How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

10 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I have heard the argument "They shouldn't have done X, now the enemy will use it against them in media" about so many Xs, I can't even take it seriously anymore. Seems Ukraine should just sit and let themselves be bombed because anything they do will be used against them.

Yeah, I get it. Showing Orban the middle finger feels great, I'm sure, and personally I congratulate Selensky on it. But that doesn't pay bills, EU financial aid does. So, aggravating Orban might not be the smartest move when he has veto power and you depend on foreign aid to stay in the fight. No matter how bitter it is and whether he might veto whatever anyway. Especially when you just have to sit back and watch the guy embarassing himself and bringing up the rest of the EU against him, even more than he usually does.

Well, let's just hope the loss in revenue for Russia makes up for it.

[Carolus]

Statistics about Russian losses for 2024.

"Gleitender Mittelwert" on the 4th image = moving average

Based on UAF numbers, so the absolute values can be / might be / probably are overstated, but can be used to gauge trends.

Tanks, APCs, manpower arching down, logistics and artillery losses going up. The latter is interesting.

Edited July 22 by Carolus

[Carolus]

13 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Yeah, I get it. Showing Orban the middle finger feels great, I'm sure, and personally I congratulate Selensky on it. But that doesn't pay bills, EU financial aid does. So, aggravating Orban might not be the smartest move when he has veto power and you depend on foreign aid to stay in the fight. No matter how bitter it is and whether he might veto whatever anyway. Especially when you just have to sit back and watch the guy embarassing himself and bringing up the rest of the EU against him, even more than he usually does.

Well, let's just hope the loss in revenue for Russia makes up for it.

So, how much aid has Hungary not tried to veto thanks to previous existing good will and cooperation?

It required a special deal with Orban every single time.

How do we not know this is the direct result of Zelensky and EU partners negotiating with Orban on the next aid package, him throwing his veto into the ring again, and he thought the other side is just bluffing (just like the withholding of EU funds for Hungary), and now they showed their hand and actually had double aces?

You are interpreting this entirely as a semi-disconnected move when it could be just a direct result of ongoing talks as well. And now the ball is in Orban's field again. His negotiating position was weakened. Diplomatic good will was not wasted because there never was any.

[hcrof]

5 minutes ago, Carolus said:

So, how much aid has Hungary not tried to veto thanks to previous existing good will and cooperation?

It required a special deal with Orban every single time.

How do we not know this is the direct result of Zelensky and EU partners negotiating with Orban on the next aid package, him throwing his veto into the ring again, and he thought the other side is just bluffing (just like the withholding of EU funds for Hungary), and now they showed their hand and actually had double aces?

You are interpreting this entirely as a semi-disconnected move when it could be just a direct result of ongoing talks as well. And now the ball is in Orban's field again. His negotiating position was weakened. Diplomatic good will was not wasted because there never was any.

I kind of agree with this - orbans hand now is very weak. Hungarys economy is weakening, the deficit is alarmingly high, inflation is going up. He needs EU funds to fix the problems (that he created with his pre-election spending spree) but they are being withheld. If fuel is withheld as well it will cause a further spike in inflation and also requires him to import fuel from other EU countries since Hungary is landlocked. 

Basically the EU now has him over a barrel. I hope they use the opportunity to extract severe concessions. 

[Grigb]

37 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Yeah, I get it. Showing Orban the middle finger feels great, I'm sure, and personally I congratulate Selensky on it. But that doesn't pay bills, EU financial aid does. So, aggravating Orban might not be the smartest move when he has veto power and you depend on foreign aid to stay in the fight.

Zelensky did a smart move. You suggested otherwise.

[omae2]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Yeah, I get it. Showing Orban the middle finger feels great, I'm sure, and personally I congratulate Selensky on it. But that doesn't pay bills, EU financial aid does. So, aggravating Orban might not be the smartest move when he has veto power and you depend on foreign aid to stay in the fight. No matter how bitter it is and whether he might veto whatever anyway. Especially when you just have to sit back and watch the guy embarassing himself and bringing up the rest of the EU against him, even more than he usually does.

Well, let's just hope the loss in revenue for Russia makes up for it.

If i consider that the main leverage over Hungary is the energy that come from russians, than i would say cutting those lines will help us in the long term. Orban would **** over Zelensky anyway he done it before he will do it again. With Orban losing the only real reason that he is sucking russian *** in the last 3 years, and with the fact that he's gonna be forced to make deal with western suppliers would might cause a sudden turn in his foreign policy. He will blame it on the EU and USA and Soros and such, but he does that for ten years now. Its nothing new. We Hungarians gonna suck again as usual but i kinda feel like it has to happen to break the bubble.

