How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Sgt Joch]

14 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

for example, a country on the brink of collapse should not be able to launch attacks across the border

Hmm…not the first time a country “rolls the dice” and launches an offensive for political/propaganda purposes. If it is just a “Raid”, it will be forgotten by the next news cycle.

 

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Iran is about to ship hundreds of short range ballistic missiles to Russia. I hope the West responds accordingly with options to Ukraine for fighting them off. 

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/iran-deliver-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-russia-soon-intel-sources-say-2024-08-09/

 

Do we think this is still happening.?Iran seems to be at a decision point about its own problems. I can't imagine they are shipping ballistic missiles to Russia if they are about to have their very own war. Or maybe they have decided to wait on that?

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Hmm…not the first time a country “rolls the dice” and launches an offensive for political/propaganda purposes. If it is just a “Raid”, it will be forgotten by the next news cycle.

 

Of course the counter example would be the British raid on Dieppe in 1942. Indeed if the primary purpose of the Ukrainian attack was to test new tech and tactics before committing to them on a larger scale? Then the current Ukrainian operation is going about a hundred time better than Dieppe did. Granted it is not an amphibious operation, but there are a lot of similarities.

[LongLeftFlank]

14 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Hmm…not the first time a country “rolls the dice” and launches an offensive for political/propaganda purposes. If it is just a “Raid”, it will be forgotten by the next news cycle.

 

Ha, I was (ironically) searching this jaunty Stalinist tub thumper up just as you posted!

In our native Russia, in our vast Russia let there be no enemy. Arise, ye Russian people, take arms in the glorious and mortal battle.

Arise, ye free people, for our sacred land!

No enemies shall march on Russia, they shall lead no regiments to Russia, they shall not see roads to Russia.

***

Of course, today Prokofiev would need to add a lyric about sending a whiny TikTok video statement to Tsar Putin, pleading for relief from the gross injustice and personal inconvience.

Edited August 9 by LongLeftFlank

[ArmouredTopHat]

30 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Hmm…not the first time a country “rolls the dice” and launches an offensive for political/propaganda purposes. If it is just a “Raid”, it will be forgotten by the next news cycle.

 

I really dont think we can call this a raid anymore when the AFU are digging in in several areas and took literally a few hundred square KM. Pretty sure they are not going anywhere just yet either. 

Edited August 9 by ArmouredTopHat

[ArmouredTopHat]

As I side note, I wonder if this growing effort from the AFU with FPV interception is having an effect on Russian ISR. I wonder if the long range recon drones can be attritional enough to the point where information gets increasingly unclear. Perhaps this had something of an effect on the recent offensive? 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1eo9q55/destruction_of_russian_uav_operators_supercam/

Destruction of russian UAV operators (Supercam S350) near the settlement Varvarovka, Lugansk region.

 

Excalibur is my guess, doesn't seem big enough for HIMARS.

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1eo7gj2/russian_supercam_reconnaissance_operator_films/

Russian Supercam reconnaissance operator, films the imediate aftermath after beings struck by an explosive that took out the drone and his comrades.

 

This may be footage of the same strike from the (very unhappy
) receiving end. It is only moderately graphic.

[Gpig]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It is only moderately graphic.

heh. Don't think you can get much more graphic than what happened to that crispy Z-kebob

[Sojourner]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Iran is about to ship hundreds of short range ballistic missiles to Russia. I hope the West responds accordingly with options to Ukraine for fighting them off. 

Ol' "sleepy Joe" is once again on top of it...

The U.S. is sending Ukraine an additional $125 million in weapons to assist in its military operations against Russia, including much-needed air defense capabilities, radars to detect and counter enemy artillery and anti-tank weapons, the White House announced Friday.

The weapons in this latest aid package will be drawn from existing U.S. stocks and will include Stinger missiles, 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) ammunition and vehicles.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-weapons-aid-us-5c3a116eef3136e7d2cae3ec2bf12f71

[Kinophile]

Incidentally, being able to easily strike  /isolate /potentially occupy an opponent's NPP in balance to the enemy's occupation of one of your own NPPs, well that might be a useful balance in future negotiations. 

Just saying. 

Also, we haven't seen/heard much of UKR artillery pushing into Kursk..yet.

 

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Gpig said:

heh. Don't think you can get much more graphic than what happened to that crispy Z-kebob

I am grading on a curve, I suppose. Thee reddit feed this is from has an approximate infinity of drone drops turning mobiks into ragged nuggets, with and without crisping. I only bring those up when they demonstrate something new. But the day in day out casualties they are inflicting on the Russians is staggering.

[FancyCat]

These would be useful in Kursk.

Quote

The US is supplying Ukraine with another 10,000 rounds of 155mm Remote Anti-Armor Mine System (RAAMS).

RAAMS rounds allow Ukrainian artillery systems to create minefields up to 17.5km away.

Source- https://media.defense.gov/2024/Aug/09/2003521353/-1/-1/1/UKRAINE-FACT-SHEET-9-AUGUST-2024.PDF

+10000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems.

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

I really dont think we can call this a raid anymore when the AFU are digging in in several areas and took literally a few hundred square KM. Pretty sure they are not going anywhere just yet either. 

Still too soon to say.  We don't know that Ukraine is digging in.  Making hard points to prolong the raid's viability is not the same thing as fortifying to stay, yet it will look exactly the same.  In other words, motivation is not easily assessed with the amount of information we have, which is nearly zero.

