How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I take offence to the term "research".  I have reviewed your thread and clearly you had a conclusion and then set about picking information to support it.  This is not "research" it is "spinning" - I have failed staff college students for doing what you are proposing as "research", applying half the facts, largely out of context.

Thanks for spending your time doing this to mitigate Erwin's chances of swaying someone with this sort of junk.  For long time Forum members it's enough to see his name to know what follows is agenda driven.

Steve

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Holien said:

The naval drones could be used from other ships?

You just need to get them to the vicinity in a mother ship.

Interesting times...

No, HUR issued a video with a short cadre of ignition inside the ship. It's claimed communication and contrtol system was damaged by fire. More likely diversion, even probably by the hands of crewman, bribed by HUR.  Recently HUR made a statement, that they had own agent from BSF sailors, who set GPS tracker on "Moskva" cruiser and this as if helped to track Russian ship. Maybe just PsyOps to force Russian FSB to see HUR agent in any sailor %)

 

[Bearstronaut]

1 hour ago, omae2 said:

 

This war is now a grind because of the state of warfare in present day, therefor the critical factor can be psyops. Nato states should actively hunt for russian influencers and speed up the propaganda machine against the russians. Also there should be a constant effort to influence the russian population with every tool available.  There should be a constant stream of war is terrible propaganda aimed at the russian average Joe and Jane. Hacked TV stations, abusing VK algorithm to show the pointless and cruel end of the russians in Ukraine. Constantly, everyday, beating in to their head that this is pointless, terrible and can be stopped by them.

 

The west in general and the USA in particular operate at a disadvantage in the IO realm. Russia and China strictly control public messaging and will swiftly arrest and/or disappear the type of information warfare conduits they use in our society. David Sacks going on Twitter and doomcasting about Ukraine's chances in the war may be odious, but he has a First Amendment right to do so. 

[Holien]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

More likely diversion, even probably by the hands of crewman, bribed by HUR. 

Cheaper and more accurate...

Now if we could find a Kremlin bodyguard who would put a fire under the Dicktator at the head of this BS...

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, Holien said:

The usual Russia blaming Ukraine for it...

Yeah. I can't see what possible reason Ukraine would have for doing that.

Dave

[The_Capt]

52 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for spending your time doing this to mitigate Erwin's chances of swaying someone with this sort of junk.  For long time Forum members it's enough to see his name to know what follows is agenda driven.

Steve

What ticks me off is that he is going to go off and sulk now, muttering about how we are all “high on copium” and “smother alternative views.”  I resent the echo chamber accusation immensely.  Many people have put in a lot of time and effort to keep up with this war.  We are definitely pro-Ukraine but we also try to avoid the blinders as best we can. If they do not want to get beat up, come in with stronger arguments…and maybe some actual facts.

Is Russia still in this thing?  Definitely.  I am not sure exactly how but it is undeniable that they are still holding and even capable of tactical advances.  However as many from this individual’s camp are prone to do, there is a double standard against Ukraine in just about all things. I am willing to bet Russia winds up taking about as much as Ukraine re-took last summer.  To them this is a clear sign “Russia can never be beaten!”  Meanwhile when Ukraine did it last summer, “see they will never push Russia out!”  It really doesn’t matter what happens the conclusions are always the same.

Ukraine is holding on just as well, if not better than Russia.  The UA is undergoing reforms.  The West is slowly getting its act together - this NATO collective mechanism for support is a good idea, if it doesn’t get weighed down in bureaucratic sludge.  Russia is not “getting better” by any stretch.  Advances come at horrendous costs.  Losses continue to stack.  They do appear to have some concerning glimmers of C4ISR daylight but they never really coalesce.  Ukraine continues to demonstrate significant strategic strike acumen.

As to the finish line…who knows?  Could Russia operationally collapse…sure, they have twice before.  Can the full on strategic collapse…definitely.  They did in 1917 and 1991, they can do it again.  Hell Priggy’s wild ride had real potential.  Will they?  Again, we do not know.  The second anyone from either side of this goes “this is how this war will end”, I for one, stop listening.  All we can do is hold on and hold fast.

