How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Next Russian assault group was delivered to Berdychi on BMP-1M... and all they remained there

 

[Haiduk]

Northern outskirt of Kharkiv. Crews of two UKR "Bureviy" MLRSs (UKR modernized BM-27 "Uragan" on "Tatra" chassis) made a stop to rest and buy a coffee on refueling station nearby. Russian drone spotted them and targeted with Isander-M both launchers and security car, standing too close each other. Again a carelessness cost valuavle equipment and, alas, maybe servicemen lives. 

 

Edited April 7 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR troops could push back Russians (11th air-assault brigade) from the forest on eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar. Reportedly, Russians yesterday managed to seize several houses in the eastern part of the town, but were thrown back by counter-attack. Despite this Russians continue assault actions and increased number of airstrikes and artillery shellings of Chasiv Yar.

Kostianntyn Mashovets believes, the same "Russian summer offensive" more likely will took place on Donbas, not on Kharkiv ot somewhere else. Russians long time have been claiming a coming on administrtative borders of Donbas as one of SMO goals. 

For success Russians need to capture Sloviansk and Kramatorsk agglomeration. In own turn for this they have to capture (or at least come to Kostiantynivka town) on the south and elimynate Siversk bulge on the north. Current Russian assaults on Chasiv Yar direction are obvious intentions to approach Kostiantynivka to take initial positions for Sloviansk offensive. On Siversk direction Russians also began more intese assaults not only in Bilohorivka area, but on more wide section of the front. Though, these assaults look more like probes.

Edited April 7 by Haiduk

[Kraft]

Quote

On 7 April 2024 a video showing Russian soldiers shooting three captured Ukrainian soldiers was posted on a Telegram channel

 

Edited April 7 by Kraft

[Haiduk]

Jet drone over Belgorod oblast. Russians claim this is British "Banshee-80"

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR helicopter landing in Kozinka, Belgoprod oblast in March, filmed by Russian drone. Alas, writing "Border guard from the hell" (TG name) in the center of screen often hides helicopters.

 

Speaking of the incursions into Russia... what is the latest?  I've not heard much about them for a couple of weeks.  Did the Russian Legion forces withdraw?

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/C5dlfbiLx_y/

Ukrainian kamikaze drone hit Russian truck but failed to explode

 

God is giving them one last warning to go the bleep home...

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Next Russian assault group was delivered to Berdychi on BMP-1M... and all they remained there

 

Good timing of the attack.  It took out most of the Russian squad when they were in range of small arms fire, which finished off the survivors.

The odd thing to me is that the guy on the front left who fell off looks to have no right trouser leg, as if he was already wounded.  If that's true, maybe they were withdrawing and got ambushed?

Steve

[Haiduk]

The story with Tsar-EW-tank got a continue.

After Russian attack was repelled, additional recon showed that this tank hadn't critical damages and can be moved to our positions as valuable source, because almost all Russian portable anti-drone EW assets were mounted which just were possible. It's turned out our FPV damaged only targeting system, then a tank tracks stuck in barbed wire with attached AT-mines, tank lost control, crashed into disabled BMP and stopped - the crew abandoned tank. 

During several nights two "Azov" tankers have been providing reparing works. They unlocked driver's hatch, because a gun was directly under it, then they changed a 70 kg battery, which brought from own positions - this work should be done by three men, but they did it together. Then they unraveled and cut the wire on the tracks and removed a mine under the tank. All this in the nights and not in calm situation - one night Russians tried to recapture tank, sending a group on the bikes (!!!), but it was eliminated. 

After all "Azov" tankers turned on engine and drove to own positions in Terny. But on the route the tank in the darkness fell into bomb crater, the driver hit head and lost consciousness. Fortunately he came to senses soon and could drive out the crater. Tank arrived to Terny, where the crew already awaited Serhiy "Flash" - admin of FB/TG channel about EW and communication systems. On the photo below he already researhes trophy equipmnent

    

 

Edited April 7 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

With no way out of a worsening war, Zelensky’s options look bad or worse

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/06/ukraine-war-zelensky-options/

Where are these articles coming from? Is the war worsening? In what way?

