How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Can we just drop the Canadian film thing?  There was some interesting angles to explore with that... but it was pages ago and is now just a corpse of a dead horse being flogged.  The clouds of flies are getting a little thick and the smell isn't all that pleasant.

Separate from this specific issue, we are all here to learn.  At least I hope that's the case.  I'm glad the two films got brought into this discussion as part of the larger discussion of nefarious Russian influence activities.  I'm glad we also had a chance to see how stupidity like the funding of this film can happen without there being any larger forces at work. 

In fact, that is the most insidious part of the Russian influence campaign... it's most effective results are at the lower levels of society, not the higher ones.  For every one Paul Manafort there are dozens of people we've never heard of actively, passively, or unknowingly helping Russia undermine Western society and help the Russian Empire in the process.

Steve

[Carolus]

40 minutes ago, sburke said:

 

This sounds to me like a legitimate basis for an international task force to protect shipping in international waters.  We do it versus Yemen, don't see this as any different.

Russia seems to be making some direct messages to Romania.  If I were Romania I'd ask for some international support to defend legitimate civilian traffic in international waters.  

And there would be more than one party who could make the case that merchant vessels should be better left alone. The ship is (as so many) flying the flag of St. Kitts and Navis, but is owned by Turkey and was destined for Egypt, and neither can be too pleased about this - if only because insurance rates have just gone up for a trip to the Black Sea. 

[Kraft]

20 hours ago, Kraft said:

True, although I am unsure if putin is supporting these groups further as they are a looming danger to him in case of continued failure in SVO, not the peace doves.

In the last couple of days, "thirteenth", a popular nat TG channel, uploaded videos in which he was calling for not just the top brass but also putin ! himself to face serious physical consequences (I think a buddy of his died) for continued failures and bad corrupt commanders that are not reprimanded. The Videos have since been deleated. This sort of direct criticism of the tsar himself has been steadily growing, not as fast as Id like though.

 coincidence. A little meaningless story from today.

Dmitry Lysakovsky, a russian drone operator, in light of recent not russia funded movies, here with a humanizing cat picture:

He started his career in killing about a decade ago (despite the cat) in 2014 as the creator of a DPR UAV detachment for which he was commander/operator.

Returning to russia in 2015, he was sentenced for looting. Evil tongues claim that it was his favor/idealism for (too much) DPR independence , that landed him behind bars for a few years. Sadly not everyone is afforded a Givi/Motorola treatment, it would have saved some lifes.

In 2022 he continued his work as a drone detachment commander, rank colonel? Callsign: "Goodwin" for DPR forces.

It is claimed that he was skilled and effective, qualities that are suppressed in the russian armed forces. Following 2.5 years of misery, Goodwin in a brilliant stroke of genius, decides to publicly denounce his superior in the 87th Regiment of 1st Slavic Brigade of selling drugs and being a criminal thug. 

Justice did not wait long:

That is the story of the ? Colonel ? Who went missing on a meat assault near Prokrovsk. The end

 

 A lot more detail info in english here.

One of the translated videos, also gives good detail on the state of current operations

There is supposedly a video of him filming his final message on said meat assault but FSB quickly had a talk wrt spreading it.

Edited Friday at 06:53 PM by Kraft

[Vanir Ausf B]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

is now just a corpse of a dead horse being flogged.  The clouds of flies are getting a little thick and the smell isn't all that pleasant.

Speaking of dead horses...

https://www.wsj.com/world/the-once-dominant-tank-is-getting-humbled-on-the-battlefield-4a6862c3

(paywalled, probably)

Nothing revelatory, but the US Army is apparently looking into something similar to the Russian Nakidka.

Quote

At the start of the war, commanders would often hide their tanks and other armored vehicles by digging trenches and camouflaging them. They would then emerge to shoot at the enemy when they came into range.

“Now everything is being watched, so you can’t even dig a hole to hide,” said Lubomyr Stakhiv, a junior sergeant in another brigade. These days they stay out of the range of drones and drive into position to hit the enemy, he said.

