How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

4 minutes ago, JonS said:

China seems happy to use Russia as a cat's paw to mess with those things, and maybe thereby gain some maneuver space in the Pacific. But I doubt they care about Russia, or the outcome of the war, per se. Russia is failing and falling - it has been for a while, and the last couple of years has accelerated that. China might as well cash in while they still can. Sell their stuff at high prices, buy Russian stuff at low prices, and figure out WTF they're going to do about Siberia if/when Russia disintegrates.

I don't think China sees Russia as a failing country. They see it as a fellow autocratic country and ally against the world order led by the USA, and they (ok, "he" - Xi Jinping) wants to prevent Russia from collapsing due to this war. Probably China makes a pretty penny off their help, too, but I think they want Putin's Russia to continue.

[Carolus]

6 minutes ago, poesel said:

IMO, Ukraine just learned that it is ok with the west to retaliate to Russia in kind (as long as no western weapons are used). That would change the character of this war.

We don't know what's chirping on the official channels.

Maybe Zelensky just received some panicked telegrams from Washington, Paris or Berlin about what the hell Ukraine is doing.

I don't think that's the case - but we have to acknowledge that beyond what we see and beyond what is being communicated by officials openly, there is also a lot of communication by people with very high paygrades that we will never be privy to. 

It might as well have been the other way round and Biden just sent "Go wild Vlod".  

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Carolus

[Carolus]

11 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't think China sees Russia as a failing country. They see it as a fellow autocratic country and ally against the world order led by the USA, and they (ok, "he" - Xi Jinping) wants to prevent Russia from collapsing due to this war. Probably China makes a pretty penny off their help, too, but I think they want Putin's Russia to continue.

If some politically savy Chinese expats are to be believed, the view of Chinese leadership on Russia is actually very different than what we in the West would believe based on rational parameters.

Despite the incredibly obvious massive power difference in favour of China, the CCP sees Russia still as their big daddy, in terms of ideological tradition. They yearn for father's approval and present him what they drew in kindergarten today. They cower when uncle Putin stomps his foot and feel relieved when he bestows them with a kind word.

It is strange, but it is apparently a thing. Something something communist psychoanalysis and fatherlessness.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Carolus

[Haiduk]

56 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

This is what I'm talking about. Why work in this direction, it’s better to come up with a couple of new curse words for Russians. Typical position of stupid and lazy hohols.

Why stupid Allies just didn't work with population of Axis countries so as they uprise against own nazi dictators, why didn't invite them, didn't surround them by care and smiles, but instead dropped hellish tons of bombs on their heads? So, inhumane...

By the way USSR conducted successful bombing campaing against Finland in 1944, forcing them to change the side. .

56 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Both the USA and Great Britain in the 40s were completely barbaric states in the modern sense of the word. Great Britain was a colonial country, and racism flourished in full force in the USA. 

Oh... I feel a smell of leftism...

Edited December 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

14 minutes ago, Carolus said:

If some politically savy Chinese expats are to be believed, the view of Chinese leadership on Russia is actually very different than what we in the West would believe based on rational parameters.

Despite the incredibly obvious massive power difference in favour of China, the CCP sees Russia still as their big daddy, in terms of ideological tradition. They yearn for father's approval and present him what they drew in kindergarten today. They cower when uncle Putin stomps his foot and feel relieved when he bestows them with a kind word.

It is strange, but it is apparently a thing. Something something communist psychoanalysis and fatherlessness.

I don't think there's any truth to that.

[keas66]

31 minutes ago, poesel said:

Let's just assume that Ukraine bombed Belgorod and killed civilians as a by product. That was what has been reported by the mass media here.

The reaction (here): nothing.

Is that the same everywhere? I am really surprised that the public takes such an attack with a shrug. It is not the first time Ukraine attacked Russia directly but not with this dimension.

IMO, Ukraine just learned that it is ok with the west to retaliate to Russia in kind (as long as no western weapons are used). That would change the character of this war.

