Grigb Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Checking through RU Nats posts saw a post of Khodakovsky [LDNR Vostok Bat commander]. We saw they send old men but now we see they send boys as well. Quote ...We got to the place, climbed into their lair, and a group of boys [not kids, but young adults] poured out to meet us - four people. I was about to let go of something ironic about their age from the height of my fiftyths, but I got a hard thrashing from a marine with three blond hairs sticking out of his chin as a symbol of the end of puberty - I even had to hug the guy as a sign of reconciliation) ... But all the time while the conversation was going on, I couldn't get rid of I feel like I'm not talking to soldiers in sergeant's shoulder straps, but with boys who have decided to play a complex war game.... And [recently] a volunteer came to me, to talk with whom I found time only yesterday. He is a student of some technical university from the Moscow region, a sophomore who has moved to the third year. He came to us....on vacation - by September he will go to study. All the senior bosses above him, of course, were instructed not to let him go beyond training sessions and outfits, but it is impossible to look at him without emotion: such serious, meaningful eyes, and an almost childish face that is the facade element of a head planted on a teenage body that is still forming. So, all is not lost - we have healthy heirs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 (edited) Even though beam bridges (that Antonovsky Bridge is) are not as obvious as other types like cantilever Bridges there are very certain ways the forces applied to the bridge are meant to be directed. This means slapping a engineering bridge on top of the hole doesn't solve much. relevant vid: https://youtu.be/l-_TKh-qZmQ If you cut this bride in two from the middle you are going to have to replace the entire span. (that is 50m in this case) But you have to damage the supporting structures or "beams" (already seen in some photos). Hitting the supports would be the most effective, not sure if that is possible with HIMARS. (small and under the bridge) Engineering bridge would have to be put over like in the photo under. Ukrainians could just hit the engineering bride or the spans on both sides of it. I am not even sure if there is bridging equipment that can do this. These types of bridges are more forgiving than many other types. The spans are somewhat separate from each other. Lets remember the saying:“Any idiot can build a bridge that stands, but it takes an engineer to build a bridge that barely stands.” meaning there is probably not very much extra spec on that bridge to take missile strikes... Edited July 27, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Lets remember the saying:“Any idiot can build a bridge that stands, but it takes an engineer to build a bridge that barely stands.” meaning there is probably not very much extra spec on that bride to take missile strikes... If I remember properly there should be around 13% of safety margin (not more). Unless for bridges they mandated better safety margin. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Grigb said: If I remember properly there should be around 13% of safety margin (not more). Unless for bridges they mandated better safety margin. and lets also remember what causes bridges to be closed and almost rebuild. One crack in a right spot is enough. literal multiple missile strikes will do as well... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hcrof Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 38 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Even though beam bridges (that Antonovsky Bridge is) are not as obvious as other types like cantilever Bridges there are very certain ways the forces applied to the bridge are meant to be directed. This means slapping a engineering bridge on top of the hole doesn't solve much. relevant vid: https://youtu.be/l-_TKh-qZmQ If you cut this bride in two from the middle you are going to have to replace the entire span. (that is 50m in this case) But you have to damage the supporting structures or "beams" (already seen in some photos). Hitting the supports would be the most effective, not sure if that is possible with HIMARS. (small and under the bridge) Engineering bridge would have to be put over like in the photo under. Ukrainians could just hit the engineering bride or the spans on both sides of it. I am not even sure if there is bridging equipment that can do this. These types of bridges are more forgiving than many other types. The spans are somewhat separate from each other. Lets remember the saying:“Any idiot can build a bridge that stands, but it takes an engineer to build a bridge that barely stands.” meaning there is probably not very much extra spec on that bridge to take missile strikes... What you show will work but is a bit conservative - the Overbridge does not need to sit on the supports directly, but about a quarter of the way in so a 30m Overbridge would work for a 50m span. Of course if the damage is done to about a quarter of the way from the support that is not possible. It is an interesting problem of where to hit the bridge for the best mix of immediate damage (centre span) Vs preventing Overbridging (quarter span) Vs maximum destruction (support). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 New Murz post. He explains the differences between LDNR arty and RU regulars arty. I translated the large part for the reference. By itself it is not necessary to read unless you are interested in RU arty and difference between regulars and hardcore volunteers arty. Also, it is a reminder not to dismiss volunteers. These are not a bunch of amateurs. Worse yet if defeated they most likely will escape to various bad actors enhancing their skills. Quote Intro So, let's leave aside the decision-making chains, which, if they are too long, slow down the opening of fire on detected targets. Let's say we have cured it at least somewhere, it is real and has already been cured in many places. Let's leave aside communication, on the quality and coverage of which a lot also depends. It is treatable, especially if there are personnel for this. Let's leave aside the very issue of detecting targets and observing them to adjust the fire. Let's say it's decided. Quadrics, “Eagles", RER [EW], artillery radars. Let's say the issues of maintenance and MTO of guns, spare parts for them, and in general, all the support is like a watch, including even the notorious timely weather. Let's say everything has been decided on the logistics of ammunition. What else can it all come down to? Where can precious minutes of art's reaction be lost, where dozens of projectiles/rockets can fly before the first splash close to the target? In the notorious “data preparation for shooting”. How RU regulars prepare data. What does this process look like according to the textbooks of the Armed Forces of RU of the 20th century? An artilleryman who manages the fire of a battery or a division is sitting in front of PUO [Director], a fire control device, a large iron suitcase with protractor rulers inside, sitting with a map, with a notebook, with firing tables, with an engineering calculator. And counts the shooting. Manually, as they say. On a piece of paper. What does this process look like in the Armed Forces of RU of the 21st century? An artilleryman who manages the fire of a battery or a division is sitting behind a PUO, a fire control device, such a large iron suitcase with protractor rulers inside, sitting with a map, with a notebook, with firing tables, with an engineering calculator. And counts the shooting. Manually. On a piece of paper. At the same time, everything is beautiful on the website of the developers of modern domestic portable PCs for artillery tasks (Well, except when on pictures where for some reason people with M16 and Panasonic laptops-tablets are in the frame). And even some of them, domestic and modern, have been purchased and are lying in distant capterks [storages] of permanent deployment points under the motto “We will not give it to you - you will break it, but it is expensive.” So, the realities on the ground are no different from the situation of thirty years ago. How AFU prepares data. At the same time, the AFU, which has been really fighting for seven years, has all the artillery working with artillery programs for tablets and smartphones. Everyone has it, it works, it provides a minimum of time to prepare data for firing, a minimum of sighting, a minimum of time spent in a firing position. History on volunteer arty methods evolution Of course, when the KTSPN [RU volunteer org] in the distant 2016th year was already delivering, including to the “Ghost”, iron suitcases of the PUO-9, the deceased “Kind”, LJ-user trueredrat, then still the commander deputy for reach echelon of the battalion, was already thinking how, having trained people on this PUO, how to explain it, so that they understood exactly what they calculate, what they multiply by and what is the point in this, then to automate their subsequent work calculations in battle as much as possible. And, of course, he arrived [to the idea] to purchase the same electronic artpads. And they have been near the guns for years. He himself made an electronic atlas from maps from Yandex.Sputnik to the battalion's combat zone in the format in which this atlas was understood by Artpad. All these years we had a database of planned targets, in which all numbered enemy objects on our front line were marked, and this base was loaded into each specially prepared tablet or smart[phone] with an “artbloknot” [artpad] and was regularly updated. The result is that it took SECONDS for the mortar and gunners to prepare the data for the first shot. To shoot, however, in response to the Ukrov [UKR] attacks, they rarely allowed [us] [During Minsk agreement phase RU command severely limited LDNR arty shootouts], but when they did... the 29th checkpoint was heavily fortified for a reason and almost kilometer-long communication lines at the UKR opposite us in some places were also dug up for a reason. To hit the Ukrov BMP from the D-30, which was stagnant in the caponier, from closed positions, with the separation of the turret and all the other things laid down, our people could [do] and had skill back then, and