How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, Commanderski said:

This was just on Fox News: 

 Financial services companies Visa and Mastercard announced Saturday they are suspending  business in Russia in response to the country’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine. "Effective immediately, Visa will work with its clients and partners within Russia to cease all Visa transactions over the coming days," Visa said in a press release. "Once complete, all transactions initiated with Visa cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside the country and any Visa cards issued by financial institutions outside of Russia will no longer work within the Russian Federation."

Mastercard effectively said the same thing.

Paypal as well.

 

 

[dan/california]

Putin is green rooming himself into meetings.

[Benjamin Ritchie-Hook]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Putin is green rooming himself into meetings.

Oh my goodness, Putin's a hologram! And given how things are going, it looks like he's been taking the advice of another famous hologram . . .

[sburke]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Putin is green rooming himself into meetings.

That's called the amateur hour in propaganda.  Either that or Putin is really Max headroom.

[chris talpas]

You have to hand it to President Zelensky, he is quite determined and persuasive.  Much like  people are pleasantly surprised at the unity shown amongst democratric nations against Russia, who've instituted broad and punishing sanctions.  The corporate world is showing significant initiative in instituting measures as well.  No doubt driven in part by a fear by the general public who are quite supportive of the Ukraine's cause.

Many are surprised at how this president, given his 'entertainer' background, would rise to Churchillian stature.

Zenensky's atypical behaviour -he didn't go running to protect his butt, has not only inspired the Ukranian people but the rest of the world as well.  That the Ukrainian people are continuing to resist and shown no signs of surrender against significant odds, tells me that they are a people worth fighting for. 

Forgive me for this politically incorrect statement -but these Ukrainanians are no Afghans.

How much blood and treasure did NATO spend in Afghanistan and for what?

Not only the US, but many of the Alliance's nations served there, bled and died.

Let us remember that when we see these brave Ukrainians begging for help.

How can we be creative without crossing into direct Blue on Red conflict?

[chris talpas]

Speaking of creative ...

Looks like Poland might be going to send more fighter jets to Ukraine and the U.S. will backfill their inventory with American made fighers.

Edited March 6, 2022 by chris talpas
added the qualifier 'might be' since not yet a done deal

[chris talpas]

If the transfer of planes is going to occur, could get into an almost Battle of Britain feel to it .  One important aspect of that historical success was that shot down British pilots were parachuting into friendly territory unlike the Germans.  Same situation could apply here.

We'll see

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Within the cited thread is an interesting article about russian logistics. Interesting read.  

Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks

 

 

Well rail makes more sense than air but there are some serious issues.  Rail has traditionally been a key Strategic LOC, so think back in Russia, to get the massive amount of tonnage needed into assembly areas so they can be pushed forward.  

This seems to suggest that the idea would be to use rail as an operational LOC based on the alignment with axis and existing rail (alternatively, they could just be built next to major roads so this is not a plan, more of a coincidence).  In the old days they just used different gauge of rail to prevent this but assuming that is not an issue here there is a lot of risk to this but at least it is bette plan than log jams on roads and everyone running out of gas.

The biggest problem with using rail as operational LOCs is security.  A train  cannot hide, nor can it maneuver.   It is forced to come down a rail line.  So securing that entire line against attack is a challenge to say the least.

Second rail is fragile.  Two guys with a truck and crowbar can make it impassible.  I would be surprised if the Ukrainians have not already cut rail in very big slices and they sure can do it after without much trouble.  Trains are also fragile so hitting them especially from the air is a bad thing.

But if one can establish full security on a rail line and keep it open, you could establish operational depots along it.  But it is going to be hit continuously, one would have to expect that, especially if you cannot establish air superiority.

Normally operational and tactical LOCs are like a blood system, a lot of redundancy and alternate routes, parallel arteries  A lot of depots and “iron mountains” of supply.  The reason is that you know some are going to get cut but you build the web so that supplies always get through.  Running down a single rail line is kinda counter to that.

Finally all those cities along the rail lines are not a good thing.  They are not “logistics hubs” they are filled with pissed off and well armed Ukrainians and trying to control them is going to be hard enough without running key LOCs right thru them.  That is just asking for sabotage and nastiness.  

[The_Capt]

48 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Forgive me for this politically incorrect statement -but these Ukrainanians are no Afghans.

Sure they are but more like the ones that beat us.  And I am not talking ideology or character but will to fight.  The Taliban fought an insurgency for 20 years against NATO and never thought of tapping out.  

Given what I have seen so far the Ukrainians might be even more hardcore, which is even more bad news for the Russians.

[Loki]

We need a no fly zone even if it risks WW3. People in WW2 did not question the "what if's. They just did the decent and right thing to do. That said I suspect nuclear war within a month. If we all die doing the right thing then god bless.

[Zveroboy1]

Video compression glitch more like; the same thing that people used to claim Hillary Clinton was a lizard.

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Zveroboy1

[Loki]

P.S. I love the Robotech image

[gnarly]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

True, but the Russians have been obviously giving the Ukrainians the best propaganda they could ask for, and more, served on a golden platter.

