How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

In fairness...they're never meant to, no? I get the strong impression the pending F16 fleet is intended to push back the RuAF and hit operational level targets, not individual ATGM teams.

Correct.  Think about it this way.  The few aircraft Ukraine has, plus its air defenses, has kept Russian aircraft out of Ukrainian territory since almost the start of the war.  Over time Russia has had to pull back even further due to base attacks and better air defenses.  Helicopters being the biggest victim of this shift.  Adding F-16s will further reduce Russian options and will, hopefully, have some impact on glide bomb attacks.

Kinda like the ground war, people should have their expectations properly calibrated BEFORE they start to be used.  Like Leo2s and the summer's counter offensive, over estimating impact means proportional disappointment when reality deals fantasy a blow.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Speaking of ze Germans:

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-is-exploring-the-possibility-of-localizing-panzerfaust-3/

[chrisl]

On 2/19/2024 at 7:59 PM, LuckyDog said:

Have we discussed the possibility of AI analysis of the drone camera feeds to complement other intelligence feeds? Good enough data could even track vehicle and soldier movement. The geolocation and time stamps could enable predictive observation (resupply/build up) and potentially predictive artillery fire. The feeds don't look very high resolution but I've seen AI pick out PPE use on similar sized (relative to the screen) objects. Any thoughts?

Many (most?) of the feeds we see are downsampled/lossily compressed by the social media sites that they get posted on. The original feeds are probably HD and have a few cm resolution at 1 km, and better at closer.  So if they have a data clearinghouse it's probably possible to extract quite a bit of intel.

There are lots of other things sucking up intel, like babushkanet, cell networks, various NATO planes covered in antennas that circle along the borders, a zillion satellites that passively look and listen in the visible, IR, and radio.  Synthetic aperture radar sats.  If someone had enough money to buy up all the commercial space data over Ukraine, they could probably get a nice picture of where small units are moving on relatively short time scales.

Edited February 21 by chrisl

[danfrodo]

23 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Speaking of ze Germans:

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-is-exploring-the-possibility-of-localizing-panzerfaust-3/

I never could hit anything w these in CMSF2.  My guys would fire at ~400m and it would miss by 100m, up, left right, down.  I hope they are better in real life.  

But they look damn cool. 

Edited February 21 by danfrodo

[Grigb]

Murz posted that he had a difficult talk with his military superior (brigade commander) and removed the post under direct order/threat. Next, he wrote something that may be considered a suicide note. But he did post something that looked like soldier's report. Looking into it.

[Aragorn2002]

8 hours ago, poesel said:

China would never ever do anything that jeopardized international waterways. This would directly cut into their trading revenue and they would bleed themselves.

Not out in the open, no. But there is enough proof that they made their choice, like joint naval drills with Russia or sending military equipment to Putin. I don't believe in Chinese 'neutrality'. Weakening the West is definitely to their advantage. But like before with Russia,  the masses still need to realize that China is just another ruthless and dangerous dictatorship and even more threatening. Not that the evidence is hard to find, but no one is as blind as he who doesn't want to see. Germany is still investing heavily in China, so they belong to that category. Same as Holland and most Western countries, I suspect. Long way to go.

 

Edited February 21 by Aragorn2002

[Kinophile]

 

[Kinophile]

Estonia on guard. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Murz posted that he had a difficult talk with his military superior (brigade commander) and removed the post under direct order/threat. Next, he wrote something that may be considered a suicide note. But he did post something that looked like soldier's report. Looking into it.

Well now, this seems to answer the question I asked a few pages ago about why Murz was venturing to be critical of Avdiivka's losses in such a direct manner.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Fenris said:

UKR  unable to strike RU as they form up

Back to the discussion about drones replacing artillery... this is a great example of how far things need to go for that to happen.   Three things to note:

1.  The speed of getting an artillery round on target is far faster than sending even one drone from even the most forward position.

