How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[CHARLIE43]

15 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Caption contest.

(Source)

"Who can't wait for Combat Mission: South China Sea?"

[sburke]

On the night of 19-20 October, drones targeted the Y. Sverdlov State Owned Enterprise that produces explosives, in the city of Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Russia.

Eyewitnesses said that the first loud explosions were heard in the sky above the city at around 3:30. A total of about 10 explosions were heard with intervals of several minutes between them. There were also sounds of gunfire and machine gun bursts. There has been no official information so far.

The plant is one of Russia's largest manufacturers of industrial explosives, transfer charges for the mining industry, perforating charges for the oil and gas industry, seismic and geophysical work.

The plant was included in Ukraine's sanctions list "for supporting actions that undermine or threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine".

On 23 June 2023, the plant was added to the EU sanctions list, and it is also subject to sanctions imposed by the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and Switzerland.

 

Drones attack explosives factory in Dzerzhinsk, Russia

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, CHARLIE43 said:

"Who can't wait for Combat Mission: South China Sea?"

TAKE MY MONEY!!!

[Offshoot]

6 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Love the hair, though.  Looks like a plastic helmet from a Flash Gordon sci fi show.  

I thought she was half Andorian. Andorians...are a very militarily driven race.

 

[Carolus]

 

I would assume that guy knows kind of what he is talking about, considering he has got the stripes and all and some staff behind him, but his point runs counter to what the thread generally indicates, which is that Russia is in troubled water and actually gets weaker as time goes on.

Another case of "expert blindess" like from the beginning of the invasion, or does he mean "stronger in relation to NATO experiences" or what could be the interpretation? Is he seeing something not yet seen in this thread?

Edited October 20 by Carolus

[poesel]

18 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Caption contest.

(Source)

From the linked article:

"Additionally, fake identifications disguising them as locals were also provided, apparently to conceal their participation, by making them appear as part of the Russian forces. "

What does stop them from surrendering? Well, except for the lack of knowledge that a life in an Ukrainian prison is better than 'freedom' in NK...

[poesel]

21 minutes ago, Carolus said:

 

I would assume that guy knows kind of what he is talking about, considering he has got the stripes and all and some staff behind him, but his point runs counter to what the thread generally indicates, which is that Russia is in troubled water and actually gets weaker as time goes on.

Another case of "expert blindess" like from the beginning of the invasion, or does he mean "stronger in relation to NATO experiences" or what could be the interpretation? Is he seeing something not yet seen in this thread?

I read the interview. It is not totally clear what he exactly meant by 'stronger'. But I think he mainly means experience.

But in that case (post Ukrainian war Russian aggression) we have the Ukrainians. Same experience, better motivation.

 

 

[chuckdyke]

4 hours ago, CHARLIE43 said:

"Who can't wait for Combat Mission: South China Sea?"

As much chance of getting a WW2 US Marines Island Hopping Campaign. I would love to see something like that. Or Merrills Marauders is another one. 

[dan/california]

https://substack.com/home/post/p-150450805?source=queue&autoPlay=false

It certainly is a sign that Russia does not have limitless resources of manpower (which it sometimes seems if you read the press). However the importance of the move is not that its desperate, its that it confirms the utter and complete failure of American and leading European states’s policy of trying to micro-manage the war by limiting the aid Ukraine is given—and what Ukraine can do with that aid. I wont rehash all that here (regular readers of this substack will know its been a repeated subject for more than two years), but the length and destructiveness and, dare we say it one-sided escalation pattern, of this war is down mostly to the way in which aid to Ukraine has been constrained.

Edit: This Professor Philips Obrien's Substack, just to be clear.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/

Edited October 21 by dan/california

[Kraft]

7 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

I think this might be the first on video fragging we have seen.

Besides the assisted suicides, there have also been 2 other videos. Wagner mob clubbing their commander in Bakhmut in 2023 and a two man scout team that turned into one russian running home after shooting the other in the back, somewhat recently.

[Kraft]

3 hours ago, Carolus said:

Another case of "expert blindess" like from the beginning of the invasion, or does he mean "stronger in relation to NATO experiences" or what could be the interpretation? Is he seeing something not yet seen in this thread?

Irregardless of what he meant, the russian army has become a lot more efficient compared to pre-invasion even though that was a low bar.

I heard an artillery man say last year that counter battery fire had become so quick, they have less than half the time they did in 2022 to leave before shells arrive, similar with iskander/kab strikes on larger assets deep behind lines. Their drone teams are good and would chew up  western army logistic chains (excluding all other factors ofc). It seems the threat of drones has not been recognized or Id expect nets on all vehicles already, the IDF that had to deal with very limited amounts of drones adopted grills immediately

And despite the poor morale, they have very effective ways of motivating people to even choose suicide in the field over confronting their superiors, I see that mirrored in old ww2 german testomonies, who claimed red army soldiers feared their commander more than the enemy - which I misjudged as unrealistic exaggeration

Edited October 21 by Kraft

[ASL Veteran]

 

[sburke]

A former Russian oil executive has been found dead after apparently falling from the window of his Moscow flat.

Mikhail Rogachev was found outside his 10th-story apartment in Moscow with injuries consistent with a fall, Russian media reported.

Russian news agencies said authorities were treating his death as a suicide.

Telegram channels close to the Russian security services said his body was discovered by an agent of the SVR, Russia’s foreign intelligence service, who was walking the dog of a senior spymaster in the building’s courtyard on Saturday morning.

The 64-year-old was a former vice-president of Yukos, the oil giant that was broken up and after its billionaire owner Mikhail Khodorkovsky was imprisoned after challenging Vladimir Putin.

