How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

48 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I truly hope you're right and that the Russians will run out of, well, everything, long before they can execute The Plan.

But the consequences of being wrong are the loss of nearly all Ukraine east of the Dniepr, whether or not the UA forces escape.  Land which will be a lot harder to win back once the war of movement stops. So please indulge me, I'm going to quote this guy's feed some more as he is making some sense to me....

Encirclements are actually excellent when you don't want a lot of casualties: they neutralize enemy forces but don't require you to destroy them.

[As] it's a hard point to understand from just looking at a map, it's worth going into what an encirclement entails....

At the operational level, any modern army is going to be entirely road-bound—especially in muddy conditions like we're seeing.

This really limits the extent of an army's dispositions in the first place. It also means that "encircling" them requires occupying a relatively limited number of areas in force, with patrols in between.

The real value of encirclement is that the forces within are cut off: no resupply of fuel, ammo, or food. This lets the attacking force follow up with a series of attacks and smaller encirclements while enjoying complete overmatch.

The first targets of Russian air and long-range fires will be the HQs and comms. We should start seeing a lot more jamming too, after which individual positions will be surrounded and overwhelmed. This is a slow, firepower-intensive process that is similar to a siege in many ways. Far more soldiers are likely to surrender than be killed in combat.

Breaking out of encirclements is usually costly no matter what, but beats the alternative.

The fact that the LPR/DPR were actually able to break out does suggest that Ukraine's Donbas forces were pretty substantially degraded/withdrawn at some point since the beginning of the operation. 

Assuming roughly half of the Russians' 200k are in the south and that there are still ~45k Ukrainians in the Donbas (many have very likely been withdrawn), this will be a lengthy but feasible process for the Russians.

BUT—and this is important—they haven't been encircled yet.

Execution, on the other hand has been a lot worse, reflected in the poor state of readiness—THAT is where the miscommunications came into play.

 

This gentleman, and I am sure he is scholar, is absolutely correct...if this was a conventional war.  He is talking about a war long gone and the calculus makes no sense here.  Conventional Ukrainian forces in this sort of war are difficult to "cut off" at all because everywhere that they wind up, they are in friendly terrain.  So lets take that example up in that thread.  Say the Russians manage to pinch off from that fat bit on the Dnieper and link up at Horlivka trapping that "pocket".  By conventional metrics the Russians should be able to wait 72-96 hours and any Ukrainian force should be out of supply, cut of from C2 and ready to surrender, brilliant.  Very slow...damn near glacial, but nice and Soviet. 

[Aside if you look at CMCW Soviet Campaign, the Soviet MRR is supposed to cover 50km in about 48 hours.  This is straight out of the manual for a breakthrough battle scenario.  In the original plans the Soviets wanted to be on the Rhine in seven days so in game terms they had 5 days to go down past Frankfurt and capture Rhine crossings at the end of the Soviet Campaign.  That is a distance of about 200km.  The deepest penetration I can see for the Russians (wikipedia) is about 150km along two very narrow corridors and we are heading into day 8, they have stalled...calling it]

But!  This is already not a conventional war, the widescale arming of civilians and all those Molotovs was our first hint.  So if the Russians do create that southern pocket, they are looking at roughly 20000 sq kms of hostile civilian country that now have Ukrainian force integrated within them...and no air superiority.   The UA will have any and all gas it needs from the locals for a lot longer than 72 hours (not every town had a gas station in 1941) but eventually it will run out but not before it really messes thing up with what armor it keeps.  Further it is not like this has been Pear Harbor, the Ukrainians have stockpiled caches and planned for this exact fight.  So local support in the form of food and gas, ammo caches, medical support and recruits...and 20000 sq kms to hide in.  Further, the Russians seem incapable of shutting down internet (and with star link they might not be able to at all) so these now hybrid forces are not only connected back to HQ, they are connected to each other.  That is a nightmare occupation scenario if there ever was one.  

One can draw red lines on the map all day long but they are just that, lines.  They do not represent the actual situation on the ground by a long shot.  If one uses WW2 metrics, sure it looks bad but we are very far from that.  Finally this is in the south east in what was supposed to be a "soft" area from a support point of view, so it may actually work here if the locals opt out and start turning in UA, maybe.  Once you get west of the Dnieper, forget it.  You can pinch and encircle all you want but you are lying to yourself...you are the one who is encircled, unless you are willing to create camps and do mass evictions, which just makes your strategic situation worse (see: domestic support issues).