The IDF is pretty much doing what it likes right now - do you care much ?  - and you expect the West to condemn some minor revenge attacks  by Ukraine on Russia ? Unless said attacks threaten somehow the stability of the  relationship between the West and  Russia/China  I can't see anyone caring much at all . Not sure why some folks on this board think the Rubicon has somehow been crossed .

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

I don't believe that Russians can overthrow Putin themselves - only when they will feel a lack of food, like in 1917. But Russians will elect the same like a Putin, who will offer "make a Russia great again". Those, who have a bravery to fight with system too few. And most of them are in jails or in RDK or LFR - and these units Russian "liberals" hate very strong, because they show them all their pathetic and cowardness "we can't uprise, because they will beat us and throw to jails". If Russian is still "hesitating" after two years of war - he is just hidden imperialist under liberal skin. Russia deserve for worst scenartio. Even this can give a chance to heal their nation from inner slavery, snobbery, chavinism and imperialism.  

The problem here is that world is not at World War and global order is shaking, but not collapsing. Therefore, comparisions with apocalyptic bombings of Germany or Japan miss their mark. Not that I would complain too heavily about Ukrainians paying Russians in kind- to hell with katsaps- but AFU simply lacks practical means of "waging destruction" on Russians you often seem to envision. Several dozens cardboard drones a week, while inventive, will hardly make a difference, even if they fly straight into residences of muscovite oligarchs. And occassional casualties from artillery in border cities are actually perfect from Putin standpoint. Real missiles like Storm Shadows are in short supply and when new fighters become operational, they will likely be used on military targets.

10 minutes ago, keas66 said:

The IDF is pretty much doing what it likes right now - do you care much ?  - and you expect the West to condemn some minor revenge attacks  by Ukraine on Russia ? Unless said attacks threaten somehow the stability of the  relationship between the West and  Russia/China  I can't see anyone caring much at all . Not sure why some folks on this board think the Rubicon has somehow been crossed .

Yup, albeit Israelis have massive advantage in this respect, living where they live they can do "more". Western audience seem to grow thicker skin over past two years when comes to accepting grim realities of war. If only AFU will not make a habit of purposefully killing civilians, I doubt there will be some wide reaction.

 

Btw. latest Russians version, slightly changed from previous one, is that Belgorod was hit almost exclusivelly by debris of succesfull AA defence against Olchas and Vampires. Cluster munitions we observed were supposed to fall out of falling missile. Thus, imperial honour is saved.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/12/30/chasti-sbitih-raket-popali-pogorodu-minoboroni-rfpriznalo-chto-tragediya-vbelgorode-stala-rezultatom-raboti-rossiiskoi-pvo-a117625

https://www.interfax.ru/russia/938653

Zakharova made a conference that blamed...guess whom? Naturally United Kingdom, for planning this attack. Crimean War 2.0.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Beleg85

[poesel]

10 minutes ago, keas66 said:

The IDF is pretty much doing what it likes right now - do you care much ?  - and you expect the West to condemn some minor revenge attacks  by Ukraine on Russia ? Unless said attacks threaten somehow the stability of the  relationship between the West and  Russia/China  I can't see anyone caring much at all . Not sure why some folks on this board think the Rubicon has somehow been crossed .

I think you misunderstood me. I was not talking about my opinion (for the record: all for it) but the public opinion.

A year ago, the German public would have gone nuts about a missile attack of Ukraine on a Russian city. 'Escalation!', 'WW3 imminent!', 'Don't poke the bear!' etc...
There were some raised eyebrows when Ukraine did those little drone attacks. And now missiles, and the reaction is: nothing.

So I wanted to hear about the reaction in other countries.

If true, I think this is a big change. Ukraine can now attack into Russia. And by 'can', I mean politically. Without fear of backlash for killing civilians (which will inevitably happen).
It doesn't matter that Ukraine neither can nor wants to send 100 missiles to Russia. The fact that they can retaliate on Russian soil with rockets without loosing western support is the change.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, OBJ said:

We can ask @The_Capt, but my impression is much of what came out of the 1949 Geneva convention and associated protocols was a direct result of what all parties experienced in WWII. The people that 'won' were trying to create rules and enforcement mechanism that prevented them, and others, from, in part, adopting behaviors most likely to increase pain and suffering of civilians while prolonging any future conflict.

