How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Sarjen]

Regarding the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia: the Donets Basin is only a means to an end. Unlike Crimea, the Donbass does not play a military or geostrategic role for the Kremlin. Moscow does not need the Donbass; it serves only as a lever to destabilize and influence Ukraine. A compromise on the Donbass would therefore not satisfy Moscow's real interests. But it would show Moscow, that the western nations are still weak.

The Kremlin might infer that further concessions would be possible: For example, it could calculate that if the West were willing to ignore international law to resolve the Donbass conflict, something could be derived from this for the Transnistria conflict. Could Biden, von der Leyen, Scholz and Macron talk to Selensky about reopening the North Crimean Canal and restoring fresh water supplies to Crimea? Could Washington and Brussels not lobby Kiev to respect the multicultural history of Odessa and Bessarabia and support Moscow in creating two autonomous regions in southern Ukraine? And so on and so forth. Putin will not end until he has the whole of Ukraine.

But all in all i think the people of Ukraine won't allow an agreement with abandonment of the Donbass. And then there are the reparations payments Russia has to do. Ukraine won't allow Russia to not pay for the damage.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Sarjen

[womble]

6 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

Ukraine won't allow Russia to not pay for the damage.

I don't think Ukraine can force Russia to pay for the damage they've done. If Russia wants, they can just walk away from Ukraine, and it'll be (as far as Ukraine's direct influence is concerned) staus quo ante. They can retain their posture in the self-declared autonomous regions which UKR has been unable to retake in years, because they have local support. They'll remain in Crimea. At the moment, UKR doesn't have the weight of metal to take back anything the Russians or their puppets held last Wednesday.

No, forcing reparations has to be achieved by the pressure from the international community. A cost of the lifting of sanctions. I don't know whether Europe/US is determined enough to maintain the sanctions for that purpose at this time. I hope they are. I want them to be. Playing nice with the Russians has just led them to think they can get away with anything.

[CHEqTRO]

The swedes are also going to send some missiles as well, after all

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Sarjen said:

Regarding the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia: the Donets Basin is only a means to an end. Unlike Crimea, the Donbass does not play a military or geostrategic role for the Kremlin. Moscow does not need the Donbass; it serves only as a lever to destabilize and influence Ukraine. A compromise on the Donbass would therefore not satisfy Moscow's real interests. But it would show Moscow, that the western nations are still weak.

This!

In my assessment of conditions prior to Wednesday I had presumed that Russia was going to openly recognize and reinforce DLPR, then dare the Ukrainians to try and take it back.  This wouldn't achieve any immediate strategic goal for Putin, but it would incrementally advance him towards it.  The move would also be small enough that Europe and the US would probably waffle about meaningfully opposing it just like after the 2014 invasion.

After doing this they could have increased the pressure on Ukraine for concessions and might have actually gotten some.  Then Putin could get ready for his next incremental move.

In order to do this he needed to surprise the West just like he did in 2014.  Grabbing Crimea before anybody could register what was happening worked very well because nobody wanted to initiate a war over a situation where there was none.  And Russia kept the Donbas so messy that no Western leader wanted to try and sort through it all.  Putin didn't get everything he wanted (far from it, in fact), but he did move things in that direction without taking a huge hit for it.

The utter stupidity of this war is that even if he duplicated the 2014 level of surprise (not likely due to the prolonged and massive buildup) AND Ukraine folded up quickly as Putin expected, the long term goals would likely not be ultimately met.  Insurgency alone would preclude that.  However, the sheer stupidity of going forward with this plan even though the US broadcasted the plan so loudly and publicly is mind boggling to me even now.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, womble said:

I don't think Ukraine can force Russia to pay for the damage they've done. If Russia wants, they can just walk away from Ukraine, and it'll be (as far as Ukraine's direct influence is concerned) staus quo ante. They can retain their posture in the self-declared autonomous regions which UKR has been unable to retake in years, because they have local support. They'll remain in Crimea. At the moment, UKR doesn't have the weight of metal to take back anything the Russians or their puppets held last Wednesday.