this had a pedagogical effect. Spreading of the arty skills And ours were not the only ones. Those gunners who really had to work, who wanted to get in, they put themselves artpads and worked. They killed the enemy, who was insolent from impunity, in those rare moments when they were allowed to do it. Of course, all this was not encouraged at the official level, because “These are smartphones! Google is eavesdropping on everything!” The result is a lot of curve and slow shooting after the start of its. Echelons of shells and missiles that flew "somewhere there". Because from a simple officer of an ordinary howitzer battery to domestic similar products “without Google” the distance as large as till China [walking] in a well-known pose. For a very long time. Future plans What to do? Try to massively automate the shooting of those who have not yet. Actually, right after they quickly added cluster shells to the artpad for the D-20, the OPSB [coalition of volunteer org] launched this process. The nuance of licensing artpads is that they are “tied” to specific smartphone IDs, and this has become another argument in favor of distributing not licenses for artpads, but protected smartphones with artpads already installed on them with necessary art systems. This separate smartphone does not go online, SIM cards are not inserted into it, games are not played on it. No one picks up a smartphone from the unit when he goes to the vocations or is transferred. Durable housing and screen, large battery. And one program to kill enemies quickly and efficiently. A smartphone that fits into a pocket, instead of a large iron suitcase and a stack of papers. Seconds instead of minutes. At the moment, there is not only a large queue of gunners in the OPSB for “leaning”. There is already an order from artillery for a new, previously unreleased android “artbloknot". And, with the active participation of the KTSPN, all the necessary paper documentation was found for this. The work of programmers is funded, we are waiting for the result. Thank you OPSB! Let's make sure that our numerous Russian artillery will ALL work with the same accuracy and speed with which the best artels [arty] of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or the best artels of the People's Militia of the Republics work, and the outcome of the case will be completely predetermined. Of course, if we don't run out of infantry sooner. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Perun on the "rocket slinging" https://youtu.be/qnoKpXvj41A?t=1682 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 (edited) Yesterday UKR lost Su-25. The pilot, 28 y.o mayor, chief of reckon of 299th tactical aviation brigade, Hero of Ukraine (awarded 14th April) Olekasndr Kukurba got lost. Since 24th of Feb he has conducted more 100 sorties According to Orix UKR visually lost 8 Su-25. This is 9th. Edited July 27, 2022 by Haiduk 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 "Civilian" Girkin (Nesmyan) about RU-Iran Aviation partnership Quote According to Iranian media, Iran has signed an agreement with Russia on the supply of parts and equipment for Western-made Russian aircraft, as well as repair and maintenance of the sides. This, let's put it bluntly, is a complete F. Iranian civil aviation is one of the most unsafe in the world. The main problem is the lack of spare parts for aircraft and a huge number of counterfeit or badly worn imported components and parts of extremely poor quality. Due to technical problems, 50 percent of the available 386 Iranian aircraft are on the ground. The newest Iranian Airbus A-330 aircraft were released in 1992. The number of air accidents in Iran is decreasing, but this is due to a decrease in the volume of air transportation itself, in specific figures, Iranian safety is at the level of the wildest African countries. And now it is Iran that will help out the Russian aviation industry. It is impossible to think of a better advertisement for the unconditional refusal to fly on Russian planes. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 WOW! Didn´t know that: South Korea to sign agreement with Poland for delivery of K2 tanks - K9 howitzers and FA-50 fighter | Defense News July 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year (armyrecognition.com) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 (edited) Interesting complaint from one Pro Kremlin propagandist. It is all what you need to know whether RU population thinks UKR "separatists" and their regions are truly Russian. Quote But it is completely unclear why the Russian official media live within the framework of the Ukrainian picture of the world. It seems that we do not raise the question at all that in Simferopol and Lugansk there are not mysterious peoples of Crimeans and LNRovci, but local Russians – who are fighting for their independence and for their unity with the great Motherland... And if you shy away from our very name and do not see ourselves, these are only problems of your relationship with reality. If the devil can't stand incense, it's not an incense problem. We are not "Russian-speaking". We are not "the peoples of Donetsk, Crimea, Lipetsk and Kuban." We are