How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Huba said:

Here's a bit more sober/ conservative take from DefMon

And even that assessment seems to show that something major shifted today, as the frontline hasn't been moved much in the last few weeks.

The panic amongst the RU Nats is probably related to the real condition of the Kherson forces (i.e. in decline), but significantly colored by what has been going on in Lyman and around it.  This is the sort of strategic panic I've been looking for... it's a sign that a wider collapse is in the making.

Kherson is going to fall.  Looks like Ukraine will continue taking territory in Luhansk.  What is going to happen to Russian morale when those two losses sink in?  We already have open talk of replacing Putin, so will the people thinking of unseating Putin wait until another disaster (probably Jan/Feb) before they take action, or might they act before then?

One interesting thing from above quoted RU Nat is the confidence that the Russian military forces won't do anything to support Putin if a coup develops.  That's maybe kinda moot at this point as pretty much all of the ground forces are in Ukraine and not surrounding Moscow, but it will likely count for something.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

One interesting thing from above quoted RU Nat is the confidence that the Russian military forces won't do anything to support Putin if a coup develops. 

He just decided to arm 300000 unfit civilians. Potential fragging is on the cards. 

[FancyCat]

I'm not sure these military bloggers can be relied upon to transmit the feelings of the Russian high command. Assuming there isn't a possibility of a mid-level or low-level military coup (and Im pretty confident that isn't gonna happen anytime soon) I don't think they have enough info to be able to say with confidence that General so and so of the Russian Army will let Putin fall, or support whatever faction is about to overthrow him either. 

Also, Putin relies on entities other than the military for domestic security and his own personal security anyway. The reports that Putin got rid of the FSB leaders in a clearing house to reform them have not panned out, unless they hold the gun to Putin's head and not the other way around, most of his power groups are still in power and seem loyal to him still. 

[Sojourner]

35 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Potential fragging is on the cards. 

Wonder if that will be true for CMBS2 as well - modification to Tac AI behavior if casualty rate is too high.

Along with

• modified Acquire command to include alcohol, porcelain objects, and appliances (think about the Mission Objective possibilities);
• new Skill settings for TD, Separs, Conscripts, and Russian conscripts (these conscripts go to -11)

Not to mention equipment and vehicles too numerous to list.

[akd]

The Northern Fleet's 80th Arctic MRB ended up on the Kherson Front at some point, apparently as a reserve force:

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by akd

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Politically the fall of Kherson would indeed make a very pointed reply to the annexation. It would also dramatically undermine Putin, but whether that is good or bad is up for debate, as it has been here.

Sure, taking the pocket would be a good thing, all in all. But is it the best thing?

The Ukrainians don't want the Russians to be able to pull the units out Kherson in merely bad order, and use them for cadre for a second wave of mobiks. I don't know the relative wight of this factor, but I am guessing that it wasn't zero. 

[chuckdyke]

9 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

to include alcohol,

Bravery will increase leadership value will decline. 

[Fenris]

Hope the crew is ok.

 

[BlackMoria]

Barrel blew off above the recoil system external to the vehicle.  The round most likely cleared the barrel at the time of the malfunction so no 155 detonation so the barrel broke due to propellant prressure.   No external damage to the turret.  The crew would be fine... the big arse breach block on this gun would protect them from such overpressures.  All in all, the damage seems confined to the barrel.  SPG is rotated to rear for 2nd or 3rd line maintenance/repair.  All should be good. - crew survives with little or no injuries and howitzer just needs a new barrel and a detailed inspection for recoil system.  The 155 round on the other hand, could land anywhere from just outside the SPG out to charge bag range.  Hopefully, it didn't hit any friendlies or civilians.

Edited October 3, 2022 by BlackMoria

[Vet 0369]

20 hours ago, acrashb said:

That is the most important part; once momentum builds in the right direction the change of opinion is no longer linear in time and will explode exponentially. The loss of Lyman counters / neutralizes the Putin / Russian narrative they attempted through annexation and will accelerate the reduction in war support.  Near-term future losses - Kherson pocket? - will, I think, seal the deal.

Then it's rebellion in multiple layers of Russian society.

Ritter: multi-time sex offender and now sock puppet / asset for Russia.

"These leaders [Putin's position where he is an authoritarian but not absolute leader], Goemans found, would be tempted to “gamble for resurrection,” to continue prosecuting the war, often at greater and greater intensity, because anything short of victory could mean their own exile or death."
 

A comfortable exile in China is the best possible outcome now, as so many other doors have been closed.  Based on Putin's ego and Goemans' research, I don't think he'll take it.

So things will grind on.

Putin won’t got go to Beijing, he too afraid of getting CIVID 19.

[JonS]

Could be:

1) gun/barrel failure

2) ammo failure

3) fuze failure

 

If it was gun/barrel, then the rest of the battery and battalion urgently need to be checked since they've probably all fired about the same number of rounds. It could mean a battalion out of action for a week or so while they're checked and returned.

If it was ammo or fuze, that's a whole different level of hurt, since the lot and batch will have to be found and checked, and they could be anywhere. That could mean most of the NATO calibre guns out of action for a while.

A small group of staff officers are probably having the worst day of their lives right now, trying to rapidly identify cause, and issuing appropriate corrective actions.

[akd]

Wait, what?

 

[BlackMoria]

Wow.   So the veterans or experience crews fought the last seven months in various versions of the T72 or T80 but the no nothing new press ganged conscript;  trained in just a day to a week... tops gets the T-90.   Freaking incredible if true.  Good news...  The UA may be a company plus of these as nearly gifts from Russia, once the conscripts bail out at the first shots at them.