A tank commander’s skill was once determined by their ability in tank duels and protecting infantry, but now it is about the ability to covertly fire and quickly retreat.

“You cannot leave for even a moment battle tanks in the open area. Whenever movement stops, you have to be below the trees, you have to get cover,” he said.

Efforts are also under way to make tanks harder to detect, from changing how they are painted to reducing their electronic signatures, said Doug Bush, the U.S. Army’s assistant secretary for acquisitions, logistics and technology.

Sweden’s Saab says it is seeing a lot of interest in a camouflage netting it offers that wraps around all parts of a tank, making them harder to see and partly cloaking the heat emitted from the vehicles.

 

 

Edited Friday at 07:02 PM by Vanir Ausf B

[Butschi]

Deleted as per Steve's request.

Edited Friday at 07:29 PM by Butschi

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Can we just drop the Canadian film thing?  There was some interesting angles to explore with that... but it was pages ago and is now just a corpse of a dead horse being flogged.  The clouds of flies are getting a little thick and the smell isn't all that pleasant.

Separate from this specific issue, we are all here to learn.  At least I hope that's the case.  I'm glad the two films got brought into this discussion as part of the larger discussion of nefarious Russian influence activities.  I'm glad we also had a chance to see how stupidity like the funding of this film can happen without there being any larger forces at work. 

In fact, that is the most insidious part of the Russian influence campaign... it's most effective results are at the lower levels of society, not the higher ones.  For every one Paul Manafort there are dozens of people we've never heard of actively, passively, or unknowingly helping Russia undermine Western society and help the Russian Empire in the process.

Steve

If it's ok...I can pass on a personal experience on this front. I actually ran into a French influencer while on a trip in Japan who, when he realized my wife and lived in DC, proceeded to regale us with the glories of his life in Saint Petersburg and how immigration was ruining France. He did not, for some time, realize that we know France quite well and also assumed because we played dumb that we didn't understand anything about the war in Ukraine. It was utterly fascinating to see in microcosm how the game is played by these folks and how in his version it was tailored to a French perspective. And he is one of quite literally thousands. 

What we did not know until today is that, as an RT employee, he works pretty much directly for Russian intelligence. 

Coda: after we let him yammer on for a while, he stumbled into a critique of 'decadent art' only to discover that my better half is a working artist and topic expert. He was gone, in outraged confusion, within three minutes. Personally I felt cheated I didn't get my shot. C'est la vie. 

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, Kraft said:

 

There is supposedly a video of him filming his final message on said meat assault but FSB quickly had a talk wrt spreading it.

To quote Saul Enderby from 'Smiley's People',

4:25 'You'd think a man making his deathbed confession would have the grace to keep it brief, wouldn't you? but oh no....'

 

[paxromana]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm glad you did not put Poutine on that list.  It might be an example of a "total disregard for humanity", but by gawd I do love me some genuine Quebec Poutine.  In fact, I don't know why I'm not having Poutine right now (let's see how many get that Canadian reference).

Steve

I do not understand how rational beings can ruin perfectly good chips (fries to our American friends) with such horror ... but, then, we generally don't dip our chips in tomato sauce here in Oz, either! 

Edited Friday at 10:47 PM by paxromana

[FancyCat]

Quote

US-supplied AM General Hawkeye Mobile Howitzer System in experimental Ukrainian service, seen here sending a 105mm shell towards a Russian position. The Hawkeye sports a 105mm light artillery piece mounted on a flatbed HMMWV.

 

Additional photos of the system in Ukrainian service from AM General.

https://t.me/TyskNIP/13113

https://www.amgeneral.com/what-we-do/vehicles-chassis/humvee-2ct-hawkeye-mhs/

 

[The_Capt]

24 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

That thing looks pretty smart. Fast, light and likely cheap. Where is JonS to tell us why this thing wil not work?

[ASL Veteran]

 

[ASL Veteran]

 

[JonS]

On 9/14/2024 at 11:26 AM, The_Capt said:

That thing looks pretty smart. Fast, light and likely cheap. Where is JonS to tell us why this thing wil not work?