It all part of the Russian propaganda/disinformation push. They are a whole lot better at that than they are actually fighting.

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The story with Tsar-EW-tank got a continue.

After Russian attack was repelled, additional recon showed that this tank hadn't critical damages and can be moved to our positions as valuable source, because almost all Russian portable anti-drone EW assets were mounted which just were possible. It's turned out our FPV damaged only targeting system, then a tank tracks stuck in barbed wire with attached AT-mines, tank lost control, crashed into disabled BMP and stopped - the crew abandoned tank. 

During several nights two "Azov" tankers have been providing reparing works. They unlocked driver's hatch, because a gun was directly under it, them they changed a 70 kg battery, which brought from own positions - this work should be done by three men, but they did it together. Then they unraveled and cut the wire on the tracks and removed a mine under the tank. All this in the nights and not in calm situation - one night Russians tried to recapture tank, sending a group on the bikes (!!!), but it was eliminated. 

After all "Azov" tankers turn on engine and drive to own positions in Terny. But on the route the tank in the darkness fell into bomb crater, the driver hit head and lost consciousness. Fortynately he came to senses soon and could drive out the crater. Tank arrived to Terny, where the crew already awaited Serhiy "Flash" - admin of FB/TG channel about EW and communication systems. On the photo below he already researhes trophy equipmnent

    

 

EPIC! This has to be a movie eventually.

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Speaking of the incursions into Russia... what is the latest?  I've not heard much about them for a couple of weeks.  Did the Russian Legion forces withdraw?

Steve

There are no active actions, just visits of small recon groups and shellings. Local population in border areas of both sides mostly abandoned own villages and towns. Russian Kozinka and some other villages got heavy damages. In Graivoron from 6500 of population remained 1500. So, border areas of Belgorod turned out almost in grey zone. Belgorod still under attacks almost each day. This is not Kahrkiv level, but humanitarian cituation in the city slightly is getting worse. People are leaving the city. This is not significant numbers, but i noticed already, Belgorod oblast is one of few prospering regions of Russian except Mosscow and St.Petersburg. Several days ago UKR UAVs hit one of largest chicken complex in Belgorod oblast. So undermining economical and social life in Belgorod oblast can in long term influence on some aspests of life in Russia. Also combat activity in border regions make more hard deploying of Russian troops, which can conduct some demonstartive actions toward Kharkiv to attract our troops from there. Russians havn't enough forces to capture the city.

[Haiduk]

Karma is working. Because of ruining of the dam, Orsk city in Orengurg oblast (on the border with Kazakhstan) is flooded. Local refinery with 6,6 mln.tons year output is halted. The water is coming to Orenburg city. Local authorities thinhking about partial evacuation of citizens. 

Edited April 7 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Military storages (not ammunition presumably) are burning in Ufa city, Bashkortostan Republic.

 

[billbindc]

Interesting.

[Haiduk]

Russian ideologist Dugin under heavy mushrooms..

Russian city is a mother of all cities. Jerusalem will be Russian or it will not exist at all. And his majesty Kitavras will rule there. That what it says secret Pigeon's Book. The Book of depth. Russian tsar is a tsar for all tsars. 

Kitavras is a mythical creature (derived from "centaur"), which appeared in Moscovian apocryphal tales of 14-15th century about Solomon king. Pigeon's Book known since 15th century, there is tough mix of early Christian apocryphical texts cosmologia, influenced by Moscovites folk mythes and some paganism elements. This book was revered in some Orthodox groups. The book claims that "White Tsar" (white not so in modern sense, but as "true, orthodox, Russian" as countray to "pagan, tatars, mongols tsars") is a tsar over tsars and "Holy Rus' " is a mother of all lands.  

Edited April 7 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

HUR made a statement their agents blew up oil pipeline near Azov city in Rostov oblast on 6th of April. The pipe maintained pumping of the oil to terminals in Azov sea port.