Edited April 8 by The_Capt

[Haiduk]

"Magyar" shows three FPV-interceptions of Russian fixed-wing kamikadze drones. He shows ELINT operator screens - right display reflects intercepted video from Russian drone, the left screen - the video from UKR FPV-pilot glasses. 

"Magyar" says these Russian drones has a warhead just slightly weaker than in Lancets and these drones have more stable channel, so EW units spent more time to supress them. So, to fasten this process such improvised "Krynky drone air defense" was developed. 

At the end "Magyar" tells for one day his unit detected 9 such kamikadze drones - three were intrecepted by FPVs, three - by EW, three, alas, weren't supressed. Also in FPV interceptions already trained UAV units of 38th marines brigade and 126th TD brigade, operating on left bank of Dnipro.

It's unknown how high this FPV interceptors can fly, but it can be useful novation, because on Donetsk and Kharkiv directions Russian recon Zala, SuperCam, Orlan drones hang in the air 24/7 by dozens - we havn't so much ground forces AD systems like Strela-10, Stormer or Tunguska to cover 100 % of space against small targets. 

Edited April 8 by Haiduk

[Kraft]

[Haiduk]

Turtle-tank %)

[Haiduk]

Russians gradually increase activity on Siversk direction

For today pidors already in second time conduct assault actions toward Verkhniokamyans'ke. For now three tanks and BMP has destroyed so far. Arty of pidors doesn't shut up for the second day and + KABs. 

According to Kostiantyn Mashovets on this direction mainly involved 2nd Army Corps of LNR (123rd, 7th and 6th motor-rifle brigades), reinforced by Russian 106th VDV division.

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Turtle-tank %)

This little CSS Merrimack will only need to find its USS Monitor now...

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Comparing modern day China to Nazi-Germany is just plain dumb.  Maybe pre-WW1 Germany - ignoring socialist ideologies and about four thousand years of history and culture.  The idea that China somehow masterminded this whole thing (with zero proof, I might add) is laughable.  China is stuck on the other side of this mess and is trying to deal with it on their end. They are going to pursue and promote their interests, just like we are.

Russia and Putin are throwing up all over themselves in some weird attempt to rebuild an Imperial Russia...and are failing brutally.  Sure, Russia could "hold on" until we see some sort of Armistice.  They will have gained a grand total of an additional 6-7% of Ukraine from what they controlled on 21 Feb 22.  It only cost them around 500k men, most of their modern military equipment and diplomatic/geographic isolation that may last several decades....brilliant. 

Ad vocem this entire "China is learning our tools of trade debate" and WWII analogies, worth to note one additional factor- did anyone heard about foreign observers in Russia in this war? North Korean? Iranian? Chinese? I read in one Russian newspaper in this war about some Iranian group, but they seem to be technicians manning the drones. It is possible similar groups are operating from North Korea, behind the frontlines, but nothing official.

If anyone seriously think about throwing gauntlet against US world order and learn in UA, one would need serious military mission collecting data, attached to military of "friendly" side, either in form of observers or even "advisors" like in Cold War- and this is much more than normal military attachee in embassy sending analysis to Central. I have little doubts such missions in UA exists from several Western states, but so far we didn't notice any constant presence of official advisors on Russian side. They could be there, naturally, and we simply don't see them...though it is improbable NATO intelligence wouldn't know about them either.

Even if they exist and are good as hell in analysing this war, it dosn't automatically mean such knowledge would be used  by military of beforementioned third country. Technicialities, like qualities of some more advanced missile or AFV armours- perhaps (though it doesn't seem we gave UAF anything particulary fanciful). But rest? To use practical knowledge and implement it, like coordination in CC nets on battlefield, operation procedures etc. is not an easy task even for largely coup-proof militaries like Chinese Army.

If people use analogies with this war to Civil War in Spain- where is Legion Condor and similar units? Thousands of advisors on both sides? None state can seriously draw conclusions as to future war and remodel its military only by watching Youtube videos.

Edited April 8 by Beleg85

[Holien]

7 hours ago, Erwin said:

All Russia has to do is sit on that land and hold out.

Ok why are they still attacking? 