2.  One drone would only make this unit, maybe, suffer a casualty or two and a loss of momentum.  An artillery round, if placed even reasonably close, could have potentially effectively wiped out the attack.

3.  Area effect matters.  If you have 10 men scurrying in different directions it will take quite a bit of effort to track and smash all of them with drones.  A couple of artillery rounds, on the other hand, is a much easier solution.

The obvious solution, and it's one being worked on by the labcoats and eggheads, is to have a large loitering munition with dozens of self guiding munitions.  That is just about the only way to duplicate the effect of artillery.  I don't know how far away we are from such a weapon, but for sure it's closer now because of this war than it would have otherwise been.

Steve

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well now, this seems to answer the question I asked a few pages ago about why Murz was venturing to be critical of Avdiivka's losses in such a direct manner.

Steve

If he moves in the kind of ultranationalist/DPR circles I think he does, he has probably seen 75% of the people he knew two years ago die or get crippled for life in the "Special Military Operation". He wouldn't be the fist person to go around the bend in such circumstances. Especially as he is better placed than almost anyone to understand how unlikely Russia is gain anything that matters from this war, at least relative to the bill.

[Grigb]

Quote

[beginning of the cited document]
To the Chief military prosecutor of the Russian Federation Petrov V.G.

Appeal

I, [the applicant's full name can be viewed in an electronic copy of the document sent by the soldier to the GWP via the website on February 6, 2024, incoming number - 405086], serving on mobilization in regiment 1487, unit mail 95411 in the 2nd battalion of the 6th company of the 1st platoon in Donetsk, under the command of the 1st Army Corps of the DPR army, I ask you to conduct review for the following reasons:

1. Provision of weapons and transport

From 01/19/2023, the moment of arrival in the SMO zone to the present day, our battalion does not have a single AGS or mortar to carry out effective offensive actions.
There is also a complete lack of transport for offensive actions or evacuation and transportation of people.

2. Rotation

At the moment, less than 30% of the personnel remained in the regiment, and to this day there has been no rotation or replenishment of the regiment's personnel.
Most of them are wounded, killed or missing.

3. Medical care

My own example, I have a concussion, I came to the the regiment's medical officer about my injury, to what this serviceman said that the concussion was not considered a wound and did not put me on the list of wounded after completing a combat mission.

So I went to the hospital on my own, and I was prescribed medicines that I [had to] purchased at my own expense and a battalion medic gave them to me.

When after treatment it was time to get a [category] 100 certificate of injury in the [HQ] dugout, the regiment's medical officer refused, so I turned to the [local] doctors, and they gave it to me.

At the moment, I have received a payment from the President of the Russian Federation and from city G.St. Petersburg, but I arranged these payments myself with the help from the DPR army soldiers who took me to hospitals and for medicines.

I (the applicant's full name can be viewed in an electronic copy of the document sent by the fighter to the GWP via the website on February 6, 2024, incoming number - 405086), did not pass the VVC [military medical commission] after being wounded, and I did not have any rehabilitation (even rest from service).

There are a lot of such cases not registered byt the regiment's medical officer [looks like med officer has order from the top not to do that]. There are a lot of wounded in the regiment, many servicemen were sent after concussion or shrapnel wound without medical comission  and rehabilitation right back into battle where many died.

4. [Temporal] Transfer of the military regiment to other units

In November 2023, the regiment's command transferred 300 people to the command of the PMCs Veterans [sub part of PMC Redut - RU MOD analogue of Wagner], at the moment almost all of them are killed or wounded. PMCs Veterans command [and control] us in all sectors of the Avdiivka front. The message [we got] that they are the chiefs here and it comes from the command of the 1st Army Corps of the DPR army, in particular, [from the officer with] the call sign “Crimea".