He went on to work as executive director of the Onexim group, oligarch Mikhail Prokhorov’s investment vehicle, and later deputy general director of Norilsk Nickel, a mining giant.

He is the latest of nearly a dozen Russian energy executives to die in mysterious circumstances over the past two years.

 

Former Russian oil executive found dead after ‘fall’

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Telegram channels close to the Russian security services said his body was discovered by an agent of the SVR, Russia’s foreign intelligence service, who was walking the dog of a senior spymaster in the building’s courtyard on Saturday morning.

Is it lazy or arrogant when the same guy who threw him out the window "finds" the body. 

[sburke]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Is it lazy or arrogant when the same guy who threw him out the window "finds" the body. 

multi tasking

[Battlefront.com]

15 hours ago, Kraft said:

That russia is just starting to reaching the end of its volunteer base with these measures while Ukraine has long been past that means whatever arguments about rus economic/societal troubles more than double apply. I assume the russian population is less willing to suffer to the same scale, yet I assumed they would care about well more than half a million casualties and daily attacks, soaring inflation,.. and yet the zombies do little besides whine that their youtube and discord can be accessed only with vpn. The average russian family is not missing members, and that some rus village in nowhere is half empty moves the moscovite heart little.

This points to Russia's much larger population to draw from (3x more) and significant cultural shortcomings that make Russians more likely to volunteer for money and/or glory and/or nationalism.

Put another way, Russia is better able to get volunteers compared to Ukraine precisely because Ukraine's population believes they have something worth living for.  Russians?  Not so much.

15 hours ago, Kraft said:

Given the nonnegotiating position of putin, I would assume he is more than confident he is on the winning side in this attrition,

I would not assume this.  He might simply be confident that anything other than Ukraine surrendering to his demands will lead to the end of his regime.  If he cares more about his regime (i.e. himself) than his country, then it makes perfect sense to continue the war. 

We also don't know how well informed Putin is, so he could be confident based on bad information.

We also don't know if Putin is smart enough to know how badly things are going.

Etc.

All we can say for sure is that after more than 2.5 years of war he isn't showing any signs of compromising on destroying Ukraine no matter what.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

On 10/19/2024 at 10:26 PM, ArmouredTopHat said:

I would only add that Russia is going to have -significant- issues with equipment next year if losses continue at their current rates, they are running out of stuff they can refurbish fast. Which could mean their current methods of attack become even more unsustainable. Not to mention any fresh meat they raise will be further poorly equipped and thus less likely to achieve anything in the first place.

Yes, meat waves without supporting arms (or even small arms!) would certainly be less effective.  The variety of material challenges facing Russia in 2025 are indeed many and significant.  And that's not counting Ukraine doing things like blowing up key infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Kraft said:

Irregardless of what he meant, the russian army has become a lot more efficient compared to pre-invasion even though that was a low bar.

If that's what he meant, I'd agree with that.  There's lots and lots of examples of improvements in how Russia wages war now vs. February 2022.  But that's to be expected because they went to war with a peacetime army that was completely unprepared for a real war.  It's hard to imagine Russia learning no lessons.

Having said that, the Germans learned a lot of lessons on the Eastern Front and there are many significant examples of them being put into good use.  In fact, those lessons were valuable enough that the US Army (and others) made sure they tapped into that knowledge.  Germany also learned a lot of things fighting the Western Allies and showed they could translate those lessons into action as well.  However, learning and applying lessons doesn't mean much of anything on its own.  I mean, after all, Germany lost WW2.

Let's also not forget that one of the reasons Russia was able to learn lessons is because they were able to tap into 40+ years of war production.  Most of that is gone now and Russia's production capacity can't keep up with current demand, not to mention rebuilding it's weapon stocks.  This is important because against a more capable foe (i.e. NATO) it's unlikely to have the material available to buy itself time as it is doing now.

Steve

[MikeyD]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If that's what he meant...

I read statement more cynically. To me it sounded a bit like 'Russia is finished as a great power - Oh wait, I just stepped on to toes of domestic arms manufacturers! Let me amend my statement to assure you we will still need to purchase a steady stream of big ticket items for the foreseeable future'.

Edited Monday at 05:48 AM by MikeyD

[Joe982]

Another "provocation ".

The internet talks of South Korean troops going to Ukraine to interrogate Noth Korean prisoners.

I hope they send a whole division!

[Yet]

1 hour ago, MikeyD said:

I read statement more cynically. To me it sounded a bit like 'Russia is finished as a great power - Oh wait, I just stepped on to toes of domestic arms manufacturers! Let me amend my statement to assure you we will still need to purchase a steady stream of big ticket items for the foreseeable future'.

imo it could be interpreted as: Ru now knows how to prepare for next war and will invest in C4isr, drones, mines, microdrones and AA instead of in fighters, tanks and other multimillion steel products like the West will continue to do. And Ru will change their training and doctrine to use it more effectively than currently.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

multi tasking

 

KISS ME HARDYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!

[Raskol]

On other news, Moldova's referendum to join the EU passed.

 

[Joe982]

19 minutes ago, Raskol said:

On other news, Moldova's referendum to join the EU passed.

 

Hooray! All that Russian money wasted!

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Raskol said:

On other news, Moldova's referendum to join the EU passed.

 

 

Allegedly, Russia has bought 300,000 votes in a country of 2,5 million. Participation was 50%. Let's just assume 2 million are eligible to vote. So 1 mil DID vote and of those 300k were bought by Russia.

So actually, 500k voted for the EU and 200k against it. That means the real number is more like 71% for and 29% against.

What a few millions can do for democracy...

Edited Monday at 09:23 AM by poesel
math...