[Offshoot]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Turtle-tank %)

Video of it (from the 2 minute mark)

 

[FancyCat]

Just wanna point out rare metals aren't that rare, just that the cost of discovery has meant its not worth it till now. The U.S has found lithium deposits that may be the largest in the world, one under the Salton Sea in California, one on the border of Nevada - Oregon. 

https://alumni.berkeley.edu/california-magazine/online/californias-salton-sea-could-be-the-mother-lode-of-lithium/

Quote

Such constricted supply lines threaten to monkey wrench the EV revolution. What’s needed is a reliable domestic source of lithium, one immune to the vagaries of geopolitics and hiccups on the global market. And as it turns out, one has been found: the Salton Sea in Southern California. Deep beneath the ancient lake bed are geothermically active aquifers brimming with lithium-infused brine. 

How much lithium? Late last year, scientists at Berkeley Lab released a detailed report that quantified the resource: around 3.4 million tons of the pure metal, with about 2.6 million tons considered recoverable under current and expected technologies. Given that the world consumption of lithium currently is less than 200,000 tons annually, the Salton Sea reserves could power U.S. EVs—not to mention smartphones, laptops, and tablets—for many years.

https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/lithium-discovery-in-us-volcano-could-be-biggest-deposit-ever-found/4018032.article

 

Edited April 8 by FancyCat

[Joe982]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Turtle-tank %)

Leonardo Da Vinci made one of these I think.

.

 

[Fenris]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Turtle-tank %)

 

Noel has some close up vision of it - second clip.

 

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Turtle-tank %)

That is just insane.  Forget situational awareness and they cannot swing the gun.  Sure it may stop FPVs but now gets lit up by ATGMs and artillery.

It has to be really bad for vehicles if the Russians are trying out stuff like this.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

This little CSS Merrimack will only need to find its USS Monitor now...

Ad vocem this entire "China is learning our tools of trade debate" and WWII analogies, worth to note one additional factor- did anyone heard about foreign observers in Russia in this war? North Korean? Iranian? Chinese? I read in one Russian newspaper in this war about some Iranian group, but they seem to be technicians manning the drones. It is possible similar groups are operating from North Korea, behind the frontlines, but nothing official.

If anyone seriously think about throwing gauntlet against US world order and learn in UA, one would need serious military mission collecting data, attached to military of "friendly" side, either in form of observers or even "advisors" like in Cold War- and this is much more than normal military attachee in embassy sending analysis to Central. I have little doubts such missions in UA exists from several Western states, but so far we didn't notice any constant presence of official advisors on Russian side. They could be there, naturally, and we simply don't see them...though it is improbable NATO intelligence wouldn't know about them either.

Even if they exist and are good as hell in analysing this war, it dosn't automatically mean such knowledge would be used  by military of beforementioned third country. Technicialities, like qualities of some more advanced missile or AFV armours- perhaps (though it doesn't seem we gave UAF anything particulary fanciful). But rest? To use practical knowledge and implement it, like coordination in CC nets on battlefield, operation procedures etc. is not an easy task even for largely coup-proof militaries like Chinese Army.

If people use analogies with this war to Civil War in Spain- where is Legion Condor and similar units? Thousands of advisors on both sides? None state can seriously draw conclusions as to future war and remodel its military only by watching Youtube videos.

I have no doubts China is taking notes on this war, just like we are.  The levels of C4ISR and impact have to be noted alone.  I do not know if they have sent observers but I would not be surprised in the least.  I suspect China owns any space based ISR and may be sharing with Russia, just like the US is doing with Ukraine.

I suspect we are going to see an AI/precision arms race after this war as all sides see what is happening.  Any military that does not keep up could find itself obsolete overnight.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

That is just insane.  Forget situational awareness and they cannot swing the gun.  Sure it may stop FPVs but now gets lit up by ATGMs and artillery.

It has to be really bad for vehicles if the Russians are trying out stuff like this.

The worst part is that it is open in back, so it isn't even particuraly protective against a competent FPV pilot. I assume they tried closing it up, and found that either the crew was in danger of suffocation, or the engine experienced severe overheating. I could be the ever popular both.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

The worst part is that it is open in back, so it isn't even particuraly protective against a competent FPV pilot. I assume they tried closing it up, and found that either the crew was in danger of suffocation, or the engine experienced severe overheating. I could be the ever popular both.

And the thermal signature has to be seeable from freakin Mars.  That whole metal thing will heat up from the exhaust.  It is basically a big glowing shield.  

