How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BeondTheGrave]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's been brought up recently, but it is difficult to get good info on Ukrainian losses.  For sure they suffered some pretty big hits early on and are losing some each day.  As for combat effectiveness, we just have to look at the Russians' inability to do squat these days other than murder civilians.

What we do know is this weekend Zelensky reported 1300 service members have been killed since the fighting started.  As for tanks and equipment, this is the best out there:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

By this VERIFIED counting system, Russia has about 4 times as many vehicles taken out of service as Ukraine has.  The most staggering number is Russia has had more vehicles captured than Ukraine has lost by quite a wide margin.

Obviously this is not necessarily an even reflection of the battlefield as it could be that Ukraine simply has less pictures of their destroyed stuff as there is for Russian stuff.  So if you want, double the number of Ukrainian losses and Russia still doesn't look so great by comparison.

Steve

I posted earlier about my 1:1 theory. You said you didn't agree. Looking at the Oryx blog, TBH I think youre right. Can I recant? 

But its striking. Looking just now, Russia has more confirmed destroyed tanks, IFVs, & APCs than Ukraine has total losses in each same category. And thats without considering damaged, captured, abandoned, and breakdowns (which Oryx doesn't seem to capture well). Now if we assume as others have suggested that the UA has at least partially abandoned its mechanized approach for asymmetric ATGM attacks, manpower losses might be higher per vehicle knocked out than the more mechanized Russian army, but probably not that much higher, especially when we considered that Oryx is only talking about a slice of casualties. Since it doesn't go beyond kit losses it misses things like platoons and squads who get chewed up in dismounted combat. 

Very bleak situation. 

[melm]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I heard the tail end of some interview with a Russian Orthodox someone or other (might have been an academic).  The question was put to him about if this war is an affront to God, or something like that, and he said yes.  The interviewer then asked why the Russian Orthodox Church hasn't said ANYTHING about this war?  His answer was the usual "I don't know, you'll have to ask them".

The problem for the Russian Orthodox Church is that they are bought and paid for.  Putin lavished them with all kinds of graft, social stances (anti-gay in particular), and repression of competing religions.  In exchange they were to tell all Russians that in order to get into heaven you have to love Putin.

I'm being snarky, yes, but only by a tiny bit.  This was the deal and if we see the Patriarch of Moscow reverse course then it is a sign that Putin is done.  However, as of right now, the war in Ukraine is justified because they have Gay Pride Parades:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/moscow-patriarch-stokes-orthodox-tensions-war-remarks-83322338

For those of you who didn't notice this in 2014, there was a schism because of Russia's invasion.  Most Orthodox Ukrainians rejected being associated with Russian Orthodox Church, but some stuck with it.  The above article indicates the holdouts are changing their view.

Steve

There is more than bribing. In 2018, Constantinople Patriarch granted Ukranian Orthodox Church "independence" status, which is objected by Russian Orthodox Church(or Moscow Patriachate) because UKR Church is used to be supervised by the ROC(The see moved to Moscow in AD 1325). Then this leads to 2018 schism. I am not suprised to see ROC agrees with Putin's action because they may regard UKR Church as a separarist.

[John Kettler]

Since the soil looks to be anything but chernozem, I profoundly distrust the caption on this purported Orlan-10 video of an attack on a dug-in  UA 2S1 battery. On a side note, the image quality is so bad optometrists in Russia must be paying kickbacks to the Orlan-10 people for all their new customers who've developed bad eyes from straining to make out anything on the imagery!

 

Rob Lee

 

@RALee85

·

4h

 

Russian Orlan-10 UAV footage showing strikes on Ukrainian 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers. https://t.me/RVvoenkor/3720

 

<script async src="https://telegram.org/js/telegram-widget.js?16" data-telegram-post="RVvoenkor/3720" data-tme-mode data-width="100%"></script>

Steve,

Enjoyed your not so tongue in cheek remark about the dangers attendant in wholesale destruction of Russian command, lest capable juniors step in and, well, command!

