How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Hapless]

On a lighter note...

Edited April 30, 2022 by Hapless

[sburke]

More on the atrocities committed by Russian troops, but also found one other item,

Brutal Sect of Putin’s Army Accused of Murdering Their Own Comrades (msn.com)

According to Hurin, Ukrainian civilians were not the only people the Kadyrovtsy allegedly brutalized in the town. Hurin said that residents he spoke to in Borodyanka, which lies northwest of Bucha, recounted what the Kadyrovtsy did with injured Russian soldiers they brought there from Bucha. “They would bring heavily wounded Russian soldiers to a big hospital they had there, and those who were very heavily wounded, they would just shoot them,” he told The Daily Beast. “And no one other than the Kadyrovtsy did this.”

[DesertFox]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hah!  Well, then a very lucky hit with that first rocket.  Very lucky.  If this had been a CM2 game the defender would have complained about a bug making Grads unrealistically accurate

Steve

Think that is interesting. That vid you were referring to allegedly shows the place of the demise of that E-warfare general.

 

 

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, akd said:

https://informnapalm.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/EW.ru_.pdf?amp=1

This has a title listed for him: заместитель начальника войск радиоэлектронной борьбы Вооружённых Сил Российской Федерации

Deputy Chief of the Electronic Warfare Troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation

Is there a Chief?  Or should this be read as Deputy (to the General Staff?), Chief of the Electronic Warfare Troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation?

Deputy chief of Electronic Warfare Troops of Armed Forces of Russian Federation

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, Hapless said:

On a lighter note...

Lol! Waste not, want not.

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No, Simonov was allegedly killed during the strike at rear comamnd point in Zabavme village near Izium. The same video with first rocket of MLRS lucky shot

Oh, that is so much better!  Then we might have a couple more generals' names coming soon.

This gets me back to my thinking that the first shot on the building was a precision munition and not a really lucky grad hit.  The rest of the grads came nowhere near to hitting that building.

I'm thinking that Ukraine has precision munitions of some sort and they are trying to keep the Russians from knowing about it.  They had intel that a general was in the building and so used one of the precision munitions to make SURE they got him.  The Grads were fired to cover up the use of whatever they used.

Sorry folks, I don't buy it that the first explosion was lucky.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Denmark is going to give Ukraine 25 Piranha III APCs, 50 M113 APCs and heavy 120 mm M/10 mortars (M120 in US) with ammunition

https://olfi.dk

 

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Denmark is going to give Ukraine 25 Piranha III APCs, 50 M113 APCs and heavy M10 mortars with ammunition

https://olfi.dk

 

 

If this is 100% verified then that means the Swiss gave approval, which is necessary as part of the contract with Danish forces.  Which is odd because they did not give approval for Germany to send ammunition with the Gepards.

Steve

[akd]

21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Deputy chief of Electronic Warfare Troops of Armed Forces of Russian Federation

Thank you.  Yes, I see Lt.-Gen. Yuri Lastochkin is the Chief.

[Battlefront.com]

Article talking about a specific sanctioned Russian member of the Duma who owns property in Austria.  The more interesting part is the apparent pressure building to have Austria start to disclose what it is doing about enforcing sanctions.  Here's the article with Google translation into English:

https://www-profil-at.translate.goog/wirtschaft/russland-sanktionen-oesterreich-friert-luxus-wohnungen-in-wien-und-kaernten-ein/401990714?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Steve

[Haiduk]

Building in Rubizhne after UR-77 mineclearing HE charge explosion

[Battlefront.com]

Recounting of an unknown (recon?) mission into Kherson by the Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer:

Quote

Our assignment took us deep into enemy territory. Unlike the times before, however, the job was, in some ways, much more dangerous. We changed into plausible civilians clothing, each armed with a concealed firearm, and under the cover of darkness made our way into the occupied city of #Kherson on bicycles, in pairs, taking the Western approach. After hiding the bicycles in the brush, we snuck into the city proper.