Don't you have some beavers to go and molest, and a spelling dictionary to invest in? Besides, you're the one who's fully drunk the UAV koolaid - to only slightly paraphrase your last 12 months of "output": We don't need no stinking combined-arms or artillery, just gimme more UAVs!

I still think combined arms is a thing, and that artillery is ace.

 

This HMMWV/gun thingy is an interesting piece of kit - they must have spent a lot of time on the recoil system. Looking at the published specs it seems they have may sacrificed some range for mobility ... although, I don't recognise that ordnance, so maybe not.

Edit: I think it might be the fun bit from an old M101A1 or an M102, except the breech mech looks like it's from an M119. The lack of a muzzle brake to try and get the balance right kinda screams "lashup"

Edited Sunday at 12:30 AM by JonS

[billbindc]

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

To quote Saul Enderby from 'Smiley's People',

4:25 'You'd think a man making his deathbed confession would have the grace to keep it brief, wouldn't you? but oh no....'

 

Literally in the middle of watching this for the nth time. Well done.

[sburke]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/russia-hikes-interest-rates-to-19-amid-soaring-inflation-and-war-costs/ar-AA1qxjjx?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=671ef0f9b7f945a8a14386348563be4b&ei=36
 

 

The Russian central bank, striving to combat inflation, has raised interest rates to 19 percent. According to AFP, inflationary pressure is increasing due to public spending intended to support the offensive in Ukraine.

The head of the Russian central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, stated that inflation has become "unacceptable." "We are ready to maintain a strict monetary policy for as long as necessary," she added during a press conference.

According to official statistics, the price increase in Russia in August was 9.05 percent. However, Pawel Jezowski, a stock investor and analyst of Russian economic data, claims it reaches up to 30 percent, as he mentioned at the end of July on the program "Didaskalia."
The Russian central bank raised interest rates from 16 percent to 19 percent. Nabiullina acknowledged that "the labor market remains tight" and that insufficient employment in many sectors of the economy is the "main obstacle" preventing production from increasing. According to AFP, employment shortages are not only due to the industry's competition with the army for people but also as a result of thousands of individuals fleeing abroad.

Significant spending on the army, payments to soldiers and their families, and spending on the arms sector, coupled with the overall shift of the Russian economy to a wartime mode, largely neutralizes the effects of Western sanctions. But this leads to inflation, explains the French agency.

In recent months, heads of Russian companies have complained about rising bank credit costs and, consequently, investments, which they say limits economic growth, especially in sectors not related to the arms industry.

The newspaper "Le Monde" recently emphasized that "the economy of death drives economic growth in Russia." According to the Parisian newspaper, significant spending on the arms industry, salaries for soldiers, compensation, and benefits for their families create a "financial bubble that prolongs the war."

"Due to these significant sums spent on the wartime economy and contract soldier salaries in Russia, there has been consumption-driven growth. (...) Unemployment is at its lowest level - 2.6 percent. Based on such parameters, the World Bank placed Russia on the list of 'high-income' countries in July," reported "Le Monde."

The cash injection that goes to consumers increases demand, but it also overheats the Russian economy, causing inflation to rise.

Nabiullina acknowledged at the end of July that "employee reserves and production capacities are virtually exhausted." The war causes a shortage of workers, while the entire industrial-military complex is looking for labor to maintain production at the required level, working 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Thoughts on this everyone?

Claimed to have parts commonality with the Leo 2 with some interesting breaching characteristics:

Meet the Keiler Next Generation, Rheinmetall‘s latest Armoured Breaching Vehicle (ABV). The highly protected system combines the mobility and agility of a modern tracked platform with various means of action for fast and reliable overcoming of obstacles and mine barriers in any terrain.

