How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Anything coming from, endorse by Sushko is entirely suspect. Caveat emptor.

I mostly agree with you, but at least one deputy/assistant defense minster is sitting in prison. I am not sure what is  more significant, that some other faction has moved against someone at that level, or that the guy in question didn't just fall out a window? Something is happening.

 

[billbindc]

19 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I mostly agree with you, but at least one deputy/assistant defense minster is sitting in prison. I am not sure what is  more significant, that some other faction has moved against someone at that level, or that the guy in question didn't just fall out a window? Something is happening.

 

Something, yes. Speculation by or endorsed by Shushko tends to be confected bull****.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

It just me or isn't it extremely disrespectful to Ukrainians that everything goes directly to the press from the Pentagon

[Holien]

15 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

just me or isn't it extremely disrespectful to Ukrainians that everything goes directly to the press from the Pentagon

The phrase "He who pays the piper" comes to mind...

BTW not everything goes directly to press from the Pentagon.

The drone attacks made by Ukraine don't..

[cesmonkey]

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

It just me or isn't it extremely disrespectful to Ukrainians that everything goes directly to the press from the Pentagon

I agree with you, unless it's a disinformation campaign designed to make the Russians pull more air defenses to defend this area so the that the Ukrainians can attack elsewhere.

Hopefully, those F-16s are ready to deploy real soon now.

[cesmonkey]

Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi's latest update:
https://t.me/osirskiy/670

Quote

The situation at the front worsened. Trying to seize the strategic initiative and break through the front line, the enemy concentrated the main efforts in several directions, creating a significant advantage in forces and means. Actively attacks along the entire front line, has tactical success in some areas. There is a dynamic change in the situation, individual positions change "from hand to hand" several times during the day, which gives rise to an ambiguous understanding of the situation.

What is actually happening at the front?

Heavy fighting continued across the front line this week. The situation was changing dynamically - in some areas the enemy had tactical success, and in others we managed to improve the tactical position of our troops.

In Luhansk region, the enemy is trying to take advantage of its advantage in air, missiles and the amount of artillery ammunition. The main task for himself is to reach the administrative border of the Luhansk region.

The main areas where the enemy's efforts are concentrated in the Kupyan direction are the villages of Stelmakhivka and Berestov. There, the enemy had partial success, but was stopped by the actions of our units. Also, continues the offensive on the village of Terny in the Lymansky direction, tries to push the Defense Forces of Ukraine beyond the Black Stallion River, without success.

In the Siversk direction, the enemy is advancing in the area of Bilogorivka and Rozdolivka, trying to break through and block Siversk in order to create conditions for the continuation of the offensive on Slovyansk. There are no successes, his progress in this direction is stopped.

In the Kramatorsk direction, Ivanovske and Chasiv Yar remain the hottest spots. Also, the enemy is trying to bring Klishchiivka under its control and go to the border along the "Siverskyi Donets-Donbas" canal.

The most difficult situation is in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, where fierce battles continue. The enemy deployed up to four brigades in these directions, is trying to develop an offensive west of Avdiyivka and Maryinka, making its way to Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo. Units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, preserving the lives and health of our defenders, moved to new frontiers west of Berdychi, Semenivka and Novomykhailivka. In general, the enemy achieved certain tactical successes in these directions, but could not gain operational advantages. Ukrainian troops inflict maximum losses on the enemy, both in terms of personnel and military equipment. In order to strengthen the defense in these directions, to replace the units that have suffered losses, the brigades that have regained combat capability are being moved.

The situation is still tense in the South, in the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. On the Novopavlivskyi direction, the enemy is trying to advance in the Staromayorsky area, on the Orihivskyi - in the Robotyny and Verbovoiy areas, on the Khersonskyi - they still hope to knock out our troops from Krynyk. There is no success in any of the directions. Moreover, in the direction of Kherson, our units managed to advance in the area of Veletenskyi and establish control over the island of Nestryga.

Also, the Defense Forces of Ukraine managed to improve their tactical position in the area of Synkivka (Kupian direction) and Serebryan Forestry (Lyman direction).

In the North of Ukraine, the enemy continues shelling border settlements in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions, conducts sabotage and reconnaissance activities. There are no signs of direct enemy preparation for offensive actions in the North of Ukraine. At the same time, we are monitoring the increase in the number and regrouping of the enemy's troops in the Kharkiv direction. In the most threatening directions, our troops have been reinforced by artillery and tank units.

We continue the rotation of military units in order to organize personnel rest and restore the combat capability of our military units.

Training of personnel in training centers continues, the main emphasis is placed on quality and skill in handling weapons.

Work on the fortification equipment of defensive lines and positions continues.

We are also working with partners to obtain weapons, weapons and military equipment as soon as possible.

Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!

