Pete Wenman

Having seen the actual clip that the picture originates from, knowing that it is an image of a human being in a moment of absolute terror and anguish, I personally am revolted by its use in a meme. I know full well that my emotions are shaped by what might be described as the arrogance of a western comfort, but could we please refrain from going that much orc and refrain from posting gore here?
 
Looking into the abyss and all that… 

Stolen from the ACIG forum

Stolen from the ACIG forum

Stolen from the ACIG forum

Stolen from the ACIG forum

Stolen from the ACIG forum

Stolen from the ACIG forum

Stolen from the ACIG forum

Stolen from the ACIG forum

Stolen from the ACIG forum

Stolen from the ACIG forum

Stolen from the ACIG forum

Fresh map

[UPDATE]
Another assessment
[UPDATE] RU source reports the situation is extremely fluid today. The frontline will jump back and forward. He is going offline so most probably the next update we will see tomorrow.

UKR vehicles are crossing the river
 

Ok...STOP.
  I am not a moderator on this forum but I have @BFCElvis on speed dial.  This thread is about the war Ukraine and, yes we have discussed surrounding issues and possible 2nd and 3rd order effects this war could have on the region.  This thread is not about:
- Bafflingly narrow or simply out of date concepts such as solving human cultural overlaps with policy.
- Vilifying the entirely of all Russian peoples as somehow less than human.  No human society, culture or whatever has or ever will be entirely homogeneous, good or bad.  So sweeping ideas of how to solve a "Russian Problem" by a bunch of old guys with too much time on their hands, which they should spend learning more, are not 1) viable or 2) useful here.
- I get we are sore on Russia right now, they earned that one; however, at what point on this incredibly myopic line of thinking do we become worse than that we assign to them?  All in the name of "safety" - a whole lot of atrocity and historic marks of shame lay on the feet of "safety".  I have been to one genocide and trust me none of you know what you are talking about, so stop hijacking the thread.
- FFS, we did not even take the approaches some are proposing here during the Cold War, we went with "contain and attract/entice", and we won that one.  In fact we look back on the occasion of the McCarthy era - which is where this is going- as a dark chapter 
You wanna talk about mass deportations, forced migration, race/ethnic cleansing/purity or any other whack-job nonsense there is literally an entire internet out there, let's try and keep this one small "sane space".    

Ah, yes, here we go again. Each and every Russian. Well, I know Russians who are not like you describe them, so your theory is already falsified.

I'd say that's called being civilized, not soft... Anyway, yes, the Baltics could throw out the Russians but what would they gain from that except some measure of satisfaction. I mean, half the conflicts in the world are about someone having thrown out someone else. For good measure let's start by "relocating" all the Russians to some camps. For their own safety, of course. While we are are it, let's just confiscate their property to pay for our expenses in this war.
We (the West) can rationalize each and every of these measure. Maybe I'm just naive, I mean we could just go full realpolitik and do whatever we feel necessary, morals be damned, but that would hurt our already damaged credibility and that is a kind of capital that should not be underestimated.
 

Guys, it is morning here, have to do other life stuff. So, most likely will be quiet for next few hours. But I got strange RU report that UKR have been hitting RU positions whole night at Kharkiv and now moving units to attack. It could RU BS (but why?) or UKR info ops RU believed. Let's see.
 

No worries - new Grigb map to the rescue!

Discussion of what we know so far: 
We have two local pushes - at Inhulets bridgehead and in the area of Visokopilly + massed HIMARS strike at Chernobaivka (looks like this time the target is not airport but RU positions at settlement itself) It seems UKR were waiting for RU to commit 3 AK. Once they detected it was committed at Donetsk (see my earlier map) they started their push in Kherson. 

Well, Blackadder was getting better with each season, with 4th being a masterpiece of both comedy and sober anti-war commentary, culminating with what I consider a finest scene in history of TV:
End of offtopic, promise!

Ok so I am a bit pissed off with this and would ask you two to reconsider, I can kinda forgive MikeyD as I sort of get where he is coming from but Dan you have added nothing and just attacked a UK Public Servant who has given a good part of his life to protecting the UK and Europe and working with America. So shame on both of you....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Dannatt
Before you start slagging off people that don't agree with your views please take a look at the whole and if you do have any evidence that he is a racist I would love to see it.
So YES he is old school and you have to view the context of these senior leaders they don't always do detail and were very used to a life at the top being fed information to make the key choices on what to do.
He could well be wrong about the outcome of the war as he does not have the detail he once had access to. He is of course has life experience to draw upon which we don't have the same as him. Unless you served at the top of your armed forces?
What we want is a quick end to this war and from following here I am hopeful that will happen but it has not happened yet and for me the next phase is key to see if Ukraine can pull off a major victory and force Russia out of say Kherson.
This would be a good indication that they can turn the tables on Russia and win the war quickly.
Of course Kherson could all be a diversion and they have another target, that would be good too but so far we have not seen it and I wait in hope and keep looking at the Tea Leafs for signs...
 

Final Mashkovets map for Kherson.

While this map is not completely up to date, I believe is clear that RU is still trying to be active there.
I believe this is what i called Victory offensive (and what Girkin called Third effective stage). Retrospectively, most probably initial intention of RU command was for Donbass offensive to fix UKR in Donbass then crash UKR forces in Kherson and Kharkiv. But as per our discussions, the situation on the ground is much different from what RU top brass believes. They simply do not have forces for anything serious offensive. But order is order - Ura, Comrades! And that's what we see. Some pushes here and there + thick layer of victorious BS.
Anyway, when we discuss Kherson UKR moves, we do need to keep in mind RU is still trying to advance there. 

This seems significant if accurate
 

 
 
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This seems significant if accurate
 

 
 
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