[keas66]

I have seen some comments  which discuss whether this is simply another propaganda exercise - Yes our new recruits are training with the best equipment etc , etc . But in reality the T90's stay on the Training field and the recruits get shipped off to the front to field whatever is left on the front

[Artkin]

Sounds like a ploy to get men to sign up had they needed the forces. Here we have shiny new toys for you to use. I dont think this would be the first time I've heard of something like this. Hitler's SS getting panzer priority I think?

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, Artkin said:

Excellent video depicting airburst, it seems they had the ranging off in the beginning. That would be neat to see in combat mission. 

Man, in CMBS that UKR would be a goner. Ive found going H2H with RUS IFVs is a fools game, and a free kill to Ivan. Guess not here, lucky for them.

Incidentally, @Haiduk,  @Grigb or @akd is there much use of captured BTR-82As by the UA?  Surely they must have enough for a company at this point? Oryx has about 100 as captured. Is there any UA opinions on it?  I've always felt that just a bit better thermals and optics would make it a serious danger on the field...

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

Alexander Kots, famed Kremlin propagandist and shill, trying to spin Hemingway style on the retreat from Lyman:

https://www.kp.ru/daily/27452.5/4656146/

[Artkin]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

Man, in CMBS that UKR would be a goner. Ive found going H2H with RUS UFVs is a fools game, and a free kill to Ivan. Guess not here, lucky for them.

Incidentally, @Haiduk,  @Grigb or @akd is there much use of captured BTR-82As by the UA?  Surely they must have enough for a company at this point? Oryx has about 100 as captured. Is there any UA opinions on it?  I've always felt that just a bit better thermals and optics would make it a serious danger on the field...

 

Yep one of my opponents is feeling the pain from the superior thermals on .... T-72b3. Even the cheap Russian kit has optics that blow the Ukrainians' out of the water. 

[Vet 0369]

12 hours ago, Holien said:

Interesting question and what surprised me was even on the hostile borders within Ukraine folk are moving across them. The reporting on the Russian attack on Civvies just inside the current Ukraine front line were waiting to cross back to the Russian side to take aid across.

So even in the quiet war zones folks are passing back and forth?

Not surprising at all. During the U.S. /England War of 1812, when the U.S. residents of Calis (sp?), Maine, U.S.A. didn’t have gun powder to make fireworks for celebrating the U.S. Independence Day celebrations, so the residents of St. Johnsbury, New Brunswick, Canada gave them some of their stock. Obviously the residents of both didn’t let a little thing like a war between their nations screw up their relationship.

[akd]

11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Man, in CMBS that UKR would be a goner. Ive found going H2H with RUS UFVs is a fools game, and a free kill to Ivan. Guess not here, lucky for them.

Incidentally, @Haiduk,  @Grigb or @akd is there much use of captured BTR-82As by the UA?  Surely they must have enough for a company at this point? Oryx has about 100 as captured. Is there any UA opinions on it?  I've always felt that just a bit better thermals and optics would make it a serious danger on the field...

 

Yes, they are used widely.

[Kinophile]

Morale is high. 

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Putin won’t got go to Beijing, he too afraid of getting CIVID 19.

I doubt China would want to have the diplomatic headache, constant distraction and sheer embarrassment of having to shield a notorious war leader wanted for high profile war crimes trial. Bad for the image, you know.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

If it was gun/barrel, then the rest of the battery and battalion urgently need to be checked since they've probably all fired about the same number of rounds. It could mean a battalion out of action for a week or so while they're checked and returned.

If it was ammo or fuze, that's a whole different level of hurt, since the lot and batch will have to be found and checked, and they could be anywhere. That could mean most of the NATO calibre guns out of action for a while.

A small group of staff officers are probably having the worst day of their lives right now, trying to rapidly identify cause, and issuing appropriate corrective actions.

After all of these months I finally found an upside to the unprofessionalism of the Russian military.  And that is, nobody cares about this and so nobody is having their worst day of their life.  Well, aside from probably getting killed because of previously mentioned unprofessionalism.  So I guess I'm back to not finding anything good to say about the Russian military.

Can't say I didn't try!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

I'm not sure these military bloggers can be relied upon to transmit the feelings of the Russian high command. Assuming there isn't a possibility of a mid-level or low-level military coup (and Im pretty confident that isn't gonna happen anytime soon) I don't think they have enough info to be able to say with confidence that General so and so of the Russian Army will let Putin fall, or support whatever faction is about to overthrow him either. 

Also, Putin relies on entities other than the military for domestic security and his own personal security anyway. The reports that Putin got rid of the FSB leaders in a clearing house to reform them have not panned out, unless they hold the gun to Putin's head and not the other way around, most of his power groups are still in power and seem loyal to him still. 

I think you misunderstood the point of that RU Nat posting.  I don't think they have any sense of what's going on at the senior level, other than sheer incompetence.  The point was that the rank and file won't be shedding a tear if Putin is axed.  And since a bunch of Generals and Colonels aren't going to be able to suppress a coup on their own.  So if Putin was counting on the Army to either suppress the population or to defend him against coup plotters, he's probably out of luck there.

As for the larger discussion about how Putin might be deposed by whom, that's been discussed many times already.  Not something I want to get back into again

Steve

[chuckdyke]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So I guess I'm back to not finding anything good to say about the Russian military.

How are we playing Russian Army in the Black Sea expansion update?