No, forcing reparations has to be achieved by the pressure from the international community. A cost of the lifting of sanctions. I don't know whether Europe/US is determined enough to maintain the sanctions for that purpose at this time. I hope they are. I want them to be. Playing nice with the Russians has just led them to think they can get away with anything.

Forced reparations can be a precondition for lifting sanctions, as you say.  I think that's a real possibility, but only with Putin gone.  He's crossed the line too many times.  Fortunately, I think that his numbered days ruling Russia just got cut down significantly.  Each day the war drags out, the shorter those days become.

Steve

[BeondTheGrave]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Forced reparations can be a precondition for lifting sanctions, as you say.  I think that's a real possibility, but only with Putin gone.  He's crossed the line too many times.  Fortunately, I think that his numbered days ruling Russia just got cut down significantly.  Each day the war drags out, the shorter those days become.

Steve

Everyone said the same about Saddam. Once the immediate crisis resolves itself (or even before then) I think someone will take a shot at the 'throne.' Authoritarian regimes are, ultimately, Hobsian. The strongest rules. Putin may keep power, but hell have to clean house to do it. Maybe not as visibly and violently as Saddam did in '91, but I wouldn't be surprised if heads roll. Look for show trials in the next few years. Maybe even Vladdy's! 

[Sarjen]

Netherlands contribution to Ukraine is on the way.

[Battlefront.com]

And now, a few words from our sponsor... Mother Nature.

Yet another indicator that Russia planned on having things largely wrapped up by now is that the weather is now getting to the point of being unpredictable.  Spring like weather can happen at any time, and even a few days of thawing (especially if combined with rain) will change the nature of this war significantly.

Looking at the weather forecast for this week, above freezing during the day is the norm with at least 2-4 days with good chance of rain this week.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Kyiv+Kiev+Ukraine?canonicalCityId=0b66fcc8c4490e8b96bcf6af087a80df429e7ce442645cf1a27546703dbd551a

Why is this so important?  General Mud comes onto the battlefield.

The sector this is most relevant to is the forces trying to come into Kiev from the west, take Kharkiv, and move south to link up with the Crimean based forces.  They have had snow and generally cold temperatures, so the ground is fairly solid.  That should change this week.

If you look at the map, Ukraine holds most of the significant road junctions and has positions that can threaten the one main supply route that Russia currently has available to it for the march on Kiev.  This means once General Mud makes his move, the already troubled Russian supply situation will get much worse.  And whatever does move will be on a few roads that Ukraine has already shown skill at interdicting.

Friday I said that today (Sunday) would likely be decisive.  I stick by that.  I don't think Russia has the time it needs to pull a rabbit out of its urshanka. By tomorrow I think Russia's defeat will be locked in as near certain.  And yes, I'm even including the possibility of Putin widening the war from Belarus into western Ukraine.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

However, the sheer stupidity of going forward with this plan even though the US broadcasted the plan so loudly and publicly is mind boggling to me even now.

As a "Putin watcher", do you think he might have developed some kind of mental condition and that this could be the underlying reason for what we are seeing now?

Edited February 27, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Everyone said the same about Saddam. Once the immediate crisis resolves itself (or even before then) I think someone will take a shot at the 'throne.' Authoritarian regimes are, ultimately, Hobsian. The strongest rules. Putin may keep power, but hell have to clean house to do it. Maybe not as visibly and violently as Saddam did in '91, but I wouldn't be surprised if heads roll. Look for show trials in the next few years. Maybe even Vladdy's! 

Saddam survived in part because the Coalition didn't try and occupy.  Iraq was on the defensive and I don't think the every day Iraqi thought they had a chance to win against the Coalition.  If Saddam had been defeated by Kuwait, I don't think he would have survived either. 

The analogy here is that Kuwait is to Saddam as Ukraine is to Putin.

