JM Stuff Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 (edited) ..information intoxation Tiktoknation... the Guepard will be in the next BS module... Edited June 25, 2023 by JM Stuff 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 17 minutes ago, FancyCat said: Interesting perspective. It's overall sound and it could be the way it happened. However, I strongly disagree with her assessment: Quote I don't think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov - something many observers expect today. Oh he most definitely was! He had Rostov, there was absolutely *no* need to march on Moscow if all he wanted to do was get Putin's attention and restore Wagner. Yet he made that extremely risky move and STILL could have gone back to Rostov. "We have communicated to the President that we do not wish to threaten his office, so we have unilaterally agreed to withdraw to Rostov and carry on discussions instead of fighting". Either Prig and his conspirators (within Wagner at a minimum) made a fundamental and absolutely moronic strategic error in their planning, then mysteriously decided they had no alternative other than quitting, or there's more to this than meets the eye. And as I keep saying... how is it possible that the US Intel agencies knew about this coup ahead of time but Putin apparently did not? Especially since the probable source for much of US Intel is coming straight out of the FSB (intercepts and HUMINT)? If the FSB knew and didn't do anything about it, why would they do that unless they thought they had something to gain by staying quiet? Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOS:96B2P Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Do we know where Putin is currently located. I read several pages back that he left Moscow on an airplane in the direction of St. Petersburg. But the plane was thought to have landed near some large estate he owns between Moscow and St. Petersburg. Has he returned to the center of power in Moscow? Has he been seen in public? If the coup was successful and Putin was forced to make concessions to the coup leaders what are the unannounced concessions? Would the behind the scenes coup leaders want to cut their losses in Ukraine and get out? Maybe go back to their rich lifestyle of banking, fancy homes in the west, traveling abroad and sending their kids to western schools? The Russian Federation status quo is not sustainable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 (edited) Edited June 25, 2023 by cesmonkey 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said: If the coup was successful and Putin was forced to make concessions to the coup leaders what are the unannounced concessions? Would the behind the scenes coup leaders want to cut their losses in Ukraine and get out? Maybe go back to their rich lifestyle of banking, fancy homes in the west, traveling abroad and sending their kids to western schools? In short: 1. Putin doesn't run for President next year and goes into retirement 2. A replacement candidate of the plotter's choosing will be groomed as Putin's replacement for the 2024 elections (which will, of course, be rigged as usual). 3. Putin cedes effective control of the war over to the plotters We should see signs of it fairly soon, especially #3, if this is what happened. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 22 minutes ago, FancyCat said: Interesting perspective. It's kind of plausible and internally coherent - except (in my mind) for the opening step. Pirogzhin wanted to force Putin to negotiate about Wagner's future ... by siezing Rostov and several other critical logistics lines, while Utkin took a column to Moscow? I can't see any world in which anyone might think that that's the course of action to get Putin to answer the phone and agree a happy outcome for Wagner as an organisation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Something seems to be on the move. Lets wait for others to confirm. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: It's overall sound and it could be the way it happened. However, I strongly disagree with her assessment: Oh he most definitely was! He had Rostov, there was absolutely *no* need to march on Moscow if all he wanted to do was get Putin's attention and restore Wagner. Yet he made that extremely risky move and STILL could have gone back to Rostov. "We have communicated to the President that we do not wish to threaten his office, so we have unilaterally agreed to withdraw to Rostov and carry on discussions instead of fighting". Either Prig and his conspirators (within Wagner at a minimum) made a fundamental and absolutely moronic strategic error in their planning, then mysteriously decided they had no alternative other than quitting, or there's more to this than meets the eye. And as I keep saying... how is it possible that the US Intel agencies knew about this coup ahead of time but Putin apparently did not? Especially since the probable source for much of US Intel is coming straight out of the FSB (intercepts and HUMINT)? If the FSB knew and didn't do anything about it, why would they do that unless they thought they had something to gain by staying quiet? Steve This is the obvious conclusion. Further, if Prigozhin is the undisciplined, irrational wild man...how did all of this stay secret, be resourced and work! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Couldn't help. But its fitting. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Morpheus_ Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 New video from Perun (sorry if somebody already posted): 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 hour ago, akd said: I do not think Galeev means literal rehearsal here. Exactly, more as a metaphor. A better one might be Breaking The Seal. Now everyone knows that the Kremlin is vulnerable, they're reminded that Power Comes From The Barrel Of A Gun - and all the guns are at the Front. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Dead man walking... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Instead of comparing Wagner's uprising to the 1917 revolution lets instead compare it to something a bit closer to home, the recent stalemate over US the debt limit. One side uses threats to throw the economy into default as a hostage bargaining chip. They make demands on issues unrelated to the debt limit. The two sides come to a mutual agreement and the debt limit hostage is released. It was never about the debt limit. Same applies to recent events in Russia. Threats to destroy Putin's regime was just used as leverage in negotiations over other matters. It was never really about overthrowing the government. That was just a convenient hostage in a blackmail scheme. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, MOS:96B2P said: Do we know where Putin is currently located. I read several pages back that he left Moscow on an airplane in the direction of St. Petersburg. But the plane was thought to have landed near some large estate he owns between Moscow and St. Petersburg. Has he returned to the center of power in Moscow? Has he been seen in public? AFAIK He had not been seen in public. He's most likely still in his bunker at one of his residences. He seldom leaves it because he is terrified of covid. 