The streets were quiet, dead quiet. We saw not a living soul except for occasional #Russian patrols, in vehicles and sometimes on foot, driving around, shining flashlights into windows and dark corners. Anyone on the streets at night is immediately arrested and often beaten.

Making our way through the city during curfue hours was a tense experience. Our contact has warned us to remain in the shadows and not to expose ourselves to spying eyes. While a minority, the collaborators in #Kherson are everywhere, and they wouldn't hesitate to tip the #Russians off if they saw us on the street after dark. A window opening above us or a flicker of someone's cigarette on a balcony, a barking dog in the distance, all were enough for us to cling to the walls in the darkness and hold our breath.

We eventually made contact with a member of the local Resistance that were invaluable in acting as spotters for our artillery for the last month. They provided us with #Russian uniforms but no id papers. We could pass for Russian soldiers from a distance, but any up close examination would've revealed our true nature.

The resistance reported that the situation in the city is grim. People have been disappearing from their homes or taken right off the streets, never to be seen again. Anyone associated with territorial defense, SBU, local government administration, journalists and political activists is a target. Rumours are floating around that the #Russians are sending them off to concentration camps in #Russia, or simply executing them somewhere outside the city of #Kherson and burying them in mass graves. Children have also been forcefully relocated to Russia. Just a few days ago, a Resistance member told us, an expression of sadness and pain on his face, 60 orphans were rounded up and taken East.

Thousands of tonnes of grain have been taken from #Kherson region to #Russia. Another #Holodomor in the planning.

Come morning, the curfue is over. We wait for the streets to start filling up with people hurrying along their daily tasks, and we venture outside. The tension can be felt immediately. Citizens keep their eyes to the ground, avoiding looking at each other or at the #Russian soldiers. Suspicion, distrust, fear and hatred are palpable. The Russians feel it too, and that makes them scared, frustrated, angry and on edge, their faces grey and tired. They randomly stop people on the street, frequently violently, particularly men. They search their belongings and phones for suspicious items and content.

Their efforts to turn #Kherson "Russian" continue. Many positions in civil administration are now occupied by #Russian collaborators. They shamelessly push Russian state propaganda and actively assist the invader in identifying and arresting #Ukrainian citizens that present a threat to the Russification of the region.

We remained in the city until evening, and then made our way back to the bicycles. A couple of hours later and a close call with a #Russian BTR, we finally made it to our lines, where kind souls have prepared strong coffee and plenty of cigarettes.

Thus ends our infiltration of #Kherson, a city straining under #Russian occupation and provocations (Kyivstar Internet was cut as we were leaving, most likely to blame it on the #Ukrainians)

I cannot discuss the specific objectives of this operation, but I can say that they were all achieved.

Glad to be back.

I appreciate all the Internet warriors putting in their two cents about opsec and legalities of war. All I'm going to say to that is WAKE THE FUCK UP. You want to win playing by the rules, come here and do it the "right way". I win any way I can.

 

[akd]

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Article talking about a specific sanctioned Russian member of the Duma who owns property in Austria.  The more interesting part is the apparent pressure building to have Austria start to disclose what it is doing about enforcing sanctions.  Here's the article with Google translation into English:

https://www-profil-at.translate.goog/wirtschaft/russland-sanktionen-oesterreich-friert-luxus-wohnungen-in-wien-und-kaernten-ein/401990714?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Steve

More things surfacing in Germany, also:

 

[Battlefront.com]

I'm not a naval guy so I don't have an opinion about this:

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, akd said:

More things surfacing in Germany, also:

 

The lack of transparency about Russian money has been a source of frustration for many, but an obvious means of protecting the flow of illicit money into Western nations.  The massive amounts of property in London owned by Russians is well known only because people have put in a lot of time to try and uncover the tip of the iceberg.  British authorities (before the war at least) said "well, how are we supposed to know?  They use all kinds of shell companies to hide the true owner".  Er, you make the laws... how about making a law that requires a single person to take personal ownership of said property *or* a company registered in the UK?  Financial transaction laws could easily be tightened up too.  So it's obvious that corrupt and/or complacent governments in the West, local to national, have been a huge part of the problem.

