Tux

I have immense respect for your countryfolk and the way they managed to stand up to the Russian puppets. However, you're an, if not the exception. Look around the world and see the autocrats manipulating their populations, and realise that successful overthrow like that is very rare indeed. You paint a simplistic picture, with a broad brush and that doesn't lead anywhere good.

I am biased against anything serial dumb-ss Bret Stephens says, but this is rich.  Putin could've just done a feint in the non-natural gas regions and then made his big push on the principal strategic sector.  Instead Putin gets his army smashed and still doesn't have the resources that Stephens thinks the wily genius is after.  Stephens I guess is taking a break from explaining to us plebians how the science for climate change isn't settled.  I wish NYTimes would fire him, he's a disgrace.
Putin didn't need to totally and completely F-- up this war in order to clamp down on dissidents.  What ridiculous crap.
 

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Hey all, I might get in trouble for this but I'm gonna do it anyway.
While we are all very concerned about the deaths in UKR it's also important to remember the other slaughter that's been going on for two years.  Another covid wave, very contagious, is on the way.  I know this crowd skews a bit older so lots of folks here are more at risk.
If you aint vaxxed, get vaxxed.  If you aint boosted, get boosted.  Only 50% of americans are boosted, though 75% are vaxxed.  Immune system resistance wanes over time, particularly w Pfizer (moderna better in this respect).  At Omicron peak we were losing ~2500 americans a day (~4000 per day at the pre-vaccine covid peak last year).  That nearly all those omicron deaths were PREVENTABLE is a tragedy.  And that tragedy is driven by propaganda, much of it spawned from Russia and percolated thru facebook.  So if you want to give a big FU to Putin, get your shots! 
I don't want to lose any of you excellent Combat Mission aficionados.
Hong Kong has a huge percentage of old people who refuse to get vaxxed, it's gonna be a bloodbath.
Thanks, I will take my vacation now.

Guys,
So beyond the obvious competing narratives out there (nazis, bio-weapons, crisis actors etc) let's remember what this entire thing is, an egregious violation.  There has been no, and I mean zero, casus belli established for this invasion. 
People are pointing to the US invasion of Iraq in '03 in some weird "well two wrongs make it ok to kill thousands of civilians", however, the US did take their case to the UN, they were attacking a strongman dictator who had; invaded a neighbor for "reasons", used massive oppression on his own people, and had even employed chemical weapons against civilians.  So we are not even in the same strategic context here as Ukraine; a free democracy that had not even coming close to behaving like Saddam Hussein.
I have stayed out of a lot of these conspiracy theories floating around but even if the wildest ones are true (which I do not believe for a second) and let's say the Ukrainians were employing a combination of recovered nazi-occult and alien technology to make all Russian bears impotent...in the modern world your first response to that is not rolling in 120 BTGs!!  Worse, you cannot back that up with "well they were gently rolling in 120 BTGs"...no such reality exists.  That much metal + ammo + scared teenagers is never going to equal "gentle violation of sovereignty".
We can play the point-counter point game all day and try to gain political points but all of that is noise around the central and incontrovertible fact that Russia illegally invaded another sovereign European nation in a gross violation of sovereignty and global order...this is not "ok", this will never be "ok".
Finally, I know there are theories floating out there that the Russian Restraint can explain the slowness and stalling on the Russian side.  This is abject nonsense.  It is much, much harder to try and do a soft invasion.  The US military tried in Afghanistan and Iraq and they found it nearly impossible to avoid collateral damage and civilian deaths.  I have seen nothing to suggest that Russian ISR and Joint Targeting is so sophisticated and disciplined that they have any idea what they are hitting beyond..."hit there".  This baby hospital thing has been brought up, right sure....how exactly did Russian Joint Targeting know the hospital was empty (which it was not)?  How did Russian C2 know this when they don't even know where most of their own troops are?
So I am going to offer some simple rules that people can chose to adopt or not:
- Precision is hard, incredibly hard.  If your theory depends on greater Russian precision in anyway shape or form stop and think.
- Organization is hard.  If your theory depends on highly organized Russian capability...stop and think.
- Conspiracies are hard, in this day and age nearly impossible.  If your theory is relying on a "big secret"...stop and think.  All western governments leak like a sieve and even the autocratic ones bleed data like a stuck goat.  No government on earth, even NK, has an airtight seal on what information it leaks out.  So if you are relying on a "star chamber" or "black sites"...stop and think.
- If it looks like a Duck, stop calling it a Kitty Cat.  War is incredibly hard so the simplest explanation tends to be the right one.  It is the principle that has actually put this thread and forum out in front.  We have avoided over-analyzing (I know right?!) compared to others chasing some theories.  If Oryx has 297 open source pictures of destroyed/abandoned Russian tanks, well given the UA was outfitted with thousands of next gen ATGMs...it is not a hard squint to see the freakin quacking water fowl.  This is not some photoshop campaign for the ages, the Russians have lost a lot of tanks.  Is it 297, probably not could be more or Orxy might have some double accounting but it is a lot. 
- Assumptions, Factors and Deductions.  All this comes down to Assumptions, Factors (or Facts) and Deductions.  As I tell dead-eyed Majors, "make sure the line between these items is as straight and short as possible".  Make damn sure your Assumptions and Facts stay on speaking terms and then do not under any circumstances let the line between Factors and Deductions turn into a Pollock painting.  War is hard enough, complex enough and weird enough...it does not need your help in any of these areas. 
Go with the god of your choice grognards,  and try and stay out of trouble.
 

