How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Teufel]

On the attack of Kursk. Appears train station was targeted.

Graphic from Chernihiv, speaking of the missiles these piles of human waste used to target children. Not my call to label all and any commander that target civilians war criminal that should be put on trial for genocide.

Attacks on innocent civilians is systematically committed with sole purpose to cause death and destruction. We don’t know yet what is happening in the occupied areas but wouldn’t exclude systematic killing of civilians.

We seen it before and only uncovered once aggressors were defeated. Forced enlistment in Russian army is no doubt prevalent, nobody can claim anything else.

 

[cesmonkey]

https://t.me/operativnoZSU/110862

Quote

42 F-16 aircraft will be provided to Ukraine after the training of our pilots and engineers - President Zelenskyi

 

Edited August 20, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Haiduk]

Russian TGs throw in masses new theme - Russian interests in Africa. Russian milbloggers discuss situation around possible intervetion to Niger and that allegedly British MI6 establishes network of agents to withstand increasing Russian influence in Africa and as if they can involve to own operations Ukrainian merceneries and agents, who under mask of PMC Wagner will conduct different provocations and acts of terror to blame in this Wagner and new pro-Russian authorities of African countries. 

One of typical posts of Russian milblogger Sladkov. 

No, well.. We have to liberate Africa. It's enough for it to sit under colonial "corc helmet". We fought for it independence in past century. We lost Cold War and Black Continent remained in bondage of West for decades. Firstly, a freedom it's a sacred. To live quietly, knowing that there are people nearby , who are opressed by other, who feel themselves as "superhumans" - this is not good. And secondly, this is good theme for us. While Americano-European colonizers try to lock our hands, Africa got a chance to put French on the bottle. And we not give up, and colonial regime will be overthrown. We need to finish our African business

Some UKR bloggers assume that after the war Ukraine can form some sort of PMC to chase and eliminate  Wagners in Africa for their crimes in Ukriane.

[Haiduk]

It's claimed Russian Tu-22M3 bomber in fire after yesterday attack on Soltsy-2 airfield in 680 km north from Ukriane.

 

[chuckdyke]

 Gezamenlijke verklaring van Denemarken en Nederland over donatie F16 aan OekraïneIt ( Joint statement of the Netherlands and Denmark) It is in English. Declaration regarding the donation of F16s Gezamenlijke verklaring van Denemarken en Nederland over donatie F16 aan Oekraïne | Diplomatieke verklaring | Rijksoverheid.nl

 

Edited August 20, 2023 by chuckdyke

[Haiduk]

15th operative bigade "Kara-Dag" of National Guard in action. They and two other National Guard brigades operate on Polohy direction, but looks like they have a task only to hold left flank of main direction of Robotyne-Verbove near Novopokrovka and Luhove and do not conduct decisive assaults. So, their work almost unseen, but despite this they also slowly move forward, repelling multiple atempts of Russian forces to break trough and come in or close rears - Bilohirya and Mala Tokmachka.

 

 

Edited August 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Elmar Bijlsma]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is about Russia's first unmanned mission to the Moon in something like 50 years.  The short of it is that like so many Russian things we've talked about here, something went very wrong What exactly isn't really know because, also typical of Russia, the information out there is vague at best.

The meme template that keeps on giving:

[Astrophel]

The failure of the moon mission might not get much attention in the west, but in russian circles it will be seen as a major defeat for Putin and his circle and a humiliation for russia.  Russians believe that the prowess in space is the leading indicator of their scientific advancement and ability to exceed the west.  Now it is revealed that Putin is not able to do what the soviets achieved in 1976.  This is as big a blow as losing another town in occupied Ukraine.  The Tsar is wearing no clothes.

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

The failure of the moon mission might not get much attention in the west, but in russian circles it will be seen as a major defeat for Putin and his circle and a humiliation for russia.  Russians believe that the prowess in space is the leading indicator of their scientific advancement and ability to exceed the west.  Now it is revealed that Putin is not able to do what the soviets achieved in 1976.  This is as big a blow as losing another town in occupied Ukraine.  The Tsar is wearing no clothes.