I have watched a few experts drawing lines like this was the Gulf War and unless the will of the Ukrainian people breaks on a massive scale (and there are no indications it will, in fact it has gone the other way), encirclement is a really bad idea as you now stretch out your forces along very long LOCs, surrounded by hostiles.   In fact this whole 5-6 prong attack was dumb, it looks like one of those "power point" ideas that the political level loves:

"We will hit them along all those axis and create a shock that will break their will", brilliant, clapping. 

Old Afghan Veteran "Wait a minute.  You want 5-6 axis of advance, all having about 100-200 kms of hostile territory to cover in...sorry did he say 72 hours?  And then we have to hold those LOCs, right?  Oh, sorry, of course they will surrender their cities and not engage in urban warfare so we won't need those LOCs for more than 72 hours...hmm.  And how long was the air campaign?  Oh, about 24 days...well that makes sen...oh, you said 24 hours...wow, that is a little light, no?  And of course we will hit them with cyber attacks to cripple their C2, comms/internet instead...huh...ok, but what about social media...oh, right the total surrender thing.  Well for something this ambitious we must be leading with our best shock troops...oh, 3rd echelon who we aren't going to even tell what is going on...ok....well, good luck with that."

In short, if the Russian government worked as hard on this operational plan as they have on trying to hide their money this thing might have really been over in 3 days.

 

 

[db_zero]

This has been percolating in the back of my mind for a while. What if Putin has some sort of chronic condition? Could explain his fear of catching Covid and isolation.

If he knows the clock is ticking then we’re dealing with a tricky situation.

Also if he is taking medication to control a chronic condition that can change his mental state and decision making.

Edited March 3, 2022 by db_zero

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, db_zero said:

This has been percolating in the back of my mind for a while. What if Putin has some sort of chronic condition? Could explain his fear of catching Covid and isolation.

If he knows the clock is ticking then we’re dealing with a tricky situation.

The only chronic condition I can think of is SVR or generals taking him out before he takes them out.

[db_zero]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

The only chronic condition I can think of is SVR or generals taking him out before he takes them out.

We don’t know. He is an absolute ruler who is bent on retaining power and status. It’s not like a democracy where information is generally open.

He could have some condition that was detected and it’s easy to see why someone in his position would want to keep that a secret.

I was diagnosed with a chronic condition-fortunately not fatal but believe me it will change your outlook on life, behavior and other aspects of life. 
 

It will also be explained that should it be necessary to get treatment or medication how it will change not only physical condition but also mental and psychological health.

The mention of many fimilar with Putin saying something seems off about him and his cavalier nuclear saber rattling may be more than just someone being power drunk.

I’ve seen people who were materialistic and told they had only a short time to live. They just sold everything and when on a wild binge knowing it was the last hurrah.

Edited March 3, 2022 by db_zero

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Old Afghan Veteran "Wait a minute.  You want 5-6 axis of advance, all having about 100-200 kms of hostile territory to cover in...sorry did he say 72 hours?  And then we have to hold those LOCs, right?  Oh, sorry, of course they will surrender their cities and not engage in urban warfare so we won't need those LOCs for more than 72 hours...hmm.  And how long was the air campaign?  Oh, about 24 days...well that makes sen...oh, you said 24 hours...wow, that is a little light, no?  And of course we will hit them with cyber attacks to cripple their C2, comms/internet instead...huh...ok, but what about social media...oh, right the total surrender thing.  Well for something this ambitious we must be leading with our best shock troops...oh, 3rd echelon who we aren't going to even tell what is going on...ok....well, good luck with that."

This Gentleman was last seen at the Polish Ukrainian border asking if he could trade some very interesting documents for a visa and an apartment.

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This Gentleman was last seen at the Polish Ukrainian border asking if he could trade some very interesting documents for a visa and an apartment.

Officer at border.  "What is this some kind of joke?  No one could be this inept."

[akd]

[dan/california]

This is the single most useful piece of information I have seen all week.  Really informative, his whole feed is excellent. We need to get a copy of the game.

[dan/california]

Get him....

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

I don't mention any names, but an ex dissident president thinks that Putin is a smart guy and still enjoys considerable support. Anywhere else he would be behind lock and key. Putin is sinister but he is not stupid. 