Seems like the Russian operational concept (the deep battle-style offensive) is totally spent. Havn't seen much in the way of broad-frontage attacks in weeks. Strong indications now that the Russian army is switching over to defensive warfare and is digging in everywhere. The key exception is Mariupol, which the Russians have encircled and besieged. In the last few days they have been like the snake slowly squeezing the city to death. Ukrainian defenders have held out stubbornly and as far as I can tell are fighting for just about every block. Russian troops are continuing to gain ground however, and things are looking bleak for the city. Some scuttlebutt suggests a potential Russian 'out' (one that the west nor Kyiv will surely accept) is the annexation of Kherson, Mariupol, and the Donbas back to Russia. 
Regarding the UA, things continue to go well for them. However the counterattacks that I have seen have so far remained tactical in nature. Vigorous action has kept the Russians from encircling Kyiv like they did with Mariupol, and potentially in the future we will see this transition into much broader pushes against Russian positions. Some here think that the UA will fight well against Russian defensive positions thanks to their knowledge of the terrain, western ATGMs, and of course the tremendous ISR advantage they have thanks to drones and the west. Potentially this would allow them to map out Russian positions in greater detail than either the Russian commander is aware of and then attack and destroy them. Like I said, I personally haven't seen any signs of anything quite like that happening. Yet. 
I would describe the last few days as both sides having reach a general operational equilibrium. Russia can no longer push forward and seize substantial amounts of ground, the UA for various reasons has not yet. Given how it looks like this war is going, I dont think were quite ready yet for a cease fire. I've read some talk that basically Russia is still non-serious re: terms. So the fighting will continue and we shall see which side is able to break this short term equilibrium. Re: Signs of collapse? I think many of the indicators remain that Russia is on the brink of a bad place. But IMO they have neither move closer nor further from the edge. They are, however, slowly grinding themselves into a find powder. Collapses are one of those things, before they happen its all so theoretical and subjective. Nobody can really say 'collapse today.' But once it happens then everyone will turn around and look at the road weve traveled and say 'see, I told you!' Right now were still, unfortunately, looking forward. 
To everyone whose been reading through, how'd I do? 

Yeah, the Saudis might, but the Saudis are world class BLEEEEEEEEPS. So maybe the Russians get the boot 17 to three instead of 19-1. I am not super clear on the rules of voting on your own expulsion. I am also very OK with a revised g20 that has some shred of standards for the member countries, which would boot the Saudis right out. In the medium term the civilized world just needs to get off oil. I realize that isn't cheap or painless, but it pretty much solves every foreign policy problem except China. Iran's bomb, and every nut and bolt of Putin's war machine, are paid for with oil/gas money. At some point we have to wise up.

Ukraine does seem to be the Tomb of the Unnamed Ground Vehicle

I think there's also a political component to what the MoD puts out. The goal right now is to rally countries to put as much diplomatic pressure on Russia as possible, and so they are not interested in saying "The Russian Army is pretty much beaten at this point".