From a war fighting practical point of view their post war data seemed to indicate all terror bombing civilians did was make the enemy regime stronger, more resilient, more determined to resist, the opposite effect they were going for which was to break the enemy's will to resist.

It was pretty much 1914-1945 - whole lotta total war and darkest parts of the Bible stuff going on.  When the war ended there was also the added problem of the nuclear equation but in ‘49 it was till jot fully formed.  The Allies basically negotiated a new world order within the UN even though the Soviets and West were never going to be buddies.

With respect to Laws of Armed Conflict, yes, much of it was based on the horrors of WW2.  We get the movies and glory stories of good triumphs evil, but it was an absolutely brutal and vicious war on entire peoples.  The LOAC was designed to try and put it back into a box.  The great powers had tried before at The Hague conventions but those were early and often polluted attempts.  In 1949, not only were the conventions established but the framework to continue to develop them, and enforce them.

As to terror bombings.  Well these were definitely in the calculus, they had been conducted by all sides.  The biggest offenders were the Allies - US in particular.  I am not sure guilt had anything to do with it.  More costs and escalation.  The main intent of the 1949 Geneva conventions was to make war itself illegal at the inter-state level.  Going to war, even in self defence was to have oversight by an international community of “grown ups” who could either support the war even tacitly or intervene to stop it.  We saw both of these actions over the next 70 years, it normally depended who was whose proxy in the Cold War.  Or in the case of Saddam, a serious misread of the room that led to an international intervention.

”Have the LOAC worked?”  Is actually a question at the military staff college.  The answer is “kinda, but better than nothing.”  What is unique about this war is that it is directly involving a great power (permanent member of the UNSC) who unilaterally invaded another country… who is not the US.  It has happened before (Iraq 2003, Afghanistan 2001) but this time there was not even a veneer of just cause.  The UNSC was left totally out of the loop, just as it has been in Gaza.  The wind direction appears to be heading towards Rule of the Gun.  This has many in the diplomatic community in a state of shock (or at least our diplomatic community) use of military hard power as a means of diplomacy was not supposed to be a thing - except for the US, on occasion.  But here we are.

[alison]

4 hours ago, Carolus said:

If some politically savy Chinese expats are to be believed, the view of Chinese leadership on Russia is actually very different than what we in the West would believe based on rational parameters.

Despite the incredibly obvious massive power difference in favour of China, the CCP sees Russia still as their big daddy, in terms of ideological tradition. They yearn for father's approval and present him what they drew in kindergarten today. They cower when uncle Putin stomps his foot and feel relieved when he bestows them with a kind word.

It is strange, but it is apparently a thing. Something something communist psychoanalysis and fatherlessness.

Which "politically savvy Chinese expats" would it be who think this?

I can't say I have a great insight into the political class of China, but I did live there for several years so I can share my experience talking to younger people, both blue collar and white collar types. The_Capt's implication that China intends for Russia to become its hat the same way that that Canada is America's hat feels like a more accurate take to me.

Russians do get a special level of respect in China that other foreigners do not - in fact it was often the first question out of people's mouths when I showed up in their small town or industrial suburb speaking Chinese: "are you Russian?" The stereotype is perhaps that Russian people are the only white foreigners who can both speak decent Chinese and also might have business to do in low class areas. Russians are trusted. Americans are not.

But every Chinese person I spoke to on the topic was also was critical of Russian politics, and saw the fall of USSR as a cautionary tale. This is one of the reasons why "... with Chinese characteristics" is still a major political buzzword. Middle class Chinese who drink the party kool-aid read Animal Farm or watch Chernobyl and see these as indictments of political structures that failed because they weren't imbued with "Chinese characteristics". Working class Chinese just know that that their great party leaders have special wisdom that former Russian leaders did not, which is why China is number 1, and why Russians today all come to China to work or study and make a better life for themselves.

It's certainly possible that people were just trying to say what they thought I wanted to hear - something that happens a lot in China - but the comments seemed fairly consistent. I think perhaps it is wishful thinking from Russian nationalists and western fascists that the current Chinese leadership secretly idolizes Putin.