Personally, I don’t agree that he continues to have considerable support. What you are hearing in Oz mainly comes from a media here the demonizes him and his supporters while exulting the other side. He is indeed an egomaniac, and totally out of touch with reality. The problem is that he is in touch with the heart strings of a population of people who feel disenfranchised by the ultra liberal left-leaning politicians giving everything to Noncitizens and minorities, while they see their own being eroded. In the main, these are not bad people, but he is able to mobilize their support with speeches that are taken right out of Mien Kampf. Even his Vice President refused to go along with his ridiculous claims and performed according to his Oath of Office. Everyone has their village idiot. Unfortunately, ours was elected leader. At the same time, both of our major political parties are being controlled by their extremist elements, ad actually, I blame them for plowing the ground that allowed the flowering idiot to get elected.

This should serve as a warning, and an object lesson to all Democracies that have the honor of selecting their own leaders. We might blow it and elect one, but that doesn’t mean it has to happen twice. If it does, they deserve what they get

[sburke]

32 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This is the single most useful piece of information I have seen all week.  Really informative, his whole feed is excellent. We need to get a copy of the game.

that is just mind boggling.  My next door neighbor before she got evicted was a hoarder.  She had a car in her driveway that never moved that she used for additional storage.  That is pretty much how her tires went.

That isn't just some supply truck from a depot for crying out loud.

Edited March 3, 2022 by sburke

[Zveroboy1]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The fact that the LPR/DPR were actually able to break out does suggest that Ukraine's Donbas forces were pretty substantially degraded/withdrawn at some point since the beginning of the operation.

I am afraid this is the only part that really made sense for me in the whole thing : the Ukrainians having had to shift forces elsewhere before the invasion to react to the positioning of Russian forces in Belarus and thus weakening somewhat the Donbas front.

As far as encirclements are concerned, the only two places that look really threatened right now are the north east area from Shostka to Chernihiv and the south east area between Lysychansk and Kupiansk. And in both cases it looks like there is still a long way to go before they are complete.

And seeing how sluggish the whole Russian advance has been so far, it sounds likely that the defending UA troops could just pull back in time before they're trapped and thus avoid being encircled. Now the only real danger is perhaps becoming more vulnerable as a result if they're forced to leave their dug in positions they have had years to consolidate to move in the open.

And this is something I have been wondering too. To what extent does the UA have some freedom of maneuver outside of built up areas to reposition and counter attack ?

Edited March 3, 2022 by Zveroboy1

[chuckdyke]

I am a retiree myself and it is beyond me why he doesn't do what I do. Sit behind my PC and play Combat Mission. @Vet 0369 Ukraine agreement of 1994 in which they all agreed that the Ukraine give up their Soviet arsenal of nuclear weapons. Both Russia and the USA agreed to protect the Ukraine against foreign invaders. I suppose Russia is not regarded as a foreign invader. However, if the USA honored their agreement by assisting with boots on the grounds they would certainly be regarded by Putin as foreign invaders. Down in Oz I wonder at times how much our alliance is worth if it comes down to the nitty gritty. The twentieth century was known as the American century I am afraid the twenty-first century won't be.  Regards I enjoyed my vacation in the USA two years ago indeed friendly people I just watch all of it with sadness not with smugness like some CNN commentators. About Tucker Carlson, I won't dignify myself to comment on. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

This was funny on its own, but I suspect there is a video to go along with it?  I missed it, so would you please share with the class?

Steve

[akd]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This was funny on its own, but I suspect there is a video to go along with it?  I missed it, so would you please share with the class?

Steve

Of course there is.

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by akd

[Cobetco]

Ooh I've seen this behavior before. His tac Ai is telling him to go around and use the back door.

[Battlefront.com]

Hilarious!  Thanks.

This also hints at some other deficiency in Russian planning.  The supply situation is so bad that they had to task someone to go gather up glow sticks.  And even then, they could only spare one guy.

Seriously though... what the heck was this soldier trying to achieve and apparently on his own?

Steve

[Fenris]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Seriously though... what the heck was this soldier trying to achieve and apparently on his own?

Steve

 

He's looting.  Everyone is doing it, some more purposeful and with more success than others...

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Fenris

[akd]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hilarious!  Thanks.

This also hints at some other deficiency in Russian planning.  The supply situation is so bad that they had to task someone to go gather up glow sticks.  And even then, they could only spare one guy.

Seriously though... what the heck was this soldier trying to achieve and apparently on his own?

Steve

Well, the only thing he is getting from Techno House is rations of PlayStations and IPhones.

[Vet 0369]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

Of course there is.

