How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[TheVulture]

Al-Jazeera are reporting that Russian ships in the Caspian sea are now launching cruise missiles at Ukraine. Is that another sign that they've basically run out and the only socks left are those already deployed on ships in another theatre?

[Haiduk]

Destroyed Russian artillery position likely NW from Kyiv. 3 Grads and at least one 2S3, trucks

 

 

[Haiduk]

Destroyed Russian column, with new "crossed out O" and "O" markings. Looks like Poltava oblast or east ern Kyiv direction

[Commanderski]

Reinforcements arriving in the Ukraine...

[Peregrine]

Every time I see a tractor in any situation I instantly hear Ride of Valkyries in my head.

[Haiduk]

Azov in Mariupol with many captured ammunition and destroyed Tigrs with "O" marking. Looks like Russians threw in Mariupol hasher reinforcements from Sumy-Poltava direction

 

[akd]

53 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

T-72B has 80 mm side hull in bow and turret area and 70 mm in engine area. T-72B3 has the same side hull thickness. 

Also, sight picture still shows HE selected (“OF”), although they do appear to slice through tree / railings without bursting, so maybe just some oddity of system.

Edited March 20, 2022 by akd

[Armorgunner]

12 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

Reinforcements arriving in the Ukraine...

Now we are talking towing  All these Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine - Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com) can now be supplied to the Ukrainian army, by the farmers 

 

Unfortunatly, I still not having any likes to give. So you get +1 here instead!

Edited March 20, 2022 by Armorgunner

[akd]

 

[kraze]

49 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Al-Jazeera are reporting that Russian ships in the Caspian sea are now launching cruise missiles at Ukraine. Is that another sign that they've basically run out and the only socks left are those already deployed on ships in another theatre?

It's the reason Iskanders and Kalibrs are now in 24/7 production mode.

Considering they had about 200 of each without absolutely baring their other borders - that's it and they aren't fast to build, as well as entirely dependent on western technology

[akd]

That’s a lot of wrecked and abandoned armor:

 

[The Steppenwulf]

48 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Al-Jazeera are reporting that Russian ships in the Caspian sea are now launching cruise missiles at Ukraine. Is that another sign that they've basically run out and the only socks left are those already deployed on ships in another theatre?

In which case they would be the Kalibr 3M-14 (long range versions) due to the sheer distances involving launches from the Caspian Sea. I think the Russians fired some during Syrian conflict from ships in Caspian.

I'd be surprised if they have too many of these, they are the best of the Kalibr range.

And yes, as I suspected a few days ago, this corroborates other evidence that they've run out in local theatre.

[Haiduk]

Mariupol again, but this time UKR marines watch trophies. Looks like this is the same place, where recently Russian SOF unit was destroyed with mortar strike. Probably UKR forces really returned control over some areas of the city. The soldier shows the journal of m/u 43734, but there is no info about such unit in open sources. 

And screendhot of recent shelling of this place

Edited March 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, akd said:

That’s a lot of wrecked and abandoned armor:

 

Looks like this is the same vehicles, which were destroyed two days ago between Izium and Kamyanka, Kharkiv oblast. That video was filmed at dawn, and this is probably either at the day or since 1-2 days

[Haiduk]

Sumy oblast, next small convoy, ambushed by 93rd mech.brigade

[akd]

Chechens trying to look useful in Mariupol:

 

[Haiduk]

Two Stugna-P launches (truck and some armor)

 

 

[akd]

Remember near miss of Russian/DPR tank firing from tailings mountain near Marinka shown in drone video?  Looks like same event filmed from another angle:

 

Edited March 20, 2022 by akd

[Haiduk]

Uncommon loss. The military ID of captain Konstatntin Druzhkov. Judging on the blood on the paper he was either KIA or WIA. He was radar asset engineer of m/u 40213 - this is 338th radiotechnical (means radar) regiment (Rostov-on-Don and Novocherkask) of 51th AD division of AeroSpace Foces

[Haiduk]

Ukrainian Furia UAV, shot down in Izium area, Kharkiv oblast. This type of UAV mostly uses by artillery units for targeting.

 

 

Edited March 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

So I think we are at the point that we can call it, I think the Russian strategic Offensive Phase of this war is pretty much at an end.  We went from Quick War, to Siege/Grinding War, to what is looking more like Balkan War as Russian forces appear to be 1) pulling back and consolidating and, 2) trying to assert control in the areas they do "control".  This does not mean we won't see offensive action at the tactical scale, in fact I suspect the Russians will burn assets and troops trying to take Mariupole and any other hub they can; however, the big red sweeps are likely over, at least for now.