 

[poesel]

4 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

It just me or isn't it extremely disrespectful to Ukrainians that everything goes directly to the press from the Pentagon

The Russians already knew that ATACMS could attack the bridge and since the bridge is officially still on Ukraine's territory they didn't need a green light from anyone. Ukraine could always attack its own territory with western weapons.

So explicitly stating the fact only does, as the_capt would say, enlarge the uncertainty space for Russia.

Btw, are those arches only decorative or are they a structural necessity for the bridge? I would imagine they are easier to hit than a pillar and easier to damage. Even something like napalm may weaken the strength of the steel enough.

[Haiduk]

Summary of UKR strikes on Russian objects for 27th of April:

27th of April - Russian military airfield Kushchovskaya, Krasnodar region was hit by the drone(s) storage with UMPK kits, converting dumb FABs to gliding bombs was destroyed

In the same day two refineries were hit in Krasnodar region too - Il'skiy refinery (6,6 mln tons year output) and the refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban' (3.9 mln tons). On both enetrprises fractional columns were hit. Both reportedly limited own work.

 

 

A fire on 719th artillery ammunition storage base near Tikhoretsk town, also Krasnodar region was marked by FIRMS on 27th of April, but unknown what caused it - drone attack or something else

Belgorod oblast - GUR in cooperation with 15th artillery recon brigade damaged antenna of Russian low-altitude 48Ya6-K1 "Podlyot" radar and diesel genarator for i, using Warmate 3.0 drones 

 

Edited April 28 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Two days before, Russia conducted missile strike on Ukrainain power and gas-sharing system in western Ukraine. As result four thermal power plants got direct hits

Targets of Russian strikes:

And the scheme of attack:

 

Strike statistic:

9 Kh-101 - 6 shot down

8 Kalibr - 6 shot down

2 Iskander-K - 1 shot down

2 S-300 - no interceptions

4 Kh-47 Kinzhal - no interceptions

9 Kh-59/69 - 8 shot down

Total: 34 launced, 21 intercepted. Excluding ballistic ones - 28 launched, 21 intercepted. 

 

[Haiduk]

About developing of warfare by spiral again %)

Since Russia unable to use A-50 AWACS close to our borders, it flooded our space by long-range recon drones Orlan, Zala, SuperCam, which with rotations are may to observe large squares of frontline and in the deep rear. Reportedly only for one day up to 200 UAVs can be spotted behind out lines. UKR side just hasn't enough radars, EW assets and SAMs, SHORADs etc to cover all frontline to prevent penetration of such number of drones in the rear. Except all of this we have large lack of anti-aircraft missiles of all types, including SHORADs and even MANPADs 

Yesterday likley as experimental act of desperation training Yak-52 was use to shoot down two Russian drones over Odesa oblast. Like in WWI times second crewman takes LMG in the cabine to fire at the drones. BTW this flight was successfull - two enemy drones were downed. And this is obviously more cheap method, than waste missiles. There is a one problem - risk of friendly fire, because small aircraft can be similar on radar to the drone

Videos of "dogfihgt" with Orlan-10

So, if some have operational P-51, Spitfires, Bf-109 , it will be useful

 

Edited April 28 by Haiduk

[chris talpas]

Perun discussing the new US aid package

 

[Holien]

39 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

So, if some have operational P-51, Spitfires, Bf-109 , it will be useful

Lol they are more expensive and rarer than Patriots!!!

You have more chance of getting Patriots too..

I can see some training aircraft being kitted up with machine guns - maybe gliders (perhaps too slow?)

[kimbosbread]

Like I said some pages ago, why not make an Orlan-10 or similar size, but kitted out as an interceptor? They aren’t too expensive, have good speed and range and a decent payload (5kg).

Since the cheapo AA missile equation hasn’t been solved, maybe a light gun with a flat shooting round (out to 200m) and low recoil? It would be trivial to adapt an AR-15 for this usage, though you’d basically be stuck with a 60rd drum. Or maybe strap a p90 under each wing? That would get you 50 rounds each. I have no idea how many shots it would take to down another drone though.

[Haiduk]

And to bad news. As was posted above, Syrskyi several hours ago made a statement, UKR troops withdrew west from Berdychi. This was logical step after Russians managed to expand own Ocheretyne salient and capture neighbour Novobakhmutivka village and part of Solovyove. So, elements of 47th brigade had a risk to be outflanked and even semi-encircled. 

