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BletchleyGeek

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  1. Like
    BletchleyGeek got a reaction from Zveroboy1 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They have, but just imagine floating that idea in a brewery in Prague circa 1943. You may have ended in the river...
    You raise a good topic of discussion, that this is not just a test of wills, ideologies, means, etc. but also a battle of myths. The Ukranian myth will go on since many Ukrainians have chosen to fight rather than roll over. One of the causes of this war is the Russian myth of cultural, military and political hegemony over all the lands east of the Vistula. This mythical dimension is strong for both sides in this war.
  2. Like
    BletchleyGeek got a reaction from Pete Wenman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A well-written and cautious summary of developments (in Spanish)
    https://www.revistaejercitos.com/2022/03/01/guerra-de-ucrania-dia-6/
    of most interest for folks here are the three situation maps shown in the article: the first one which comes from a Russian source and looks very optimistic, another from the Institute for the Study of War which seems to underestimate the progress of the Russian Armed Forces along the coast of the Sea of Azov, and the third one, which neatly interpolates the 2nd with clear reports of Mariupol having been encircled (and fierce fighting around the city).
    Also very useful to make sense of the stream of videos and photos is this website 
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
    that works quite hard to geo locate videos/photos/claims and cross-reference all that data. A few days ago I was wondering about where was the "top-end" Russian kit, and it does seem that is starting to appear in the lists of confirmed destroyed vehicles.
    I am with @LongLeftFlank and other OSINT people that these supply raids and interdiction may snowball and become a very important factor in how things play out over the next few days. What we're seeing is very much in line with the analysis of the article from War on the Rocks that I (and probably others, this thread is a monster) shared a few days ago. From that analysis the most sensible strategy was to avoid a "decisive" engagement in the frontiers and go for the supply lines, and it seems that is precisely what the UKR forces are doing for the moment.
    The other very significative thing that many of you have raised is that there's seemingly a lot of open radio comms that are being snooped by radio aficionados from around the world. I look forward to see if someone can make sense out of all that Russian armed forces radio chatter. There are also several reports of equipment being just... abandoned.
    I am also very much horrified by seeing the effects of Russian artillery on civilian areas, again, after what transpired in Aleppo (or with less means, in Sarajevo, going back in time). I have no words for that.
    To all the Ukrainian friends here, please take care of yourselves if you have not already joined your army. To all the peace-loving, decent Russian friends here, I am not going to ask impossible stuff. I just remember this quote from One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich:
    A genius doesn't adjust his treatment of a theme to a tyrant's taste
  3. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to kraze in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    CMBS also has Ukrainians as the weakest ground force. Time to rebalance the game eh
  4. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to akd in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  5. Like
    BletchleyGeek reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As a Toronto native, I endorse this message. And...
     
     
     
  6. Like
    BletchleyGeek reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, hey maybe they have got some people on staff but a few tours in the sand makes them experts at shooting people and maybe not so much on the invasion of an entire country.  Now if they were on the Corp staff back in 03 or SAMS grads with some NATO time, ok.  
    Based on their resumes this is akin to getting municipal planning advice from two fire fighters.  Sure they are on the payroll but way out of their lane.
    Live and let live but I would be cautious and weigh their opinions accordingly.
  7. Like
    BletchleyGeek got a reaction from benpark in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A well-written and cautious summary of developments (in Spanish)
    https://www.revistaejercitos.com/2022/03/01/guerra-de-ucrania-dia-6/
    of most interest for folks here are the three situation maps shown in the article: the first one which comes from a Russian source and looks very optimistic, another from the Institute for the Study of War which seems to underestimate the progress of the Russian Armed Forces along the coast of the Sea of Azov, and the third one, which neatly interpolates the 2nd with clear reports of Mariupol having been encircled (and fierce fighting around the city).
    Also very useful to make sense of the stream of videos and photos is this website 
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
    that works quite hard to geo locate videos/photos/claims and cross-reference all that data. A few days ago I was wondering about where was the "top-end" Russian kit, and it does seem that is starting to appear in the lists of confirmed destroyed vehicles.
