How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This is quite bit more truth telling than I would expect. Unless cracks are starting to show.

That's a fairly shaky-looking translation. Did she mean that only 4 conscripts who had been forced to sign a contract or had one signed for them remained alive from a specific company? Or only 4 personnel in total? Because that's a variability in actual casualty level from 1% (if the initial establishment only had 5 false-premise contracted-conscripts, and the reduction to 4 is the only casualty the company has taken) to 96%.

I suspect that it's 4 false-contract survivors from one company, but that they formed a small percentage (but more than 5%) of the company's initial strength and have sustained a greater share of the casualties the company has taken, being conscripts.

Or that the translation is lacking, and actually, the Senator was claiming (with whatever degree of accuracy, and over whatever range of units that she had chosen her data from) that "only" 4 conscripts in the company had had their contracts fraudulently endorsed. I have no idea how many conscripts there might be in a given company; I expect it varies between formations.

At least (perhaps, if the translation is trustworthy) she used the word "war", which has apparently been declared a no-no.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Holien said:

 

Not my graphic work, but just seen it and I could caption it Steve and his wife in Bed?

But it could equally apply to me and everyone else on this thread...

Please don't put me on a vacation....

Heh.  Well, not far from the truth.  Last night I got 7 hours of sleep.  First time I got more than 5 in a day since the war started.  Unfortunately for me, Putin's war coincided with some time consuming personal commitments I made on top of the usual stuff.  Another reason for me to despise the man, even if it's petty compared to the reasons Ukrainians have.

Steve

[Taranis]

49 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I actually used this source to make the 20th CAA sometime around a week ago. They use t-72b3 and bmp-2 still. Does anyone know if these regiments/brigades come with 3 mechanized battalions and 1 motorized? Look at 49th CAA's inventory. 

Unfortunately, I'm not a modern russian army expert, I can't say. Maybe it's due to really recent reorganizations of 2020/2021.

[Armorgunner]

Germamy is sending 2700 "Strela" ex DDR Manpads to Ukraine.

 

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article237268513/Waffen-fuer-die-Ukraine-Deutschland-liefert-2700-Flugabwehrraketen.html

 

[George MC]

Relics coming out of storage?

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Armorgunner]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

When talking about proper AAA only something like Patriots will help.

US / UK were sending us Stingers because they legit thought the war will quickly turn into a very long and bloody war of insurgency, slowly bleeding Russia - but with current events it appears that much suffering can be prevented if russians will stop having an advantage in the air, not to mention most likely shorten the war considerably without it ever going too far.

TL;DR: a few "gifted" Patriot systems manned by the International Legion "volunteers" will make all the difference in the world while formally keeping NATO out of it.

Stingers made the Soviet airforce much more ineffective in Afghanistan though. Since they had to go higher. SU 25 Frogfoots CAS, did almost disapear. They just didn´t want to sacrifice them.

[Markus86]

8 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Germamy is sending 2700 "Strela" ex DDR Manpads to Ukraine.

 

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article237268513/Waffen-fuer-die-Ukraine-Deutschland-liefert-2700-Flugabwehrraketen.html

 

I remember reading in January about "Strelas". Basically saying that they are supposed to be disposed of but that the responsible facilities don't have the capabilities to do so. 

"In the warehouse in Wermutshausen, Baden-Württemberg, for example, there were around 2,500 "Strela" missiles, which were stored in wooden boxes and "oxidized/corroded, with some mold forming, which could damage the ammunition warehouses and affect the staff." The disposal had come to a standstill, even inquiries could not have resulted in "an acceleration of the disposal process"."

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundeswehr-weitere-raketen-sondern-hochexplosiven-stoff-ab-a-f308334f-0283-4ea6-80cf-b69b73ed3efb

I hope there are "good" ones too and that these are send to Ukraine. 

[womble]

18 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Interesting analysis on how Russian civil aviation is set to implode due to sanctions looking at aircraft leases, maintenance facility access and eventually spare parts.

 

I suspect his next video might address the changes in the insurance market wrt Russia, too. The Tube you linked was made before Lloyds of London joined the sanctions, I think.

[Armorgunner]

1 hour ago, Artkin said:

I actually used this source to make the 20th CAA sometime around a week ago. They use t-72b3 and bmp-2 still. Does anyone know if these regiments/brigades come with 3 mechanized battalions and 1 motorized? Look at 49th CAA's inventory. 

20th Guards CAA:

3rd MRD: 1 Tank rgt, 2 MR rgt

144th MRD: 1 Tank rgt, 2 MR rgt

1st Guards tank Brigade: ? Usually 3 Tank Battalions, and one MR Battalion for a Tank Brigade.

 

Total of 20th Guards CAA:

• 3rd Motor Rifle Division (Boguchar)^[12]
• 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division (Yelnya)^[13]
• 1st Guards Tank Brigade (Boguchar)
• 236th Artillery Brigade (Kolomna)
• 448th Rocket Brigade (Kursk)
• 99th Weapons and Equipment Storage Base (Tver)
• 49th Anti-Aircraft Rocket Brigade (Krasny Bor)
• 7015th Weapons and Equipment Storage Base (Mulino)
• 152nd Logistic Support Brigade (Liski)
• 9th Guards Headquarters Brigade (Voronezh)
• Battalion of the 82nd Separate Warsaw Radio Engineering Special Purpose Brigade

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Ground_Forces#Branches_of_service

 

The 4th Guards Tank divisions 423rd MR rgt has 3 MR battalions, and a Tank company for example

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/423rd_Guards_Yampolsky_Motor_Rifle_Regiment

Edited March 4, 2022 by Armorgunner

[George MC]

From the other side of the hill. Translation of Mikhail Khodarenok’s article about the course of a possible Russian war on Ukraine - spoiler he’s rather scathing of Russia’s chances   Published before this kicked off  

https://russiandefpolicy.com/2022/02/07/mass-fire-strike-on-ukraine/

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by George MC

[Battlefront.com]

30 minutes ago, George MC said:

Relics coming out of storage?