[Battlefront.com]

53 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Just wanna point out rare metals aren't that rare, just that the cost of discovery has meant its not worth it till now. The U.S has found lithium deposits that may be the largest in the world, one under the Salton Sea in California, one on the border of Nevada - Oregon. 

https://alumni.berkeley.edu/california-magazine/online/californias-salton-sea-could-be-the-mother-lode-of-lithium/

https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/lithium-discovery-in-us-volcano-could-be-biggest-deposit-ever-found/4018032.article

 

That's nothing.  11 million tons (estimated) is sitting in my backyard (so to speak) and is infinitely easier to get at than undersea sources:

https://www.boston.com/news/environment/2023/01/11/maine-couple-fights-to-mine-lithium-deposit-billion/

In fact, the owners have already excavated nearly 800,000 pounds of it under an exploratory permit.  But getting a full mining permit will likely require the State Legislature and Governor to sign off as Maine has some of the toughest mining regulations in the world.

As has already been discussed, Erwin did not do his research very well.  What he did was concoct a story to fit his predisposed point of view.  Not a very good story, but hey... that's what you get when you don't do real research.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

What ticks me off is that he is going to go off and sulk now, muttering about how we are all “high on copium” and “smother alternative views.”

Yes.  And it's quite common.  I see it here on this Forum all the time.  The patterns of behavior are nearly identical, which indicates there's a cognitive issue in the mix.

Such people have all the time in their world to conduct "research" and to present it, but they always seem to have very little time to defend it if challenged by people that are better informed.  Some just drop out without another peep (until they show up again later), others go off in a huff often saying they are leaving because they don't want to waste their time arguing with [fill in derogatory term].  It's as intellectually dishonest as it is factually incorrect, but it keeps their ego sheltered and that's really all that matters.

The behavior pattern, and the psychosis behind it, is readily adaptable.  My experience is people fitting the above description are not purveyors of a single delusion.  Poke enough and you find that it's more of a lifestyle than an interest in a specific issue.

What really complicates our society is that people who fancy themselves to be "researchers" ally themselves with others that have have the same shortcomings.  Instead of questioning each other's world views, they instead form a group identity where they are brilliant and everybody else is an insufferable twat of some sort or another. 

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

Can we please lay off beating on our brother Erwin at this point? I think people made their points on the merits, let's turn down the ad homs.
...For those who forgot life before Feb 2022, he's put a *gigantic* amount of effort into this community.

[LongLeftFlank]

11 hours ago, Holien said:

Just fixed that for you..

This war is giving the West a serious edge against China and its Russian knock off copies...

We can see what is working and we can re-tool and re-arm quicker than China.

This war has stopped China dead on its plans to invade Taiwan as they have seen how badly a 3 day war can go.

We are getting real time updates on what works and does not as we are embedded with Ukraine.

How close are the Chinese military with Ukraine?

Do you think China can magically change it's whole military based upon the Russian knock off kit?

The weapons America had in store have now been disposed of at a fraction of the cost it would have needed to

The kit was designed to deal with Russia and less so China so it is being used for what it was bought for.

American jobs and economy is winning because we are buying more of the kit and it works!!!

You really do need to think through this - It is a no brainer for America!!

Finland / Estonia / Poland are not going to stop giving support any time soon.

France and Germany are another thing but currently show no sign of backing down...

As much as I would love this all to be true, due to the Western innovators' need to raise funds, the Chinese are now able to beat (and undercut) any newly commercialised Western product into mass production by stealing all the required IC under a guise of investor due diligence.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/owners-china-based-company-charged-conspiracy-send-trade-secrets-belonging-leading-us-based

And this is not the TU-144 'Concordski' or Yak-36 'Forget'er' we are talking about any longer. The 'knockoff' products of companies like Xiaomi (which I can get out here in Asia, as well as in Europe) are increasingly comparable to their Western originals in reliable functionality, if not always in service life.

Again, as much as I'd like for that not to be true, we must be realistic about this.....

[Kinophile]

https://thediplomat.com/2024/04/what-chinese-navy-planners-are-learning-from-ukraines-use-of-unmanned-surface-vessels/

Ukraine USV lessons are being absorbed worldwide...