    I am with @LongLeftFlank and other OSINT people that these supply raids and interdiction may snowball and become a very important factor in how things play out over the next few days. What we're seeing is very much in line with the analysis of the article from War on the Rocks that I (and probably others, this thread is a monster) shared a few days ago. From that analysis the most sensible strategy was to avoid a "decisive" engagement in the frontiers and go for the supply lines, and it seems that is precisely what the UKR forces are doing for the moment.
    The other very significative thing that many of you have raised is that there's seemingly a lot of open radio comms that are being snooped by radio aficionados from around the world. I look forward to see if someone can make sense out of all that Russian armed forces radio chatter. There are also several reports of equipment being just... abandoned.
    I am also very much horrified by seeing the effects of Russian artillery on civilian areas, again, after what transpired in Aleppo (or with less means, in Sarajevo, going back in time). I have no words for that.
    To all the Ukrainian friends here, please take care of yourselves if you have not already joined your army. To all the peace-loving, decent Russian friends here, I am not going to ask impossible stuff. I just remember this quote from One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich:
    A genius doesn't adjust his treatment of a theme to a tyrant's taste
  8. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek got a reaction from Shadrach in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A well-written and cautious summary of developments (in Spanish)
    https://www.revistaejercitos.com/2022/03/01/guerra-de-ucrania-dia-6/
    of most interest for folks here are the three situation maps shown in the article: the first one which comes from a Russian source and looks very optimistic, another from the Institute for the Study of War which seems to underestimate the progress of the Russian Armed Forces along the coast of the Sea of Azov, and the third one, which neatly interpolates the 2nd with clear reports of Mariupol having been encircled (and fierce fighting around the city).
    Also very useful to make sense of the stream of videos and photos is this website 
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
    that works quite hard to geo locate videos/photos/claims and cross-reference all that data. A few days ago I was wondering about where was the "top-end" Russian kit, and it does seem that is starting to appear in the lists of confirmed destroyed vehicles.
    I am with @LongLeftFlank and other OSINT people that these supply raids and interdiction may snowball and become a very important factor in how things play out over the next few days. What we're seeing is very much in line with the analysis of the article from War on the Rocks that I (and probably others, this thread is a monster) shared a few days ago. From that analysis the most sensible strategy was to avoid a "decisive" engagement in the frontiers and go for the supply lines, and it seems that is precisely what the UKR forces are doing for the moment.
    The other very significative thing that many of you have raised is that there's seemingly a lot of open radio comms that are being snooped by radio aficionados from around the world. I look forward to see if someone can make sense out of all that Russian armed forces radio chatter. There are also several reports of equipment being just... abandoned.
    I am also very much horrified by seeing the effects of Russian artillery on civilian areas, again, after what transpired in Aleppo (or with less means, in Sarajevo, going back in time). I have no words for that.
    To all the Ukrainian friends here, please take care of yourselves if you have not already joined your army. To all the peace-loving, decent Russian friends here, I am not going to ask impossible stuff. I just remember this quote from One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich:
    A genius doesn't adjust his treatment of a theme to a tyrant's taste
  9. Like
    BletchleyGeek got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A well-written and cautious summary of developments (in Spanish)
    https://www.revistaejercitos.com/2022/03/01/guerra-de-ucrania-dia-6/
    of most interest for folks here are the three situation maps shown in the article: the first one which comes from a Russian source and looks very optimistic, another from the Institute for the Study of War which seems to underestimate the progress of the Russian Armed Forces along the coast of the Sea of Azov, and the third one, which neatly interpolates the 2nd with clear reports of Mariupol having been encircled (and fierce fighting around the city).
    Also very useful to make sense of the stream of videos and photos is this website 
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
    that works quite hard to geo locate videos/photos/claims and cross-reference all that data. A few days ago I was wondering about where was the "top-end" Russian kit, and it does seem that is starting to appear in the lists of confirmed destroyed vehicles.
