Haiduk Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Zeleban said: Good news. Hero of Ukraine Colonel Sukharevsky has been appointed Deputy Commander-in-Chief for the use of unmanned systems. He is known among the troops on the positive side as the commander of one of the best and most effective brigades - the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade. All the drone related bloggers claim that this will definitely improve the efficiency of using drones. In the general photo he is on the far left And the other deputy of Syrskyi became brigade general Mykhailo Drapatyi. He will be responsible for soldiers training. Epsisode of 9th of May 2014, with his "flying BMP" breaking throw separatists barricades in Mariupol became a one of meme of this war. In that time Drapatyi was in a rank of major and was a commandr of mech.battalion of 72nd brigade. Since 2016 to 2019 he commamded 58th mot.inf. brigade. Edited February 11 by Haiduk 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Rare episode of UKR fighter jet uses AA missile, likely to shoot down the drone 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 hours ago, The_Capt said: Didn’t the US pass a law where a president cannot unilaterally pull out of NATO or somesuch? Oh ya, here it is: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/congress-trump-proofs-nato-1.7059768#:~:text=It says no president shall,spelled out in the bill. Because Trump in a second term would somehow be bound by the rule of law?? Must the TheCapt's famous sense of humor. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 hours ago, The_Capt said: Trump is a master at getting nothing done and blaming someone else. Trump is a master at maniupulating stupid people. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Probus Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 The Hungarian President resigned! Here comes Sweden into NATO! Wow! He was pressured to resign after pardoning a child rapist/abuser. Imagine that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, Probus said: The Hungarian President resigned! Here comes Sweden into NATO! Wow! He was pressured to resign after pardoning a child rapist/abuser. Imagine that. She, not he. President Katalin Novak resigned. Prime minister Viktor Orban is still prime minister. No idea how much political power the president has in Hungary's system. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Probus said: He was pressured She was Orban is not a president. This is about Katelin Novak. She has only representative power. But despite this she was pro-Ukrainian unlike prime minister Edited February 11 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOS:96B2P Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 10 minutes ago, Probus said: The Hungarian President resigned! Here comes Sweden into NATO! Wow! He was pressured to resign after pardoning a child rapist/abuser. Imagine that. I think the actual leader of Hungary is Viktor Mihály Orbán who is Prime Minister. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) CNN claims Russian recruited 15 000 Nepalians to Russian army: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/asia/nepal-fighters-russia-ukraine-families-intl-cmd The package included at least $2,000 salary a month and a fast-tracked process to obtain a Russian passport. After analyzing the TikTok profiles of 10 Nepali men who travelled to Russia to join the army, CNN used satellite imagery to geolocate them to the Avangard training center, a military academy outside of Moscow. The soldier described his fellow academy cadets as coming from across the global south. He cited Afghan, Indian, Congolese and Egyptian classmates, among others. Class photos from Avangard posted on social media show dozens of what appear to be South Asian soldiers with native Russian instructors. And here is likely "classmate" of Nepalians - the mercenery from Sierra-Leone was captured by UKR soldiers of 46th air-assault brigade on Maryinka direction Except countries named above there were spotted a precense or were captured merceneries from next countries Somalia, Syria, Palestine, Myanma, Lybia, China, N.Korea (though they could be confused with other S.Asian nationality) Edited February 11 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Probus Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 15 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said: I think the actual leader of Hungary is Viktor Mihály Orbán who is Prime Minister. Sorry guys. I got over excited. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) Edited February 11 by Kinophile 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NamEndedAllen Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 7 hours ago, The_Capt said: Didn’t the US pass a law where a president cannot unilaterally pull out of NATO or somesuch? Oh ya, here it is:tical posts unfilled. In assessing USA politics, unlike in your vast military experience and knowledge that contributes so much here…you are missing the forest for the trees. THAT was political theater. Analysis already laid this all to rest. Yes, the President may not unilaterally FORMALLY withdraw from NATO. But so what? As Commander in Chief and the executive, Trump or anyone like him can simply order troops and any and all branches to not participate in NATO activities and exercises. He can refuse to spend whatever Congress appropriates for NATO, withdraw representatives- and of course use one of his favorite bludgeons to our government from last time: leave critical posts and civilian offices unfilled. Oh, and remember his order to pull all USA troops out of Germany? The one Biden undid early in his term? Europe would be waving goodbye to them and likely other contingents as well.. While I am not predicting that in Trump’s next term as President he absolutely WILL exercise all of these powers, he CAN exercise executive and military authority to effectively remove the USA from meaningful NATO membership. His relationship with Putin may affect to what degree he exercises this authority, and whether or not he attempts to further undermine Ukraine’s struggle than the elected Republicans already have. Not to mention this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/30/trump-dictator-2024-election-robert-kagan/ “Let’s stop the wishful thinking and face the stark reality: There is a clear path to dictatorship in the United States, and it is getting shorter every day. *** Like people on a riverboat, we have long known there is a waterfall ahead but assume we will somehow find our way to shore before we go over the edge. But now the actions required to get us to shore are looking harder and harder, if not downright impossible.” EDIT: I now see the venerable billindc already wisely corrected the NATO topic - a LOT of posts to wade through when I got here this morning! Edited February 11 by NamEndedAllen 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 hours ago, omae2 said: Can you elaborate please cause i have no clue what you talking about nor about the triggering nor about the bridge i should be under. You can do it by pm cause its seems to me that these are some sort of insults that meant to derail the discussion so we should not bother others with our irrelevant dispute. We'll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 25 minutes ago, Haiduk said: CNN claims Russian recruited 15 000 Nepalians to Russian army: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/asia/nepal-fighters-russia-ukraine-families-intl-cmd The package included at least $2,000 salary a month and a fast-tracked process to obtain a Russian passport. After analyzing the TikTok profiles of 10 Nepali men who travelled to Russia to join the army, CNN used satellite imagery to geolocate them to the Avangard training center, a military academy outside of Moscow. The soldier described his fellow academy cadets as coming from across the global south. He cited Afghan, Indian, Congolese and Egyptian classmates, among others. Class photos from Avangard posted on social media show dozens of what appear to be South Asian soldiers with native Russian instructors. And here is likely "classmate" of Nepalians - the mercenery from Sierra-Leone was captured by UKR soldiers of 46th air-assault brigade on Maryinka direction Except countries named above there were spotted a precense or were captured merceneries from next countries Somalia, Syria, Palestine, Myanma, Lybia, China, N.Korea (though they could be confused with other S.Asian nationality) I thought his nationality was kind of interesting. I know foreign mercenaries played an important role in the civil war in Sierra Leone. One of the most well known PMCs from that war was Executive Outcomes. Anyway, never thought I would see Mercs from Sierra Leone showing up and fighting in a war in Europe. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Increasingly more cities of RF hold actions demanding return of soldiers from war in Ukraine - ISW (msn.com) In various cities of the Russian Federation, protests by relatives of mobilized Russian soldiers are gaining momentum, despite previous efforts and attempts by the Kremlin to suppress and block any potential development of a broader public movement across the country on the eve of the presidential elections in March, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). On Saturday, February 10, Russian opposition publications SOTA and Mobilization News released footage showing members of the Russian public movement Way Home laying flowers and gathering near monuments in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Vladivostok, and Yekaterinburg. They call for the demobilization of their relatives. Mobilization News reported that members of the movement also visited the campaign headquarters of the Russian presidential candidate Vladislav Davankov in Moscow and handed over letters to his team urging demobilization. The Institute for the Study of War also reminded that last week the Russian authorities attempted to censor the protest by members of Way Home near the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow and at the adjacent Manezhnaya Square. "The extent