Regards,

John Kettler
 

Edited March 15, 2022 by John Kettler

[c3k]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's been brought up recently, but it is difficult to get good info on Ukrainian losses.  For sure they suffered some pretty big hits early on and are losing some each day.  As for combat effectiveness, we just have to look at the Russians' inability to do squat these days other than murder civilians.

What we do know is this weekend Zelensky reported 1300 service members have been killed since the fighting started.  As for tanks and equipment, this is the best out there:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

By this VERIFIED counting system, Russia has about 4 times as many vehicles taken out of service as Ukraine has.  The most staggering number is Russia has had more vehicles captured than Ukraine has lost by quite a wide margin.

Obviously this is not necessarily an even reflection of the battlefield as it could be that Ukraine simply has less pictures of their destroyed stuff as there is for Russian stuff.  So if you want, double the number of Ukrainian losses and Russia still doesn't look so great by comparison.

Steve

Thanks.

Regarding Russian dead/killed, I think the ~4-5000 is far too low. 10k dead, 30k wounded is where I think this sits today.

Inertia will take this another two weeks before Russia collapses in combat. By then, I think 15-20k dead, 45-60k wounded. Unless the Russian forces just totally stop attacking and start mass surrendering/abandoning equipment and walking back to the border. 

This is nothing but a total debacle. The greatest strategic blunder since Teutoburger Wald?

[John Kettler]

Even AD success can be devastating. Believe there were multiple civilian casualties when a shotdown missile fell into the street near several cars and detonated. And who knows how many in the buildings and occupants were affected as well? Not sure what type the missile was, but that definitely doesn't look like a 450 kg warhead detonation. Good thing!

Illia Ponomarenko 

 

@IAPonomarenko

·

17h

 

An intercepted Russian missile falling down in Kyiv

 

 

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[Homo_Ferricus]

I'm starting to get the impression that the static nature of the front is not so much Russia struggling to make gains on a daily basis, but a consolidation period for them to regroup and rearm. Significant amount of evidence for that, including Ukranie MoD claiming less activity along the lines. Seems like Russian drone activity has picked up steeply in the last few days, including their use of drones to guide their indirect fires. Drones and indirect fires is what wins for Russia (and everyone really). We saw it in 2014/15, see it in Syria (Russians and Turks), in Karabakh (Azeris), etc. They're starting to fight like they're meant to. I imagine the new strategy is to limit operations in most areas, suffer the attrition while gathering what ammo and supplies they can, bring drones to the front to find targets, and shoot all that ammo at said targets before making another violent push, this time aided by drones, more cruise missile strikes and a solid turnout of the VKS. If only to push the Ukranians onto the backfoot, so talks can proceed on Russia's terms. Rather than achieve original operational objectives of the invasion.

I'll also add that it's unlikely the Russian Army will break in the field, mutiny or withdraw at large without orders. Chechnya was god-awful, morale was non-existent, the economy was in the dumps, the Chechens were absolutely brutalizing the Russian conscripts. And yet there was no mutiny, no mass surrenders any higher than platoon level or so. Obviously times have changed somewhat, and Ukraine is not Chechnya, but Russians will generally tolerate a LOT before flat out refusal and rebellion. Probably more than they should in many cases.

[dan/california]

Yeah, but then their are the five perfectly good T-80s abandoned in the mud, that is just not an indicator of a functiong army.

 

[dan/california]

Found the picture.

[John Kettler]

The lot of Russian ambassadors is not a happy one these days, take Lisbon, for example.



Regards,

John. Kettler

Edited March 15, 2022 by John Kettler

[Fenris]

I think russian conscripts would be a lot more open to surrendering to Ukrainians than they were to Chechens.

[Homo_Ferricus]

Just now, Fenris said:

I think russian conscripts would be a lot more open to surrendering to Ukrainians than they were to Chechens.

One can only hope. Really hoping Ukrainians are continuing to treat POWs well, and that word gets to the Russian formations. Just watched a fresh video from Zelensky inviting conscripts to give themselves up.

Still, it will be some inventive/courageous conscripts that manage to get to UA lines and surrender, on indivodual and small group levels. I don't think we'll see whole battalions dropping their weapons and walking to the Ukrainians.