Putin's grip on power is extremely strong, but no absolute leader rules on his own.  Putin can only survive if the oligarchs, the military, and/or the security services allow it.  The oligarchs are very unhappy now, the military is being humiliated, and the there is indication that the intel services were not fully supportive of this venture.

There almost certainly was an attempted coup against Putin in 2014.  He came out on top mostly because he won things for Russia at no immediate cost.  That is absolutely not the case this time around.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Saddam survived in part because the Coalition didn't try and occupy.  Iraq was on the defensive and I don't think the every day Iraqi thought they had a chance to win against the Coalition.  If Saddam had been defeated by Kuwait, I don't think he would have survived either. 

The analogy here is that Kuwait is to Saddam as Ukraine is to Putin.

Putin's grip on power is extremely strong, but no absolute leader rules on his own.  Putin can only survive if the oligarchs, the military, and/or the security services allow it.  The oligarchs are very unhappy now, the military is being humiliated, and the there is indication that the intel services were not fully supportive of this venture.

There almost certainly was an attempted coup against Putin in 2014.  He came out on top mostly because he won things for Russia at no immediate cost.  That is absolutely not the case this time around.

Steve

All very interesting, Steve. Keep it coming please. Same for all of you, guys.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[BeondTheGrave]

The Abraham Lincoln brigade lives again. Though there was a post on r/CombatFootage as of day 1 in which men with heavy British, Scottish, and a generically stereotypically American voices were (allegedly) participating in a combat operation somewhere in country. No follow up as to the nature of the deployment, though in many ways PMC operators are the world's 'dirty little secret.' 

 

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Saddam survived in part because the Coalition didn't try and occupy.  Iraq was on the defensive and I don't think the every day Iraqi thought they had a chance to win against the Coalition.  If Saddam had been defeated by Kuwait, I don't think he would have survived either. 

Thats a really good point. It does change the dynamic. Personally though I wouldn't count Putin out, but its going to be a pretty hard fight for him ahead. I wonder if sending in the 'guard' would even been the right move. The court divisions may soon be called on to defend the Tsar himself. 

And on the economic front ^ tomorrow MoEx is going to be as vital a battlefield as Kiev or Kharkov. 

Edited February 27, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[CHEqTRO]

2nd Nagorno Kharabakh War vibes

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I dont think there is a single country more dedicated to European integration than Russia. It seems like everything they have done over the last seventy years has been in the pursuit of tying all of Europe together into a single coherent block, just its against Russia not for it 

I wonder if Russia will ever realize what Germany did: Its easier to just book a vacation to French Alsace than it is to make Paris German. 

The Japanese had the same revelation about Hawaii, it is much easier to just buy the place.

[CHEqTRO]

Also, it seems that the Turks are going to go ahead and partially close the bosphorus:

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

As a "Putin watcher", do you think he might have developed some kind of mental condition and that this could be the underlying reason for what we are seeing now?

Yes.

To many watchers there is almost no similarity in Putin's actions, speeches, demands, risk assessments, etc. in 2022 than in at any time prior.  Something is very different about 2022 Putin compared to 2014 Putin.

There's been a lot of professional speculation, but here's my layman's thinking.

As Humans age certain personality "defects" become more pronounced.  The less stable the environment around the person, the more potential for behavioral change.  Also the more extreme.

Then there is the whole genetic thing where some people are just predisposed to going a particular route over time.

Putin has always been paranoid.  You can not be a good KGB field officer without that quality.  Paranoia tends to be one of those things that gets worse over time.  Especially if the environment is unstable.  Autocracies, for all their outward appearances, are extremely unstable.  In particular because there's a long history of Russian leaders being deposed (several losing their lives).

Many people who really known Putin, in fact have met him, have said that the two years of COVID has led to a rapid mental breakdown situation.  It's actually pretty easy to see even by someone like me who only watches him as a hobby.  We all know people, personally, who haven't done well in the COVID years so it is absolutely not surprising to see him being negatively affected by it.