 

[Beleg85]

Crocus saga and very accurate comic. How, tell how one cannot think in stereotypes about Russian state apparatus :

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian city is a mother of all cities. Jerusalem will be Russian or it will not exist at all. And his majesty Kitavras will rule there. That what it says secret Pigeon's Book. The Book of depth. Russian tsar is a tsar for all tsars. 

Kitavras is a mythical creature (derived from "centaur"), which appeared in Moscovian apocryphal tales of 14-15th century about Solomon king. Pigeon's Book known since 15th century, there is tough mix of early Christian apocryphical texts cosmologia, influenced by Moscovites folk mythes and some paganism elements. This book was revered in some Orthodox groups. The book claims that "White Tsar" (white not so in modern sense, but as "true, orthodox, Russian" as countray to "pagan, tatars, mongols tsars") is a tsar over tsars and "Holy Rus' " is a mother of all lands.  

Still worth to note he wrote "tsar" twice not by capital letters; he is getting out of from. Also, I think it is more "Dove Book" in English, but Pigeon sounds nicer.

Edited April 7 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

article on the War Zone showing no damage at Russian airbase despite claim by UKR of 6 AC destroyed/8 damaged.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/no-major-damage-seen-at-russian-air-base-after-drone-attack

Just shows again that we should always be sceptical of claims until they are verified.

Yup, whenever there is reports of damage from long distance strikes my first thought is "show me a picture or it didn't happen".  But to Ukraine's credit, most of the time their claims are later verified within reason.  This one, unfortunately, looks to be an exception.  Right up there with shooting down two IL-76 loaded with paratroopers

Steve

[kimbosbread]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

There are no active actions, just visits of small recon groups and shellings. Local population in border areas of both sides mostly abandoned own villages and towns. Russian Kozinka and some other villages got heavy damages. In Graivoron from 6500 of population remained 1500. So, border areas of Belgorod turned out almost in grey zone. Belgorod still under attacks almost each day.…
So undermining economical and social life in Belgorod oblast can in long term influence on some aspests of life in Russia. Also combat activity in border regions make more hard deploying of Russian troops…

That is fantastic; I would consider this more than “no actions”. I just wish they had some more people to continue the action further northwest on the road to Kursk.

It would be amazing if they could get better AAA coverage, but I assume any missiles they can bring with them are limited to 7km altitude and below. Presumably further long range drone strikes and F16s over the next 6-12 months will reduce the FAB threat to where these incursions become much harder to stop and Ukraine has a nice DMZ.

[panzermartin]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-06/china-is-providing-geospatial-intelligence-to-russia-us-warns?embedded-checkout=true

Behind paywall, but the sum is that we slowly see official evidence surfacing of the role China is playing to keep Russia in the fight. 

The hypothesis that somehow they will be backtracking afraid of business disruption with the West was false. 

China is an almost unlimited X factor imo, both in resources, production capacity and levels of involvement. 

This makes the Ukraine war a lot more complicated. 

[Haiduk]

"Magyar" claims his unit, using EW system, managed to supress and land Russian "Lancet"

 

Edited April 8 by Haiduk

[Tenses]

Taking a few steps back and looking at overall situation, what exactly do you think can really change the tide of this war? Beacuse even with these recent massive mechanized losses the pressure is pretty much the same and we know that when BMPs, BMDs and tanks will not be available, Ruzzians will just go on foot. We currently wait for(and Ukrainians die in the meantime):

- ammunition to artillery/more artillery: This will provide support, which is badly needed, especially in defence, might actually stop most of the attacks but not for long due to penetration of Russian ISR up to and beyond artillery positions.

- F16s : Just as above and might also have some impact on air defence. I don't see much usage in offence deep behind the frontline, definitly can provide good very close to the frontline air support. If will be properly used, with superior Ukraine ISR, can be hard to deal by Russian anti-air. The minus is that every mistake will be extremely costly and irreplacable(mainly the pilots, planes to the lesser degree).