[Battlefront.com]

40 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

I'm starting to get the impression that the static nature of the front is not so much Russia struggling to make gains on a daily basis, but a consolidation period for them to regroup and rearm.

This has been the mainstream interpretation of what's going on.  That includes the same experts that thought Russia would be in London by now, so I take their analysis with a pound of salt these days.  The general reporting from mainstream media is always behind and off the mark when it comes to military stuff, so I never put much stock in what they have to say.  I do listen though so I understand where the problems in their reporting are.

Let's say Russia is doing what is called an "operational pause" before continuing offensive activities again.  Why?  They planned for this war over a period of years and actively set up the pieces for it over the past 6 months.  And yet they didn't advance much at all in their first week and they advanced hardly any in their second.  This is not signs of an operational pause as a total collapse of forward momentum.  The two are different.

A historical example would be the Soviets after Bagration slowing down in Poland in the late Fall.  They were tired, supply lines stretched thin, and they badly needed refitting as the German defenses had picked up strength.  But what happened between Bagration and the pause was one of the largest and most successful offensives of all time.  Have the Russian forces in Ukraine "earned" the conditions for an operational pause?  No, they've gotten their arses handed to them and are trying to sort themselves out.

Now go back and compare this to what we see in Ukraine now.  Then add in everything else we've been talking about and it's very clear that the Russians have ceased major offensive activities because they can't conduct them.

40 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

I'll also add that it's unlikely the Russian Army will break in the field, mutiny or withdraw at large without orders. Chechnya was god-awful, morale was non-existent, the economy was in the dumps, the Chechens were absolutely brutalizing the Russian conscripts. And yet there was no mutiny, no mass surrenders any higher than platoon level or so. Obviously times have changed somewhat, and Ukraine is not Chechnya, but Russians will generally tolerate a LOT before flat out refusal and rebellion. Probably more than they should in many cases.

Don't be so sure.  Remember what happened in 1917?  That's more akin to the situation today than something like Chechnya.  A sudden, major shock to the system.  Russia has already suffered more casualties in this war in terms of gross numbers and as a % of total force deployed than the First Chechen War and things are not going well on the homefront.  And if they have any contact with the outside world, they are at least exposed to the possibility that they're in the wrong to fight this war.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

I don't think we'll see whole battalions dropping their weapons and walking to the Ukrainians.

If they are cut off, hungry, and running low of ammo... I most certainly do.  They surrendered in large numbers to Chechens under similar circumstances, even though they should have known their chances of surviving captivity were quite low.

Steve

[Homo_Ferricus]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Let's say Russia is doing what is called an "operational pause" before continuing offensive activities again.  Why?  They planned for this war over a period of years and actively set up the pieces for it over the past 6 months.  And yet they didn't advance much at all in their first week and they advanced hardly any in their second.  This is not signs of an operational pause as a total collapse of forward momentum.  The two are different.

Don't be so sure.  Remember what happened in 1917?  That's more akin to the situation today than something like Chechnya.  A sudden, major shock to the system.  Russia has already suffered more casualties in this war in terms of gross numbers and as a % of total force deployed than the First Chechen War and things are not going well on the homefront.  And if they have any contact with the outside world, they are at least exposed to the possibility that they're in the wrong to fight this war.

Steve

Sure. I didn't mean to suggest that it was a planned operational pause, or a desired one. Call it a loss of momentum--nonetheless this is the strategy that I'm seeing/inferring; stop attempting new breakthroughs at points of resistance until strength has been gathered and a real punch can be delivered. Sure they had 6 months to prepare, but no one was preparing for a fight. Hell no one even had their hearts in preparing for an actual incursion. Now the Russian Army is fighting for their lives--conscripts, officers, high command and all. And they are reacting accordingly.