 

I have also seen this behavior before, about 40 or so years ago in a news paper story about an attempted bank robbery in Italy. The “Red Brigade” attempted to rob a bank by shooting out the lock of the doors with sub machine guns. They pulled and pulled on the doors, but the doors didn’t budge, so they left in disgust. The picture in the news paper article was a closeup of the door with a sign that said “push” in Italian!. True story.

[Vet 0369]

29 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

I am a retiree myself and it is beyond me why he doesn't do what I do. Sit behind my PC and play Combat Mission. @Vet 0369 Ukraine agreement of 1994 in which they all agreed that the Ukraine give up their Soviet arsenal of nuclear weapons. Both Russia and the USA agreed to protect the Ukraine against foreign invaders. I suppose Russia is not regarded as a foreign invader. However, if the USA honored their agreement by assisting with boots on the grounds they would certainly be regarded by Putin as foreign invaders. Down in Oz I wonder at times how much our alliance is worth if it comes down to the nitty gritty. The twentieth century was known as the American century I am afraid the twenty-first century won't be.  Regards I enjoyed my vacation in the USA two years ago indeed friendly people I just watch all of it with sadness not with smugness like some CNN commentators. About Tucker Carlson, I won't dignify myself to comment on. 

Chuckdyke, for the sake of the thread, I’ll be happy to continue this discussion and swap stories about our sometimes good, sometimes stupid politicians in our PM. This isn’t really the place for it, and I share the guilt for continuing it here.

[chuckdyke]

Completely agree we have our fair share of silly politicians too. Kind regards.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This gentleman, and I am sure he is scholar, is absolutely correct...if this was a conventional war.  He is talking about a war long gone and the calculus makes no sense here.  Conventional Ukrainian forces in this sort of war are difficult to "cut off" at all because everywhere that they wind up, they are in friendly terrain.  So lets take that example up in that thread.  Say the Russians manage to pinch off from that fat bit on the Dnieper and link up at Horlivka trapping that "pocket".  By conventional metrics the Russians should be able to wait 72-96 hours and any Ukrainian force should be out of supply, cut of from C2 and ready to surrender, brilliant.  Very slow...damn near glacial, but nice and Soviet. 

... The deepest penetration I can see for the Russians (wikipedia) is about 150km along two very narrow corridors and we are heading into day 8, they have stalled...calling it

But!  This is already not a conventional war, the widescale arming of civilians and all those Molotovs was our first hint.  So if the Russians do create that southern pocket, they are looking at roughly 20000 sq kms of hostile civilian country that now have Ukrainian force integrated within them...and no air superiority.   The UA will have any and all gas it needs from the locals for a lot longer than 72 hours (not every town had a gas station in 1941) but eventually it will run out but not before it really messes thing up with what armor it keeps.  Further it is not like this has been Pear Harbor, the Ukrainians have stockpiled caches and planned for this exact fight.  So local support in the form of food and gas, ammo caches, medical support and recruits...and 20000 sq kms to hide in.  Further, the Russians seem incapable of shutting down internet (and with star link they might not be able to at all) so these now hybrid forces are not only connected back to HQ, they are connected to each other.  That is a nightmare occupation scenario if there ever was one.  

One can draw red lines on the map all day long but they are just that, lines.  They do not represent the actual situation on the ground by a long shot.  If one uses WW2 metrics, sure it looks bad but we are very far from that.  Finally this is in the south east in what was supposed to be a "soft" area from a support point of view, so it may actually work here if the locals opt out and start turning in UA, maybe.  Once you get west of the Dnieper, forget it.  You can pinch and encircle all you want but you are lying to yourself...you are the one who is encircled, unless you are willing to create camps and do mass evictions, which just makes your strategic situation worse (see: domestic support issues).

I have watched a few experts drawing lines like this was the Gulf War and unless the will of the Ukrainian people breaks on a massive scale (and there are no indications it will, in fact it has gone the other way), encirclement is a really bad idea as you now stretch out your forces along very long LOCs, surrounded by hostiles.   In fact this whole 5-6 prong attack was dumb, it looks like one of those "power point" ideas that the political level loves:

"We will hit them along all those axis and create a shock that will break their will", brilliant, clapping. 