Russians. We're going home. Edited July 27, 2022 by Grigb 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 RUMINT - yesterday locals reported that RU abandons blockposts from Rybtsi till Liman (North of Slavynsk). Believe RU transfers forces to Kharkiv/Kypuansk Interesting Kharkov is where SBU intercepted several calls I translated. The calls described serious RU defeat there with huge manpower issues. Quote RU regular Kharkov direction UKR shelling RU lines everyday UKR squeezing RU. RU are losing currently. Everything is different from RU TV They should have 90 tanks according to TOE but right now they have 14 together from the whole regiment Their unit RU Artillery is inaccurate. They were trained for two days. They cannot hit anything LDNR fighter Kharkov direction Near Izum Believes no [RU] reserves are left Believes nobody [RU] wants to fight Comments RU are losing Says UKR smashed myth of undefeatable RU Army. RU regular Kharkov direction Says if he leaves for vacation he would not return back 40 men left [he did not say what unit but I believe he talks about riflemen of infantry battalion] and these 40 tried to advance couple of days ago so they are probably down to 20 now They are unable to capture a village [implying they are ramming one village all the time] [Unclear] 20 killed 100 wounded. So much corruption Boys got finished at Izum [probably means they become combat ineffective due to manpower losses] RU sends infantry without vehicles and tanks across a crosswalk [probably across the Border] RU regular Kharkiv direction Comments on UKR arty high accuracy RU cannot suppress UKR drones RU aviation is not present [no airplanes] RU helicopters appears may be 2 times a week shooting rockets at some forest from 5 km UKR helicopter may come twice a day but retreat quickly the same as RU Nothing there is [No any significant fire support] UKR uses highly mobile small mortar teams while RU uses big static inaccurate units RU regular Kharkov direction Comment UKR have good defensive positions During RU advance UKR arty/mortars destroys attacking RU vehicles and panic RU soldiers No good prospect for RU offensive 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 (edited) 11 hours ago, billbindc said: Precisely. Tolkien wrote an allegory about power, not war. More about allegory of fight between good vs. evil, that means- morallity and necessity of fighting for it at many levels, including power structures. Which is reflected in this real-life war that has all hallmarks of bellum iustum: https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Just_war_theory But what I mean in bringing Tolkien is that in this phase of the war, Putin has much more to gain from spreading lies, sowing short-sighted opportunism and nourishing self-doubt in Western societies than from actions of his mlitary. It is "civilian front" that will be more promising for Russia in the consecutive months. And he may be much better at it, considering his background and tools at his disposal; that is why I wrote about Orban. Since effects of his energy blackmail will be felt by almost everyone in Europe and most of our societies did not experienced such collective fear for dacades, we really need to harden ourselves against his propaganda. Ok, enough about books that some members (perhaps rightly) may found banal. Can anybody confirm this? Sounds like major development. https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine-darf-100-panzerhaubitzen-kaufen-a-6e1c331d-0da2-4218-9653-2ee96560da9d Also, interesting if true. Russia may soon experience serious shortage of junior officers. https://twitter.com/VDV_Textbooks/status/1552232501636173825 Edited July 27, 2022 by Beleg85 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Returning back to the question of whether RU can mobilize for long war. RU journal Arsenal of the Fatherland (Chief Editor military analytic Viktor Myrakhovsky) opinion. RU already used majority of available manpower sources RU has no capability to accept mobilized man due to lack of cropped units, that UKR has. So far RU mobilized tens of thousands of troops The only source manpower available to RU now are conscript units but it is difficult to use them due to political reasons. Quote It should be noted that the Armed Forces of RU have already used such reserves as the inclusion of the Rosgvardiya in the first-line troops, the recruitment of volunteers, the recruitment of conscripts for contract service. As a result, the enemy has a significantly larger number of available reservists due to general and non-voluntary mobilization. In this regard, there have been calls in the Russian media sphere for mobilization in the country. At first glance, the proposal seems justified, since the population in Russia is much higher than in Ukraine. In practice, the Armed Forces of RU has no cropped units [units consisting of HQ and specialists till mobilization], i.e. there are no "spare" battalions and regiments in units of constant readiness. The mobilized personnel now simply have nowhere to call. The reason for this was the course taken during the work of Defense Minister Serdyukov to abandon the Soviet mobilization system and move