A full-width mine plough is complimented with Rheinmetall’s innovative Plofadder Mine Clearing Line Charge (MICLIC). Fired from the rear part of the ABV and detonated on the ground, the explosive line breaks at least 160m long and 9m wide passage per system in a very short time through large-scale mine barriers. Keiler NG leads the way by making the lanes created recognizable for the following forces, even in restricted visibility or at night. Next to active and passive protection measures, other features include a magnetic signature duplicator for initiating mines from a safe distance, as well as a front-end interface for picking up the plough with an emergency ejection mechanism.

The Keiler NG is able to assemble the plough independently using the crane or to resupply itself with ammunition or other Plofadder systems. While a high degree of commonality with for example Kodiak and Leopard 2 offers high mobility, simplified logistics and reduced verification efforts, future growth potentials include an active protection system, remote/autonomous operation and mesh network communication.

[ArmouredTopHat]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1ff9azr/russian_soldier_put_grenade_under_himself_and/

I cannot understand these stupid, fruitless attempts by certain Russians to larp as Imperial Japanese soldiers. Its a disturbingly frequent occurrence.  

[sburke]

Putin's commodities ban threat puzzles Russian firms and officials (msn.com)

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian officials and managers are perplexed by President Vladimir Putin's surprise threat to limit exports of strategic commodities in response to Western sanctions, and wonder if it can be realised without hurting Russia more than the West.

Putin made the suggestion 23 minutes into a routine government meeting on Wednesday, asking Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to come up with some ideas that would not harm Russia's interests.

Yet many of Russia's commodities such as oil, gas, nickel, titanium, gold and diamonds are already subject to various levels of voluntary or mandatory import restrictions or even bans imposed by the West itself.

Russian government officials and company executives were caught off guard.

"Everyone is in a state of shock," said a source in one of the affected companies, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of appearing to criticise the president. "This initiative came really out of the blue."

Another company source said: "It's like shooting yourself in the foot."

Cutting exports of uranium, nickel and titanium - which Putin mentioned explicitly - would cut the foreign currency earnings of Russia's biggest firms including state-owned industrial conglomerate Rostec, state nuclear monopoly Rosatom and Nornickel, the world's top producer of refined nickel.

Together, they employ about a million people, and their revenues have already been affected by Western sanctions. 

Nornickel's first-half profit fell by 22% as it tries to pivot its exports to Asia. It has described the combination of low nickel prices and Western sanctions as a "perfect storm".

The global market price of nickel did blip upwards on Putin's comments - but the current wealth of supply means it is far below historic highs.

A Russian government source, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said any ban should spare so-called "friendly" countries including China, Russia's major trading partner.

URANIUM RESTRICTIONS COULD HURT WEST

The source stressed that it would take some time for the government to develop the plan - and that an order from the president to do so had yet to reach the government.

Another source close to the government added that Putin had "asked for a plan to be worked out, not implemented".

Major Russian commodities producers declined to comment.

Russia and the West are entering a new level of confrontation over the Ukraine war and Russia is pondering ways to respond to what it says is almost certain Western approval for Ukraine to strike deep into Russia using Western weapons.

Putin said that if Russia went ahead, the measure would not be limited to uranium, nickel and titanium. He noted that Russia has 22% of the world's natural gas reserves, 23% of gold reserves, and 55% of global diamond reserves.

Uranium may be the one commodity where restrictions could genuinely hurt the West.

Russia accounted for 27% of the enriched uranium supplied to U.S. commercial nuclear reactors last year. While the U.S. has in theory banned imports of the fuel from Russia, it also provided for waivers through 2027 as it expands its own enrichment facilities.

Yet Europe has largely weaned itself off the Russian gas it used to depend on. Group of Seven and European Union bans on imports of Russian-origin diamonds forced Moscow to buy up diamonds from its sanctions-hit producer, Alrosa. And all Russia's major gold producers are already under Western sanctions.

Meanwhile, Russia's largest titanium sponge maker VSMPO-AVISMA, partly owned by Rostec, has been struggling to find replacements for supplies of titanium concentrate from Ukraine, with which Russia is at war.

