How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

29 minutes ago, poesel said:

It would be interesting to know which missiles they get. But obviously they won't tell for good reason.
I predict a short flurry of downed Russian planes and then an end to the (mass) use of glide bombs from the Russian side.

I am hoping for that as well, but I am not sure how this could happen.

Russian glide bombs are tossed from the distance of 50 km to front line on the Russian side. AFAIK Su 34 (and as of late also Su 24 unfortunately) approach high and fast from a direction roughly perpendicular to the frontline and at the furthest possible distance, they make the toss - pull up and release the bomb. Then they immediately reverse direction and head for home. Apart from the height and distance being higher, the technique is roughly similar to Russian helicopters tossing unguided rockets. 

This means, that in order to counter those attacks Ukrainian aircraft would have to be able to reliably shoot down Su 34 and Su 24 on their approach flight to the bomb release point (say 70 km behind the front on the Russian side?). Assuming the Ukrainian aircraft are F-16 with AIM 120 C they theoretically could do it, the missiles having a 100 km. range. However, F-16 would be fighting from big positional disadvantage. In order to hide from RUS SAMs and air-to-air patrols, the F-16s would probably be approaching very low. Therefore, once they release the missiles they would be firing from low up, at targets first fast approaching and then fast egressing, close to the far end of AMRAAM maximum range, from the frontal aspect of the target and then in a stern chase.  Would this scenario still yield a significant enough probability of kill? I do not know, but there are a lot of factors decreasing it compared to the theoretical optimum.

While doing this, Russian air to air patrols are a non-trivial risk factor, even now from time to time they account for Ukrainian aircraft with the R 37s. Also, while trying to hit Russians 70 km on the other side of the front, the Ukrainian F16 would have to pop up in Russian SAM envelope. In light of those risks, I do not think Ukrainians would be willing to risk their few precious F-16 if the probability of killing the glide bomb carriers is low. So I am afraid that your scenario might not happen in real life. But maybe I am wrong somewhere in this reasoning, or the Ukrainians surprise me with something. Hopefully they will. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

4 hours ago, chrisl said:

Here’s a question: What would it take for drones to mostly replace artillery?

Costs down, weight of explosive material up. Tube artillery in this war resembles a forge with thousands of very myopic but very strong smiths constantly hammering away all around them. It is best used on the offence to batter down fortifications and buildings, and on the defence, to set up fire concentrations on the attacking units and barrages in front of them so that they cannot go forward.

You need to be able to deliver via drones the HE equivalent of, say, 5000 155mm rounds per day without bankrupting yourself to think about replacing tube artillery in this war.

Edited February 19 by Maciej Zwolinski
brain still asleep

[hcrof]

5 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Costs down, weight of explosive material up. Tube artillery in this war resembles a forge with thousands of very myopic but very strong smiths constantly hammering away all around them. It is best used on the offence to batter down fortifications and buildings, and on the defence, to set up fire concentrations on the attacking units and barrages in front of them so that they cannot go forward.

You need to be able to deliver via drones the HE equivalent of, say, 5000 155mm rounds per day without bankrupting yourself to think about replacing tube artillery in this war.

I wonder if precision artillery rounds like Excalibur are going to get rarer - a drone can do the same job for a tiny fraction of the price. But dumb artillery, especially mortars, will be around for a while. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

3 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I wonder if precision artillery rounds like Excalibur are going to get rarer - a drone can do the same job for a tiny fraction of the price. But dumb artillery, especially mortars, will be around for a while. 

That is likely. Precision artillery rounds are more resistant to countermeasures so they may still be needed for specialist purposes against particularly hard or valuable targets. But they can be purchased in lower number.

[Holien]

33 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

But maybe I am wrong somewhere in this reasoning, or the Ukrainians surprise me with something. Hopefully they will. 

I hope so, the Glide Bombs seemed to be the key in breaking the Ukraine defences.

The loss / reduction of artillery to break up attacks didn't help.

 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Do you refer to any existing APS or write in an abstract way (that it would be good if someone developed an APS with such capability in the future?)? Also, does the Ukraine actually use any APS now? 

We know that RU is working to upgrade Arena-M to combat drones and loitering munitions. However, they reportedly encountered a problem with the [slow] speed of the drones (whatever that means). We know Arena filters out objects with slow speeds. It appears that after they stopped doing that (to include drones), Arena got overwhelmed with objects to process, and given the RU difficulties with electronics, they were unable to overcome it quickly.