On the other hand one of the main thing with Hungary that its a hotbed for foreign factories. We don't have our own industry cause western competitors quickly destroyed them after system change back at 91. (One example is a sugar factory that they couldn't buy so as the saga says a french businessman payed the sugar carrot suppliers three years yield worth of money so they don't grow the carrot. In three year the factory closed cause it lost its main supplier.) So we have car factories as many other type of factories cause the workers here earn around third of what a German earn for the same job. Now my question is the following.

1.: How will that loss of energy affect the EUR and the companies that produce here in Hungary?

2.: What kind of foreign currency should i put my savings cause it looks like the HUF gonna go down the toilet?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

Statistics about Russian losses for 2024.

"Gleitender Mittelwert" on the 4th image = moving average

Based on UAF numbers, so the absolute values can be / might be / probably are overstated, but can be used to gauge trends.

Tanks, APCs, manpower arching down, logistics and artillery losses going up. The latter is interesting.

There are several threads on Twitter attempting to calculate Russian losses in longer or shorter periods. However, the figures do not really mean much if one does not have an idea, what effect does this or that level of losses have on Russian ability to fight the war (actually I stopped reading them because of that). People write " this is not sustainable" - but is it really? So is anyone aware of any attempt to interpret those losses in light of their effect on RUS army?

An extremely crude example would be as follows: RUS army has, say, 750 K troops in theatre. On average, they manage to raise 30 K new soldiers per month. If the UKR manages to put out of action per month, say, 40 K. Russians, then they create a monthly shortfall of 10 K men. Say Russians were last vulnerable during the UKR Kharkov offensive in early Autumn 2022, when they had 400 K men in theatre. So in order to whittle down RUS to a size, when they will again be very overstretched and vulnerable, would take 3 years (35 months) of attrition at the level, on the average, of 40 K casualties per month.  While very much a back-of-the envelope thing, this kind of calculation does give some of the feel of the relative impact of the losses (on the Russians, as we do not have the equivalent UKR statistics). 

Anything like this (hopefully more detailed and supported by real evidence) available anywhere?

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, omae2 said:

2.: What kind of foreign currency should i put my savings cause it looks like the HUF gonna go down the toilet?

Hryvnia

(Not financial advice)

[LongLeftFlank]

5 hours ago, Holien said:

Ukraine is going to be a cold and dark place this winter. Those that support Russia in doing this need to understand that actions have consequences.

Winter is coming...

So be it, but let as much of European Russia as possible join Ukraine in the 19th century.

[ArmouredTopHat]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

There are several threads on Twitter attempting to calculate Russian losses in longer or shorter periods. However, the figures do not really mean much if one does not have an idea, what effect does this or that level of losses have on Russian ability to fight the war (actually I stopped reading them because of that). People write " this is not sustainable" - but is it really? So is anyone aware of any attempt to interpret those losses in light of their effect on RUS army?

An extremely crude example would be as follows: RUS army has, say, 750 K troops in theatre. On average, they manage to raise 30 K new soldiers per month. If the UKR manages to put out of action per month, say, 40 K. Russians, then they create a monthly shortfall of 10 K men. Say Russians were last vulnerable during the UKR Kharkov offensive in early Autumn 2022, when they had 400 K men in theatre. So in order to whittle down RUS to a size, when they will again be very overstretched and vulnerable, would take 3 years (35 months) of attrition at the level, on the average, of 40 K casualties per month.  While very much a back-of-the envelope thing, this kind of calculation does give some of the feel of the relative impact of the losses (on the Russians, as we do not have the equivalent UKR statistics). 

Anything like this (hopefully more detailed and supported by real evidence) available anywhere?

While overall we cant get a fully accurate indication of sustainability, we can take snippets of information and apply them as generalisations to get a picture of Russian sustainability. All of the takes I have seen that factor in such data point to a Russia that within a year is going to at best see an increasing polarisation of new to old equipment, with the latter running increasingly short if they want to maintain the force projection they have going. 

Its not about them 'running out' as such, but becoming more and more constrained with what they can do as well as limit what new / replacement units can field in terms of kit. At the rate of attrition we see visually confirmed Russia is going to run out of machines and weapons before they run out of people. 

Picture it on the smaller scale. A Russian artillery unit for example is more likely to operate older guns as time goes on, with increasingly worn barrels with older ammunition. replacements are simply far too slow, especially with regards to spare barrels. This all has a knock on effect. The quality of fires is only going to decrease and that both reduces Ukrainian casualties while also making it easier for them to counter the system as they have to get closer in order to fire properly. We are seeing this already to a degree with FPVs able to hunt down towed systems.  