Putin himself emphasised that restrictions would not happen "tomorrow", and that they must not harm Russia's interests.

On Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed the as-yet hypothetical nature of the idea.

"There are no specifics yet, it was a proposal to think about it without harming ourselves, without damaging our own interests," he said. "They (the government) will consider it."

[The_Capt]

9 hours ago, JonS said:

Don't you have some beavers to go and molest, and a spelling dictionary to invest in? Besides, you're the one who's fully drunk the UAV koolaid - to only slightly paraphrase your last 12 months of "output": We don't need no stinking combined-arms or artillery, just gimme more UAVs!

I still think combined arms is a thing, and that artillery is ace.

 

This HMMWV/gun thingy it an interesting piece of kit - they must have spent a lot of time on the recoil system. Looking at the published specs it seems they have may sacrificed some range for mobility ... although, I don't recognise that ordnance, so maybe not.

Edit: I think it might be the fun bit from an old M101A1 or an M102, except the breech mech looks like it's from an M119. The lack of a muzzle brake to try and get the balance right kinda screams "lashup"

I believe my stated position is “gimme all the UAVs!!!” At your age you cannot stay quiet for so long or people are bound to begin holding mirrors up to your nose.

Of course combined arms is still a thing, silly old gunner. Now what constitutes combined arms is the point of debate.

My thinking is this little beast with PGM could be Daddy’s Little Nightmare.

And for the record, all beaver related activities have, and will continue to be, wholly consensual.

[fry30]

15 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Where is JonS to tell us why this thing wil not work?

13 hours ago, JonS said:

Don't you have some beavers to go and molest, and a spelling dictionary to invest in? Besides, you're the one who's fully drunk the UAV koolaid - to only slightly paraphrase your last 12 months of "output": We don't need no stinking combined-arms or artillery, just gimme more UAVs!

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice. 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Another example of Russian propaganda at work.  This came to me by a friend who knows the publication is a propaganda rag, but was wondering what the real story was that was being distorted.  Obviously, people here know the answer.  I'm including it because it's a good example of the sort of crap that the right and left so easily fall victim to:
https://asiatimes.com/2024/09/biden-nato-effectively-declaring-war-on-russia/

Steve

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, fry30 said:

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice. 

 

 

Clearly raising him from the crypt made him crankier. Distilling my input from the last year to "gimme more UAVs" was particularly hurtful. I mean there was all that mass, systems and emerging dynamics of warfare stuff, but gunners get bored easily if something isn't exploding next to their heads every few seconds.

Edited Saturday at 04:23 PM by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, sburke said:

Putin's commodities ban threat puzzles Russian firms and officials (msn.com)

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian officials and managers are perplexed by President Vladimir Putin's surprise threat to limit exports of strategic commodities in response to Western sanctions, and wonder if it can be realised without hurting Russia more than the West.

Putin made the suggestion 23 minutes into a routine government meeting on Wednesday, asking Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to come up with some ideas that would not harm Russia's interests.

Yet many of Russia's commodities such as oil, gas, nickel, titanium, gold and diamonds are already subject to various levels of voluntary or mandatory import restrictions or even bans imposed by the West itself.

Russian government officials and company executives were caught off guard.

"Everyone is in a state of shock," said a source in one of the affected companies, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of appearing to criticise the president. "This initiative came really out of the blue."

Another company source said: "It's like shooting yourself in the foot."

Cutting exports of uranium, nickel and titanium - which Putin mentioned explicitly - would cut the foreign currency earnings of Russia's biggest firms including state-owned industrial conglomerate Rostec, state nuclear monopoly Rosatom and Nornickel, the world's top producer of refined nickel.

Together, they employ about a million people, and their revenues have already been affected by Western sanctions. 

Nornickel's first-half profit fell by 22% as it tries to pivot its exports to Asia. It has described the combination of low nickel prices and Western sanctions as a "perfect storm".

The global market price of nickel did blip upwards on Putin's comments - but the current wealth of supply means it is far below historic highs.