Recently on this thread people were talking about what a split Russia could look like, and if there had been any historical precedent. It got me thinking about conversations I had with soft critics of the party and they'd often ask me "but what other alternative do we have?" And I'd say maybe China is too big and diverse to have a centralized government, maybe it it would do better if the geographic region we now call China were in fact managed as several smaller states, each with political structures and leaders who understood the local issues better. Just a tip: never say this to a Chinese person unless you want to get into a long discussion about Warring States period, Warlord Era, and why history has apparently proven that the only way there can ever be peace and prosperity in the region is under centralized leadership. It's the party line, but it's how people think, and it informs their views on Russia too.

Edited December 31, 2023 by alison
typo

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, poesel said:

I think you misunderstood me. I was not talking about my opinion (for the record: all for it) but the public opinion.

A year ago, the German public would have gone nuts about a missile attack of Ukraine on a Russian city. 'Escalation!', 'WW3 imminent!', 'Don't poke the bear!' etc...
There were some raised eyebrows when Ukraine did those little drone attacks. And now missiles, and the reaction is: nothing.

So I wanted to hear about the reaction in other countries.

If true, I think this is a big change. Ukraine can now attack into Russia. And by 'can', I mean politically. Without fear of backlash for killing civilians (which will inevitably happen).
It doesn't matter that Ukraine neither can nor wants to send 100 missiles to Russia. The fact that they can retaliate on Russian soil with rockets without loosing western support is the change.

We've seen Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory since the first months of the war.  The view of the West is that this is what Russia deserves, provided Ukraine goes after legitimate military targets (which does include some civilian infrastructure).  Anybody who follows this war knows that Russia deliberately targets civilian infrastructure and has killed 1000s of civilians either deliberately or through gross negligence.  Having some Russian civilians dying isn't a big deal provided that Ukraine isn't deliberately targeting them.

In the past I'd say Ukraine has very deliberately targeted legitimate military targets.  Any civilian deaths/injuries as a result, including those in the Donbas, are excusable.  Not only by keeping their deaths in perspective with the rest of the war, but also under international law.

The day we start reading about Ukraine deliberately and obviously striking civilian hospitals, schools, and shopping centers at times of peak civilian occupation is the day a lot of people, including me, will start asking some hard questions.  But that day is not here and therefore I don't see any problem with what Ukraine is doing.

On the other hand, there are only a few historical precedents that show policy can shift due to airstrikes on civilian/dual purpose infrastructure.  Every time we discuss this I bring up Serbia because that's the best example there is.  Serbian resolve to keep genocide going was not as strong as it was to keep their country from being knocked back into the 19th Century.

Ukraine's problem is it probably lacks the resources to make a meaningful impact on Russian public opinion on its own.  As part of the whole war, including piles of dead Russians, it is possibly meaningful.  We simply don't know at this point.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, alison said:

Which "politically savvy Chinese expats" would it be who think this?

I can't say I have a great insight into the political class of China, but I did live there for several years so I can share my experience talking to younger people, both blue collar and white collar types. The_Capt's implication that China intends for Russia to become its hat the same way that that Canada is America's hat feels like a more accurate take to me.

Russians do get a special level of respect in China that other foreigners do not - in fact it was often the first question out of people's mouths when I showed up in their small town or industrial suburb speaking Chinese: "are you Russian?" The stereotype is perhaps that Russian people are the only white foreigners who can both speak decent Chinese and also might have business to do in low class areas. Russians are trusted. Americans are not.

But every Chinese person I spoke to on the topic was also was critical of Russian politics, and saw the fall of USSR as a cautionary tale. This is one of the reasons why "... with Chinese characteristics" is still a major political buzzword. Middle class Chinese who drink the party kool-aid read Animal Farm or watch Chernobyl and see these as indictments of political structures that failed because they weren't imbued with "Chinese characteristics". Working class Chinese just know that that their great party leaders have special wisdom that former Russian leaders did not, which is why China is number 1, and why Russians today all come to China to work or study and make a better life for themselves.