So I gotta start by asking: are you honestly engaging in a discussion here and want to explore ideas?  Because you are coming across as a guy whose mind is made up and no amount of rational discussion is going to matter.  I am honestly going to try here, you get exactly one shot based on your tone so far:
1 - Absolutely true, plans definitely do not survive contact, as old as warfare.  However, what is important is how fast one can re-plan and pivot.  In this the Russians have not demonstrated an ability to come up with a "new plan" and re-org to it.  They have had a pregnant pause which has allowed their opponent to organize/mobilize, arm up, dig in, dominate the narrative, and access billions in military support.  And then there is the quality of that initial plan.  Failing to establish some key operational pre-conditions (e.g. why does the internet still work for Ukraine?) is also not a very good sign. So let's see the quality of the second (or third) plan and then we might now better what is going on.
2 - You said "The Russians have taken losses, but they remain free to operate combat aircraft and helicopters over most of the country." That is not true, in fact it is very not true below about 10k feet.  The fact that Russian forces did not set the basic pre-condition of gaining air superiority is a demonstration of their problem, not Ukraine's.  Plenty of evidence of Ukrainian UAV strikes online to demonstrate that we really are in more of an airpower stalemate and that is bad for an invading force.
3 - The Russian Navy is definitely still a factor.  They have sea control and are hitting with missiles but 1) like everything else the Russians are doing, there appears little integration between naval, air and land power at this point and 2) the Russian amphibious capability is in serious question. If for the sole question, "why have they not used it yet?  that said sea control will likely not be decisive, nor has it been decisive so far.
4- Evidence of defeat (https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html), so that is coming up on 24 BTGs of tanks, look at the logistics vehicle, coming up on 485...that is bad.  But even if you refuse to believe this, then one has to ask "what losing looks like".  Over to you as you asked the question.  However, it is a layered issue.  Political defeat, military defeat, economic defeat - if we are talking military defeat, well then an inability to influence or shape negotiations in the direction of national interest is near the top for me.  And as we watch the bubble slide on the Russian side of the table, it is not looking good, but I will give you that the jury is still out. 
5- Well backwards, as on a map, is kind of a one dimensional view to be honest. The primary way Russia has "gone backwards" is in the will of the Ukrainian people.  This is not about terrain, it is about their willingness to fight.  I think if Russian had one a quick and fairly clean fight that will might have stayed relatively dormant; however, that "plan did not survive" and now the entire nation is galvanized in an existential fight...that is definitely "backwards" from a Russian perspective.  Economically, narrative and just about any other non-military metric you want to apply Russia has gone backwards severely and let's not even start on the diplomatic front as it has been a complete disaster.  But if you only want to measure ground, then I guess we have to see.
So we have discussed a lot on forces and comparisons.  Right now, conservative estimate is that UA and Russian manpower is pretty near parity in theatre.  Russia does have equipment advantage but it has failed to be able to really leverage that.  Why?  Well that is a million dollar question.  What we have seen is that Russian mass is not working, if it was that map would look a lot different.  I suspect it is either because the Russian war machine simply is not setup for this complexity and has fallen under its own weight, and the Ukrainians help them along with that.
You are correct on one point, this is coming down to Will.  The Russians can keep pouring men into this fight, even if they are dismounted and have no ammo or food but if they have the Will that is an option.  What you seem to be sidestepping is the other issue, the Ukrainian Will to fight.  They see this as existential and are acting as such, so that is a problem right there for the Russians, unless they want a decades old resistance blowing up in their face but frankly I can't even seeing them getting that far as that would mean the Russians actually have to control the entire country and not about 15% of it.  Until then arms and support will flow in from the west and Russians will bleed...but we will see who blinks first.
 Lemme just close with a very important point - this is not an internet argument that anyone can "win".  I know the reflex is there to play forum games and try to "out argue each other" but that is not what is happening here.  For the most part no one really has a full picture of that is going on so we are sharing information and trying to build the best picture we can.  So the usual internet argument games do not apply here.  If you have a different assessment based on information you have, present it and we can all get a better picture.  This is a real war and people are dying in droves, so I frankly do not care who is "right or wrong" on a given Thurs because the situation is too dynamic.  But if you honestly want to contribute then do so, but this is not a contest...it is a really violent and scary puzzle.  Finally, there are people posting here who are actually in range of all those guns so let's also try and keep that in mind.

Sublime just put [ img ] and [ /img ] (without the spaces) either side of the image url to post a proper screenshot. Example, using your first link at the top of the page:

Really sorry to hear that, Bud. Hope things go well for you both.

Have you definitely cancelled the rest of the barrage, Bud? The reason I ask is that rocket barrages come in salvoes, as mentioned earlier in the thread. The other half of your rocket ammo might just be being loaded onto the rails, ready to land in 2-3mins' time...

Enjoying the read so far. Looking forward to when your units can properly sink their teeth into some meaty defensive positions!

Wiggum, it is often said that the definition of intelligence is knowing how much you do not know. With that in mind please re-read what you have just written and think again about how it makes you sound.
Most people on these forums want all the same improvements that you do. They are not disagreeing with those ideas, they are pointing out that it isn't as easy to do as you keep asserting that 'you think' it is. If you don't like that, you have two interesting options:

1. Start a religion which teaches that, yes, the world is as Guru St. Wiggum (peace be upon Him) Thinks it is, that He has Thought that BFC represents the sinful twin heads of the Daemun of Coding Incompetence and Overpriced Wargames and then base yourself in Britain so that you can sue everyone on these forums who disagrees.