A Russian government source, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said any ban should spare so-called "friendly" countries including China, Russia's major trading partner.

URANIUM RESTRICTIONS COULD HURT WEST

The source stressed that it would take some time for the government to develop the plan - and that an order from the president to do so had yet to reach the government.

Another source close to the government added that Putin had "asked for a plan to be worked out, not implemented".

Major Russian commodities producers declined to comment.

Russia and the West are entering a new level of confrontation over the Ukraine war and Russia is pondering ways to respond to what it says is almost certain Western approval for Ukraine to strike deep into Russia using Western weapons.

Putin said that if Russia went ahead, the measure would not be limited to uranium, nickel and titanium. He noted that Russia has 22% of the world's natural gas reserves, 23% of gold reserves, and 55% of global diamond reserves.

Uranium may be the one commodity where restrictions could genuinely hurt the West.

Russia accounted for 27% of the enriched uranium supplied to U.S. commercial nuclear reactors last year. While the U.S. has in theory banned imports of the fuel from Russia, it also provided for waivers through 2027 as it expands its own enrichment facilities.

Yet Europe has largely weaned itself off the Russian gas it used to depend on. Group of Seven and European Union bans on imports of Russian-origin diamonds forced Moscow to buy up diamonds from its sanctions-hit producer, Alrosa. And all Russia's major gold producers are already under Western sanctions.

Meanwhile, Russia's largest titanium sponge maker VSMPO-AVISMA, partly owned by Rostec, has been struggling to find replacements for supplies of titanium concentrate from Ukraine, with which Russia is at war.

Putin himself emphasised that restrictions would not happen "tomorrow", and that they must not harm Russia's interests.

On Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed the as-yet hypothetical nature of the idea.

"There are no specifics yet, it was a proposal to think about it without harming ourselves, without damaging our own interests," he said. "They (the government) will consider it."

This just shows how little Russia has to retaliate with.  It's very much a situation of "oh yeah!  Well, if you do that I'm going to cut off my own right arm.  Let's see how you like that, tough guy".

Russia did a whole bunch of this at the start of the war.  For sure someone in the West comes out a loser when this sort of thing happens because any disruption at all for any reason produces losers.  But it also produces winners, such as whomever picks up the slack from Russia.  That's the beauty of demand side economics.

You'll really know Russia's getting desperate if it threatens to cut off oil exports

Steve

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Seems Ukraine might have a bit more steam in its Kursk operation than previously thought. 

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Thoughts on this everyone?

Claimed to have parts commonality with the Leo 2 with some interesting breaching characteristics:

Meet the Keiler Next Generation, Rheinmetall‘s latest Armoured Breaching Vehicle (ABV). The highly protected system combines the mobility and agility of a modern tracked platform with various means of action for fast and reliable overcoming of obstacles and mine barriers in any terrain.

A full-width mine plough is complimented with Rheinmetall’s innovative Plofadder Mine Clearing Line Charge (MICLIC). Fired from the rear part of the ABV and detonated on the ground, the explosive line breaks at least 160m long and 9m wide passage per system in a very short time through large-scale mine barriers. Keiler NG leads the way by making the lanes created recognizable for the following forces, even in restricted visibility or at night. Next to active and passive protection measures, other features include a magnetic signature duplicator for initiating mines from a safe distance, as well as a front-end interface for picking up the plough with an emergency ejection mechanism.

The Keiler NG is able to assemble the plough independently using the crane or to resupply itself with ammunition or other Plofadder systems. While a high degree of commonality with for example Kodiak and Leopard 2 offers high mobility, simplified logistics and reduced verification efforts, future growth potentials include an active protection system, remote/autonomous operation and mesh network communication.

There is still a very big need for these vehicles, but the tactics of using them has definitely become far more challenging.  There's also the usual question of cost.  Is this thing, which likely costs at least 10x more than a typical tank plow, worth the expense?  Or would it be more practical to have 10 outdated tanks outfitted with plows and be prepared to lose most of them?  I'm on the side of the latter.

Steve