It's certainly possible that people were just trying to say what they thought I wanted to hear - something that happens a lot in China - but the comments seemed fairly consistent. I think perhaps it is wishful thinking from Russian nationalists and western fascists that the current Chinese leadership secretly idolizes Putin.

Recently on this thread people were talking about what a split Russia could look like, and if there had been any historical precedent. It got me thinking about conversations I had with soft critics of the party and they'd often ask me "but what other alternative do we have?" And I'd say maybe China is too big and diverse to have a centralized government, maybe it it would do better if the geographic region we now call China were in fact managed as several smaller states, each with political structures and leaders who understood the local issues better. Just a tip: never say this to a Chinese person unless you want to get into a long discussion about Warring States period, Warlord Era, and why history has apparently proven that the only way there can ever be peace and prosperity in the region is under centralized leadership. It's the party line, but it's how people think, and it informs their views on Russia too.

Thanks for helping us unravel the various threads regarding China and Russia.  As the old saying goes, "it's complicated".

From what we can tell the official Chinese position on dealing with Russia is to secure the best deals for China at the expense of Russia.  This is not debatable, it is fact.  It goes back to 2014 when Russia was desperate to open up new energy markets due to economic pressure from Europe.  Russia signed deals which obligated it to pay for all the infrastructure and also give China a price break.  Similar deals have been publicly discussed since 2022.

As mentioned, the West gives away billions to Ukraine while China takes billions from Russia.  If China believes it is in its best interests to keep Russia strong, they have a funny way of going about it. 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Ukraine's attacks on Russia are also viewed through the lens of Russian hypocrisy:

Quote

Russian diplomats also called for a meeting of the U.N. Security Council in connection with the strike. Speaking to Russia’s state news agency, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Britain and the United States were guilty of encouraging Kyiv to carry out what she described as a “terrorist attack.” She also placed blame on EU countries who had supplied Ukraine with weapons.

https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/4382970-shelling-kills-21-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-following-moscows-aerial-attacks-across-ukraine/

Russia believes Ukraine's strike on Belgorod is a "terrorist attack", then they are admitting that the countless thousands of attacks on Ukrainian civilians since 2014 are also terrorist attacks.  Of course they don't see it that way, but I sure as Hell do.

Steve

[hcrof]

52 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We've seen Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory since the first months of the war.  The view of the West is that this is what Russia deserves, provided Ukraine goes after legitimate military targets (which does include some civilian infrastructure).  Anybody who follows this war knows that Russia deliberately targets civilian infrastructure and has killed 1000s of civilians either deliberately or through gross negligence.  Having some Russian civilians dying isn't a big deal provided that Ukraine isn't deliberately targeting them.

In the past I'd say Ukraine has very deliberately targeted legitimate military targets.  Any civilian deaths/injuries as a result, including those in the Donbas, are excusable.  Not only by keeping their deaths in perspective with the rest of the war, but also under international law.

The day we start reading about Ukraine deliberately and obviously striking civilian hospitals, schools, and shopping centers at times of peak civilian occupation is the day a lot of people, including me, will start asking some hard questions.  But that day is not here and therefore I don't see any problem with what Ukraine is doing.

On the other hand, there are only a few historical precedents that show policy can shift due to airstrikes on civilian/dual purpose infrastructure.  Every time we discuss this I bring up Serbia because that's the best example there is.  Serbian resolve to keep genocide going was not as strong as it was to keep their country from being knocked back into the 19th Century.

Ukraine's problem is it probably lacks the resources to make a meaningful impact on Russian public opinion on its own.  As part of the whole war, including piles of dead Russians, it is possibly meaningful.  We simply don't know at this point.

Steve

I think a big difference here is that a tiny country like Serbia had no hope to resist US airstrikes. It was effectively a form of gunboat diplomacy, where a great power can coerce a smaller one because of the overwhelming power difference. 

Where the two powers are more equal, such as in WW2 or now, bombing as a form of coercion will be counterproductive since the victim of the bombing simply wants to get revenge. This goes double when Russia perceives itself as the stronger power. 

