How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[melm]

I'm afraid Putin doesn't want to reconcile with Ukraine. What in his mind is 'Heck, Ukraine has already turned west, Russia has no way to befriend her. Then why not just grab more land from her and boost Russian territory, at least Russia is bigger?“ Then invasion happens. 

[John Kettler]

BletchleyGeek,

That was a most valuable and insightful article on Russian logistics. Never saw anything like it during my 11+ years as a Soviet Threat Analyst. Back then, we were trying desperately to find ways to kill--quickly and in great numbers--Soviet and Warsaw Pact tanks, though I'm sure the US Air Force would've been hitting such key targets as critical bridges. Back then, we also has no counter to the foe's HAS's, yet our HAS's (TAB-V) were killable by it. They also had highly capable runway killing BETAB dibber bombs and a robust modular rapid runway repair setup. Worked on the B-1B CCWG (Conventional Capabilities Working Group) at Rockwell, and we were investigating things like attacks on the railroad gauge switchover points, certain bridges, and I made the discovery that the railroad network for one WP country was basically functionally the same as the electrified rail or overhead wire systems in the US. Knock out the power to the rails, and no more trains move! In turn, this led to targeting the power plants and related facilities providing the juice to run the railroads.

Haiduk,

Delighted to hear from you, and may you and yours be safe. With good targeting data, am sure the Red Army isn't enjoying the Pion concert.

Other CMers in Ukraine, please check in. Not exactly sure of your Forum names, other than BigDuke6, from whom I haven't seen a post since at least last year. 

Russian CMers,

On a related note, ISTR at least one of our Russian colleagues is in the Red Army. Believe it's Kalugin. Wonder where he is and how he's doing?

All,

Was today news deficient ref combat reporting, because it seems to me most of the posts made after I put up the military-specific Euromaid Press posts, then went to bed for ~8 hours, largely do not focus on combat?

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 26, 2022 by John Kettler

[arkhangelsk2021]

1 minute ago, John Kettler said:

Was today news deficient ref combat reporting, because it seems to me most of the posts made after I put up the military-specific Euromaid Press posts, then went to bed for ~8 hours, largely do not focus on combat?

There's definitely a slowdown of new progress on the war today. The latest update on liveuamap.com is now over 4 hours old. No one knows if the Russians have advanced past Kyiv Zoo or whether they've been repulsed since then, nor the status of the Eastern prong which has several hours ago reached a power station east of Kyiv.

[borg]

Second IL-76 shot down over Ukraine . Full of paratroopers. Incredible UKR !!! 

[John Kettler]

archangelsk2021,

Thanks for the update. Was surprised to see so many posts and so little battle reporting.

Here's some fresh combat reporting.

 

OSINTtechnical

 

@Osinttechnical

·

20m

 

The Ukrainians actually managed to knock out two IL-76s. Probably a pretty bad situation on the ground for the VDV in Vasylkiv.

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rob Lee

 

@RALee85

· 21m

Two US officials confirmed that Ukraine shot down a second Il-76 transport aircraft tonight. If true, this would be a really significant mistake for the Russian military, and possibly the worst loss of life for the Russian Airborne Forces since the 2nd Chechen War. twitter.com/JimLaPorta/sta…

Show this thread

 

 

 

 

 

 

OSINTtechnical

 

@Osinttechnical

·

37m

 

Looks like the Russians did try an air assault in Vasylkiv. Heavy fighting reported in the city now.

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Michael A. Horowitz

 

@michaelh992

· 44m

The Mayor of Vasylkiv reported a major Russian landing in Vasylkiv, fighting in the city and casualties. #Ukrainian 40th Brigade and Territorial Defense Forces responded to the attack.

Show this thread

 

FB live streamed a powerful MRL strike, but I can't get the link to copy. It happened 1 hr ago, and OSINTtechnical is working to determine where.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[BeondTheGrave]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

It like there has been a glitch in the Matrix.  I am sure they will be trying to figure this one out for some time.

I dont think anyone is going to know the answer to this for quite a while, unless there is some 1989 style overnight collapse in Moscow and the archives fly open. 