to the formation of permanent readiness units capable of entering into hostilities immediately. Expensive to keep, but combat-incapable without mobilization, the cropped units did not fit into the new scheme, and now they are gone. And Ukraine has them. RU has significantly fewer reservists who are ready to immediately join the battle than Ukraine. BARS (Special Combat Army Reserve) attracted several tens of thousands of reservists throughout the country. There are even fewer formally reservists - "partisans" undergoing retraining in units of the Armed Forces of RU after completing military service. The last reserve of the AF of RU, which can be involved, remain units staffed with conscripts. But the Russian authorities by all means do not want to use them in Ukraine, using only units consisting of contractors. All this allows the AFU to freely create numerical superiority over the Armed Forces of RU. In fact, the AFU are now turning into an instrument of total war, and Russia is still conducting military operations with a limited contingent of contract volunteers. Discussion: RU has no capability to wage long war. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, Beleg85 said: Also, interesting if true. Russia may soon experience serious shortage of junior officers. https://twitter.com/VDV_Textbooks/status/1552232501636173825 There was video in that thread. It is not from RU but from DNR. Still interesting. It shows Kherson front line toward Mykolaev. The second guy on video is 19 years old platoon commander who before mobilization was a student. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poesel Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 36 minutes ago, Beleg85 said: Can anybody confirm this? Sounds like major development. https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine-darf-100-panzerhaubitzen-kaufen-a-6e1c331d-0da2-4218-9653-2ee96560da9d SPIEGEL has a very, very good track record of having good information. You can assume it's true. But note that they will have to be produced. So no near future delivery. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 I decided to monitor Girkin VK with some precousions. It seems he is posting there info before Telegram. Quote According to newly received data, our units are counterattacking bridgeheads captured by the enemy on the southern bank of the river.Ingulets. Currently, the enemy has been knocked out of the village of Belogorka, the battles for Andreevka continue. The enemy threw a pontoon bridge across the Ingulets opposite Andreevka, as well as transfer equipment through the ford available in the area. The elimination of bridgeheads is of particular importance in connection with the expectation of a full-scale enemy offensive on the Kherson front, so as not to give him the opportunity to subsequently strike from them in the direction of Berislav - Novaya Kakhovka. Also, he ranted that he does not believe in delivery or Iran drones. And as usual he ranted about Shoigu. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Guess that means the Ukrainian military liked the PzH 2000s they already received. Now they want more! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, poesel said: SPIEGEL has a very, very good track record of having good information. You can assume it's true. But note that they will have to be produced. So no near future delivery. Depends. Topics I have some expertise in feel usually varying degrees of cringe worthy to me. Don't believe a word of what they write about physics related stuff. For politics they are quite good, though. (Or I just don't have enough knowledge to see the cringe worthiness ) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 8 hours ago, Grigb said: Are you CIA or something, Steve? If not, they better hire you. Heh. Well, I did contemplate a career with the CIA after graduating from university. However, I am a creature of my environment and did not want to relocate for that or any other job. So... here I am Thanks for the compliments and guidance. In true "analyst" fashion, I synthesize the information in front of me. The quality of my conclusions is directly related to the quality of information I have to look at. Your translations and personal insights have been extremely valuable to my thinking this stuff through. 8 hours ago, Grigb said: I really enjoy and appreciate your thoughts because it moves me out of my biased view and forces me to consider alternative view. Actually, I enjoy and appreciate all your guys opinions (even though I do feel uneasy toward some of them but still I do appreciate them). And I know everybody here appreciates your contributions. There is a limited amount we can translate through computer translations and those who are posting translations publicly don't seem to have the same focus as we do here. It's nice to have tailored research! Your points about Putin cleaning out "moderates" from the security apparatus is significant. Of course he had to get rid of these guys because independent thinking siloviks are a threat to someone who wants to destabilize the old order. Which, for better or worse, was relatively balanced for an autocratic system. This undermining of