and complexity of the Kremlin’s efforts to limit the rise of relatives’ movements in support of Russian soldiers underscores the Kremlin’s desperation to shut down these movements, particularly ahead of the March 2024 Russian presidential elections," the report said. On February 3, a protest took place in Moscow organized by the wives of mobilized soldiers to mark 500 days since the start of the partial mobilization declared by Putin in September 2022. The Kremlin subjected the protest to harsh censorship, and some participants were detained by the police. In mid-January, one of the largest protests in Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine occurred in the Republic of Bashkortostan. Demonstrators rallied in support of a local activist accused of "fanning interethnic enmity." The last significant protests in Russia were after Putin's announcement of the so-called "partial mobilization" in September 2022. At that time, protests occurred in various regions of the Russian Federation. In the capital of Dagestan, Makhachkala, people were mass-arrested during the rallies. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 6 hours ago, The_Capt said: Follow up on urban warfare conversation: https://wavellroom.com/2023/04/28/urban-is-not-exceptional-a-response/ What I am really interested in is whether whatever is happening in warfare re: defensive primacy is showing indications in urban warfare as well. Of course I missed another big one from this war, Kyiv: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022) Inconclusive but we can make some safe assumptions that attacker losses were higher (likely much higher) than defenders. My sense is that urban warfare is not only slower, it has higher intensity and therefore much less tolerance for mistakes. In a quick historical review when defenders lose, they lose very badly. And when attackers screw up they get mailed mercilessly. Even when done right urban combat is intense in resources, time being a major one. I do not think urban warfare “is just another operation”. It is a specialized terrain that takes unique equipment, tactics, training and planning considerations. I find contradictions in the “it is not special” camp: https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-2023-urban-warfare-experts-christmas-wish-list/ The authors declare that we need to stop thinking about urban warfare as a “special environment” and then advocate for a NATO Center of Excellence on Urban Warfare. Two things do ring true in all this:1) likelihood of urban warfare is going up do in large part to massive increases in urban terrain worldwide and 2) whatever is driving shifts in open warfare will very likely have direct impacts on urban warfare as well. Jack Watling's book makes a very strong case for open country and urban warfare being extremely different. To the extent that they should be conducted by completely different units with completely different TO&Es. Open country should focus HEAVILY on ISR and fires. Large urban areas require huge quantities of well trained heavy infantry, and short range firepower. He does mention that this is extremely expensive, but so is losing. It is worth pointing out that even in Ukraine we haven't seen heavy fighting in the heart of a truly large city. In Kyiv the Russians didn't get that far, and most of the places in the East that have seen heavy fighting have had populations in range of tens of thousands. There are a lot of places around the the planet where things could get extremely contested that involve cites with populations well into the millions. I don't think we have really wrapped our minds around how ugly that could be. 6 hours ago, FancyCat said: Well that’s where Putin’s long winded interview comes in, which is a framing shifting narrative to slowly move the American voter away from seeing NATO as an inherent structure of American dominance to one of American overextension and waste in Russian sphere of influence. Trump’s framing of the 2% gdp target is just one part of it. He’s long voiced disappointment and discontent with insufficient “protection money” attained from Europe. (At the end of the day, he has shown all the hallmarks of a dictator who believes the government serves at his word and its resources his to allocate and enjoy)I think this is actually something Putin with his mafia like structure of Russian government would be intimately familiar with and able to exploit and manage vs Trump. We have seen how this occurred via Ukraine, Trump seeking political dirt on Biden and leveraging aid to Ukraine for it. U.S. President has enough control over the armed forces to lose a war if he sets his mind to it. Unfortunately The nutcase faction of the Republican party is making extensive plans to eliminate the guard rails that made Trump's first term merely unpleasant instead of disastrous. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/11/us/politics/trump-nato.