Artillery seems to be an area which remains heavily relied on by the Russians to achieve what little they can, so any constraints to its ability have a major effect on the frontline. 
 

 

Edited July 22 by ArmouredTopHat

[ArmouredTopHat]

Would love to see some concrete data on the Vampire system, seems a pretty cheap way to dispose of Geran type long range attack drones. (I presume the modified hydra rocket is somewhat cheaper than said munition)

Hopefully Ukraine gets more of these to deal with the recon drones behind their lines. 
 

 

[billbindc]

Interesting:

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/15446266

[FancyCat]

4 hours ago, Butschi said:

Yeah, I get it. Showing Orban the middle finger feels great, I'm sure, and personally I congratulate Selensky on it. But that doesn't pay bills, EU financial aid does. So, aggravating Orban might not be the smartest move when he has veto power and you depend on foreign aid to stay in the fight. No matter how bitter it is and whether he might veto whatever anyway. Especially when you just have to sit back and watch the guy embarassing himself and bringing up the rest of the EU against him, even more than he usually does.

Well, let's just hope the loss in revenue for Russia makes up for it.

Hungary is actively blocking and vetoing aid to Ukraine right now. About 6 billion euros of funding is still held up by Hungary. 

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-russia/news/eu-member-states-seek-clarity-on-hungarys-russia-china-shuttle-diplomacy/

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/whats-store-hungarian-presidency-eu-council

[omae2]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

There are several threads on Twitter attempting to calculate Russian losses in longer or shorter periods. However, the figures do not really mean much if one does not have an idea, what effect does this or that level of losses have on Russian ability to fight the war (actually I stopped reading them because of that). People write " this is not sustainable" - but is it really? So is anyone aware of any attempt to interpret those losses in light of their effect on RUS army?

An extremely crude example would be as follows: RUS army has, say, 750 K troops in theatre. On average, they manage to raise 30 K new soldiers per month. If the UKR manages to put out of action per month, say, 40 K. Russians, then they create a monthly shortfall of 10 K men. Say Russians were last vulnerable during the UKR Kharkov offensive in early Autumn 2022, when they had 400 K men in theatre. So in order to whittle down RUS to a size, when they will again be very overstretched and vulnerable, would take 3 years (35 months) of attrition at the level, on the average, of 40 K casualties per month.  While very much a back-of-the envelope thing, this kind of calculation does give some of the feel of the relative impact of the losses (on the Russians, as we do not have the equivalent UKR statistics). 

Anything like this (hopefully more detailed and supported by real evidence) available anywhere?

Only if the russian logistic crack. I have no idea how they manage with ammunition but meat is no problem to the russians. While we see them attacking they really just buying time with meat. Putting constant pressure with little gains seem crazy for us when we see the bodies but it makes sense from their perspective. They don't loose anything of value. Ammunition on the other hand is very precious. Blowing factories where they are made and field depots are much more important it seems than killing russians.

In the long term as the war is going its no sustainable for Ukraine. Its obvious that Trump will be the next USA president so i have no clue how things could change but without destroying the means of military productions there is no way to put the russians to their knees. While the discussions of the future of warfare are interesting the sad reality is that russia can force its will on us with their twisted methods. We couldn't find a way to force them to reconsider because of the fear of escalation. Which is part of the russian plan from the get go. They knew we gonna hesitate. We cant reach the russian population because of how the russian society works. They will not force their leaders to reconsider this war effort. Which again something they knew. We are divided and bickering constantly, missing moments where our decision could actually make a difference. They knew that as well. So far to be honest i would say that while militarily the russians sucks, their political plan works as intended. In the end they will be able to justify the whole thing, and make an example of it how they beat the NATO. Their kids gonna be raised by this notion, their leaders will plan on this notion. Im just an average guy and i know that i have no expertise only an option but i think this whole thing is royally ****ed up by us. So many opportunity wasted, and slowly we are at the corner where we have no wiggle room.

