How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

11 hours ago, Carolus said:

Also, Rybar is celebrating the elections in Germany like a military victory.

 

I think I still have my 'singing Mao lighter' in a box someplace (1990s hipster paraphernalia)

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, Vlad said:

Hello guys,

I've decided to finally register here on the forums. I came over here from BGG forums, where someone has put up a link to this monster of a thread and being the masochist I am, I started reading from the beginning. Currently around page 720 but oh boy, it's been a blast from the past- initial onslaught, Ukrainian tractors, sinking of Moskva, discoveries around Bucha, etc. Added to that plenty of additional insight from many of you guys made it an interesting experience, even with plenty of informations I haven't seen elsewhere - be it info directly from Ukraine, or people with military experience providing their POV. My only info about the wa...*ahem* "special military operation" was from one Czech Facebook page compiling the OSINT into daily reports.

 

Anyways, here's my contribution to this thread:

I'm from Slovakia, so neighboring Ukraine, in fact I live about 10 kms (~6miles?) from UA border. In a country, where russian intelligence did a damn good job of polarising the public. We have plenty of people either believing the Russian narrative, actively pushing it (including several members of our Parliament) or even being on Kremlin's payroll (IIRC some German journalists provided a list of people payed by a Russian oligarch, which included one former MoP from a splinter of our  "we're not fascists, honestly" party). Heck, one of our "alternative media" "writers" got eavesdropped while meeting a Russian GRU (or FSB or whichever branch does this) agent who promised him 500€ for each new person he recruits.

It helped to sow a kind of war weariness in our population, which I see on my wife. She went from buying non-perishable food and giving stuff like old baby clothes, or baby carriage for the Ukrainian refugees to "those Ukrainians get this and that for free" over the time. It didn't turn her pro-Russian, just changed her perception of the situation.

 

In fact it has helped our former PM Róbert Fico back to power who rode the wave of pro-Russian sentiment to build a government. He is pretty much what you get when you order a crossbreed of Viktor Orbán and Silvio Berlusconi from Wish. Yes, he has pro-Russian and "pro-peace" rhetoric, but that's only because his opponents are for helping Ukraine.  If it was the other way around, he'd be selling everything including his underpants to help Ukraine. Hell, even on a meeting with Ukrainian government about two months ago he admitted that his pro-peace and pro-Russian rhetoric are just "for domestic audinece" and he didn't block any EU effort, in fact he contributed to it.

Alright, I won't bother you about inner politics of a meaningless little country anymore, back to reading. Those ~3k pages of discussion won't read themselves.  

Kronar has returned!!!! (you've been warned)

[Kraft]

[alison]

President Lai getting in on the Putin trolling: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/02/if-china-wants-taiwan-it-should-also-reclaim-land-from-russia-says-president

Quote

“If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t it take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the treaty of Aigun? Russia is now at its weakest, right?” he said, referencing an 1858 treaty in which Russia annexed about 1m sq km of Chinese territory, including Haishengwei – today known as Vladivostok.

Or, as the local news puts it: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/09/02/2003823123

Quote

China’s ambition to annex Taiwan is based on a desire to change the rules-based international order, rather than a desire for territorial gains, President William Lai (賴清德) said in an interview.

Meanwhile the real political headlines in Taiwan are about the latest wave of corruption scandals, which (amongst other things) resulted in the leader of the party that holds the balance of power in the legislature briefly getting arrested over the weekend.

Anyway, as a fan of democracy it feels good to hear a leader still championing the importance of the rules-based international order. On the other hand, as a follower of this war and reader of all y'all's fanfic on what could happen if/when Russia falls, I am slightly less sanguine about Xi's alleged lack of interest in expanding the borders north. And yet, what better way for Lai to present himself as an advocate of the status quo than simply affirming things as they are today?

Just sharing another tea leaf.

Edited September 2 by alison

[Hapless]

What?

Not sure how effective that is, but wow.

[Nastypastie]

19 minutes ago, Hapless said:

What?

Not sure how effective that is, but wow.

How they're dispensing that without atomizing the drone would be VERY interesting to know!

 

Just one more grim marvel of the modern world. How long until civilians are able to burn each others houses down with this stuff?

Edited September 2 by Nastypastie

[TheVulture]

3 minutes ago, Nastypastie said:

How they're dispensing that without atomizing the drone would be VERY interesting to know!

 

Just one more grim marvel of the modern world. How long until civilians are able to burn each others houses down with this stuff?

I'd imagine a pottery container (a flowerpot would do) hanging on a few chains beneath a drone that can lift a few kg.

 

[Hister]

2 hours ago, Hapless said:

What?

Not sure how effective that is, but wow.

Oh man, that is some scarry stuff!  

[acrashb]

3 hours ago, Hapless said:

What?

I love the smell of thermite in the morning.  

Both thermite and napalm are easy to make.  I've been a bit surprised at the lack of flame weapons so far in this war.
 

When you burn out a tree line, a) the bad guys are gone one way or the next and b) it is less effective as concealment for the replacement batch.