- air defence, anti tank weaponry replacements : this should assure keeping the quality of both of these on current, in my opinion, pretty high level

Apart from these, which should come from the "West" exclusively we have the drone war, but is it possible to achieve quality+quantity=pressure of drone swarms to actually push back? I see that as currently the only option to do that but I am not sure, if gaining that high pressure is actually possible. It was analyzed here many times that using classical means for counteroffensive is generally death sentence.

And if pushing back is not possible what are we looking at here? Either there is a plan to turn the tide or not, I would not count on Russia running out of something, even if it looks like it. It went for the ammo to North Korea, it went for drones to Iran, it produces a lot by itself, if real necessity arises I don't belive it won't get support from China in a meaningful way. And I think it is clear to everyone that China has no bottom, the current "Games of Hegemony" is exactly because of that.

So, do we have a clear target here or just "wait and see"?

 

[Holien]

15 minutes ago, Tenses said:

, do we have a clear target here or just "wait and see"?

Yep, Ukraine to win just has to stay in the fight...

What game plan does Russia have to win this?

Time is on the Ukrainian side, they just have to keep fighting.

Afghanistan is the model to look at...

If and it's a big IF Ukraine can weather this year and generate enough new force they might have options next year...

In the meantime keep poking the Bears eyes out and making it costly (oil refineries) for Russia to continue...

[Erwin]

2 minutes ago, Holien said:

Yep, Ukraine to win just has to stay in the fight...

What game plan does Russia have to win this?

Time is on the Ukrainian side, they just have to keep fighting.

Am sorry to point out that it is the opposite.  Russia already controls large swathes of Ukraine with valuable minerals (primarily needed for EV's) which with China gives them a huge longterm strategic advantage (assuming that we do not switch from EV's to a better source of power like hydrogen).  All Russia has to do is sit on that land and hold out.  

Meanwhile, the west has growing economic and social problems and can ill afford a longterm commitment to keep the Ukraine govt financed (currently we are paying for all the govt salaries) and the military reinforcements.  As in Vietnam and Afghanistan, vast sums of aid/cash are being stolen by the Ukrainian oligarchs who are about as corrupt as the Russian ones.

What game plan does Ulraine have to win this other than the forlorn hope that Russia will self-destruct.  Per my own research last year that is very unlikely to happen:

It's debatable whether we in the west are exhausting Russia and China or if they are exhausting us (depleting our weapons reserves).  China is the main foe.  China is akin to Nazi Germany in the 1930's with Russia playing the hapless Italians bogged down in Albania.  The Ukraine war is giving China (and others) excellent training on how the west fights and what weapons systems we deploy.  That is a major reason imo why we are understandably reluctant and slow to provide the best weapons to Ukraine.  

 

[photon]

5 minutes ago, Erwin said:

It's debatable whether we in the west are exhausting Russia and China or if they are exhausting us (depleting our weapons reserves).  China is the main foe.  China is akin to Nazi Germany in the 1930's with Russia playing the hapless Italians bogged down in Albania.  The Ukraine war is giving China (and others) excellent training on how the west fights and what weapons systems we deploy.  That is a major reason imo why we are understandably reluctant and slow to provide the best weapons to Ukraine.  

 

This is such a weird take to me as to be somewhat incomprehensible. Like, we seem to be operating in different factual universes. Italians bogged down in Albania? How is that an apt comparison?

What particular weapons systems are we depleting the reserves of? We've been culpably stingy with our second and third tier weapon systems. Your points contradicts one another. If China is learning to fight a western military that doesn't use any of its airforce, any of its modern deep strike capability, any of its naval capability, any of its modernized mech force... learn on, I guess?

On the contrary, everyone is learning that the shape of the battlefield has changed, and changed in ways that seriously favor the defender. The PLAN has to be looking at the videos of the SeaBaby double taps and thinking hard about what their losses crossing the Taiwan strait would look like.

Everybody is looking at the rise of low-energy precision fires and wondering how totally that's broken mechanized mass.

Everybody is looking at the totally illuminated battlefield and wondering how complete their ground-to-space ISR system is.