Also, AFAIR a Russian-speaking Israeli military historian recently mentioned that Rafael was looking for ways to tweak their APS to combat drones.

I have not seen any info regarding UKR APS. Like at all. Probably they are developing something, but it is far from production. 

[Carolus]

It's a goddamn massacre in the air

 

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

37 minutes ago, Carolus said:

It's a goddamn massacre in the air

Alas, to late to help the defenders of Avdieyevka

[Holien]

Is that now 5 aircraft in recent days?

[The_MonkeyKing]

8 minutes ago, Holien said:

Is that now 5 aircraft in recent days?

5 "claimed"

But yeah, someting is up. Ukraine surging air defence after Russia has started surgeing its air power.

[zinz]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/19/7442486/

Another loophole is closing 

[Fenris]

6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

5 "claimed"

But yeah, someting is up. Ukraine surging air defence after Russia has started surgeing its air power.

I would think they're helping to cover to the retreat, yeah.

Might also be the Sukhoi's are coming closer as their targets move away.

[Beleg85]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

5 "claimed"

But yeah, someting is up. Ukraine surging air defence after Russia has started surgeing its air power

Usually they start to fall when somebody in AFU command takes risk of bringing Western AA launcher closer to frontlines for a few hours/days. It is Russian roulette on Ukrainian side too, though; I think in final days of Bakhmut battle Russians also started loosing planes out of a sudden, so perhaps it's tactics to scare off further advances or muscovite pilots simply overestimating their red margin of error. Perhaps Avdiivka bulge was too risky to put such priceless platform there, and now frontline flattened a little (on other side, ground given up in Avdiivka seems too small to make significant distance).

[Maciej Zwolinski]

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Usually they start to fall when somebody in AFU command takes risk of bringing Western AA launcher closer to frontlines for a few hours/days. It is Russian roulette on Ukrainian side too, though; I think in final days of Bakhmut battle Russians also started loosing planes out of a sudden, so perhaps it's tactics to scare off further advances or muscovite pilots simply overestimating their red margin of error. Perhaps Avdiivka bulge was too risky to put such priceless platform there, and now frontline flattened a little (on other side, ground given up in Avdiivka seems too small to make significant distance).

This time the aircraft seems to be hit much to the south of Avdieyevka, so either the attack is unrelated to the battle, or the Ukrainians managed to find an approach route from Avdieyevka to e.g. one of the Crimean airports and set the ambush somewhere further on the way.

I hope the reports on the Ukrainian SAM ambush on consecutive days mean that they finally dedicated one of the Patriot units as a roving battery and we will be hearing about it more often. This will sound callous, but their military utility when guarding civilians in Kiev or Odessa was limited, whereas trying to make glide bombing risky for Russians is extremely important at this moment. Even in light of the huge risk the Patriots would be located and attacked.

[Grigb]

A bit of Murz hysterics (he was talking to close friend)

Quote

(old friend's name), copters are guys' lives. The Ministry of Defense is decreasing purchases. Putin is being lied to that [RU MOD] have everything. People are dying. Constantly. Massively. UKR [drones] are in the air. Everywhere and always.

Avdiivka - 16,000 of our 200 [dead]. Sixteen ****ing thousand. [that's RU losses in] Afghanistan in ten years. Four months of terrible ****ing meat [assaults] with columns of burnt vehicles.

You don't see this on TV, because Gusinsky [Eyltsin era RU media magnate] is in Spain, NTV [previously opposition TV channel owned by Gusinsky] does not exists any more, Tanya Masyuk (here I ****ed up, she's Lena) [infamous opposition reporter] can't interview the UAV operator of the AFU, who just killed another Russian soldier with a [cheap] copter just for 40,000 rubles [423 USD], who is glad he did it and will do it again now. [Murz basically argues that Ru Nats back home are unable to comprehend harsh reality because there is no longer opposition television to present them the inconvenient truth from the perspective of the RU enemy.] 

The Russian celebration of Avdiivka's capture is in full swing.