 

[Bufo]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Those look like AP mines.  I'm not sure that's really an effective concept since soldiers are likely to spot them before triggering.  AT mines, on the other hand, are a different story completely.

Steve

AFAICS those fuses are for to the TM-62 and TM-72 AT mines, so unless modified they aren't supposed to be bodyweight activated.

Edited September 2 by Bufo

[acrashb]

On 8/31/2024 at 2:37 PM, The_Capt said:

Meh. It’s a living.

Some lightness to brighten up one's view of the human condition:
https://www.carnegiehero.org/hero-search/nicholas-l-bostic/

And some flavour to the heroism, straight from X, that hellscape of right-wing ideology.  It turns out our hero a) asked about the welfare of the young girl he just rescued while lying on the ground with arm cuts so bad that first responders had just applied a tourniquet (near the end of the bodycam footage) and b) was only two months sober, from meth, at the time of the rescue.  He is still sober today (2 years later) has a new child and a job.  This is some micro-social good stuff. They guy is hugely imperfect, but look what he did.

Kind of a parable for humanity.

 

[The_Capt]

35 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Some lightness to brighten up one's view of the human condition:
https://www.carnegiehero.org/hero-search/nicholas-l-bostic/

And some flavour to the heroism, straight from X, that hellscape of right-wing ideology.  It turns out our hero a) asked about the welfare of the young girl he just rescued while lying on the ground with arm cuts so bad that first responders had just applied a tourniquet (near the end of the bodycam footage) and b) was only two months sober, from meth, at the time of the rescue.  He is still sober today (2 years later) has a new child and a job.  This is some micro-social good stuff. They guy is hugely imperfect, but look what he did.

Kind of a parable for humanity.

 

Odd angle from a guy who just was celebrating the wonders of napalm. A perfect example of the true human condition.

[Lethaface]

21 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Ouch

Seems those inside the BTR-82A were better of compared to those hiding between it and the railway embankment. That explosion had nowhere to go so I guess that whole squad is now 'unfit' for further action.

Fortunately Russian 'meat' doesn't get to play/see a couple of turns of CMBS (or applied physics lessons), or they would have known their cover was worse than an open field should anything larger then small arms fire hit that BTR.

Edited September 2 by Lethaface

[acrashb]

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Odd angle from a guy who just was celebrating the wonders of napalm. A perfect example of the true human condition.

Less celebration and more sarcastic remark, doesn't always work in text.

Having said that, humans are dichotomous, like the rest of nature.  While the brutal side needs to be managed, the beautiful side is the better place to focus.

One should be aware of historical (and modern) massacres, injustices and so on (in order to learn from them and in so doing improving social technology).  One should be even more aware of and focussed on the beauty, ranging from Rachmaninoff to Renoir, Matisse, the Group of Seven; Tennyson, Tacitus and Seneca the Younger;  Notre-Dame de Paris, Fallingwater ... and right on to the beauty of that young lad rescuing a child he had no connection with other than shared humanity.

I hope that is somewhat explanatory of the angle.  And perhaps a bit inspiring.

[Lethaface]

16 hours ago, acrashb said:

I think it's accurate:

https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/swiss-report-suggests-500-years-neutrality-could-be-ditched-nato-co-operation

Having said that, it's a recommendation from a working group, and such things may or may not go anywhere.

 

I would be pleasantly surprised. Not that it would really change much outside Switzerland, but still. Think the chance is bigger they request membership of NATO vs EU.

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, acrashb said:

I hope that is somewhat explanatory of the angle.  And perhaps a bit inspiring

Inspiration would be telling me (and frankly all of us) something we don’t already know. Peace sign and “Born to Kill” - It’s full of light! - Floating garbage bags etc.

We get your angle…it is not subtle. 

[Lethaface]

13 hours ago, Vlad said:

Hello guys,

I've decided to finally register here on the forums. I came over here from BGG forums, where someone has put up a link to this monster of a thread and being the masochist I am, I started reading from the beginning. Currently around page 720 but oh boy, it's been a blast from the past- initial onslaught, Ukrainian tractors, sinking of Moskva, discoveries around Bucha, etc. Added to that plenty of additional insight from many of you guys made it an interesting experience, even with plenty of informations I haven't seen elsewhere - be it info directly from Ukraine, or people with military experience providing their POV. My only info about the wa...*ahem* "special military operation" was from one Czech Facebook page compiling the OSINT into daily reports.

 

Anyways, here's my contribution to this thread:

I'm from Slovakia, so neighboring Ukraine, in fact I live about 10 kms (~6miles?) from UA border. In a country, where russian intelligence did a damn good job of polarising the public. We have plenty of people either believing the Russian narrative, actively pushing it (including several members of our Parliament) or even being on Kremlin's payroll (IIRC some German journalists provided a list of people payed by a Russian oligarch, which included one former MoP from a splinter of our  "we're not fascists, honestly" party). Heck, one of our "alternative media" "writers" got eavesdropped while meeting a Russian GRU (or FSB or whichever branch does this) agent who promised him 500€ for each new person he recruits.