As a matter of % of force we have not yet seen what the Russians endured in the 1st Chechen campaign. They had less than 100k deployed throughout the conflict and ended up with 5-7k deaths, and very many more wounded. By my estimate that's at least twice the % of force destroyed as currently in Ukraine. Chechnya being in living memory I think is a lot more applicable than 1917--which was a time of different sensibilities and different means, and a whole different scale of destruction. Granted, I'm sure Russian deaths will surpass those of any modern campaign if things go on as they have for another 2-4 weeks.

Also, I don't know how to split up quote boxes

[DavidFields]

1 hour ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

I'm starting to get the impression that the static nature of the front is not so much Russia struggling to make gains on a daily basis, but a consolidation period for them to regroup and rearm. Significant amount of evidence for that, including Ukranie MoD claiming less activity along the lines. Seems like Russian drone activity has picked up steeply in the last few days, including their use of drones to guide their indirect fires. Drones and indirect fires is what wins for Russia (and everyone really). We saw it in 2014/15, see it in Syria (Russians and Turks), in Karabakh (Azeris), etc. They're starting to fight like they're meant to. I imagine the new strategy is to limit operations in most areas, suffer the attrition while gathering what ammo and supplies they can, bring drones to the front to find targets, and shoot all that ammo at said targets before making another violent push, this time aided by drones, more cruise missile strikes and a solid turnout of the VKS. If only to push the Ukranians onto the backfoot, so talks can proceed on Russia's terms. Rather than achieve original operational objectives of the invasion.

I'll also add that it's unlikely the Russian Army will break in the field, mutiny or withdraw at large without orders. Chechnya was god-awful, morale was non-existent, the economy was in the dumps, the Chechens were absolutely brutalizing the Russian conscripts. And yet there was no mutiny, no mass surrenders any higher than platoon level or so. Obviously times have changed somewhat, and Ukraine is not Chechnya, but Russians will generally tolerate a LOT before flat out refusal and rebellion. Probably more than they should in many cases.

Gamer, not a military person.

I do not understand the analysis I quoted.

Is there anyone from ... the US, to Thailand, to UAE, to any military grog in Argentina (just to say, everyone)...who do not see that the Ukrainians are likely massing NE and NW of Kyiv, in sniper and AT units, to move west and east, respectively, to cut off all supply from the Russian units around the capital?  Probably already happening.  

On the other hand (as a more neutral remark), could the ditching of bridging equipment, and what appears to me a lot of air defense equipment, just be a local soldier decision (however monetarily costly according to those above) that they just don't need them--or not a priority.  Whether as a result of fuel or staffing issues, at the very lowest soldier decision, not sanctioned by those above.

"Rather than achieve original operational objectives of the invasion."  With all due respect, I think the objective was strategic: the integration of Ukraine into Russia.  I don't see drones accomplishing that.

 

"Ukraine is not Chechnya".  Decisively, I think.

Edited March 15, 2022 by Rankorian

[sburke]

Anonymous strikes again

20 terabytes: Anonymous Germany hijacks data from Rosneft Germany - Anonleaks

[kraze]

2 hours ago, melm said:

There is more than bribing. In 2018, Constantinople Patriarch granted Ukranian Orthodox Church "independence" status, which is objected by Russian Orthodox Church(or Moscow Patriachate) because UKR Church is used to be supervised by the ROC(The see moved to Moscow in AD 1325). Then this leads to 2018 schism. I am not suprised to see ROC agrees with Putin's action because they may regard UKR Church as a separarist.

The see didn't move to Moscow in 1325.

Kyiv was always christian. Especially when Lithuania and Rus eventually united.

In fact Muscovy was muslim well into 16th century, simply because late Golden Horde was muslim and they simply eliminated all the other "kaffir" religions on territories they controlled.

Furthermore current russian church has no roots to older church, which was eliminated in 1917.

Current russian church was created by the order of Stalin in 1943 and since then it's controlled by the KGB/FSB. Patriarch Kirill himself is a "former" KGB operative.

Even more - current russian church was never actually recognized by Constantinople, they simply bought their way in.

Don't trust russian history. Or at least notice obvious plotholes - like "christian holy see in a muslim Horde"

Edited March 15, 2022 by kraze

[kraze]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

As brave as the guy firing the NLAW  from 50 meters.