Exactly.  This is a time when Putin needs something good to distract people's attention from all the bad.  Instead, it is now focusing people's attention on the bad.

Here's a quote from a NYT article on the crash:

Quote

The main purpose of Luna-25 was to test technology for landing on the moon, and the loss of the lander during a less risky phase of the mission will add scrutiny to Russia’s space struggles.

...

When missions are lost during orbital engine firings, the cause often turns out to be shoddy manufacturing and inadequate testing. Those shortcomings were the basis for the failure of Russia’s last major robotic interplanetary probe, Phobos-Grunt, in 2011. Another factor could be embarrassing human error, like when NASA’s Mars Climate Orbiter burned up in the Martian atmosphere in 1999 because of a mix-up between metric and imperial units.

The mission’s failure may be a blow to President Vladimir V. Putin, who has used Russian achievements in space as part and parcel of his hold on power.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/20/science/russia-moon-space-crash.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20230820&instance_id=100470&nl=the-morning&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=142462&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6

The other thing to note is that this is it for space based bragging rights by Putin.  I don't think there's anything else coming up soon enough to be useful for him staying in power.  Which might not be such a bad thing because another crash would not be good!  To paraphrase a famous joke...

"We will keep crashing expensive probes into the moon until morale improves!"

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Splinty said:

Looks pretty good. A US unit would move out and space themselves the same way.

Thanks for the confirmation.  It is good to see improvement after watching so many videos of vehicles with bad spacing and obvious lack of good communication between vehicle commanders.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian TGs throw in masses new theme - Russian interests in Africa. Russian milbloggers discuss situation around possible intervetion to Niger and that allegedly British MI6 establishes network of agents to withstand increasing Russian influence in Africa and as if they can involve to own operations Ukrainian merceneries and agents, who under mask of PMC Wagner will conduct different provocations and acts of terror to blame in this Wagner and new pro-Russian authorities of African countries. 

One of typical posts of Russian milblogger Sladkov. 

No, well.. We have to liberate Africa. It's enough for it to sit under colonial "corc helmet". We fought for it independence in past century. We lost Cold War and Black Continent remained in bondage of West for decades. Firstly, a freedom it's a sacred. To live quietly, knowing that there are people nearby , who are opressed by other, who feel themselves as "superhumans" - this is not good. And secondly, this is good theme for us. While Americano-European colonizers try to lock our hands, Africa got a chance to put French on the bottle. And we not give up, and colonial regime will be overthrown. We need to finish our African business

Some UKR bloggers assume that after the war Ukraine can form some sort of PMC to chase and eliminate  Wagners in Africa for their crimes in Ukriane.

ISW's report from last night mentioned that Russia may be trying to replace Wagner in Africa with other PMCs that are directly under the MOD's control.  They seem to be trying to recruit Wagner guys away from Wagner as well.

Thanks also for the good laugh this morning!  The Russian propagandist showing such concern over the well being of Africa was quite funny.  Though Africans should not be laughing... if Russia says it is concerned about your safety and freedoms, you can bet they are actively working to take both away.

Steve

[Sojourner]

And especially this part...

"knowing that there are people nearby , who are opressed by other, who feel themselves as "superhumans" - this is not good."
The hypocrisy (and blindness) runs deep.

And in another strange twist, read an article yesterday but can't find it now, the headline was House Republican opposition to support for Ukraine - but in the article a Republican congressman was quoted as saying he could not support additional aid to Ukraine unless it INCLUDED ATACMS.

edit: Found it, it was Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), article was in Politico
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/house-republicans-are-standing-between-biden-and-his-war-to-save-ukraine/ar-AA1fu3Bv

Edited August 20, 2023 by Sojourner

[Battlefront.com]

NYT has an article today that is NOT doom and gloom, as many of their others have been:

Quote

For months last year, Ukraine talked up its counteroffensive in the southern Kherson region and then surprised the world, and many of its own troops, with a sudden breach of Russian lines in the northeastern region of Kharkiv.