These military personnel of the PMCs “Veterans,” and I'm not afraid to use following word, are RABBLE that consist of former prisoners, drug addicts and looters, hiding behind the backs of the mobilized of our regiment. They “carried out assault operations” without being present on the ground. After we occupied a tactical frontier, they came, shot a video report, took weapons, armor plates from the dead, everything valuable, both from the servicemen of the Russian Army and from the enemies, and left to the "grey" zone leaving us on the line of contact.

(end of the cited document)

The report explains how RU army "manages" to remain in the fight thus far.

P.S. Indeed, Murz left full blown suicide note. Except to get a feel of the mood.

Quote

Today I talked to a man who, knowing me a little, started right away with words “You can't change that [now]. When the elections are held, the changes will begin.” I did not tell him the meme “Putin and expensive gasoline – 20 years of solving the problem", I let him check it himself. Check this meme, Comrade Colonel.

Today, Comrade Colonel, on your orders, I was forced to delete a post from my telegram channel “They write to us from Yiannina.” And you were forced to give this order by your command, relying on the good old army collective responsibility. If he doesn't delete it, we won't give the supplies. Shells. Copters. New tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. And your command, was forced to do it by political prostitutes led by Vladimir Solovyov, who piss themselves to come and pull the trigger [themselves]. Well, I'll do it myself. I'll shoot myself if no one dares to take on this trivial matter. And you will be given tanks and copters.

It turned out that I cannot serve under your command, under the command of a man who took over a decapitated brigade in a critical situation in a critical area and “took care of” the situation, I cannot serve you and, at the same time, tell the truth, to demand that the military prosecutor's office in St. Petersburg listen to the soldier who was shell-shocked near Avdiivka. And, perhaps, to other soldiers like him, who have seen everything and know everything, but cannot tell because they are intimidated.

And this is how RU army learns from mistakes.

[Grigb]

Murz colleague reports that Murz is no more.

[Grigb]

Meanwhile Ru soldier Guzenko aka 13th about Shoigy

Quote

...Blyat, it doesn't amuse me anymore.
This poor Avdiivka was being taken for almost ten years, eight years of positional warfare, and two years of bloody assaults, you'll be ****ed up [knowing how many] people were killed, Vovka from my team is still lies at unknown place somewhere there, almost a year on the Avdiivka fortifications, they couldn't find his body. For how long it will contine?

This one [Shoigy] should talk about reindeer husbandry against the background of the yurt, but he thinks he's a Subedai.

 

[Offshoot]

32 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Estonia on guard. 

 

With regard to being open about Russian methods, a series of billboards in Tallinn reminds people about Russkiy Mir in a dramatic, creative and in-your-face way.

Gallery: Exhibition showing destroyed public space on display in Tallinn

 

[Grigb]

Nesmyan (civilian Girkin) about sanctions

Quote

As you can see, Chinese banks have stopped accepting payments from Russian banks under Western sanctions. However, non-sanctioned banks may still transfer money to and from China - there are no restrictions here. So for now, the end of the world [for RU] has been postponed.

Difficulties with payments occur in Turkey (oil companies have not been able to receive their money for three weeks) and in the UAE. Restrictions are imposed everywhere, and of the same kind as in China - not extremely strict, but greatly complicating life and increasing the number of links in the chains of intermediaries.

This is the strategy of sanctions. When the Russian leadership tells stories that the Russian economy was not destroyed, it is lying - in reality, no one is doing this. It is the exact opposite. But [they] make it as costly as possible and reduce budget revenues, depriving this very leadership of resources - sanctions do this this very well. The increase in costs is accumulating, incomes are falling, export volumes are falling due to increasing inefficiency, and, accordingly, production is falling. The main thing is not to collapse [it quickly], but [slowly and] gradually.

The frog is being cooked slowly, that's why she says that everything is okay, everything is fine with her, she even feels warm.

Economy - Russia is wining on this one

[holoween]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I never could hit anything w these in CMSF2.  My guys would fire at ~400m and it would miss by 100m, up, left right, down.  I hope they are better in real life.  