So what happens next?  Or maybe what could happen next? 

- Strategic Pause.  The Russians almost look like they are trying to conduct a strategic pause, which is in effect and attempt to re-mobilize within political constraints/restraints.  Stories of troops being pulled in from the east and weird "contracts" are a possible sign that Russia is trying for a major re-org/re-boot before they would likely double down on Plan A.  Given how badly they have been chewed up this theory is not too far out there.  If Russia goes this way, it means they think they can sustain the war for months into the summer and make another run at Putin's Dream.  They will need to re-stock a lot of equipment and ammunition so there should be signals in strategic Russian production and pulling out of war stocks.  On the pers side we might see some sort of rumors of a Russian version of "stop-loss" as they start playing fast and loose with military contracts.  I don't think Putin has the backing to go full national mobilization (or he would have likely already done it), so this will be "as much as we can and still be able to call this a 'special operation' nonsense".

- Grab, Hold, Bargain.  More likely, but not exclusive of the Strategic Pause theory is that Russians are going to try to dig in and hold onto as much leverage as they can in order to shore up their position at the negotiating table.  This will likely see lots of medieval stuff to terrorize the UKR government into concessions.  We saw exactly the same ploys in the Bosnian War with Sarajevo (and Mariupole is starting to look worse than that).  The question will be how long this takes but it cedes the pressure back onto the UKR government in a typical extortionist/domestic abusers argument of "it is your own fault that I have to beat you". 

- Last Gasp.  Another option, and one I know favored by Steve, is that this is the beginning of the end for the Russian military in Ukraine.  What we are seeing is a lot of "scrambling for success" a the lower levels so that they can say "we did our part" while the higher levels are no doubt thinking about "alternative options".  The test as whether this is collapse or simply digging in will be how well the Russians can hold up to inevitable UA counter attacks.

So Whats?

    First off the Russian military has an enormous defensive problem, entirely of their own making.  By my rough measurements, by attacking along 4-5 separate operational axis of advance in an attempt to take the whole eastern part of the country, they now have a frontage of roughly 1400km+ to try and "defend".  That is roughly three times as long as the entire Western Front in WW1.  To make any areas they control even close to airtight, they are going to need hundreds of thousands of troops to do it.  Troops I am not sure they have, nor can equip, let alone conduct C2 for at this point.  If Russia is serious about Grab, Hold Bargain, they may have to simply wholesale abandon some axis and gains likely in the East in order to be able to create credible defensives and pressures.  We do know the UA has troops all along those 1300km frontage, they are either regular, hybrid, or resistance/territorial defence.  They know the ground intimately and are continuing to see a steady flow of weapons in from the west.  How the UA counter-offensive goes will be key to determining the actual situation of Russian forces.

    Second, without making the areas they defend "airtight" they will continue to be plagued by attacks along their LOCs.  The Russians might try to make ironclad support corridors but given the ranges of the UKR weapons systems this is a huge undertaking of interlinked strong points just to get the supplies to some sort of front.  This will make the logistics problem worse.  That, and defence still puts a lot of strain on logistical systems, but in different ways.  Ammunition, not gas becomes the central issue.  Field defence stores and landmines take a lot of truck space, so we should be seeing more of that, along with of course artillery and other ammunition.  That and now Russia needs a lot more manpower, which all need a lot more pers-based supplies such as food, water, clothing, sanitation (unless you want General Disease getting into the game) and medical.

    Third, C4ISR in the defensive is a bit of a nightmare.  Whereas in the offence you can prioritize your main efforts, in the defence you have to be able to see and coordinate fires everywhere at the same time.  Doing that along a 1300km frontage is...well, simply insane but hey here we are.  The UA, did a pretty good job of it but it was their ground, they had the HUMINT going their way, and very likely buckets of ISR feeds from the west.  The Russian architecture has not demonstrated they are set up for this.  Further, this is contested airspace so one cannot simply dig in and sit, they are going to have to keep high value assets moving, like artillery, all the time or it will get tagged and hit quickly.  This will mean that Russians will need to employ a dynamic manoeuvre defence, much like the UA did, and I am not seeing that within the Russian repertoire.

    The UA counter-offensive will be key.  I suspect they will stick with the game that has carried them this far and simply cut up Russian rear areas to isolate and then chop up slices piecemeal to keep making gains.  Their hybrid "sharp mass" has been extremely effective in the defence, we will see how it does in the offense but I give them good odds to be honest.  