Video of Russian progress by DeepState map

Concerning to Ocheretyne breakthrow, in Ukrainian media is starting a scandal about inconpetence of brigade commanders and HQ high-officers. Approaches to Ocheretyne were well fortified - personnel of 52nd separate rifle battlion for about six months did own work well with support of engineers. But higher command decided to rotate this unit and moved it to more cal Lyman direction (yes, in conditions of personnel lack there is usual "rest" - to be moved not to rear, but to the sector with less intensive warfare). On their place 115th mech.brigade had to be moved. This is the same brigade, which personnel in May-June 2022 in mass was abandoning positions near Severodonetsk, cuasing collapse of defense. Despite since that time two commanders were substituted, by words of brigade servicemen, there are no any changes - it still one of worst brigades in ZSU. 

No proper combat training. Brigade HQ and battalion HQs were indiffernt to own duties. Officers mostly absolutely indiffernt to soldiers. One guy told, he have seen own battalion commander only two times and their company commander treated them like sh...t and did nothing what he had to do according field manuals. Actually in his company only deputy commander of morale&psychological support tried to tow all duties, including duties of commander and at least a little to prepare own personnel to fight. 

It's no clear infirmation  what happened - one say brigade command didn't control situation and didn't know battlefield, so lost control. Other - that because of disrupted control and timing, brigade elements hadn't time to seize all positions at once, so forward units, which seized them were just smashed by Russian attack, remaining without support. By the rumors 4th company was almost completely eliminated with KIA and MIA. Other personnel (which has low training and motivation levels with such attitude in own brigade) jsut didn't seize positions or just fled from it. During next three days brigade command tried to stop Russians already inside Ocheretyne, but their incompetence and throwing people to thoughless actions led to new casualties and complete dismoral of personnel. 

47th brigade sent some fire teams on Bradleys, but they couldn't save situation. Higher command decided in the midst of battle to move 115th brigade to the rear and substitute them on 100th mech. brigade (was formed from 100th TD brigade, so it almost hasn't armored vehicles and in real is infantry brigade). Until this substitution took place, Russians, having 3-times advantage in manpower here, expanded own salient and captured most of Ocheretyne. Though 100th brigade fihgts tough and could for some time slow down Russian advance, which threatened so far to grow in operative breakthrow.

But story with 115th brigade command didn't finished. There is a rumor that by old post-Soviet tradition (because in Soiviet army for such fails comamnder can turned out under tribunal) higher command decided "to punish" brigade commander... with promotion in the duty. If this true, this bastard will sit in OTUV HQ and maybe develop plans of operations, without understanding of situation and just drawing arrows on the map, shouting on lower commanders "Take this fu...g treeplant immediately! I don't care your artillery hasn't shells! This is an order!"

And other obvious reason of steady Russian successful advance - WE HAVE A LACK OF THEESE FU...G SHELLS! Mass US and EU shell supplies probably will feed the whole front only through two weeks or a month. Reportedly our artillery still be limited in fire capabilities. So, during this weeks you can expect news about next UKR withdrawals. 

PS. Just for notice. 115th was enough well-equipped brigade - it has BMP-1 (or some Eastern Europe produced analogs) and some M113.

The squad of 115th in M113. Right machine-gunner has Czechoslovakian UV vz.59 LMG

Edited April 28 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Like I said some pages ago, why not make an Orlan-10 or similar size, but kitted out as an interceptor? They aren’t too expensive, have good speed and range and a decent payload (5kg).

Since the cheapo AA missile equation hasn’t been solved, maybe a light gun with a flat shooting round (out to 200m) and low recoil? It would be trivial to adapt an AR-15 for this usage, though you’d basically be stuck with a 60rd drum. Or maybe strap a p90 under each wing? That would get you 50 rounds each. I have no idea how many shots it would take to down another drone though.

How to make a guiding for a drone-interceptor? These drones fly too high to be spotted from the ground by unarmed eye of FPV-operator. Even the pilot of this Yak-52 was guided on the target by radio from aviation guiding and targeting post, receiving information from radar. Pilot in cabine has better orientation in the space, than FPV-operator in glasses.

[Haiduk]

Russian also activated on Kupiansk direction - sudden attack of their forces allowed to capture a part of Kyslivka village in 21 km SE from Kupiansk. And again planning fail of HQ. Territorial defense unit seized positions here, because this was relatively calm place, though during several weeks Russians were regrouping on Kupiansk and Lyman directions, oviously preparing for actvisation. 

17th and 34th motor.inf. battalions of 57th mot.inf brigade arrived in time as reinforcement, so Russians couldn't seize the village completely, but the fight is ongoing

On other hand, according to Russian TG UKR troops could retake some territory SE from Terny (Kreminna direction) - marked by yellow

Edited April 28 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

The Russians already knew that ATACMS could attack the bridge and since the bridge is officially still on Ukraine's territory they didn't need a green light from anyone. Ukraine could always attack its own territory with western weapons.

So explicitly stating the fact only does, as the_capt would say, enlarge the uncertainty space for Russia.