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/us/politics/trump-2025-overview.html?searchResultPosition=10 A second term would be much worse, perhaps orders of magnitude worse. Edited February 11 by dan/california 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: And any challenges to Trump's decisions, or lack thereof, would have to be settled in court. That could take weeks, at best, years at worst. And even then all Trump would have to do is continue to stonewall whatever he was obligated by the courts to do. More time lost. And throughout this there would likely be an impeachment process started. If the Republicans hold the House that would be unlikely to happen. Which would mean more court battles. To put it another way... the damage Trump can do to US foreign and military policy is nearly endless, the ability to correct for it is very limited while he is in office. Steve 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 6 hours ago, The_Capt said: So you see my point - the whole thing is a game for domestic US consumption. Not some deep foreign policy or strategy. Trump is a master at getting nothing done and blaming someone else. Major muscle movement in Europe will only come if he can look good doing it. Some sort of rapprochement with Putin angle, but of course even he is not dumb enough to trust Putin now. True, ditching NATO is way above Trump level of competence, and reshaping it somehow for Pacific interests is impossible. But this time it can indeed be different. Note absence of any kingmakers in his entourage...guys like Bannon or Pompeo were hardly likeable, but they were not dumb and were thinking in terms of raison d'etre, in their own ways. This time it seems he will build on his nucleus family as chief advisors. Something like 2 months ago I happened to watch one political show in Russian TV dedicated solely to Trump's family. On surface they were just telling the story of filthy rich oligarchs familiar to their audience (like Moscow ones, with appropriate scandalous stories about gold and luxury- read: "he is similar to ours"), but the level of attention directed to Donald Jr. was quite outstanding- and this was pure political stuff about his future career, clearly something that makers of this piece were puting hopes for. They treated him as sovereign, concious politician on his own rather than son of his father, and this sentiment (or rather: assessment) seem to be shared by people close to Kremlin. I think Russians know perfectly well where political nerves of future power may be. Trump did burned his fingers on various politcal advisors and occassionally even played Caesar betrayed by people he trusted, so he will now likely be more distrustful to guys from "outer ring", further loosening influence of system on his decisions. This can make a noticable difference for this term compared to previous one, especially in foreign policy. Edited February 11 by Beleg85 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiggathebauce Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/10/2024 at 1:20 AM, Zeleban said: https://ria.ru/20240209/simonyan-1926316813.html Not only Gerashchenko. Margarita Simonyan, one of the main Russian propagandists, complains that Tucker Carlson did not start a conversation with Putin about conservative values (after all, this is the main idea of Carlson’s viewers). Thus, even loyal Putin propagandists criticize this interview. Be that as it may, even Carlson himself said that he was not yet ready to comment on this interview. Which indicates his negative impression. Didn't tucker give Putin an opening to discuss his religiosity, asking him if he saw gods presence in world events, and to the disappointment of religious rightwingers in the west, he said no? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said: Didn't tucker give Putin an opening to discuss his religiosity, asking him if he saw gods presence in world events, and to the disappointment of religious rightwingers in the west, he said no? the interview didn't fail because Tucker Carlson is an incompetent propagandist, it failed because Putin is incapable of taking advice or direction, and NOBODY can make him 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 16 hours ago, Kinophile said: There's something about Syrsky that feels somehow more 'modern'. I'm not concerned (not that I've any right to be and my opinion of ZSU staffing is worth less than zero). But of the two, I suspect in my bones that Syrsky could pull off transforming the front line from how the Russians want to fight into how the Ukrainians can and should fight. That is, I suspect that he will shift the tactical structure on the Ukrainian side from orienting on Lines (trenches, cities etc) to dominating spaces/volumes, avoiding static fixed points for RUS artillery to pound. Currently, while RUS has the initiative I think its because the ZSU is fighting in the way that Russia needs it to in order for Russia to be able to get the initiative. The ZSU's current configuration values the same things as the Russians - lines on maps, place names, etc. Geography and overlayed political mapping, islands of resistance joined into a web of linear static priorities. If the ZSU begins to fight in a different