My own personal pet theory is that this operation has been in planning a while, some people think over a year. But I bet before Thanksgiving it was very limited to what were seeing today. I wonder how much NATO detection of his warplans unraveled Putin's original scheme and forced him in to a 'lose-lose' situation. Back down and look weak, or go in hole hog and risk a bloody nose. Let me propose an alternative history. Imagine if there had been no warning. Putin's false flag goes off and "Ukrainian Nazi militias" carry out atrocities in the contested regions. Putin declares that in order to secure these places from "genocide" Russian troops have to move in to secure the constitutional borders. The two full oblasts are secured thanks to a quick Russian offensive. Kiev and the west are paralyzed thanks to major Russian forces along the border and Putin's threat that if they intervein those troops will invade. As the Russian troops move forward mass graves from the "genocide" are uncovered and blasted across western media thanks to RT and other sockpuppet accounts. Seems to me to be in keeping for vladdy daddy. But US early detection and early warning A) killed the viability of the other plan while B ) ratcheting up the stakes. If the US demands the Russians back down, well Putin's brand is invested in not caving to western pressure. Every day he didn't invade made Biden look like he was bullying the bully. Cant have that. So ultimately Putin had to resort to the contingency plan, full strike with half assed mastrovika then back down. 

To me that lends credibility to this being a foreign adventure to salvage sagging domestic popularity. Gin up a quick intervention to make him look like a hero. But without Syria what adventures are there to get in to? Maybe Georgia? The only other hotspots right now it seems are with China in Asia. Ukraine then is really the only good pressure point. In my opinion Putin is a very logically oriented thinker, but while his plans are operationally very complicated his strategic thinking is both clear and remarkably consistent. He wants to dig the west's eye, rebuild a historically great Russia, and establish an alternative world order. And to be seen doing it so that he can keep the bear minimum support needed to stay in power. Pressing the Ukraine pressure point does all those things. Problem is, you can only do the same move so many times before you get caught. 

The other big unanswered question I have: What was the political and economic situation in the DR/LR like this past winter? Were they on the verge of collapse? Peace? Negotiations? Did they need a big bailout? The other important impetus for a move like this would be the fear that Putin's established position, his preferred status quo, is about to be challenged. The fear of losing what you have, plus the desire to be seen doing something big, are very powerful motivating factors in foreign policy. 

[DMS]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Then suddenly Putin wakes up one morning and says to himself, “hell let’s see if all out war will work”…?  Does not add up.  Further, what is the crisis worth risking all this?  Some say Ukraine entry into NATO but it was not like they were having the induction ceremony this week.  There was plenty of rumbling in the west to slow roll Ukraine entry for this exact reason.  So why the sudden need for extreme escalation?  

I think that reason is simple. He is afraid that U.S. will set missile systems in Ukraine and Moscow will be under strike in 4-5 minutes after launch. He said it during his TV speech about war, I don't think that he is lying in this case. Biden refused to give guarantees that it won't happen, so he attacked...

Why now? Some strategical reasons. Lukashenko is ally now (in 2014 he was neutral), weather, military readiness e.t.c.

Edited February 26, 2022 by DMS

[BeondTheGrave]

2 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

archangelsk2021,

Thanks for the update. Was surprised to see so many posts and so little battle reporting.

Here's some fresh combat reporting.

 

OSINTtechnical

 

@Osinttechnical

·

20m

 

The Ukrainians actually managed to knock out two IL-76s. Probably a pretty bad situation on the ground for the VDV in Vasylkiv.

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rob Lee

 

@RALee85

· 21m

Two US officials confirmed that Ukraine shot down a second Il-76 transport aircraft tonight. If true, this would be a really significant mistake for the Russian military, and possibly the worst loss of life for the Russian Airborne Forces since the 2nd Chechen War. twitter.com/JimLaPorta/sta…

Show this thread

 

 

 

 

 

 

OSINTtechnical

 

@Osinttechnical

·

37m

 

Looks like the Russians did try an air assault in Vasylkiv. Heavy fighting reported in the city now.

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Michael A. Horowitz

 

@michaelh992

· 44m

The Mayor of Vasylkiv reported a major Russian landing in Vasylkiv, fighting in the city and casualties. #Ukrainian 40th Brigade and Territorial Defense Forces responded to the attack.

Show this thread

 

FB live streamed a powerful MRL strike, but I can't get the link to copy. It happened 1 hr ago, and OSINTtechnical is working to determine where.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

The second transport plane today? What a ****up. I feel bad for the guys, Russian or not. 

[borg]

1 minute ago, BeondTheGrave said:

The second transport plane today? What a ****up. I feel bad for the guys, Russian or not. 

RUS should either suck up & take THEIR country back from Putin, or leave UKR alone. How many more have to die to satisfy putin’s desire ? LEAVE UKR alone I say. 