2. Learn how to code a game engine which is quick and easy to update seven years later and how to make AI pixeltruppen act like human soldiers did in the 1940s, then come back, prove that you were right and everyone else was wrong and bathe in the respect you earn for doing so.

Every other option IS boring, because I think it is, so please keep it to yourself.

Wiggum, it is often said that the definition of intelligence is knowing how much you do not know. With that in mind please re-read what you have just written and think again about how it makes you sound.
Most people on these forums want all the same improvements that you do. They are not disagreeing with those ideas, they are pointing out that it isn't as easy to do as you keep asserting that 'you think' it is. If you don't like that, you have two interesting options:

1. Start a religion which teaches that, yes, the world is as Guru St. Wiggum (peace be upon Him) Thinks it is, that He has Thought that BFC represents the sinful twin heads of the Daemun of Coding Incompetence and Overpriced Wargames and then base yourself in Britain so that you can sue everyone on these forums who disagrees.

2. Learn how to code a game engine which is quick and easy to update seven years later and how to make AI pixeltruppen act like human soldiers did in the 1940s, then come back, prove that you were right and everyone else was wrong and bathe in the respect you earn for doing so.

Every other option IS boring, because I think it is, so please keep it to yourself.

The most cursory glance at the games disproves this. Every new game has new content in it (vehicles, uniforms, weaponry, equipment variations, TOEs, environments, landscape types/features). The engine is common to most and no-one in their right mind remodels a Kar 98k for every new WWII game but, apart from that...?
Back on topic, good catch. T90A hull remodelling strikes me as the sort of thing which might get caught in a patch so worth pointing out.

[edited for punctuation]

Yeah, one of those BTRs with the 30mm cannon got the drop on me .
 
The sound is from waclaw's HQS sound mod: http://cmmods.greenasjade.net/mods/5471/details

HMMWV gunners seem to survive ok the way I use them; providing covering fire and (generous) area fire from keyholed positions. I fairly frequently run them dry of ammo, in fact!

In my experience, when they do die, it's rarely the enemy at 12 o'clock, being engaged by the HMMWV's weapon, which kills the gunner. It's the guys off to either side who are taking their time laying accurate, unsuppressed fire on him as a priory target. Good positioning/keyholing removes that threat and means that if anyone wants to shoot your gunner they need to brave a hail of Mk19 or machine gun rounds to do so.

Tux, press CTRL 'z' to toggle command lines on/off.

Screenshot of one of my 'blind' teams:



They see all of the advancing tanks if they so much as lift their heads but never actually fire their AT weapon because going prone breaks contact.

If you give them the order to Hunt to the Action Spot they already occupy then I think they will at least get up and shuffle about a bit, hopefully improving their spotting ability in the process (but also making themselves more likely to be spotted, unfortunately).

Am I the only one who thinks the OP comes off a major douche bag?
 
Employing the use of passive intimidation in order to avoid paying a nominal fee for a movie ticket. Really? I shudder to think what other things this guy does in the name of entitlement.
 
As for the review, it reads off like it could have been narrated by James Sawyer from Lost; shallow and non-erudite. One exception being Josh Holloway's character having a vastly more expanded vocabulary.

The Javelin is a truly amazing weapon system, as demonstrated by British troops in this video (or perhaps not)...
 

have you met an Indian before? They are like miniature Einsteins.

Actually the whine sound you hear in many movies when aircrfaft are crashing does not appear in reality. What you are hearing in those movies are the Jericho-Trumpets, large sirens that were mounted on the WW2 german Stukas in order to instill fear among the enemy troops on the ground. Those Jericho-Trumpets were burnt into the collective memory of hundereds of thousands of people during the war, so that today still many believe that crashing aircraft cause a noise like siren.
 
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jericho-Trompete
 

 
 
EDIT:
 
Regarding the audio message when aircraft get hit by SAM fire, i would prefer to hear a readio message, something like this at 1:45:
 

 
"Dodge 2 is hit, Dodge 2 is hit! Bail out! Bail out! Bail out! ~inaudible~  BAIL OUT! BAIL OUT! - Okay i marked the position on the INS, coordinates blablabla"
 
or
 
"Dodge 1 on guard. Mayday! Mayday! Mayday! Dodge 2 has just been shot down."
 
Take this and add some cockpit beeping from a radar warning indicator, or maybe some 'nagging nora' computer voice commands:
 
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/home/video-8946/How-voice-Nagging-Nora-sound-battle-conditions.html