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c3k

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  1. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Commanderski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  2. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Chibot Mk IX in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Looks like regular, the testing scenario also incorrectly put the scenario at day time, clear weather condition. 
    I did a testing myself. Even with correct parameter, night time, heavy rain , sea state 5, a novice Moskva can easily defeat a salvo of 16 subsonic Harpoonski.
    An EMCON D Moskva can detect the ASM at 16nm away and begin the engagement at 12nm away.
    An EMCON A Moskva first detect ASM at 10nm away , the ASM turn on the weapon seeker radar there, broadcast their presence to Moskva . With a 18 seconds OODA cool down SAM left the tube at 7nm away. Most of ASM will be intercepted.
     
    But, there is one trick to make a two Harpoonski strike successfully penetrate a radar silence Moskva's defense. Don't use automatic fire. Use BoL fire.  First do a calculation to predict where the Moskva will be when the ASM reach that area. Mark a point on the map then make the ASM aim at that point , in BOL mode ASM will turn on their radar there. It is supposed to be somewhere very close to Moskva.    They will hit the Moskva before her OODA cool down.

  3. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Neutrons are not stopped well by steel. To stop neutrons you need hydrogenous material - water, plastic. Gamma rays are stopped well by steel. The ceramics used fall somewhere in the middle. Concrete is used as shielding for example, and atomic mass wise is in the ballpark of ceramics. Steel can be pretty much transparent to neutrons, a fact we have to take into account in shield designs where a structure may be made up of a web of steel beams. A transverse stiffener in a wall can be a superhighway for neutrons in a direct line of it.
    Dave
  4. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @BeondTheGrave @OldSarge @G.I. Joe
    And other, who asked about Neptune ASM
    The missile R-360 of Neptune complex is not a version of Kh-35U, though has similar parameters. Yes, it has very similar hull, and initially since R&D works have started as far as in 2013 or earlier, the missile should be as  localized and upgraded analog of Kh-35. This gave to Russian propagandists a reason to claim "Stupid Ukrainians proud because could copy old Soviet missile ahahaha!", so far like their claims "BTR-4 is reworked BTR-70". Russians in own chauvinism believed that without Russia all industry in Ukraine completely declined and we can't develop nothing own, but upgrade USSR lagacy. But Soviet/Russian Kh-35 was really "long played" project, started as far as in 1977, first prelimilary design was ready only in 1983, brought to tests only in 1992 and adopted to service in 2003! And Kh-35U with some improvements, like coordinates transmittion via satellite, was adopted in 2015
    Currently Russian navy use this missile in next versions: Kh-35 (AS-20) for planes and helicopters, Bal (SSC-6) - coastal missile complex, Uran (SS-N-25) - ship-bases missile complex
    Turning back to Ukrainian R-360 - since 2013 the missile have changed at least homing heads (or even three) and many more. First test launches were in 2018, but despite on success, there were found many problems in homing, flight stability also sea-skimming mode had enough hight altitude of flight. In 2019 new tests with new homing head and some constructive changes were conducted, but anyway missile demanded many finalization works. Also there was main problem - previous launches were conducted with USA aid - they detected target and transmitted coordinates to launcher vehicle via own sattelite. Ukraine has been developed own targeting radar Mineral-U, but encountered with many R&D problems, so manufacturer tests were passed only in October 2021 and two radars has been preparing to state test program, but unknown either it was started before a war or not. So, in present time Mioneral-U is nor adopted, but probably can be used in test mode. So, the strike at "Admiral Essen" and  "Moskva" could be done both via US satellite and Mineral-U tergeting. 
    Also results of test showed that the carrier of missile complex and radar, based on 8x8 KRAZ-7634NE has low reliability and because of bad financial situation on KRAZ plant, technological problems and inability to provide timely technical support and implement constructive changes, there was assumed a decision to change the carrier to Tatra T815 (Chech Republic). Both Mineral-U radars were produced on Tatra chassis, but crossing of RK-360MC on Tatra took some time, so first battalion of Neptune have to be operational in April 2022 only. To this time the unit, armed with this complex - 65th coastal missile battalion had on armament only one launcher on KRAZ chassis and support vehciles. There is unknown either was a missiles or not, because in 2021, when this battalion was established, there was an information he had only dummy of missiles and first real nissiles have to arrive also in 2022. So, this is one possible answer, why Neptunes have awake only now. First reason - they got a missiles only now, second reason - they could have very short number of missiles and kept its for case of enemy landing attempt n Odesa area. But since new missiles issued and UK/Norway offered own ASMs, they could fire free.   
    So, about R-360 pararameters: 7 ... 280 km range, 150 kg warhead, velocity - 900 km/h, radar/satellite coordinates and targeting aquisitoin, seeker field of viev +/- 60 deg (even more than Harpoon), sea-skimming mode, seeking during maneuvering, EW protection, maximum range of launcher from the sea shore - 25 km
    Composition of battalion:
    Three batteries per 2 launchers: 6 launchers USPU-360 (each has 4 tubes of R-360), deployment time 15 minutes
    Technical battery:
    6 transport-loader vehicles TZM-360 (4 R-360 missiles on each), deployment time 10 minutes, reloading time 20 minutes
    6 transport vehicles TM-360 (4 R-360 missiles on each)
    1 mobile command post RKP-360, deployment time 10 minutes.
    1 targeting radar (optional) Mineral-U
    So one battalion should have 72 missiles. Full salvo in 24 missiles simultainously is possible.
    First version of launcher USPU-360 on KRAZ-7634NE 