    I am with @LongLeftFlank and other OSINT people that these supply raids and interdiction may snowball and become a very important factor in how things play out over the next few days. What we're seeing is very much in line with the analysis of the article from War on the Rocks that I (and probably others, this thread is a monster) shared a few days ago. From that analysis the most sensible strategy was to avoid a "decisive" engagement in the frontiers and go for the supply lines, and it seems that is precisely what the UKR forces are doing for the moment.
    The other very significative thing that many of you have raised is that there's seemingly a lot of open radio comms that are being snooped by radio aficionados from around the world. I look forward to see if someone can make sense out of all that Russian armed forces radio chatter. There are also several reports of equipment being just... abandoned.
    I am also very much horrified by seeing the effects of Russian artillery on civilian areas, again, after what transpired in Aleppo (or with less means, in Sarajevo, going back in time). I have no words for that.
    To all the Ukrainian friends here, please take care of yourselves if you have not already joined your army. To all the peace-loving, decent Russian friends here, I am not going to ask impossible stuff. I just remember this quote from One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich:
    A genius doesn't adjust his treatment of a theme to a tyrant's taste
  10. Like
    BletchleyGeek got a reaction from Sarjen in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A well-written and cautious summary of developments (in Spanish)
    https://www.revistaejercitos.com/2022/03/01/guerra-de-ucrania-dia-6/
    of most interest for folks here are the three situation maps shown in the article: the first one which comes from a Russian source and looks very optimistic, another from the Institute for the Study of War which seems to underestimate the progress of the Russian Armed Forces along the coast of the Sea of Azov, and the third one, which neatly interpolates the 2nd with clear reports of Mariupol having been encircled (and fierce fighting around the city).
    Also very useful to make sense of the stream of videos and photos is this website 
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
    that works quite hard to geo locate videos/photos/claims and cross-reference all that data. A few days ago I was wondering about where was the "top-end" Russian kit, and it does seem that is starting to appear in the lists of confirmed destroyed vehicles.
    I am with @LongLeftFlank and other OSINT people that these supply raids and interdiction may snowball and become a very important factor in how things play out over the next few days. What we're seeing is very much in line with the analysis of the article from War on the Rocks that I (and probably others, this thread is a monster) shared a few days ago. From that analysis the most sensible strategy was to avoid a "decisive" engagement in the frontiers and go for the supply lines, and it seems that is precisely what the UKR forces are doing for the moment.
    The other very significative thing that many of you have raised is that there's seemingly a lot of open radio comms that are being snooped by radio aficionados from around the world. I look forward to see if someone can make sense out of all that Russian armed forces radio chatter. There are also several reports of equipment being just... abandoned.
    I am also very much horrified by seeing the effects of Russian artillery on civilian areas, again, after what transpired in Aleppo (or with less means, in Sarajevo, going back in time). I have no words for that.
    To all the Ukrainian friends here, please take care of yourselves if you have not already joined your army. To all the peace-loving, decent Russian friends here, I am not going to ask impossible stuff. I just remember this quote from One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich:
    A genius doesn't adjust his treatment of a theme to a tyrant's taste
  11. Like
    BletchleyGeek got a reaction from GAZ NZ in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A well-written and cautious summary of developments (in Spanish)
    https://www.revistaejercitos.com/2022/03/01/guerra-de-ucrania-dia-6/
    of most interest for folks here are the three situation maps shown in the article: the first one which comes from a Russian source and looks very optimistic, another from the Institute for the Study of War which seems to underestimate the progress of the Russian Armed Forces along the coast of the Sea of Azov, and the third one, which neatly interpolates the 2nd with clear reports of Mariupol having been encircled (and fierce fighting around the city).
    Also very useful to make sense of the stream of videos and photos is this website 
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
    that works quite hard to geo locate videos/photos/claims and cross-reference all that data. A few days ago I was wondering about where was the "top-end" Russian kit, and it does seem that is starting to appear in the lists of confirmed destroyed vehicles.