But they look damn cool. 

They are awefully modeled in SF2.

The muzzle velocity is far too slow and they are less accurate than at4s somehow even though they have proper optics for aiming and rangefinding rather than just iron sights.

[Grigb]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If he moves in the kind of ultranationalist/DPR circles I think he does, he has probably seen 75% of the people he knew two years ago die or get crippled for life in the "Special Military Operation". He wouldn't be the fist person to go around the bend in such circumstances. Especially as he is better placed than almost anyone to understand how unlikely Russia is gain anything that matters from this war, at least relative to the bill.

Murz was a prominent member of the DPR and ultranationalist movement. Indeed, he has seen a lot of dead comrades. And not all of their deaths were glorious. For example, last year, his close buddy Nazi Bereg (the infamous guy with the UKR scull) was murdered by Wagnerites during an attempted robbery (Wagnerites were ambushing and robbing mobiks returning from frontlines). The murder was covered up by Wagnerite higher ups (rumors were that Prig himself).

On the other hand, Murz, was a die-hard left-wing RU Nat. For him, it was a total war against Western capitalists who cruelly murders innocent Russians. He would never stop. 

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

 

P.S. Indeed, Murz left full blown suicide note. Except to get a feel of the mood.

And this is how RU army learns from mistakes.

"Morale is strong, brothers"

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Murz colleague reports that Murz is no more.

Holy crap.  We on this Forum talk about people "flaming out", but this is taking it to the next level.

I will miss Murz's reports, however the world is better off without him.

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

4 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:

My impression is that Ukraine is attempting to replicate how western nations attack enemies through air superiority, but they are doing it with missiles and drones instead (and less effectively than the US air force would be doing it).  The target choices though do resemble what the US hits with the various air campaigns over the years.  Air Defense systems and installations.  Russian naval targets.  Interdiction of supply depots and lines of communications.  Command and control centers.  Individual leaders.  Artillery systems through counterbattery and rocket fire (HIMARs).

Russian artillery is primarily being used to support the front lines from what I understand, and the Russians don't seem to have the same targeting priorities as Ukraine does.  This seems to be a traditional Russian approach to warfare.  Even in WW2 The Germans said that Soviet air and artillery was primarily focused on targets within twenty miles of the front lines.  German troops could move with near total freedom beyond that distance unlike in the west when movement was interdicted at almost all distances from the front lines.  Sure, Russia does do some coordinated and large scale missile attacks at Ukrainian strategic targets, but they don't appear to be very effective at it.  

Ukraine doesn't need to gain full air superiority, but if they want to launch a successful offensive at some point, I think they will need to keep the Russian air force and helicopters at bay at the point of attack through a combination of F16s and modern Air Defense systems.

The problem with this approach is while it seems to work really well, it is very expensive and it needs a lot of PGMs. There's a lot more JDAMs in the world than Storm Shadows and GMLRSs.

This is where the West should come in, but I'm not sure it's happening. The attempts to make cheap to produce "mass market" PGMs like the GLSDB or various drones are step in the right direction I think. But if Ukraine had order of magnitude more of them, we might have been currently discussing rebuilding now that the war ended.

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I just banned FlemFire.  I can't see how much higher he floats above his high horse, because the clouds obscure his position.  It's could be why he can't carry on a real discussion.  Gotta shout to cover all that distance.

Hilarious. If I ever get banned, please do it with as funny message.

[FancyCat]

Well at least we know there's more than a hint of truth to Russian losses from Murz, if he couldn't be talked out of issuing a correction or apology or some sort to rebuke his losses assertion.

[Kraft]

Nonsense meme

[Pete Wenman]

 

and his translated suicide note

 

 

Edited February 21 by Pete Wenman

[_Morpheus_]

Yesterday Ukrainian Army used HIMARS for attack on 36th Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade, that were in formation at the training ground in Donetsk region. Outcome: > 60 dead