    Serial version of launcher USPU-360 on Tatra T815

    Transport-loader vehicle TZM-360 first version (KRAZ)
     
    Serial versin of transport-loader vehcile TZM-360 (Tatra)

    Transport vehicle TM-360 (KRAZ)

    Transport vehcile TM-360 (Tatra), serial variant

    Mobile command post RKP-360, first variant

    Mobile command post RKP-360 (Tatra), serial variant

    Mineral-U radar

  5. Upvote
    c3k reacted to sross112 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This failing seems to be par for the course across the board. Is it possible that Russia decided 30 years ago that they needed to keep their Navy afloat and come out with a few new air and ground toys to act like they were a world power? Looking at it from the aspect of they want to be big and tough but know that they aren't ever going to fight a peer to peer conflict because NATO is not going to attack them? Figuring that they had enough quantity of brute force leftovers to handle their wayward colonies like Chechnya? 
    It makes sense when you look at their force compositions and equipment. They come out with a fancy new tank and equip a battalion or two of their "elite" formations and everyone else is in old gear. Same with most of their other platforms. The western army's don't have active units running around in M60's, Chieftains and Leopard 1's. We've seen base grade T-72's on up, a virtual smorgasbord of variants throughout the different units. Same with their IFV's. They make enough fancy stuff to point to and say watch out for us but they don't field 4800 up to date MBT's equally spread across their formations. Why? 
    If they were truly trying to defend against NATO or planned on attacking any peer country they would have had to have kept their whole first line up to date. They have to know that, again there aren't a lot of secrets as to what is in the ground forces of their adversaries and the capabilities of most of our weapons systems. If the people on this board know the difference between the air defense systems on the Moskva and an Aegis they certainly have to. If they haven't updated those systems in 40 years then they were never seriously planning to defend themselves from us or attack us.  
    I know their corruption is systemic and has caused a lot of their problems as well but they couldn't realistically believe that what they have for an army could have challenged NATO or even the US on it's own. That isn't even counting in the air or on the sea. There have been plenty of examples of western warfighting capability over the last 30 years so they can't be in the dark as to just how far below the bar they would be in an armed conflict with the bigger contestants. They just can't be that stupid or uninformed. Call them what you want but I don't believe stupid is accurate. Staggeringly poor gamblers at the moment, yes.
    So with the mindset of looking tough mostly for bluff because they knew their economy couldn't support a rival war machine to NATO (they tried that and lost) but having enough to systematically subdue the former regions as needed looks like a possible compromise that could have placed them in this situation. It also falls in line with what others have said about this being Putin's Pearl Harbor moment. Watching Ukraine they knew that they had a quickly closing window of opportunity to act and if they didn't jump now it would be impossible in a couple more years.
    Of course as we have seen their assessments and gambles on western support and the fighting spirit of the UA were a little off the mark. I think a lot of that was based on the assumption that the UA hadn't yet developed much from the conflict in 2014 and the same mistake that most of the MSM "experts" and simply looked at the basic math without accounting for all the other factors involved. The assumption of more tanks and airplanes wins.  
    You might say, "But, but, what about the Kremlin's rhetoric of how they are defending against an aggressive NATO and will defeat them!" or "Why would they develop the costly technologically advanced weapons systems if they were only going to beat on Georgia?". Well, to keep up the pretense to their people and have pretty toys on May 9th. Seriously, especially in an autocratic regime you have to have an enemy. You need to be the strong guy protecting the poor people of your nation from those foreign devils. The fancy toys inspire confidence in your leadership and make them feel safe, therefore you make them feel safe. Then smash a small state from time to time and make sure you let them know that you barely saved them from ruin at the hands of the Moldovan masses backed by the dastardly British Intelligence.
    And all that would make sense as to how we got to where we are today. 
    Thoughts?
  6. Upvote
    c3k reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Actually at the end of the day we are a wargaming community with deep interest (and some expertise) in the history of warfare.  This is the first peer-on-peer conventional war of the 21st century and likely the most intense since the Iran-Iraq war back in the 80s, so you can understand why it is kind of a big deal.
    As to the games, no small amount of effort you see here is to try and figure out how to make CM more realistic, particularly the modern titles.  So let’s call this game design in contact.   
    Finally we are about analysis and assessment that cut through a lot of the noise out there, so we have seen a lot of people migrate here because we try and remain unbiased- as far as we can as we stand with Ukraine on this one- and offer a different picture than a lot of mainstream military analysis.  Moreover, we will toot our own horn as we have been noted as out in front of events thanks in large part to information sharing and a robust online debate.
    We are also on the internet and get whackies, which have been warned and in some cases banned.  
    That all said, do not worry BFC is still in the gaming business but right now they have their eyes on this history in the making.  They (and “we”: check out CMCW while you are in the gift shop!), will be back to making the game series you love shortly but right now the best good we can do is try and keep a clear eye on things and keep each other informed while supporting those of us in the middle of all this.
  7. Upvote
    c3k got a reaction from Canada Guy in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'll second the book recommendation. Great read.  No way was it other than a planned hammer-blow with great hopes on its success.
  8. Upvote
    c3k reacted to TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    True.  And if I can channel the absent JasonC for a moment,  most of Zhukov's successes came when he was working with Vasiliev. Without Vasiliev, Zhukov gave us such gems as operation Mars which was such a disaster that it was expunged from the Soviet histories. 
  9. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The deficit of yellow tape ) 
  10. Upvote
    c3k reacted to akd in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Gotta catch ‘em all:
     