Steve

[chrisl]

The aircraft situation over Romania/Black Sea doesn't look that unusual.  Right now I see two Rivet Joints and three tankers.  Pretty typical to have that many tankers, and you never see who they're fueling - I never see them coincide with the larger ELINT/SIGINT/ATC aircraft - presumably there are a bunch of other NATO aircraft cruising around without transmitting ADS-B.

I've had a window open with ADS-BExchange over Eastern Europe through most of this.  The only thing unusual right now is that there are two Rivet Joints instead of one plus some other ELINT/SIGINT aircraft.  Usually there are some BE-20 Guardrails over Latvia or Lithuania, and an E3, with one cruising the Romania/Moldova border and one the east border of Poland.  GlobalHawks over the Black Sea are less common than at the start, but that pattern wasn't that unusual.  I tend to suspect that more is going on if I don't see them all - they're perfectly capable of turning off the transmitters and they leave them on to let Russia know they're being watched.  When there are a lot of tankers and no other planes transmitting is when it's suspicious.

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

If this is 100% verified then that means the Swiss gave approval, which is necessary as part of the contract with Danish forces.  Which is odd because they did not give approval for Germany to send ammunition with the Gepards.

Steve

With the current behaviour of Scholz, I do not put it too far out of reach to say that the denial might have been on request..

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, now I'v found it with request Андрей Симонов РЕБ - only mention as co-autor of this article. And in images - there is and article about his promotion to mayor general rank. But w/o any details who is this general. Secret man  

EuroMaidan Press is saying the general was in charge of airborne troops:

 

 

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, womble said:

Or 10+ tubes firing a 3-round MRSI mission, or 5+ PH200s firing a 6 round mission.

I doubt that's a PzH strike. Even if they are operational now (which I also doubt) the first 6 rounds are very scattered. This looks like regular, pre war UKR artillery to this untrained eye

 

[Huba]

The plot thickens... 

 

[akd]

First indication that Ukrainians think the Izium offensive may have already culminated:

 

[Battlefront.com]

Video on Reddit that I'm linking to so the stupid autoplay doesn't kick in:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/ubpx2b/another_russian_train_falls_off_its_tracks/

It shows a major train car derailment of SPGs.  That's going to be a pain to clean up!

There was also a video (too graphic) that shows a very isolated rural area where IEDs and/or amateur drone bombers were used against two DLPR cars and a van in totally separate locations.  They were driving down farm field roads.  A single person was also targeted off to the side.  Most of it was drone footage, but then there was up close and personal video (that's the graphic part), so not some sort of random attack.  The activities of the Russians is certainly odd and Ukrainians felt it was worth paying attention to.  Anybody have an idea what this is all about?

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/udr1rr/more_russians_in_stolen_cars_being_turned_into/

 

[Battlefront.com]

This video gives you a little sense of the scale of grain theft that's going on.  I presume the trucks are all stolen as well:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/ue3ud0/stolen_grain_trucks_marked_with_a_z_spotted_in/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, akd said:

First indication that Ukrainians think the Izium offensive may have already culminated:

Cool.

It is fascinating to me how good the quality is of OSINT that us "amateurs" are able to make pretty accurate judgements of how the war is going in realtime.  It certainly helps that the Russians are using standard Soviet strategies and tactics (er, when they bother with tactics, that is).  Also, the consistency of the Ukrainian capabilities and the Russian's incapabilities certainly takes a lot of guesswork out of it.

Steve

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, akd said:

First indication that Ukrainians think the Izium offensive may have already culminated:

 

ISW report for today echoes same: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-30

So much for the great Spring Offensive and the jaws of the Bear snapping shut in the Donbas.