    I am with @LongLeftFlank and other OSINT people that these supply raids and interdiction may snowball and become a very important factor in how things play out over the next few days. What we're seeing is very much in line with the analysis of the article from War on the Rocks that I (and probably others, this thread is a monster) shared a few days ago. From that analysis the most sensible strategy was to avoid a "decisive" engagement in the frontiers and go for the supply lines, and it seems that is precisely what the UKR forces are doing for the moment.
    The other very significative thing that many of you have raised is that there's seemingly a lot of open radio comms that are being snooped by radio aficionados from around the world. I look forward to see if someone can make sense out of all that Russian armed forces radio chatter. There are also several reports of equipment being just... abandoned.
    I am also very much horrified by seeing the effects of Russian artillery on civilian areas, again, after what transpired in Aleppo (or with less means, in Sarajevo, going back in time). I have no words for that.
    To all the Ukrainian friends here, please take care of yourselves if you have not already joined your army. To all the peace-loving, decent Russian friends here, I am not going to ask impossible stuff. I just remember this quote from One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich:
    A genius doesn't adjust his treatment of a theme to a tyrant's taste
  12. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek got a reaction from George MC in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A well-written and cautious summary of developments (in Spanish)
    https://www.revistaejercitos.com/2022/03/01/guerra-de-ucrania-dia-6/
    of most interest for folks here are the three situation maps shown in the article: the first one which comes from a Russian source and looks very optimistic, another from the Institute for the Study of War which seems to underestimate the progress of the Russian Armed Forces along the coast of the Sea of Azov, and the third one, which neatly interpolates the 2nd with clear reports of Mariupol having been encircled (and fierce fighting around the city).
    Also very useful to make sense of the stream of videos and photos is this website 
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
    that works quite hard to geo locate videos/photos/claims and cross-reference all that data. A few days ago I was wondering about where was the "top-end" Russian kit, and it does seem that is starting to appear in the lists of confirmed destroyed vehicles.
    I am with @LongLeftFlank and other OSINT people that these supply raids and interdiction may snowball and become a very important factor in how things play out over the next few days. What we're seeing is very much in line with the analysis of the article from War on the Rocks that I (and probably others, this thread is a monster) shared a few days ago. From that analysis the most sensible strategy was to avoid a "decisive" engagement in the frontiers and go for the supply lines, and it seems that is precisely what the UKR forces are doing for the moment.
    The other very significative thing that many of you have raised is that there's seemingly a lot of open radio comms that are being snooped by radio aficionados from around the world. I look forward to see if someone can make sense out of all that Russian armed forces radio chatter. There are also several reports of equipment being just... abandoned.
    I am also very much horrified by seeing the effects of Russian artillery on civilian areas, again, after what transpired in Aleppo (or with less means, in Sarajevo, going back in time). I have no words for that.
    To all the Ukrainian friends here, please take care of yourselves if you have not already joined your army. To all the peace-loving, decent Russian friends here, I am not going to ask impossible stuff. I just remember this quote from One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich:
    A genius doesn't adjust his treatment of a theme to a tyrant's taste
  13. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to kraze in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Didn't quarter of Americans think that 9/11 was an inside job?
    Seems to be it's a stable percentage of that kind of people.
  14. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Cobetco in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    74% of people is a big deal the other 24% probably are not reading the news, and don't know what is happening.
  15. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Splinty in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's a strong possibility, along with not having the current encryption keys to even do so.
  16. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Falaise in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    2 pages invaded by a guy who never brought anything to this community there is a problem !!! he doesn't have even a own a game
  17. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to George MC in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    He’s a troll. No one refers to “northwest UK”. Block him. 
  18. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to kraze in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Who said they didn't try? In the first night they launched nearly a hundred missile strikes to take out airfields and air defenses (that's how I learned that an S-300 launch sounds like a salute pop and can be heard 30km away).
    Most of those MISSED. Because russian precision munitions aren't precise at all.
    Not to mention all our planes weren't there thanks to US intelligence and, quite possibly, are not operating from Ukrainian airfields.