Note that I have not called Putin "insane".  I don't know that he qualifies for that yet.  But he is clearly acting irrationally and discarding decades of behaviors that have served him very well.  I am sure those around him are well aware of his change and there's no chance they aren't already talking about contingency plans to some degree.

Steve

 

[Aragorn2002]

 

[akd]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

Isn't that ? (2020 report)

I thought one regiment was on another type, but maybe not. My hazy memory is that one regiment went from T-80BV to T-80BVM recently.

Edited February 27, 2022 by akd

[The_Capt]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The utter stupidity of this war is that even if he duplicated the 2014 level of surprise (not likely due to the prolonged and massive buildup) AND Ukraine folded up quickly as Putin expected, the long term goals would likely not be ultimately met.  Insurgency alone would preclude that.  However, the sheer stupidity of going forward with this plan even though the US broadcasted the plan so loudly and publicly is mind boggling to me even now.

I think the term we are searching for is "progressive unreality" and it happened to the US in '03 as well.  It is where the logic gets somewhat narrowed by a set of more and more unrealistic assumptions that look realistic from inside the chamber. 

Clearly Vlad and the gang were looking for shock and awe that would paralyze the Ukrainian will to fight.  They likely built a house of cards assumptions/logic along the way that made very tenuous connections between A, B and C but once you are "inside the bubble" they become perfectly logical.   The problem is that there is no robustness to the system and if things do not go exactly as planned...well...bad.  I also smell hubris here, likely a belief that the Ukrainians would not or could not actually resist because they are "less than us".

This all becomes a "good idea to show the world we still got game" built on some really shaky echo chamber logic.  It is still early days but if you do not want the locals to really get a head of steam you need to convince them quickly that resistance is totally useless or will not be needed, Russia has accomplished neither.  The fact that we can even see Ukrainian strikes, empty Russian vehicles and Russian POWs is a very bad sign that this whole thing has gone sideways from a Russian point of view.  More to the point, Russia is not controlling the narrative here, Ukraine is.

In simpler terms, Russian option space is shrinking (as demonstrated by nuclear sabre rattling), while Ukrainian option space still wide open and when you are invading another country that is about as bad as it gets.  This ain't over yet but the Russians need a big win and to put it out loud and proud or at best this is going to be a very long slog for them.

The bigger picture is that the world order likely shifted in the last week and we are likely into some sort of weird Second Cold War that has in reality been building for years.

[Taranis]

3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

 

He shot a burst in the grounds

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Japanese had the same revelation about Hawaii, it is much easier to just buy the place.

As someone who has a family member married to a Japanese family that owns a huge mansion right on the water's edge on Oahu... yup

The point about Russia's dependence on the West for its general increase in living standard is well documented.  While it has survived the sanctions caused by the first invasion of Ukraine, it's definitely impacted.  Cutting them off from the West financially is going to have a massive and very sudden impact.  If anybody thinks the oligarchs are happy about being cut off from their money and their playgrounds, think again.

Putin might have got his super yacht out of Germany before the war began, but he didn't clue in the oligarchs so they are in a different boat (see what I did there?  I'm so clever!).

Steve

[Lethaface]

With Germany now agreeing to supply weapons (and so also opened airspace for it) / joint EU effort, I guess all weapons enroute to Ukraine can be flown directly to Rzeszow (PL), which is not even 200km from Lviv. 

[BeondTheGrave]

Like SWIFT, I didn't think it would happen. Here we are. This is endgame, 1944, stuff. How can Putin continue if hes even lost Turkey, NATO's weak link? There are two roads forward, total withdraw from Ukraine or a freight train towards Iran/North Korea status. 

[Haiduk]

Inhabitants of Dniprorudne town, Zaporizhzhia oblast, led by their mayor blocked the entrance to own town to Russian tanks. After short dialogue Russians have driven away. Looks like this was the same "small raid group" of current war Russian tactic, meant above. On the other video, filmed from the railroad bridge above the road, looks like the citizens were ready to use molotov coctails if the tanks would try to go further... 

 

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

I think it's safe to say this video will give a lot of other towns some ideas!

Steve