1 hour ago, MOS:96B2P said: If the coup was successful and Putin was forced to make concessions to the coup leaders what are the unannounced concessions? Would the behind the scenes coup leaders want to cut their losses in Ukraine and get out? Maybe go back to their rich lifestyle of banking, fancy homes in the west, traveling abroad and sending their kids to western schools? There are several rumors, but I have yet to come across anything reliable. The most common is the replacement of Shoigu and Gerasimov for Dumin and Surovikin. There is no information on long-term plan, but if we evaluate the theme of public messages Prig have sent for a few months, we can see a specific pattern: Old foolish and inept RU generals are to blame for the failure to win the war. Explain all dishonorable orders (such as retreat orders) as necessary to minimize damage done by generals. Stop assaulting, shift to strategic defense, begin retreating from indefensible land, defend what is possible, delay AFU. If it is not possible, withdraw totally from Ukraine. Sue for peace selling it to the RU public as a hard but necessary move (We need time to train soldiers because we are now sending them unprepared because to old, foolish, inept generals). It is unknown how they intend to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table, but given Wagnerite propensity for violence, it might be another terror campaign or even nuclear threats. Wait it out till the West (ahem, "old" Europeans, ahem) resume dealing with them because make peace not war, fair treatment and do not poke Nazi bear Edited June 25, 2023 by Grigb 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, MikeyD said: Instead of comparing Wagner's uprising to the 1917 revolution lets instead compare it to something a bit closer to home, the recent stalemate over US the debt limit. One side uses threats to throw the economy into default as a hostage bargaining chip. They make demands on issues unrelated to the debt limit. The two sides come to a mutual agreement and the debt limit hostage is released. It was never about the debt limit. Same applies to recent events in Russia. Threats to destroy Putin's regime was just used as leverage in negotiations over other matters. It was never really about overthrowing the government. That was just a convenient hostage in a blackmail scheme. That's what I think as well. Moscow march was leverage to force Putin to change something not to overthrow him specifically. Yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: This is an example of why I categorically reject any notion that Putin had anything to do with Wagner's moves. His own propagandists are forced to admit that both Putin and the Russia as a state are seen as weak by both friends and enemies around the world. In 24 hours Putin lost what little remained of his and his regime's credibility both at home and abroad. Poof, gone and no possibility of it coming back. Steve Tbf, haven’t we seen criticism of Putin to occur, a controlled mic? In reality, it’s a outlet that conceals the control of the media. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 56 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said: New video from Perun (sorry if somebody already posted): Thanks! A few days ago I finally had an opportunity to listen to his presentation on military procurement. I can't say that I learned anything new at the higher level (I have a good understanding of this subject), but I learned a lot from his lower level details of real and hypothetical examples. Of course, there is also the entertainment factor. He is one of those rare people who can be funny and be taken seriously at the same time. His quip about Millennials and home building was worthy of repeating to my wife, who got a good chuckle out of it. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 13 minutes ago, FancyCat said: Tbf, haven’t we seen criticism of Putin to occur, a controlled mic? In reality, it’s a outlet that conceals the control of the media. Not like this. The criticism rule in Russia is you can delicately aim criticism towards policy and/or its execution if you aim it at (usually nameless) mid to lower level officials. You are on dangerous grounds if you question the wisdom of Putin's decisions even if you don't mention him by name. That usually includes criticizing senior leadership not currently out of favor with Putin. You are looking for various forms of state sponsored persecution if you go after Putin himself. Calling him weak in the eyes of both friends and enemies abroad? That's just not done by anybody of importance, not to mention his own propaganda outlets. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 4 hours ago, billbindc said: I think quite the opposite. Putin now has a Kerensky problem. The more he mobilizes the more he arms groups that have a known propensity to overthrow the government. As someone smart told me...he's in a very Russian pickle. Oh. I was thinking that MoD "draft centres" would send tropps to the MoD, rather than to all the independent power groups. It's obvious that someone has to get more bodies into the fight, and Shoigu seems to have remained more loyal than the others. The alternative is just to let the entire Russian army die or surrender in Ukraine, then no one will have any soldiers to overthrow anyone... which seems like a... counterproductive approach. I thought the consensus was that Putin wasn't mobilising because it might piss off the populace, rather than because it might make potential usurpers more powerful. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 50 minutes ago, Kinophile said: Exactly, more as a metaphor. A better one might be Breaking The Seal. Now everyone knows that the Kremlin is vulnerable, they're reminded that Power Comes From The Barrel Of A Gun - and all the guns are at the Front. The Russian Liberation guys + apparent Russian partisans smoking incidents + Ukraine's various strikes (drones, truck bomb, etc.) already firmly established that Russia's ability to withstand military challenges on its territory are limited. Even if we excuse the improper use of the term "rehearsal", what Prig did was way beyond even what I would label "preamble". This was a full on challenge that was, probably, successful in some way we can't see yet. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 7 hours ago, buena said: If that's the case could not Ukraine hire them to fight against the Russians? Plenty of historical examples of that Wagner aren't really mercenaries, though. They're, or at least they were, a PMC that has a single dominant client: the Russian Government. You couldn't pay them to fight against Russians any more than you could pay Blackwater to fight against US troops. I have a feeling that Prig is, at heart, a True Believer in the sanctity and superiority of the Rodina, and even now you won't get him or his to fight against their countrymen for another employer. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 New footage from the dudes serving in the 3rd Assault Brigade. Intense stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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