Edited February 19 by Grigb

[Grigb]

31 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Usually they start to fall when somebody in AFU command takes risk of bringing Western AA launcher closer to frontlines for a few hours/days. It is Russian roulette on Ukrainian side too, though; I think in final days of Bakhmut battle Russians also started loosing planes out of a sudden, so perhaps it's tactics to scare off further advances or muscovite pilots simply overestimating their red margin of error. Perhaps Avdiivka bulge was too risky to put such priceless platform there, and now frontline flattened a little (on other side, ground given up in Avdiivka seems too small to make significant distance).

I think Avdiivka itself was not very important to UKR. 

I feel we got too fixated on Avdiivka. I believe the intent of the RU command was a significantly more ambitious, which explains the UKR command's unwillingness to commit large forces to the defense of Avdiivka. RU generals are fond of ambitious encircling operations. What if RU intended to attract UKR reserves to the defense of Avdiivka, smash them there, rupture UKR defenses, and simultaneously attack from Avdiivka, Zaporojye, and possibly Bakmut (according to UKR reports, RU has begun to push there as well) to encircle and destroy a significant portion of AFU formations?

It explains:

• Why RU kept significant mech force not far from Avdiivka
• Why UKR command committed so few lightly armed forces to the defense
• Why Abrams and Bradly equipped units did not counter-attacked RU units when they started to advance toward Lastochkino
• Why Patriot arrived only now
• Recent UKR reports from Rabotny that RU are preparing something big

Adviivka's battle was most likely a prelude. The main battle started just now.

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

1. Support Ukraine to continue to fight, even if that means sending what little we have left ourselves.

2. Rearm like mad, damn the economical consequences, no matter how painful they will be.

3. Make it clear to our societies that this is only the beginning of a very dark time.

4. Prepare for large scale war, because that's what we're heading for one way or the other. +

5. Stop acting as if we have a choice in the matter.

6. Kill them all.

Forgot the most important one. 

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

5 "claimed"

But yeah, someting is up. Ukraine surging air defence after Russia has started surgeing its air power.

They claim 6 total. But if the Russians shot one of their own Su-35s, that would be 5 by Ukraine.
 

However, Russian telegrammers are debating whether they might have shot down more of their own.

Edited February 19 by cesmonkey

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I feel we got too fixated on Avdiivka. I believe the intent of the RU command was a significantly more ambitious, which explains the UKR command's unwillingness to commit large forces to the defense of Avdiivka. RU generals are fond of ambitious encircling operations. What if RU intended to attract UKR reserves to the defense of Avdiivka, smash them there, rupture UKR defenses, and simultaneously attack from Avdiivka, Zaporojye, and possibly Bakmut (according to UKR reports, RU has begun to push there as well) to encircle and destroy a significant portion of AFU formations?

I would not give Russia that much credit.  They likely blew an entire Div on this fight.  Militarily it really makes little sense and there was a near zero chance of big encirclement, they would have know this months ago.  This whole thing smells political.  Poppa P needed a “big win” before the election in March so he can point to their “righteous cause and inevitable victory” so he pressured the GOs to continue this little sideshow.  And hell we are all talking about it, complete with people freaking out that this is “the end”, so likely playing on western nerves as well.  So here we are (again) until the next “critical” town along the frontline emerges and we can spend 4-5 months watching it being taken in slow motion.  Then the UA will do a c-offensive at some point and take back another small town but that won’t be the drive to Paris so the same people will come out and cry “futility!”  In the end the front will not really move and net exchanges of territory will be close to 0%.  Attrition of both sides will continue and will until this thing freezes, or something breaks.

 

[chuckdyke]

Guess who said this. World War 2 was just finished. "I have no particular desire to understand them except to ascertain how much lead or iron it takes to kill them... the Russian has no regard for human life and they are all out sons-of-bitches, barbarians, and chronic drunks."

[omae2]

3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Costs down, weight of explosive material up. Tube artillery in this war resembles a forge with thousands of very myopic but very strong smiths constantly hammering away all around them. It is best used on the offence to batter down fortifications and buildings, and on the defence, to set up fire concentrations on the attacking units and barrages in front of them so that they cannot go forward.

You need to be able to deliver via drones the HE equivalent of, say, 5000 155mm rounds per day without bankrupting yourself to think about replacing tube artillery in this war.