   If the Russians can do a full Strategic re-set, a big ask, then we could see a Round 2 Offensive Phase of this thing but the odds of it success get worse everyday as the UA "beginners" are becoming veterans very widely.  Further they are likely refining C4ISR building on their successes and more and more lethal aid is pouring in from the west.  If the Russians cannot get back up and moving before that $800M from the US shows up, well they too deserve what happens next.   

   To be honest, if someone tasked me with shooting for a Russian Strategic re-set, I would tell them it is going to take years because whatever they came with in this "come as you are war" was a failure and we are talking about deep military reforms and training in order to re-build a force that could actually pull off what the aspiration of this thing.  In fact you might need to invent a military that does not exist on this planet.  In '03 the US had to advance roughly 500kms to Bagdad and they owned the sky and the sea, had set operational pre-conditions, massive C4ISR overmatch, and have some of the best military logistical systems on the planet.  It took the US 3 weeks to take Bagdad and they were fighting a eroded and beaten Iraqi military that had zero outside support.  The US did not try a 4-5 axis grab along a 1300km frontage because the military planners knew it was impossible with what they had, which was 2-3 times what the Russians brought to this fight (466K, over 500k with allies).  And, politics completely aside, Iraq '03 was not well thought of and still is not well thought of in professional military circles as it failed to secure the gains and led to a multi-year insurgency.  

   So as we proceed on this journey, I am wracking my brain to make a list of the "Dumbest Wars in History" but this one has to be on it and moving upwards rapidly.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Gpig said:

And why so much effort was generated to deny all those ports to the Allies. They were blown to bits, jammed up with scuttled ships, and secreted with long-delay-explosives (like Cherbourg, Naples, Antwerp etc.).

When I was a LOT younger I remember not understanding the whole port thing.  Sure, having fewer ports was not as good, but the Allies had some big ones.  So what was the big deal?  The big deal was volume, obviously.  After I got more real world experience with how the world worked I came to understand capacity limitations.

The Russians are reported to be trying to lay down a fuel pipeline from Belarus to the western side of Kiev.  All that is going to wind up doing is polluting one of the largest wetlands in Europe.  Because even if the Ukrainians don't sever it, it will have lots of breaks/leaks.  There's no way a pipeline like this can be rushed without consequences.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, kraze said:

Apparently a 2 day special operation is going so well - putin is preparing to use his underage putinjugend (yes, they have that) to replace casualties, as they are the most idealistic, strongwilled, other fascist BS blablabla

There is already one instance where military cadets were put into the front and slaughtered.  This is the sort of desperation that Nazi Germany had starting in 1944. 

Steve

[Erwin]

Given that Russia has a history of defensive strategies that disregard massive losses and deprivations, the most likely scenario is that (if Putin is not overthrown) Russia will now embark on a long campaign that it expects will outlast the west's attention span.

Of course this is not 1941 and perhaps the Russians have become "softer" than after 20 years of horror under Stalin.  But, it would be dangerous to assume the national characteristic of the Russians for enduring almost unbelievable suffering may not still exist.

The only way there will be the quick resolution that we in the west expect (like a Hollywood movie), is if Putin is replaced.  But, given Putin's expertise in survival and flourishing over the past decades, we can be confident that Putin has contingency plans to ensure he can survive.  So it will be surprising if there is a quick resolution now.  

In Vietnam the US govt stayed the course for over a decade despite relatively massive casualties and no real justification.  We should not assume that the Russians are not also prepared for that sort of costly exercise... perhaps better prepared. 

So long as the Russians can remain sitting on strategically important real estate, Ukraine cannot function as a state without massive western assistance.  How long will that continue if Covid makes a comeback, inflation keeps rising, corporate businesses are disrupted etc...  money is being lost.  Putin may well have calculated that pressure will mount on western govts to force Ukraine to a settlement.

The good thing that will come out of this is that the Russian equipment is again shown to be less than wonderful, and China is deterred for a few more years from attacking Taiwan.

 

[Erwin]

And here is the problem re bio-chem weapons being researched by the US in Ukraine.  According to WSJ today:

"On his first official visit abroad, the new senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, was taken to a facility in Ukraine where the U.S. helped scientists working with dangerous biological materials. But rather than produce biological weapons, U.S. officials in that ramshackle building were trying to prevent lethal pathogens from falling into the hands of terrorists.

“I removed a tray of glass vials containing Bacillus anthracis, which is the bacterium that causes the anthrax,” recalls Andrew Weber, the Pentagon official who was in charge of the U.S.-funded program that worked with the Ukrainian government. Mr. Weber said he showed the tray “to a very concerned-looking young senator.”

The above seems to have been inexcusable and now is being used by Russian and China to beat us over the head...

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Edited March 20, 2022 by Erwin