[John Kettler]

Spot research indicates a single Il-76/CANDID can carry 140 paratroopers, but if 3 x BMD series are carried as well, don't know how many paratroopers can be carried. Video I've seen of VDV training clearly showed the BMDs are dropped first, followed by the paratroopers. Didn't count chutes! If any of those aircraft was carrying paratroopers, then the Russians just took a huge instantaneous troop loss from an elite force, and those VDV already on the ground at Vasylkiv and hard pressed are in a world of hurt.

Here is almost certainly the root of our lack of battle reports. The key Ukrainian internet provider is practically in collapse.


 

OSINTtechnical

 

@Osinttechnical

·

2h

 

Replying to

@Osinttechnical

 

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Kyiv Independent

 

@KyivIndependent

· 2h

An attack on a military unit in Kyiv repelled by Ukraine's military. Russian invading forces attacked a military unit on Kyiv’s left bank overnight, but Ukraine’s forces were able to successfully fight it off, according to the Land forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Edited February 26, 2022 by John Kettler

[akd]

26 minutes ago, DMS said:

I think that reason is simple. He is afraid that U.S. will set missile systems in Ukraine and Moscow will be under strike in 4-5 minutes after launch. He said it during his TV speech about war, I don't think that he is lying in this case. Biden refused to give guarantees that it won't happen, so he attacked...

Why now? Some strategical reasons. Lukashenko is ally now (in 2014 he was neutral), weather, military readiness e.t.c.

This is BS.  Biden specifically offered to negotiate on arms control, which would include strategic weapons deployments and basing.  That is not what Putin demanded.  Putin demanded Ukraine be left open to attack by Russia if Putin deems it desirable. No defenses. No security agreements.

This is not about NATO defensive security pact. It is about having a successful, non-authoritarian Little Brother right on the borders with Big Brother.

Edited February 26, 2022 by akd

[John Kettler]

Absent other confirming info, I don't necessarily buy the pic has anything at all to do with NLAW combat use.

https://twitter.com/LaserGuy3/status/1497407464760909824/photo/1

GoogleMaps display of situation 2 hrs ago. Fire is hitting Kviv from north and northwest.

https://twitter.com/MikeHendricks16/status/1497404384870907907/photo/1

 

KeraBelzebub

 

@BelzebubKera

·

1h

 

Replying to

@Osinttechnical

RU columns advancing only trough long avenues, they made themselves "long", easy to cut off, and they are not capturing neighborhoods. When/if they come to narrow streets, city quarters, it will be hard for them.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by John Kettler

[chuckdyke]

1994 Ukraine made a big mistake. The nuclear weapons on its soil went back to Russia. If they could say: Stop otherwise there is no more Moscow. I don't think Russia would ever have started it.

 

[BletchleyGeek]

34 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

That was a most valuable and insightful article on Russian logistics> Never saw anything like it during my 11+ years as a Soviet Threat Analyst. Back then, we were trying desperately to find ways to kill--quickly and in great numbers--Soviet and Warsaw Pact tanks, though I'm sure the US Air Force would've been hitting such key targets as critical bridges. Back then, we also has no counter to the foe's HAS's, yet our HAS's (TAB-V) were killable by it. They also had highly capable runway killing BETAB dibber bombs and a robust modular rapid runway repair setup. Worked on the B-1B CCWG (Conventional Capabilities Working Group) at Rockwell, and we were investigating things like attacks on the railroad gauge switchover points, certain bridges, and I made the discovery that the railroad network for one WP country was basically functionally the same as the electrified rail or overhead wire systems in the US. Knock out the power to the rails, and no more trains move! In turn, this led to targeting the power plants and related facilities providing the juice to run the railroads.

When I read the article it kind of sounded a  bit archaic - railroads? like in the time of Von Moltke the Elder? But yes, if you want to move great volumes of stuff and fast... you use railroads (or ships).

[Aragorn2002]

39 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

All,

Was today news deficient ref combat reporting, because it seems to me most of the posts made after I put up the military-specific Euromaid Press posts, then went to bed for ~8 hours, largely do not focus on combat?

Regards,

John Kettler

What's wrong with that? This ain't your thread and as long as Probus doesn't complains I don't see the problem. Don't get me wrong, the military/combat posts are indeed more interesting, but people must also be able to discuss more than that.

[Aragorn2002]

11 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

1994 Ukraine made a big mistake. The nuclear weapons on its soil went back to Russia. If they could say: Stop otherwise there is no more Moscow. I don't think Russia would ever have started it.

 

They probably trusted the West to protect them. Big mistake.