Edit she has been "detained"

1. There is no live TV in Russia

2. She is an editor of the 1st channel and is directly responsible for all the anti-ukrainian propaganda

3. This is a russian media operation to remove Ukraine from the front pages in the world press, as well as make Ukrainians think that only putin is at fault:

3a. As evidenced by her video where she goes on about how "russians and ukrainians are brothers" and "my father is ukrainian". It's so obvious it's cringe.

3b. The video was initially posted by all the pro-putin "controlled opposition" politicians like Sobchak and Khodorkovsky, who themselves were very pro-war for 8 years, but now got a new playbook.

And russians won - all the western press replaced Ukraine with a "good russian" and even here it worked into out Stockholm syndrome where this obvious propaganda worker is now considered a hero by some.

Don't fall for it.

Edited March 15, 2022 by kraze

[TheVulture]

Captured Russian artillery near Mykolaiv:

 

 

[melm]

59 minutes ago, kraze said:

The see didn't move to Moscow in 1325.

Kyiv was always christian. Especially when Lithuania and Rus eventually united.

In fact Muscovy was muslim well into 16th century, simply because late Golden Horde was muslim and they simply eliminated all the other "kaffir" religions on territories they controlled.

Furthermore current russian church has no roots to older church, which was eliminated in 1917.

Current russian church was created by the order of Stalin in 1943 and since then it's controlled by the KGB/FSB. Patriarch Kirill himself is a "former" KGB operative.

Even more - current russian church was never actually recognized by Constantinople, they simply bought their way in.

Don't trust russian history. Or at least notice obvious plotholes - like "christian holy see in a muslim Horde"

http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/display.asp?linkpath=pages\P\E\PetroofKyivMetropolitan.htm

Here is a piece of entry regarding the key figure of the topic.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[kraze]

9 hours ago, The Steppenwulf said:

I read the article earlier that Steve posted, pretty shocking stuff: 

"The Kremlin has only worsened investor fears by greenlighting a rule that allows Russian firms to steal intellectual property from companies that are home to “unfriendly” nations such as the U.S. and its allies. Under the Kremlin’s plans, Russian oligarchs could take over assets such as Coca-Cola’s bottling factories or Ford’s commercial van manufacturing plant and attempt to continue to manufacture and sell those products under the existing brand." 

It struck me that this sort of thinking leads Russia into the cold, dark economic abyss that is North Korea - a self-imposed asylum!

We know how well that worked back in USSR when russians were stealing european car designs - but because russians literally murdered all the talent at the time - for every Fiat 124 the best they could do was always Zhiguli.

It didn't improve in post-USSR Russia either. A complete and total corruption made sure that talent was replaced with friends or relatives of whoever owned the business.

So every Ford they will release will be an obvious low quality knock off. Not to mention nobody in Russia is capable of designing a new car

[Taranis]

A little off topic :
Today: Thursday, March 15, 1917: Abdication of Nicolas II; The Duma forms a provisional government headed by Kerensk

Strange anniversary 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Taranis

[kraze]

Seems like another major general bites the dust. In Mariupol no less.

The second link is more graphic and shows the rank

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/15/7331504/

https://censor.net/ua/photo_news/3325251/azov_znyschyv_generalmayiora_okupatsiyinyh_viyisk_foto

 

Azov promises to reveal his name later

 

And some more bonus photos from the counter-attack and "let's all bunch up behind a building" russian tactics

https://censor.net/ua/photo_news/3325276/polk_azov_rozbyv_pidrozdil_22yi_brygady_spetsialnogo_pryznachennya_zs_rf_oos_foto

Edited March 15, 2022 by kraze

[Baneman]

6 hours ago, c3k said:

...This is nothing but a total debacle. The greatest strategic blunder since Teutoburger Wald?

To be fair, the Romans had a militarily incompetent leader and were caught on the march.

I think the Battle of the Horns of Hattin better reflects the level of arrogant incompetence by the Russian HQ ... and might have similar after effects to the entire power structure. ( we can hope ).