I don't think that you need that amount of explosive. The main reason why arty is so loaded because it needs to cover an area, drones pin point things. Tube arty is good for laying smoke as well, but i think mlrs are better for arty with drones. The drones can do the basic things you would use arty, against entrenched infantry, armored assaults, special weapons like atgm they simply much better than arty. So i would say that once they will have autonomy they will make company and platoon size arty support obsolete other than the smoke laying capability. With that i mean 81mm-120mm mortars. Above that its really about three things. Mining with arty, destroying a grid with amassed fire and fortification destruction.

Now two out of the three is better to be done with mlrs and the third can be done via planes. So i would say in the long term i don't think that howitzers and mortars gonna have a future, but mlrs systems will stay.

[Grigb]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I would not give Russia that much credit.  They likely blew an entire Div on this fight.  Militarily it really makes little sense and there was a near zero chance of big encirclement, they would have know this months ago.  This whole thing smells political.  Poppa P needed a “big win” before the election in March so he can point to their “righteous cause and inevitable victory” so he pressured the GOs to continue this little sideshow.  And hell we are all talking about it, complete with people freaking out that this is “the end”, so likely playing on western nerves as well.  So here we are (again) until the next “critical” town along the frontline emerges and we can spend 4-5 months watching it being taken in slow motion.  Then the UA will do a c-offensive at some point and take back another small town but that won’t be the drive to Paris so the same people will come out and cry “futility!”  In the end the front will not really move and net exchanges of territory will be close to 0%.  Attrition of both sides will continue and will until this thing freezes, or something breaks.

 

Meanwhile UKR colleague of Mashovets reports that RU become active along the whole front and are not planning to make operational pause after capture of Avdiivka.

Quote

Taking advantage of this weakness [UKR arty lack of shells] and the total dominance of tactical aviation, which uses Guided bombs without restriction, the RU command probes and make pushes through almost the entire front line.

Instead of an operational pause, which logically should have occurred after the capture of Avdiivka to restore losses, the RU command chose the path to squeeze the maximum out of its units while it was possible.

It certainly looks like The main battle started just now.

[Grigb]

In other news - Whoever blew Nost Stream up very conveniently (for RU) left one pipeline undamaged and ready to work.

Quote

MOSCOW, February 18. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin belives that it is possible to launch the surviving branch of the Nord Stream gas pipeline in a week...

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

I think Avdiivka itself was not very important to UKR. 

I feel we got too fixated on Avdiivka. I believe the intent of the RU command was a significantly more ambitious, which explains the UKR command's unwillingness to commit large forces to the defense of Avdiivka. RU generals are fond of ambitious encircling operations. What if RU intended to attract UKR reserves to the defense of Avdiivka, smash them there, rupture UKR defenses, and simultaneously attack from Avdiivka, Zaporojye, and possibly Bakmut (according to UKR reports, RU has begun to push there as well) to encircle and destroy a significant portion of AFU formations?

It explains:

• Why RU kept significant mech force not far from Avdiivka
• Why UKR command committed so few lightly armed forces to the defense
• Why Abrams and Bradly equipped units did not counter-attacked RU units when they started to advance toward Lastochkino
• Why Patriot arrived only now
• Recent UKR reports from Rabotny that RU are preparing something big

Adviivka's battle was most likely a prelude. The main battle started just now.

These are sensible theories, however it is dubious if even Russian generals at this point of campaign would be so reckless to believe they can fire out some big encirclements now. Probably even Putin, as much as indolent militarly he is, get that. They of course can dream about pincers closing on Konstantinovka, something like this:

But making this happen is dreampipe, unless AFU really run dry totally out of shells.

My explanation would be Ukrainians kept light forces in Avdiivka simply cause of potent fortifications that multiplied their value- there was no need to put more mechanized units in forming cauldron. There were some tank reinforcements stationed near by from strategic reserve, btw. but they decided to use 3rd Brigade on mostly light vehicles to secure corridor. Makes sense.

[Grigb]

In other news

Quote

According to the Russian Federation Chamber of Commerce and Industry, new vehicle brands are likely to enter the Russian market, particularly from Iran and India. African manufacturers are also expressing interest. Nevertheless, China remains the dominant player thus far, according to Izvestia.

Nesmyan (RU civilian Girkin) comment

Quote

Who would have guessed five or seven years ago that Russia would be forced to open its market to African automobiles, not as exotics, but out of pure need. However, after the Chinese Moskvich [previously famous RU car brand now apparently manufactured in China], there is nothing to be astonished about.

War is going according to the plan. Western sanctions do not work.