ways, like say around Kiev, valuing different things from the RUS and willing to trade what it values less for what it now values more, then they could achieve operational balance before unbalancing the Ivan. Part of this idea is that the ZSU could deepen the front line zone, ignoring trenches, never staying put and constantly moving within a much broader battlespace. Flowing instead of standing. Utilizing C4ISR to constantly outflank and corroding the 1,2,3 echelons of Russian front lines all at once. IE simultaneously conduct attack-defence in the same zone, at the same time, where attack is defence and defence is attack, in contrast to the simplistic Russian approach focused on progressive subjugation of a series of points and lines. Mobility would not be forced into or on the Russians but provided to the Ukrainians within their own "side" of the battle space. Blur the operational contact area between the forces and rapidly corrode tactically. Zaluzhny can see the value of drones and their danger, within his existing viewpoint of military force. Sysrky, I hope, can see a new paradigm - or at least the need and path to one. I think he will initially focus very heavily on the training funnel, shifting to a smarter, more responsive and intuitive process. This will cost him time and space but provide him with better forces in the medium/long term, forces that can handle and expand a new tactical and operational mindset. Good comment on the actual war, many thanks, a rarity over the last 10 thread pages. ...I guess only time will tell, but if Shanahan can reinvent football with dense formations, perhaps Syrsky can reinvent tactical warfare using some species of the opposite? The 49ers Defy Modern Football. It’s Why They’re in the S̶u̶p̶e̶r̶ Taylor Bowl. Edited February 11 by LongLeftFlank 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 hours ago, The_Capt said: I am sure the average political voter did not get that from a history lesson by a 70 year old Russian autocrat. There are two levels here in US politics - the theatre and reality. There is always tension between the two. Trump is going to make big shows but cannot change reality. He keeps power by playing a shell game between the two with a base far too ignorant to see it. We know this. All his bombastic statements and turbulence of his first term basically went nowhere. The system absorbed most of it. Executive orders were overturned etc. The real damage he did was internal. Damage to US democracy. He was so desperate to stay in power that he incited illegal violent action. He eroded the faith in US democracy. Everything outside of that is a sideshow…that goes back to that. So, sure he will play around with Putin to be contrary. He will make noise, just like last time, but in the end even he sees reality. Reality is Russia is dangerous and he will see opportunity to leverage the fear of thst danger for political gains. He will talk big, do symbolic crap but will avoid hard decisions at all costs. I think this is a big misread of what is happening and going to happen. Trump was limited in his first term by a several things: 1. He did not actually expect to win the race and so didn't come into office with a coherent program. 2. He didn't have any idea of how things worked and still saw value in working somewhat within the system. 3. He believed that he actually had alliances within the conservative movement...starting with the Federalist Society...who would safeguard his hold on office. Trump today is no longer that politician. He knows that he doesn't have allies in the conservative movement but also that they don't control the party any more. He does. He knows that the Pentagon won't willingly help him achieve power and he is embittered towards the generals he would be dealing with in a second term. He also is explicitly saying...along with potential VP candidates like Vance and Stefanik...that he will ignore Supreme Court decisions he doesn't agree with. Finally, at Heritage/Claremont/etc a coherent and nakedly fascist program is being articulated which includes pulling out of NATO, mass seizure and deportation on day 1 and worse. Trump's supporters in DC are making no bones about it. This is the big one. This is the emergency. Nobody should imagine that it will resemble the first term. 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) News from Finland. Edited February 11 by Harmon Rabb 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 hours ago, Haiduk said: And the other deputy of Syrskyi became brigade general Mykhailo Drapatyi. He will be responsible for soldiers training. Epsisode of 9th of May 2014, with his "flying BMP" breaking throw separatists barricades in Mariupol became a one of meme of this war. In that time Drapatyi was in a rank of major and was a commandr of mech.battalion of 72nd brigade. Since 2016 to 2019 he commamded 58th mot.inf. brigade. I remember that clip. I remember thinking - "The Ukrainian Army isn't f**king around. Pucker up, Rebs". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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