decrying them from Ukraine, Russia and other countries. A telltale that something real and tangible is involved is that a slew of previously available online sources have either disappeared or been dead ended. Checked this personally.  Am quite prepared to believe the Russians are using the discovery of these labs and their activities to support their cause, but from what I've seen, they have every reason for justifiable concern, especially since some of the labs are very close to the Russian border. You don't need disinformation when the truth is so alarming it isn't needed. The Ukrainians have documented hundreds of deaths near the labs (since they were built and made operational), from a range, might I add, of known BW agents, such as anthrax. 

Regards,

John Kettler

Lol sure Jan.

[LongLeftFlank]

...Signal to noise ratio is asymptotically approaching zero.

[Haiduk]

Russians "denazify" chikens