  19. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek got a reaction from LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    By early Day 2 of this war it looked to me that the Russian armed forces were doing a "reconnaissance in force" in the North and Northeast, something that has been part of their operational thinking since the 1930s.
    But the - now it is very clear - failed airmobile operation did not seem consistent with a recon in force. You don't leave stranded high quality troops like that if you don't plan on relieving them, and doing so quickly. Quite surprisingly, given the very poor results obtained by Soviet airborne ops in World War 2, the Soviet Union retained a quite massive airborne force (like 4 times the size of the US one, where WW2 paratroopers were in positions of very high influence). So those guys are probably considered to be elite, and given a lot of institutional clout. This great essay with the title When Failure Thrives is quite a good read for historical context
    https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/WhenFailureThrives.pdf
    On the other hand, it is well documented that Russian airborne forces train very often for drops of not just light infantry, but also light artillery and armoured vehicles via helicopter. Of which we haven't seen any evidence of having been part of the aidrop (we have seen plenty of BMD-1 fighting around Irpin and Bucha, NW of Kyiv, but those came overland not via aerial ferry). So either the airborne op was probably a recon in force, something that seems to me run against the concept of vertical envelopment and conservation of force, or it was a part of plan that was relying on achieving strategic results via "shock and awe", and a bit of Special Forces bullsh*t (if Chechen mercs can be considered special forces).
    The original plan seemed to be relying on two twin double envelopments: of Kyiv in the West, and of the UKR forces on the Line of Control in the Donbas. The former, seemingly done with inadequate forces, to obtain a political decision, the second one to achieve a fait accompli, and seemingly the strongest along what should be the easiest axis (southern Ukraine is like Kansas... not very good terrain for defence, as both the Red Army and the Wehrmacht found the hard way in 1941 and 1943).
    I think that we can't help idealizing the planning and execution of military operations, and our preconceived notions muddle our ability to analyze what is going on.
  20. Like
    BletchleyGeek reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    yeah saw that one, but no not it.  This one went into detail on things like the service time of conscripts, continuing failure to develop a professional NCO force, training time for pilots etc.  Honestly it didn't really cover anything that hasn't been discussed here, but it was a good concise overview.
  21. Like
    BletchleyGeek reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I saw a quote earlier today from one analyst
    This wasn't case of a bad army not implementing a good plan or a good army trying to implement a bad plan.  it is just a freakin bad army.  The title was something like yes the Russian Army really is as bad as you think or something like that.  Been trying to find it again so far without much luck.
     
    And Ukraine (and the world) has another hero to cheer on. Olena Zelenska is now getting some coverage as well. 
  22. Like
    BletchleyGeek got a reaction from Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A link to the data of the 2019 election from Wikipedia

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election
    The only region where the "pro-Russian" part called "Opposition Party - For Life" got over 50% votes was the northern Donetsk region. Generally speaking, turnout is like 10-15% lower than in most EU countries.
  23. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Fernando in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The poem is from Ramón de Campoamor. It has become a saying in Spanish "En este mundo traidor, nada es verdad, ni es mentira. Todo es según el color del cristal con que se mira" (In this treacherous world, nothing is true, nor is it a lie. Everything is according to the color of the glass with which you look through)
  24. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to ASL Veteran in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I have seen the video that you are referencing.  It was posted in this thread, but this thread is moving so fast that it's hard to keep up.  The Russian soldier jumped out of the truck after the truck stopped and appeared to be wounded.  He still had his weapon with him (his assault rifle was clearly laying across his chest), and he was shot and killed while lying on his back as in 'taking cover'.  No doubt the driver and anyone riding shotgun were killed through the windshield.  He was not killed execution style as you seem to believe (for some reason) unless you think any soldier that is killed during wartime is a war crime.  He was shot and killed while taking cover behind the truck.  Afterwards someone walked towards where he was after the firing died down, but I don't recall anyone shooting him again at close range.  He was clearly already dead by the time any other individual entered the video.  They simply inspected the truck for loot - at least that's what I saw.
  25. Upvote
    BletchleyGeek reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    During the battle for Hostomel airfield this beauty was lost  

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