The Kherson counteroffensive unfolded by destroying Russian supply routes, which eventually forced the Russians to retreat from territory west of the Dnipro.

The two successful campaigns have given many Ukrainian soldiers and officers on the front confidence in General Zaluzhny’s overarching plan, even when troops receive a mauling, as did the new brigades spearheading the counteroffensive.

 

“We were disappointed, we thought they would punch quickly through to the sea,” said a 30-year-old deputy battalion commander of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade, fighting on the eastern front. He gave only his call sign, Tysen, according to military protocol.

 

“Tactically, with cunning, with Western equipment, the Ukrainian armed forces are breaking through their defenses,” he said. “Success is just a question of time.”

Russian forces have mounted a fresh offensive in northeastern Ukraine toward the city of Kupiansk, but Ukraine units say they have managed to hold them at bay.

Tysen and other commanders said that the Russian forces they saw appeared to be in poorer shape than the Ukrainian ones.

“Compared to the beginning of the war, their equipment and personnel are in a very sorry state,” Tysen said.

 

On the southern front, soldiers and commanders said there were signs that Ukrainian artillery was wearing down Russian units facing them, largely thanks to American cluster munitions.

 

“We are using them quite effectively,” Colonel Lysiuk said. “They arrived mid-July. And we use them constantly.”

“We destroyed a lot of the enemy’s artillery in this time,” he said. “If before 20 enemy guns were working, now it’s two to four.” There are also signs, he said, that the Russians “cannot maintain constant combat readiness.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/20/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-commanders-fighters.html

The article is fairly lengthy and it isn't all sunshine and happiness.  There is, in fact, some criticism that Ukraine's concern about casualties led to costly delays in starting the counter-offensive and regrouping instead of pushing on.  Still, the overall presentation here is that the Ukrainian soldiers on the ground are confident that they are making progress and that Russia's ability to resist is observably declining.  They aren't losing faith and that is really what matters the most.  We are but spectators, and by "we" I mean everybody that isn't in the trenches.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

More good F-16 news from Denmark!  More F-16s officially pledged as donations to Ukraine, though no hard number at the moment:

Steve

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian TGs throw in masses new theme - Russian interests in Africa. Russian milbloggers discuss situation around possible intervetion to Niger and that allegedly British MI6 establishes network of agents to withstand increasing Russian influence in Africa and as if they can involve to own operations Ukrainian merceneries and agents, who under mask of PMC Wagner will conduct different provocations and acts of terror to blame in this Wagner and new pro-Russian authorities of African countries. 

One of typical posts of Russian milblogger Sladkov. 

No, well.. We have to liberate Africa. It's enough for it to sit under colonial "corc helmet". We fought for it independence in past century. We lost Cold War and Black Continent remained in bondage of West for decades. Firstly, a freedom it's a sacred. To live quietly, knowing that there are people nearby , who are opressed by other, who feel themselves as "superhumans" - this is not good. And secondly, this is good theme for us. While Americano-European colonizers try to lock our hands, Africa got a chance to put French on the bottle. And we not give up, and colonial regime will be overthrown. We need to finish our African business

Some UKR bloggers assume that after the war Ukraine can form some sort of PMC to chase and eliminate  Wagners in Africa for their crimes in Ukriane.

 

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW's report from last night mentioned that Russia may be trying to replace Wagner in Africa with other PMCs that are directly under the MOD's control.  They seem to be trying to recruit Wagner guys away from Wagner as well.

Thanks also for the good laugh this morning!  The Russian propagandist showing such concern over the well being of Africa was quite funny.  Though Africans should not be laughing... if Russia says it is concerned about your safety and freedoms, you can bet they are actively working to take both away.