Two years ago we enjoyed the feeling of russian defeat at kharkiv. Now we don't see any prospect of UA offensive. They are bled dry, lack of the necessary tools and facing an opponent that dig themself in properly. I'm not a defeatist, I'm hoping that someone will shine a light on a fact i haven't considered, or many of them. I would've like the world better if the russians leave the whole of Ukraine and their leaders would be put on trial but that seems like fantasy as of today. Now the best course of action would be to deny any future attempts from russia or any other outside force with interfering of the European sphere of influence. We have to make sure that what is left from Ukraine is on solid foundations with an army that will be able to drag down the russians when next they try. We have to make sure that we are united, that we find foreign clients and make them ineffective. We have to make sure that we are not intertwined with economies that are a threat to our way of life. Globalization reached its limits. We have to consider getting back into the game in Africa, using money, diplomacy and violence if necessary to secure the resources that needed for the European economy. Otherwise we will eventually find our self so weak that its gonna provoke outside forces to attack. As they did in 2014 and 2022.

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, omae2 said:

Only if the russian logistic crack. I have no idea how they manage with ammunition but meat is no problem to the russians. While we see them attacking they really just buying time with meat. Putting constant pressure with little gains seem crazy for us when we see the bodies but it makes sense from their perspective. They don't loose anything of value. Ammunition on the other hand is very precious. Blowing factories where they are made and field depots are much more important it seems than killing russians.

In the long term as the war is going its no sustainable for Ukraine. Its obvious that Trump will be the next USA president so i have no clue how things could change but without destroying the means of military productions there is no way to put the russians to their knees. While the discussions of the future of warfare are interesting the sad reality is that russia can force its will on us with their twisted methods. We couldn't find a way to force them to reconsider because of the fear of escalation. Which is part of the russian plan from the get go. They knew we gonna hesitate. We cant reach the russian population because of how the russian society works. They will not force their leaders to reconsider this war effort. Which again something they knew. We are divided and bickering constantly, missing moments where our decision could actually make a difference. They knew that as well. So far to be honest i would say that while militarily the russians sucks, their political plan works as intended. In the end they will be able to justify the whole thing, and make an example of it how they beat the NATO. Their kids gonna be raised by this notion, their leaders will plan on this notion. Im just an average guy and i know that i have no expertise only an option but i think this whole thing is royally ****ed up by us. So many opportunity wasted, and slowly we are at the corner where we have no wiggle room.

Two years ago we enjoyed the feeling of russian defeat at kharkiv. Now we don't see any prospect of UA offensive. They are bled dry, lack of the necessary tools and facing an opponent that dig themself in properly. I'm not a defeatist, I'm hoping that someone will shine a light on a fact i haven't considered, or many of them. I would've like the world better if the russians leave the whole of Ukraine and their leaders would be put on trial but that seems like fantasy as of today. Now the best course of action would be to deny any future attempts from russia or any other outside force with interfering of the European sphere of influence. We have to make sure that what is left from Ukraine is on solid foundations with an army that will be able to drag down the russians when next they try. We have to make sure that we are united, that we find foreign clients and make them ineffective. We have to make sure that we are not intertwined with economies that are a threat to our way of life. Globalization reached its limits. We have to consider getting back into the game in Africa, using money, diplomacy and violence if necessary to secure the resources that needed for the European economy. Otherwise we will eventually find our self so weak that its gonna provoke outside forces to attack. As they did in 2014 and 2022.

there are too many assumptions there to take any of your conclusions at face value.

1. We do not have any certainty about the US elections.  Not sure how you have concluded it is obvious Trump will win.  

2. Russia does not have endless quantities of "meat"

3. Russia's political plan sucked as much as its military.  Its international isolation is off the charts for what Putin expected.

'Pariah': war leaves Russia shell of former self at Olympics (yahoo.com)

4. Economically Putin has wrecked Russia for at least a generation - those oil fields aren't getting the parts they need with western oil companies out of the picture

Sure we'd all love it if Russia just folded up its tent and left Ukraine completely.  The reality is however the war will drag on, but the cost to Russia is greater than its losses on the battlefield or even its current economic dilemma.  Putin will be remembered as the guy who finally buried Russia as a world power.

[Grigb]

40 minutes ago, omae2 said:

Only if the russian logistic crack. I have no idea how they manage with ammunition but meat is no problem to the russians. While we see them attacking they really just buying time with meat. Putting constant pressure with little gains seem crazy for us when we see the bodies but it makes sense from their perspective. They don't loose anything of value. Ammunition on the other hand is very precious. Blowing factories where they are made and field depots are much more important it seems than killing russians.