the previous balance is why Russia has been sliding towards some sort of showdown for many years now. The less well rounded the governmental systems are, the inherently less stable the government is. As we've noted, Putin launched this war in Ukraine without any consultation with representatives of the other power blocks. In particular those from industry, finance, and other things economic. However, this is not to say there aren't people within the security apparatus that won't become "pragmatists" over time. You can see this sort of thing in all autocratic environments, even in democracies. At some point people with even 1/2 a brain "see the writing on the wall" and decide, even if for purely self preservation reasons, that they need to switch sides. There are also holdouts within the security services. Ones that were pragmatic enough to avoid doing things to call attention to themselves and therefore get purged over the last 20 years. They will likely switch sides too. It's going to be messy. I'd say the bulk of the Pragmatists (I'll capitalize them for more fun!) will come from economic interests. These guys know better than anybody in Russia how badly this war is going and how steep the costs are. Whether they be the stereotypical criminal oligarch type or someone that just likes their job, they will be bound together with common cause to end this war. Somehow. Anybody that has even a small amount of Western thinking in their blood will side with this group. The bulk of the Ultranationalists will come from the dregs of Russian society. Some will be deep thinkers who really believe in Russian imperialism, some who have been effectively brainwashed by a lifetime of propaganda, and many will just be thugs who want to remain employed by an autocratic system. Lots of people will switch sides willingly depending on circumstances. That is always the way of the masses. The military is going to be a very interesting thing to watch. The leadership might very well break towards the Ultranationalists, but the rank and file will likely not. They will want this war over with right away and that isn't what the Ultras can offer. I could see them behaving more like 1991 when they largely ignored orders to secure power for the coup plotters, but didn't actively go out and hunt them down. Since the Ultras require the military to be on their side in a functional way, not getting the military to do what it wants means they will not succeed in taking power in Moscow. And as Grigb points out, failing to take power there means not taking power anywhere. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOS:96B2P Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 10 hours ago, chrisl said: Putin's Pocket? +1 Sounds like a good title for a scenario. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 I've realized I'm being a bad analyst guy and mixing some stuff up in my posts. I'll clarify. This war is the end of the Russian Federation as we know it, but an overt civil war (e.g. thousands of people shooting at each other) is only one possible outcome. I think it is increasingly the most likely outcome, especially in the Caucuses, but there are ways it could be avoided. The thing is, every day this war goes on the chances that there's some other way to end the war without a full on civil war diminish. As stated above, the forces looking to change the situation one way or another are being forced to become more extreme in their thinking. This is not a good indicator that some sort of peaceful reconfiguration of the Russian federal system is possible. When this war started I figured that Chechnya would break away and many of the Republics would seek to renegotiate their relationship with Moscow. The benefits of being a part of some sort of united Russian state are definitely strong, so this should be the way it goes. But as things get worse and worse at the front, it's stirring up all kinds of resentment in some of the most important and distant Republics. At the very least I think they will push for far more autonomy than they would have 3 or 4 months ago of there had been a successful coup against Putin. Put another way, the longer this war goes on the less likely anybody within Russia is going to want to compromise with the "other side". That will diminish the possibilities of peaceful settlement of long standing disputes that are now more evident than they were prewar. Still, if this does lead to civil war there is a huge range of possible results all the way from a massive bloody massacre, like 1917-1920s, or a fairly limited one like 1990 with specific horrors after. I don't see it going much better than 1990-1998. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 On 7/26/2022 at 9:47 AM, akd said: Sakhalin OMON officers killed in the HIMARS strike on court house in Lysychansk: Lt. Col. Oleg Vostrikov Maj. Alexei Ivanushkin @sburke @Kinophile Maj. Dmitri Polyansky also. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Russian military quickly approaching WWII levels of professionalism: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 one of the guys looks to be at least 40, too. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.