That drone video of the hit on the helicopter shows us, again, that the Russians are horrible planners.  It is obvious that the Ukrainians knew exactly where they could expect a helicopter and set up both the drone and the AA missile team to capture this video.  For that to happen the Russians must be reusing the exact same flight paths over and over again.

This gets into the larger discussion as to why the Russian airforce is performing so abysmally in this war.  One of the major points made is that they have very little experience, training, and equipment to do what is called "deconflicting" the airspace.  This is the ability to make sure your aircraft don't smash or shoot each other by carefully managing how the aircraft move.  As with just about everything we've seen so far, the Russians only have a very crude and inflexible capability.  In this case it appears they have established very tight corridors and do not change them because doing anything else is beyond their capabilities.

NATO, on the other hand, has no such problems in their ops.

Steve

No idea of the robustness/valiidity of this source, but it popped up in my feed:

 

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/russian-air-force-actually-incapable-complex-air-operations

 

 

[dan/california]

One more thing the Russians might not have brought enough off.

[akd]

Gotta catch ‘em all:

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by akd

[chris talpas]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Sure they are but more like the ones that beat us.  And I am not talking ideology or character but will to fight.  The Taliban fought an insurgency for 20 years against NATO and never thought of tapping out.  

Given what I have seen so far the Ukrainians might be even more hardcore, which is even more bad news for the Russians.

Touche! 

[LongLeftFlank]

Rasputitza, b*t*hcez.

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Begemot]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

We need a no fly zone even if it risks WW3. People in WW2 did not question the "what if's. They just did the decent and right thing to do. That said I suspect nuclear war within a month. If we all die doing the right thing then god bless.

"That said I suspect nuclear war within a month. If we all die doing the right thing then god bless."

And we thought the jihadists were insane.

[LongLeftFlank]

It looks to me that the oblasts south of the Dnieper bend and adjoining the separatist Donbass areas are now lost, and Putin can claim (at home) a 'strategic win' even if he has to withdraw or abandon the other columns and cease fire.  I just don't see the Ukrainians having the offensive capability to retake these areas before the Russians reinforce them. Any other thoughts?

Interesting video of the UA depot at Kherson captured by the RA....

Note: Pro-Russian sources.

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

It looks to me that the oblasts south of the Dnieper bend and adjoining the separatist Donbass areas are now lost, and Putin can claim (at home) a 'strategic win' even if he has to withdraw or abandon the other columns and cease fire.  I just don't see the Ukrainians having the offensive capability to retake these areas before the Russians reinforce them. Any other thoughts?

Interesting video of the UA depot at Kherson captured by the RA....

Note: Russian sources.

 

I think the Ukrainians can tell him you get back your X number of POWs assuming.....  and then whatever terms the Ukrainians set.  Meanwhile the sanctions stay in place.

 

Okay that was just my pissed off response at Russia.  The reality is I don't think Putin could sell that as a strategic win.  I'm not even sure he could withdrawal that northern column without it abandoning all its heavy weapons.  Personally, I feel like Putin is that guy at the Vegas table who just couldn't stand to lose and went all in with a pair of twos.

[LongLeftFlank]

Noted. I know emotions are high and people are venting, but I'd really rather stick to the military situation here.

[Fenris]

Just like 80 years ago

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Noted. I know emotions are high and people are venting, but I'd really rather stick to the military situation here.

the second point was my military/political feeling.  I think he is in too deep to sell that as a strategic win.  He's cratered the economy, been embarrassed by Ukrainian resistance and his repeatedly stated goal was to eliminate the fascists.  He has given a strong impetus to EU to admit Ukraine.  Moldava and Georgia have now applied for membership while Finland and Sweden have considered NATO membership.  He might be able to sell some of that to the general pop, but those at the top know he has taken a beating.

As all these soldiers go home he has 160,000+ folks telling all their friends and neighbors how bad this actually was and what they saw.

[Zveroboy1]

I don't think Putin is ready to quit just yet personally. The land bridge to Donbas could be a way to save face and cut his losses but Mariupol is bound to fall sooner or later and then that would probably free up a lot of troops and the Russians could resume their advance towards the north. I don't see them achieving anything in the Kyiv meat grinder anytime soon unless the forces coming for the north east can reach the Kyiv suburbs.

There is one thing that makes a bit cautious though and that's why I try to remain measured : this war is covered in such a way that it is akin to a boxing match where you only get to see one half of the ring and one single boxer. You see one boxer taking a lot of punches but even though he is clearly fumbling a lot you are not really seeing how many of his own punches are landing.

Clearly the Russians are getting mauled but it is bound to take its toll on the Ukrainian side too in the long run and who knows how far Putin is ready to go.

 

[sburke]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, the did a 180.  When I heard that Coke was staying active in Russia my first thought was we'll see a reversal probably in a day or two.  You'd think a company that rakes in billions of Dollars could afford someone who could have told them that before making themselves look foolish.

Steve

The holdouts right now seem to be a lot of fast food companies.  McDonalds in particular is under pressure, but I think Starbucks is in there as well.