    Even him:
     
  11. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    First visually confirmed destroyed 9P162 Kornet-T tank destroyer. This is BMP-3- based vehcile, which has been coming to service since 2013-2014 year.
    Kornet-T has 12 9M133 (AT-14) missiles in autoloader and additional 4 in stock for manual reload. Launcher has two tubes, two missiles can be lauched and guided in one target simultainously. Also the portable launcher 9P163 can be assembled for the usage outside of vehicle.
    Vehicle is equipped with 1PN80 Kornet-TP thermal sight with detection range in 4000 m and recognition range in 3500 m

     
  12. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Romanivka was not captured by Russian troops. Throughout the battle for Kyiv, a humanitarian corridor was organized there, which allowed the evacuation of civilians from Irpin Bucha and Gostomel. I myself evacuated along this route on 03/05/22, when the Russians entered Irpin and street fighting began. This route was under heavy artillery fire for about 3 weeks.
  13. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    How would a policy of neutrality towards Ukraine have enabled it to defend against Russia?
    2014+ Ukrainian Army was slaughtered by Putin.
    Western support built what is working today. Without western Intel, all these ambushes would not be happening. Without western financing, no Ukrainian drones would fly, no NVGs, no nothing. Without western leadership the Ukrainian army would still fight with Soviet doctrine and lose.
    What we are seeing right now is a result NOT of Minsk and Putin appeasement but of US/UK policy to bolster Ukraine in case of evident Russian aggression, despite concern of "worsening relation with Russia".
    He does not care about economics. He does not care about his or our People. He cares about the past and everyone west of him is an enemy complicit in that "greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century" to quote Putin himself.
    Neutrality towards Ukraine would have in fact put Putin exactly where he wanted to be.
  14. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Some people already have their world engulfed in war and are fighting so others don't have to
  15. Upvote
    c3k reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yep, they are testing how far they can go and they surely won´t stop.
    From the russian perspective it so far looks like this:
    - Attacking a neighbouring country - No significant military response by NATO
    - Shelling civilians and bombing them to heaven - No significant military response by NATO
    - Raping women and children - No significant military response by NATO
    - Torturing and killing civilians - No significant military response by NATO
    - List-operated killing squads against civilians - No significant military response by NATO
    - Bombing and killing fleeing civilians at train station - No significant military response by NATO
    - Using a chemical agent in Mariupol - ...
    and so on and so forth...
  16. Upvote
    c3k reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Wonderful. Every russian ammo depot should look like this...
     