Old Afghan Veteran "Wait a minute.  You want 5-6 axis of advance, all having about 100-200 kms of hostile territory to cover in...sorry did he say 72 hours?  And then we have to hold those LOCs, right?  Oh, sorry, of course they will surrender their cities and not engage in urban warfare so we won't need those LOCs for more than 72 hours...hmm.  And how long was the air campaign?  Oh, about 24 days...well that makes sen...oh, you said 24 hours...wow, that is a little light, no?  And of course we will hit them with cyber attacks to cripple their C2, comms/internet instead...huh...ok, but what about social media...oh, right the total surrender thing.  Well for something this ambitious we must be leading with our best shock troops...oh, 3rd echelon who we aren't going to even tell what is going on...ok....well, good luck with that."

In short, if the Russian government worked as hard on this operational plan as they have on trying to hide their money this thing might have really been over in 3 days.

Great stuff @The_Capt, and again, I hope it keeps devolving much as you say.

I especially like the idea of "who has whom encircled, again?" 

But [deep breath]....

Like Zveroboy, I remain skeptical of the 'open warfare' striking power of the UA forces for the time being. To me, they seem highly  fragmented, lightly armed, and also on the move now. We see mainly small infantry detachments in civilian cars, combing over abandoned Russian vehicles. Sure, such units can scrounge food and gas from civvies, but can they keep meaningful mech forces in the field for weeks?

...So I really don't know how well they can capitalize on RA blunders and lengthening supply lines to block or destroy those strung out BTGs before they reach the Dniepr.

The patriotic militias are basically static formations, tactically valueless at the moment outside their own communities. Unless of course the Russians actually do try city fighting, which I am starting to doubt.

 

What I fear most is that the "war of movement" will end in a few weeks, and this war will enter a terrible new phase. Let me spell out a 'worst case' scenario, and let you hack at it:

1. The RA will bypass or 'seal off' many urban centers, as well as huge swathes of 'hostile' country. Upon reaching the Dniepr, the BTG/RCTs will set up a web of fortified* cantonments / firebases to effectively interdict key crossings and road/rail junctions and assert 'control' over all of East Ukraine.

* I guess I need to disagree here with Steve that Russians can't figure out how to dig in, wire up and mine secure perimeters, as they did in A'stan.

2. While these bases' supply lines will surely remain under steady attack, the UA light infantry won't be able to stop all convoys. Once entrenched, RA forces will become far less exposed to their own organizational shortcomings, and improve their defenses against such positional attacks as the UA can conduct: raids, drone swarms, whatever.

3.  From those bases, the RA will be able to improve convoy security and over time, conduct seek and destroy operations as the weather improves, especially in the open steppe country.

(This all assumes btw Russia mobilizes for total war; Ukraine should not base its defense strategy on the presumption of a popular revolt and withdrawal)

4. From there, I fear time shifts in Russia's favour. Large populations of Ukrainian civilians will run out of food and other essentials of life as the Russians either shut off their supply chains, or wherever they can, place them under control of mafiya gangs -- monopoly for allegiance!

(yes, I've been rethinking my earlier notion that no Ukrainians will collaborate if the Russians demonstrate they are determined to stay. This tactic will likely work best in areas with many Russian speakers more likely to reconcile themselves to new rulers)

This will all create an awful economic and humanitarian disaster, depopulating many cities. Of course, the Russians will be only too happy to offer (non military aged male / non-ethnic Russian) refugees 'humanitarian' safe passage west across the Dniepr. Draining the guerrilla 'sea', as it were.

5. Wasteful, pointless and cruel? Completely! But within a year, Putin could 'create a wasteland and call it peace', even victory, according to his own logic.

A 'South Vietnam' scenario, sure, as an insurgency would drag on and on, but with a ruthless, stubborn occupier not interested in anyone's 'hearts and minds', and the West too scared of nuclear war to intervene.

... So what can the UA do to prevent this? Can it inflict heavy enough losses to force a withdrawal, or regime change before the Russians create 'facts on the ground'?

Edited March 3, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

Food and vodka are the obvious choices.

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hilarious!  Thanks.

This also hints at some other deficiency in Russian planning.  The supply situation is so bad that they had to task someone to go gather up glow sticks.  And even then, they could only spare one guy.

Seriously though... what the heck was this soldier trying to achieve and apparently on his own?

Steve

 

[Zveroboy1]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

..So I really don't know how well they can capitalize on RA blunders and lengthening supply lines to block or destroy those strung out BTGs before they reach the Dniepr.

This raises one question though, especially in the north east sector, you see what appears to be BTGs advancing along the road network towards the west but how much staying power do these formations really have? Aren't they going to run out of steam soon? I think it was Haiduk who said they don't even operate as a whole formation but in small detachments too. It is possible their combat power becomes too degraded soon to operate effectively.