I will remind you about terminology:

To double check my memory I consulted the interwebs!  Here is what it told me:

Quote

raid

Term Source: JP 3-0 (Joint Operations) ?

1.) An operation to temporarily seize an area in order to secure information, confuse an adversary, capture personnel or equipment, or to destroy a capability culminating with a planned withdrawal.

https://www.militarydictionary.org/term/raid

Seems my memory is sound on this count!  And so far what Ukraine is doing fits this definition perfectly.

We are only a few days in and Russia's response has been pretty uncoordinated so far.  If this is a raid there is NO reason for Ukraine to pull back yet.  We'll know better in a few days? when Russia manages to concentrate enough firepower on the area to dish out some pain.  If Ukraine shows no sign of withdrawing at that point, then we can conclude this is not a raid.  Until then, assume it is or at least do not presume it isn't.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-9-2024

Russian authorities have passed several laws aimed at preventing Russians from using telecommunications services or anonymously operating prominent social media channels amid intensified efforts to coerce Russians away from Western social media platforms. 

 

They are still not saying much about the Kursk offensive, beyond collating Russian mil-blogger reports. That does not amount to anything we haven't already talked about today. They do detail extensive Russian efforts to exert ever more control over the Russian information space. They are trying to make it as hard as humanly possible to post anything anonymously, or communicate with people or websites outside of Russia. Among other things I expect this will make the report of Russian Mil Bloggers ever more unreliable. That is inconvenient when they are the only source to speak of about something.

[dan/california]

The Ukrainians seem to have bigger goals than a few square miles of Kursk oblast farmland. At the very least they seem to want the Russians to think that.

[dan/california]

This 45 miles/~80 kilometers more or less due south of Suzdha. it would form a really big pocket if the the Ukrainians tried to link up the two penetrations? Could they possibly have the forces to even attempt that? It would be the biggest intelligence coup since the Allies convinced Hitler they were landing at Calais.

[Vet 0369]

On 8/7/2024 at 9:34 PM, FancyCat said:

If Ukraine can actually hold Russian territory, they can do land swaps in any peace agreement.

Why bother? Two to ten years after a treaty Russia will just invade again.Russia cannot be trusted at all!

[Letter from Prague]

4 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Why bother? Two to ten years after a treaty Russia will just invade again.Russia cannot be trusted at all!

Well if it gets the Russians to f-off Ukraine right now, it is very worth it.

But I don't think Putin would agree to any of it.

[FancyCat]

21 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Ukrainians seem to have bigger goals than a few square miles of Kursk oblast farmland. At the very least they seem to want the Russians to think that.

small hamlet, lets see if Ukraine goes further in before saying its a actual raid on par with anything in Kursk. 

[omae2]

13 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Why bother? Two to ten years after a treaty Russia will just invade again.Russia cannot be trusted at all!

The territory of Ukraine after the peace treaty gonna be the buffer zone against russia. The more ground they have towards east the more ground the ruskies have to get next time.

Any way to know what kinda forces are available to the russians in Kursk and Belgorod? We and others said that 80% of the ground forces are tied in Ukraine. So whats left? Why dont the ruskies declare war? They could get another round of mobilization so whats the problem?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

10 hours ago, zinz said:

I would strongly disagree about the irrelevant part of front. To put it mildly Russia was counting on Ukraine not attacking into sovereign Russian territory. That was proven as a miscalculation now. 

Well Russia is too big to hold any relevant area of it in this war. So for Ukraine it would always only be about holding any Russian terrain. So it doesn't really matter that it's some woods in the middle of nowhere. 

First, it is irrelevant militarily, as holding of land in Kursk oblast objectively does not decrease the ability of RUS army to prosecute war against UKR or increase the ability of UKR army to fight against RUS in a significant way. Second, RUS historically has been perfectly able to abandon its non-crucial terrain and force the enemy to advance for 100s of kms to stretch its LOCs and thin out its forces. Third, RUS commanders themselves considered this part of the border irrelevant as witnessed by their allocating only economy-of-force units to screen it. 

Now, if in Putin’s Russia any part of terrain is incredibly important politically and has to be strongly defended this is new for Russia and fair play to the Ukrainians for discovering it. This is a significant weakness as it forces the RUS to try and be strong everywhere. 
 

 

 

[Peregrine]

Probably a raid according to unverified radio intercept from mobik Xan Solovsky (refused to provide his operating number).

"Everything is under control. Situation normal. We had a slight weapons malfunction but everything is perfectly alright now. We're fine here. We are all fine here thank you. How are you?"

Edited August 10 by Peregrine
Grammar

[Maciej Zwolinski]

40 minutes ago, omae2 said:

The territory of Ukraine after the peace treaty gonna be the buffer zone against russia. The more ground they have towards east the more ground the ruskies have to get next time

To be honest, from the perspective of the countries further West the entire territory of the Ukraine has been a buffer zone against Russia since the very moment Ukraine became independent. Some countries even further West just did not realise that buffer zone is necessary. 

[chuckdyke]

Computers are lots of fun. 

 

[Kraft]

Geolocation of an Iskander strike on a small forward element. 25km to the border. 

Does not seem unimportant enough to waste iskanders in an attempt to hit 4 guys in a forest. Also, state of aviation and artillery seems to be nonexistant otherwise this would've been a simple bomb or some shells.