In the long term as the war is going its no sustainable for Ukraine. Its obvious that Trump will be the next USA president so i have no clue how things could change but without destroying the means of military productions there is no way to put the russians to their knees. While the discussions of the future of warfare are interesting the sad reality is that russia can force its will on us with their twisted methods. We couldn't find a way to force them to reconsider because of the fear of escalation. Which is part of the russian plan from the get go. They knew we gonna hesitate. We cant reach the russian population because of how the russian society works. They will not force their leaders to reconsider this war effort. Which again something they knew. We are divided and bickering constantly, missing moments where our decision could actually make a difference. They knew that as well. So far to be honest i would say that while militarily the russians sucks, their political plan works as intended. In the end they will be able to justify the whole thing, and make an example of it how they beat the NATO. Their kids gonna be raised by this notion, their leaders will plan on this notion. Im just an average guy and i know that i have no expertise only an option but i think this whole thing is royally ****ed up by us. So many opportunity wasted, and slowly we are at the corner where we have no wiggle room.

Two years ago we enjoyed the feeling of russian defeat at kharkiv. Now we don't see any prospect of UA offensive. They are bled dry, lack of the necessary tools and facing an opponent that dig themself in properly. I'm not a defeatist, I'm hoping that someone will shine a light on a fact i haven't considered, or many of them. I would've like the world better if the russians leave the whole of Ukraine and their leaders would be put on trial but that seems like fantasy as of today. Now the best course of action would be to deny any future attempts from russia or any other outside force with interfering of the European sphere of influence. We have to make sure that what is left from Ukraine is on solid foundations with an army that will be able to drag down the russians when next they try. We have to make sure that we are united, that we find foreign clients and make them ineffective. We have to make sure that we are not intertwined with economies that are a threat to our way of life. Globalization reached its limits. We have to consider getting back into the game in Africa, using money, diplomacy and violence if necessary to secure the resources that needed for the European economy. Otherwise we will eventually find our self so weak that its gonna provoke outside forces to attack. As they did in 2014 and 2022.

Seriously, comrade?

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Interesting:

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/15446266

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1510124746?i=1000662869182

This is the Apple link. Galliotti goes in the Rosgvridya in detail. Most interestingly he make a pretty strong case that the unrelenting demands of the war have reduced the margins of the rest of the security establishment to near zero. Putin VERY few reserves if he has another problem.

[dan/california]

One more indication of economic stress in Russia. 

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

One more indication of economic stress in Russia. 

I'm sorry I don't have enough time to translate everything; the Russian economy is in crisis. On one side, there is significant inflation (10% is the official figure, not the real number). And no interest rate can correct that issue (it is a structural issue caused by Western sanctions). But on the other hand, their present 16% interest rate is practically killing the Russian economy and, particularly, its manufacturing capability.

AFAIR Putin civils servants recently confessed that they keep interest rates so high to prevent inflation from quickly becoming hyperinflation, triggering widespread panic and everything else be damned becasue due to widespread panic everything else will be damned anyway. 

[Carolus]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I'm sorry I don't have enough time to translate everything; the Russian economy is in crisis. On one side, there is significant inflation (10% is the official figure, not the real number). And no interest rate can correct that issue (it is a structural issue caused by Western sanctions). But on the other hand, their present 16% interest rate is practically killing the Russian economy and, particularly, its manufacturing capability.

AFAIR Putin civils servants recently confessed that they keep interest rates so high to prevent inflation from quickly becoming hyperinflation, triggering widespread panic and everything else be damned becasue due to widespread panic everything else will be damned anyway. 

Not to be personal, but can you get yourself into safe waters? 

[Grigb]

5 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Not to be personal, but can you get yourself into safe waters? 

What do you mean get - yourself into safe waters?

[Carolus]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

What do you mean get - yourself into safe waters?

My apologies - I assumed you were located in Russia. I wondered if you could avoid the economic problems.

Edited July 22 by Carolus

[Artkin]

Just came across this website which has multiple order of battles for Ukrainian units. Is anyone familiar enough with the OOB to confirm the charts are correct? Some units don't have a chart. 

 

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/mechanized-troops-of-ukraine/

[Battlefront.com]

13 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Update from Ukrainian CiC Oleksandr Syrskyi:
https://t.me/osirskiy/774
 

 

Interesting.  When he asks the rhetorical question about how to stop the Russians, I looked hard for a mention of tanks amongst all the mentions of drones, but sheesh... I couldn't find one!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

30 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Just came across this website which has multiple order of battles for Ukrainian units. Is anyone familiar enough with the OOB to confirm the charts are correct? Some units don't have a chart. 

 

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/mechanized-troops-of-ukraine/

I haven't checked in with them lately, but they were my #1 source for information in the first two years of the war.  They not only do a great job tracking info, but they provide references.  I found their combat maps to be pretty fair representations too.

Steve