Btw, are those arches only decorative or are they a structural necessity for the bridge? I would imagine they are easier to hit than a pillar and easier to damage. Even something like napalm may weaken the strength of the steel enough.

Exactly this.  The US has already stated, very plainly, that Ukraine can use US weapons on its own soil.  Since the bridge is partly on Ukrainian soil and territorial waters, that's all good.  And the US has never said "don't attack the bridge" as far as I know.  All the US is doing with this announcement is stating something more plainly than it has before, which is a signal to Russia that there's no special restraints on Ukraine using ATACMS against the bridge.  This is a good thing.

I'd also bet $100 that Ukraine was involved in the decision to make this announcement.  Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine nudged the US into making it.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

How to make a guiding for a drone-interceptor? These drones fly too high to be spotted from the ground by unarmed eye of FPV-operator. Even the pilot of this Yak-52 was guided on the target by radio from aviation guiding and targeting post, receiving information from radar. Pilot in cabine has better orientation in the space, than FPV-operator in glasses.

Initial detection via SDR (1100 Mhz or whatever Orlan-10 uses), and for terminal guidance optical (visible or infrared). No reason an SDR and some decent antennas couldn’t be mounted on a small fixed wing drone, functioning like a mini-rivet-joint that can triangulate positions of various airborne drones.

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Initial detection via SDR (1100 Mhz or whatever Orlan-10 uses), and for terminal guidance optical (visible or infrared). No reason an SDR and some decent antennas couldn’t be mounted on a small fixed wing drone, functioning like a mini-rivet-joint that can triangulate positions of various airborne drones.

Sounds good, but private Mykola with PKM on second crewman seat is cheaper that R&D and producing of such system ))) 

Edited April 28 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Looks like Russian fighter aircraft could be burnt on Kushchovskaya airfield and one may be damaged during the strike Apr 27 along with UMPK kits storage. 

On low-res imnage for 9th of April on the place of scourged stand for 28th of April we can see a fighter. And on high-res shot for 19th of April we can see the jet on neighbour stand, so very likely aircraft could stand on this place on 27th of April during attack

 

 

[kimbosbread]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Sounds good, but private Mykola with PKM on second crewman seat is cheaper that R&D and producing of such system ))) 

There’s nothing earth shattering about using a RasberryPi and a few RTL-SDRs and antennas to identify and triangulate signals. This isn’t phased array radar! Obviously sticking it on a fixed wing drone is more work, but you could also just stick it on a mast from a jeep. I would consider this to be a senior-year engineering project for an undergraduate in EE.

I think there might be profit in designing an Orlan-10 simulator for testing against our systems, or more generally a radio emissions simulator that can mimic any sort of drone one desires. Our initial simulator is easy too… it’s another rasberryPi, or a Laptop, with a few different transmitters/receivers at the desired frequencies. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.embraer.com/global/en/news?slug=1207181-embraer-launches-the-a-29n-super-tucano-in-nato-configuration#:~:text=Developed as a highly versatile,surveillance and interception%2C and counterinsurgency.

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - April 12, 2023 – Embraer announced today, during LAAD Defence & Security 2023, the launch of the A-29 Super Tucano aircraft, light attack aircraft, armed reconnaissance, and advanced training, in the configuration of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), with an initial focus on meeting the needs of nations in Europe. The new version of the aircraft, the A-29N, will include equipment and features to fulfill NATO's operational requirements, such as a new datalink and single-pilot operation.

 

 

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Sounds good, but private Mykola with PKM on second crewman seat is cheaper that R&D and producing of such system ))) 

Wouldn't  Super Tucanos be perfect in the drone hunting role? I realize the IFF is a problem, but otherwise it seems like these thing would be perfect for hunting both Orlan/Zala drones, and Shaheeds.

[Haiduk]

Russian TG and blogger Rybar tell about night ATACAMS strike on AD site on Tarkhankut cape in Crimea. About results initially was claimed blurred "casualties managed to avoid"

But later information has appeared about three S-300 AND one S-400 launchers destroyed in this strike as well as 11 servicemen killed and 4 wounded, when they tried to intercept incoming missiles. Maybe sat images will appear soon. 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

 

Wouldn't  Super Tucanos be perfect in the drone hunting role? I realize the IFF is a problem, but otherwise it seems like these thing would be perfect for hunting both Orlan/Zala drones, and Shaheeds.

Would be. And some in our Air Forces lobbied them before a war, but... alas....

[OldSarge]

I haven't seen this posted. The U.S. has purchased 81 Soviet-era aircraft (including Mig-31, Mig-29, Mig-27, SU-24) from Kazakhstan. It is likely that these aircraft will find their way to Ukraine after enhancements or as spare parts.

https://news.yahoo.com/us-buys-81-soviet-era-145127753.html

Edited April 28 by OldSarge