     
  17. Upvote
    c3k reacted to womble in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Re: the journos and the cat.
    The cat was probably there for 10 minutes, certainly the correspondents couldn't expect it to hang around. So as an interlude from the horror, it was probably welcome. The horror was going to still be there once the cat left. Many people like cats. Some people like cats a lot. Cats make stories people read. Good stories keep people engaged with the affairs that are being reported as "cat-related". Is this a bad thing? I don't think it is. All hail our feline overlords.
  18. Upvote
    c3k reacted to womble in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And there's a strong suspicion that the defenses of Kherson were compromised by treachery, so even that example of apparent competence may flatter.
  19. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Pelican Pal in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    RE: Ukrainians being pocketed South of of Izium.

    The Russians haven't shown the capability to fight their way out of a paper bag excepting the first 2-3 days near Kherson. While the Ukrainians have shown good capability to fight defensively and at the same time I've not seen any evidence that the Ukrainians are capable/wanting to launch counter-offensives that have to wrest ground from the Russians.

    Keeping troops in the area seems to make good sense. It plays the UA strengths and RUAF weaknesses. I'd also just question the capability for the Russians to seal the pocket and liquidate it? How many men would you need to seal the pocket, then to defend against UA attacks from the outside of the pocket, and also liquidate it?
    Troop comfort seems tied pretty tightly to economic power so I'm not entirely sure how important it is on its own. During WW2 the USN had entire ships dedicated to ice cream production. Did the U.S. win the war in the Pacific because it cared more about its troops or because it had so much excess economic power that it could just dedicated an entire ship/crew to ice cream production?
     
  20. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Australia, 57 years?
    That's a long sentencing. What did you do!? Just how many damn sheep did you steal?!
    Teasing as I'm Irish
  21. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Combatintman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Indeed ... illustrated perfectly here ...

    Ok - I get its a cat and not a human but @TheVulture is bang on.  I recall remarking very early on in this thread during the first 24 hours of this conflict that all I was seeing on MSM was journos on the rooftops of hotels in Ukraine miles away from the shooty-bangy end of the conflict bumping their gums about nothing that added any value regarding the shooty-bangy part of the conflict.  My analogy is it would be like coverage of a football match where 90% of the footage and commentary is about who is in the crowd, the dressing room, in the carpark outside the stadium etc and the final 10% is Liverpool won 2-0 and here is footage of the goals.
    They need to give their heads a wobble.
  22. Upvote
    c3k got a reaction from AlexUK in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    ^^^ (and fixed that for you with the bold)
    This.  It's nauseating at (most?) times.
    Someone, in this thread, posted a picture of a horde of "journalists" clustered around a cat and rabidly filming it, while they were in the midst of some destruction in a Ukrainian city. To them, the cat was more important than anything else in that situation.
  23. Upvote
    c3k reacted to akd in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You are confusing issues.  Conscripts who were sent into combat in Ukraine were already serving past the minimum training period, possibly approaching the end of their conscription period.  There is no law against their use, but Putin “promised” on TV that conscripts would not participate in the “Special Operation.”  It’s not a violation of law, but a political liability.  The people who are being conscripted now and sent directly into combat are not Russian Citizens, but Ukrainians in previously occupied areas.  Reports surfacing today that they are even now conscripting men in recently occupied areas, including people fleeing Mariupol and people in Kherson (that should end well!).  No evidence at all that any young Russian citizens from the current draft have been sent directly to Ukraine, and this would likely trigger a large number of court cases if it was happening.
  24. Upvote
    c3k reacted to The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And I'll repeat, if Putin chooses to ignore conscription rules or the law , it comes with consequences. Even he knows this!  
  25. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Princeps legibus solutus est seems to be an idea that is alive and well in Putin's Russia.
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