[John Kettler]

Zelensky shows himself to be a real wartime leader. Unfortunately, the video link didn't copy.
LIVE

Ukrainian troops fight Russian advance on Kyiv

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has declined a US request to evacuate Kyiv, citing "the fight is here, I need ammunition not a ride," AP reports. Zelenskyy has warned of further attacks, stating that Russian troops will "storm" the capital city of Kyiv, which has been hit by airstrikes as clashes continue on the outskirts.

9 hours ago, the mayor of Kviv was already reporting Russian sabotage attacks there.
 

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[Aragorn2002]

31 minutes ago, akd said:

This is BS.  Biden specifically offered to negotiate on arms control, which would include weapons deployments and basing.  That is not what Russia demanded.  Putin demanded Ukraine be left open to attack by Russia if Putin deems it desirable. No defenses. No security agreements.

This is not about NATO defensive security pact. It is about having a successful, non-authoritarian Little Brother right on the borders with Big Brother.

Well said, akd. Fed up with such comments from Kremlin fanboys, while seeing Kiev burning. 

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[John Kettler]

11 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

When I read the article it kind of sounded a  bit archaic - railroads? like in the time of Von Moltke the Elder? But yes, if you want to move great volumes of stuff and fast... you use railroads (or ships).

The Red Army was and is critically dependent on railroads to this day. Their tanks have highly limited operating hours and track life, plus nowhere nearly enough tank transporters to move them. Believe it's around 400 total. Consequently, armor, artillery, logistics and pretty much everything else must go by rail. True during the Cold War and maybe even more true today, given the proliferation of ammo gobbling MRLs, SPHs, etc,

Regards,

John Kettler

[DMS]

1 hour ago, akd said:

This is BS.  Biden specifically offered to negotiate on arms control, which would include strategic weapons deployments and basing.  That is not what Putin demanded.  Putin demanded Ukraine be left open to attack by Russia if Putin deems it desirable. No defenses. No security agreements.

This is not about NATO defensive security pact. It is about having a successful, non-authoritarian Little Brother right on the borders with Big Brother.

You guys ask why Putin attacked, I try to translate you reasons that were mentioned in Putin's and other officials speeches, your reaction is "emotional". Ok, I won't discomfort you.

[akd]

1 minute ago, DMS said:

You guys ask why Putin attacked, I try to translate you reasons that were mentioned in Putin's and other officials speeches, your reaction is "emotional". Ok, I won't discomfort you.

Sorry, I have friends in Ukraine, and haven’t heard from one of them in over 24 hours (Mariupol). Lies are lies and should be called such.

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, DMS said:

You guys ask why Putin attacked, I try to translate you reasons that were mentioned in Putin's and other officials speeches, your reaction is "emotional". Ok, I won't discomfort you.

You're constantly excusing the aggression against a practically defenseless country by a criminal and evil regime and have done so for a long time. Yeah, that does stir up some emotions, especially while watching burning buidings and wounded, scared people at the same time on tv. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[CHEqTRO]

11 minutes ago, DMS said:

You guys ask why Putin attacked, I try to translate you reasons that were mentioned in Putin's and other officials speeches, your reaction is "emotional". Ok, I won't discomfort you.

It is a BS reason because we would already have the capability to strike Moscow within 5 minutes, following the logic from Putin, from the Baltic states. I dont know why we should take Kremlin declarations at face value, when they were saying that they were not going to invade Ukraine, neither recognize the republics until like 5 days ago, along other series of lies. Putin and Lavrov are talking now of ""liberating"" Ukraine from its Nazi leadership, not about whatever BS "security guaranties" they wanted. So dont worry, you dont discomfort us, it would be just plain stupidity/ignorance to believe that that is the reason, and It has nothing to do with "emotions".

[akd]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

You're constantly excusing the aggression against a practically defenseless country by a criminal and evil regime. Yeah, that does stir up some emotions, especially while watching burning buidings and wounded, scared people at the same time on tv. 

I’ll admit, I overreacted. Let’s not take it too far with emotive language and stick to what is happening.

Said to be crowds in Moscow chanting “glory to Ukraine.” I don’t have mental bandwidth to verify right now, but will remove if it is not attributed correctly:

 

[chuckdyke]

First for the Russian apologist. Russia is defending itself. Against whom, Ukraine? Ukraine joining NATO? Only a single NATO country has to say no. I suspect behind the scenes a few have told Putin they would Veto it. Vladimir has only one agenda and that is restoring the Soviet empire.