 

Relics?  Yes, but I don't think these are mothballed equipment.  Most of Russia's stuff is still Soviet production.  They look to be in good condition.

Intel reports say that Russia is relocating more units from its eastern provinces to European Russia.  This could be some of it.

Steve

[womble]

30 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Stingers made the Soviet airforce much more ineffective in Afghanistan though. Since they had to go higher. SU 25 Frogfoots CAS, did almost disapear. They just didn´t want to sacrifice them.

The Russians aren't using CAS birds to level the cities. You need high level, high capability modern AA missile systems to deny the airspace to the units that are bombing civilians. Stinger won't cut that job.

Edited March 4, 2022 by womble

[DesertFox]

34 minutes ago, George MC said:

Relics coming out of storage?

 

So after the "elite" forces they send in the pretorian guard? Very creative way to demilitarize the CA and support ebay.

Edited March 4, 2022 by DesertFox

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Stingers made the Soviet airforce much more ineffective in Afghanistan though. Since they had to go higher. SU 25 Frogfoots CAS, did almost disapear. They just didn´t want to sacrifice them.

Correct.  Concentrating them in and around Kiev, Kharkiv, and Odessa should be enough to effectively deny Russia tactical air support.  Especially rotary aircraft.

The rest, unfortunately, is not something that really can be dealt with without uniformed NATO personnel and equipment.  Stingers and Javelins can be used by anybody after a few minutes training.  A Patriot system can't be.

This is the same thing that happened back in 2014 when the Russians were claiming that "separatists" were crewing captured Ukrainian BUK systems.  Even if Ukraine had lost such a system to the "separatists" (they did not), there would be a fat chance in Hell of enough "separatists" with prior military experience with BUK being available to crew it.  So the obvious answer was it was crewed by a Russian AAA unit.  And thanks to sleuths like BIllingcat, we even know most of their names.

Anyway, the point is that Stingers are going to Ukraine because a) they are effective and b) there isn't anything else to send.

Steve

[DesertFox]

 

 

[theforger]

https://www.understandingwar.org/report/russias-military-posture

Report dates back to 2018 but interesting insight into strategy against Baltic States / Ukraine and includes detailed OOB.

https://www.fpri.org/multimedia/2022/03/examining-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

Rob Lee's take on the events so far, and what could happen next

[Artkin]

39 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

20th Guards CAA:

3rd MRD: 1 Tank rgt, 2 MR rgt

144th MRD: 1 Tank rgt, 2 MR rgt

1st Guards tank Brigade: ? Usually 3 Tank Battalions, and one MR Battalion for a Tank Brigade.

 

Total of 20th Guards CAA:

• 3rd Motor Rifle Division (Boguchar)^[12]
• 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division (Yelnya)^[13]
• 1st Guards Tank Brigade (Boguchar)
• 236th Artillery Brigade (Kolomna)
• 448th Rocket Brigade (Kursk)
• 99th Weapons and Equipment Storage Base (Tver)
• 49th Anti-Aircraft Rocket Brigade (Krasny Bor)
• 7015th Weapons and Equipment Storage Base (Mulino)
• 152nd Logistic Support Brigade (Liski)
• 9th Guards Headquarters Brigade (Voronezh)
• Battalion of the 82nd Separate Warsaw Radio Engineering Special Purpose Brigade

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Ground_Forces#Branches_of_service

 

The 4th Guards Tank divisions 423rd MR rgt has 3 MR battalions, and a Tank company for example

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/423rd_Guards_Yampolsky_Motor_Rifle_Regiment

The biggest issue in researching russian/soviet toe information is barely any of it agrees. 423rd MRR wasnt mentioned in the original post that I quoted. If it was, I would be able to understand where the "120x bmp-2 and "36x btr80" place in the other MRRs.

[George MC]

 

[George MC]

3 minutes ago, George MC said:

 

Meant too add near the end you see the tactical drone operator moving behind the unit commander. 

[c3k]

I'm really liking the idea of "green men" entering western Ukraine and "capturing" Patriot missile batteries and using them against Russian aviation. And maybe even "green men" using "captured" F35s and F22s to further sweep the skies.

Turnabout is fair play...

[kraze]

1 hour ago, womble said:

The Russians aren't using CAS birds to level the cities. You need high level, high capability modern AA missile systems to deny the airspace to the units that are bombing civilians. Stinger won't cut that job.

Yes, but also no.

Today two Su-25 were shot down doing just that - bombing civilian buildings.

One was hit and downed with Igla of all things

Edited March 4, 2022 by kraze

[TheVulture]

3 minutes ago, c3k said:

I'm really liking the idea of "green men" entering western Ukraine and "capturing" Patriot missile batteries and using them against Russian aviation. And maybe even "green men" using "captured" F35s and F22s to further sweep the skies.

Turnabout is fair play...

If anyone asks, they were museum pieces that got pressed in to service. 

[BornGinger]

4 hours ago, Sarjen said:

Sorry if the rest offended you.

Your swear words didn't offend me. I was just joking. I don't care about which words people use here.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, TheVulture said:

If anyone asks, they were museum pieces that got pressed in to service. 

And if that doesn't work, try to argue that Russia did indeed have Patriot missiles and then make all kinds of badly edited videos as evidence.  Oh, and hire thousands of people to spread the "truth" on social media.  Because nothing says "truth" better than a bunch of minimum wage workers paid to type in the message of the day.

Steve