Steve

Wagner and whatever Russia is trying to replace Wagner with need to be hunted throughout Africa the same way Al Quedea and ISIS are hunted. Just systematically eliminated.

[danfrodo]

4 hours ago, ZPB II said:

I can see with my mind's eye the headlines about Luna-25:

"Russian Ministry of Defence announces the testing of the world's first interplanetary kamikaze drone. Ministry officials confirmed early sunday that the advanced prototype had successfully hit a mock-up hospital on the surface of the Moon."

That is professional humor, thanks!  You should post more often 

37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is, in fact, some criticism that Ukraine's concern about casualties led to costly delays in starting the counter-offensive and regrouping instead of pushing on. 

And if UKR had pushed harder we more casualties but still been stuck it would have read "UKR's seeming lack of concern for casualties...."

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, poesel said:

I'm nitpicking here. When Germany entered NATO, East- and West-Germany were already two distinct states. So that is not a good comparison.

The very important point being made with this analogy is that Ukraine doesn't have to sign papers stating that it no longer has any claim over the territories currently occupied by Russia in order to be a part of NATO.  This has been a presumption by many when discussing NATO membership requirements.  Yet West Germany never formally (as far as I know) accepted the existence of the DDR nor did it ever give  assurances to NATO that it would never, ever, under any circumstances seek to reunite with territories lost to it through war.  So there is a precedent for Ukraine to say "we're not at war now and we understand NATO is a defensive pact and if we restart a war with Russia that is not classified as defensive".

So far Ukraine has shown no signs of wanting to pause the conflict.  The point remains, however, that if that should change then it is technically possible for them to join NATO without having to formally renounce all claims to Ukrainian territory under Russian occupation.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

4 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

https://t.me/operativnoZSU/110862

 

You're most welcome.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

And if UKR had pushed harder we more casualties but still been stuck it would have read "UKR's seeming lack of concern for casualties...."

That is my opinion as well.  Ukraine would have been fighting against Russia at its strongest, with pretty much everything still intact.  The attrition campaign has allowed Ukraine to take a significant chunk of Russian capabilities out of the battle without risking large casualties in the process.  Further, time has given Russia the opportunity to waste a large chunk of its manpower on pointless counter attacks and fighting in Luhansk.

I also don't think starting the campaign a few weeks earlier (which was as early as the weather would allow) would have made much of a difference.  Russia had already likely achieved 90% of its preparations by May and whatever the did in May likely had little impact on the overall flow of the operation.

Steve

[Hapless]

Obviously Zelensky is getting a bit tired of people asking him how much of Ukraine he's willing to give up:

 

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

 Gezamenlijke verklaring van Denemarken en Nederland over donatie F16 aan OekraïneIt ( Joint statement of the Netherlands and Denmark) It is in English. Declaration regarding the donation of F16s Gezamenlijke verklaring van Denemarken en Nederland over donatie F16 aan Oekraïne | Diplomatieke verklaring | Rijksoverheid.nl

 

Donation. So no compensation by the EU like some of our Eastern NATO brothers demand.

[Vanir Ausf B]

19 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This may not be a feasible idea due to resistance within NATO

The Vilnius summit showed there will need to be a dramatic shift in Western perspective for a wartime NATO entry to be seriously considered.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

though no hard number at the moment:

19. 

8 of them up to the end of this year, 8 during next year and rest 5 in 2025

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/08/20/7416354/

I wonder, either we really have at least 61 young pilots, graduates of 2023 %) 

Edited August 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

19

I wonder, either we really have at least 61 young pilots, graduates of 2023 %) 

https://t.me/operativnoZSU/110889

Quote

Denmark will hand over 19 F-16s after training, said the Danish Prime Minister at a briefing. https://t.me/operativnoZSU
The first group of 6 aircraft from Denmark will be in Ukraine by the New Year, 8 more fighters will be delivered in 2024, the remaining 5 will be delivered a year later - the Prime Minister of Denmark

 

[Haiduk]

Potentially memes source photo )