It helped to sow a kind of war weariness in our population, which I see on my wife. She went from buying non-perishable food and giving stuff like old baby clothes, or baby carriage for the Ukrainian refugees to "those Ukrainians get this and that for free" over the time. It didn't turn her pro-Russian, just changed her perception of the situation.

 

In fact it has helped our former PM Róbert Fico back to power who rode the wave of pro-Russian sentiment to build a government. He is pretty much what you get when you order a crossbreed of Viktor Orbán and Silvio Berlusconi from Wish. Yes, he has pro-Russian and "pro-peace" rhetoric, but that's only because his opponents are for helping Ukraine.  If it was the other way around, he'd be selling everything including his underpants to help Ukraine. Hell, even on a meeting with Ukrainian government about two months ago he admitted that his pro-peace and pro-Russian rhetoric are just "for domestic audinece" and he didn't block any EU effort, in fact he contributed to it.

Alright, I won't bother you about inner politics of a meaningless little country anymore, back to reading. Those ~3k pages of discussion won't read themselves.  

Welcome!  reading the first 720 pages is already quite an achievement. Sometimes there might be a bit of a lull of real developments and recurring discussions about nukes and other stuff which I'd feel free to skip after the first couple of iterations ;-).

Interesting to read about your POV in Slovakia. Let's hope Europe and USA don't fall for the nasty populists that are currently on the rise. We have one here in NL as the largest party, but he could only form a government if he accepted a 'reasonable' government (although that remains to be seen) with a neutral PM, so there will be no extreme stuff like kicking out all unwanted immigrants. Also support for Ukraine was mandatory condition. I guess it could have been worse, hopefully this will contain his voter support but I'm not fully optimistic to say the least.

However, the Nordstream stuff and similar things could become fuel for his fire. Today he tweeted whether our PM (on a visit in Ukraine, Zaporisha) was only there to bring money, or whether the rampant corruption was also a subject. 

In less economic prosperity, those at the bottom of the income pyramid feel inflation and rising costs the hardest; while they have the least capability to understand that sending a few Bn to Ukraine won't really make a difference in our economy. Our politicians have to come with a strong narrative how that all connects together and is actually better for the average Joe on the long run. 
It is possible, but first they have to start not trying to fight the populists with their own weapons.
I have, unfortunately, not seen many good politicians in Europe in our time; who can convene and present such a narrative.

Edited September 2 by Lethaface

[Probus]

5 hours ago, Hapless said:

What?

Not sure how effective that is, but wow.

This is terrifying!

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, Probus said:

This is terrifying!

I don't think any hobos ran into that treeline to save burning Russians. 

Not sure, but this one is right on that law of armed conflict line. Technically incendiary weapons cannot be delivered by air. The issue was napalm and indiscriminate use against civilians. No one ever factor this sort of thing in though. That is really precise and obviously not much risk to rosy cheeked civies out picking mushrooms.

I am surprised that the Russians haven't put mustard gas on one of these little bastards yet. 

[acrashb]

52 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We get your angle…it is not subtle. 

I'll take that as less than complimentary, which is a shame, as my goal in life is not to be or be seen as a dick.  I meant the positive things to be inspiring.  

[Sojourner]

17 hours ago, acrashb said:

I think it's accurate:

https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/swiss-report-suggests-500-years-neutrality-could-be-ditched-nato-co-operation

Having said that, it's a recommendation from a working group, and such things may or may not go anywhere.

 

When money talks neutrality walks. The Swiss defense industry is butt-hurt from missing out.

From the Morning Star article...

"Switzerland’s ban on supplying weaponry to countries at war lies behind a 27 per cent fall in arms sales last year"

[Probus]

11 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

"Switzerland’s ban on supplying weaponry to countries at war lies behind a 27 per cent fall in arms sales last year"

Again proves the saying "Go woke, go broke".  Although, loaning money to said countries is probably still profitable. 

This has probably already been discussed here but "Switzerland is considering, for the first time in 500 years, abandoning neutrality and joining NATO." -Politico (so consider the source).  Russia has them spooked.

[danfrodo]

48 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

When money talks neutrality walks. The Swiss defense industry is butt-hurt from missing out.

From the Morning Star article...

"Switzerland’s ban on supplying weaponry to countries at war lies behind a 27 per cent fall in arms sales last year"

Sojourner doesn't speak often, but when he does it's usually insightful.  Great post, thx for sharing.  I was thinking Swiss had suddenly decided they had a moral obligation to help out the suffering people of Ukraine against totalitarian violence.  But maybe it's just money....

31 minutes ago, Probus said:

Again proves the saying "Go woke, go broke".

WTF does that mean in this context?  I will give you benefit of the doubt that you are not that stupid and brainwashed and that I am just misunderstanding your meaning.  

[Probus]

No. You are correct. I'm that brainwashed and stupid.  Or as Socrates says,

But that's a discussion for another thread. 

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, Hapless said:

What?

Not sure how effective that is, but wow.

 

The view from the drone