I would suggest Ukraines best strategy is to bomb targets specifically to cause divisions in society, such as oligarchs homes like last year or symbolic targets. Making a few towns go dark and shutting down major airports etc would also cause general irritation at the war, without the same anger as killing civilians. 

[Joe982]

The Iranian embassy in Moscow would be an excellent target

[Zeleban]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Why stupid Allies just didn't work with population of Axis countries so as they uprise against own nazi dictators, why didn't invite them, didn't surround them by care and smiles, but instead dropped hellish tons of bombs on their heads? So, inhumane...

By the way USSR conducted successful bombing campaing against Finland in 1944, forcing them to change the side. .

That is, in your opinion, the SS and Wehrmacht units were not surrendered to the allies more willingly than to the Soviets?

The Allies did not do any active work to agitate the Germans, but the Germans still surrendered in entire units in 1945. Imagine if the Allies had put more effort into processing the consciousness of the Germans that the war was already lost. The Russians are doing it perfectly today - one unsuccessful offensive and half of Ukrainian society is ready to capitulate.

 

And of course, you shouldn’t compare the information warfare means of the 1940s and the 2020s. If only the allies had Twitter in those days...

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Oh... I feel a smell of leftism...

So, in your opinion, imperialism and racism are not barbarism?

[dan/california]

18 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Anyway, after some time, the company commander appeared and announced "Snake get ready, you're going to evacuate." At that moment, I was naked from the waist, grabbed the rifle and jumped out after the commander into the yard. Of course, I did not know that "buses" no longer go to the village.

From the moment I arrived for dressing after the injury, about five hours had passed at that moment. For most of this time, I directly directed the battle based on my knowledge of the terrain and people. I am sure that I am not unique in this regard, but I have not yet met more such fools in the National Guard.

It was snowing lightly. A drone lit up overhead and a tank started shooting at us. Positioned across the street behind the house, a detachment of the 1st platoon, which came as reinforcements with the company commander, was sitting there. The battalion was completely involved in this meat grinder. I leaned against the wall and began to just howl from the cold. I asked for foil from the company commander's first aid kit. He didn't find it. Ryzyk, the squad commander, began to look in his first-aid kit - it was also empty. At the same time, a tank was constantly shooting at us. Running around, he found a foil from one of the fighters, in which I happily wrapped myself.

The company commander began to tell how to go to the evacuation: "You will go to the river. You will go over her. There will be a cemetery, you go further. There you will see a bridge. You pass There, across the field, there will be an evacuee waiting at the landing.”

I don't even speak anymore, I nod and start to leave. Passing by the cemetery, I meet Horko, who was leading another squad. He asks "-How is it here? "- bloody hell. I left, I don't have the strength to talk anymore. Sorry." In the background there was a crescendo of battle sounds. The battle raged around the entire perimeter of the village. I thought about going across the river a couple of times, but the ice didn't seem reliable, and I could see water in some places. The temperature rose abnormally after the frost.

When I reached the bridge, I almost screamed. It was two rails on which one board was lying, and the handrail was broken and it was impossible to lean on it. Stepping slowly, gathering with each step, I will be late on this wonderful trail. Somewhere in the middle, the rifle pulled me to the river, and there was a desire to just let it go, but in my head flashed either fall with the weapon, or get out.

Catching my balance in the middle of this bridge, I went on. The field was flat as a pancake and covered with snow. There was no sign of where to go, so I just walked at random, hoping that it was a bunch of trees and the ****ing line of trees that the company told me about.

When I arrived at the evacuation point, of course no one was waiting for me there. I was already tired of wondering at that moment, so after climbing into the ditch, I wrapped myself tighter in the foil and sat down, staring into the void. After some time, the Nine armored personnel carrier arrived, stopping two hundred meters away, and the fighters immediately began to fall out. Realizing that it's not my evak mobile,
i staggered towards the armored personnel carrier, trying to somehow wave my hand, because I no longer had the strength to shout anything. These were additional soldiers of the 9th company, compared to the company commander, he asked how I was, I just shook my head and climbed into the armored personnel carrier. The armored personnel carrier roared and flew away. The gunner carefully took the rifle from me, proving that I would not be allowed in the hospital with a weapon.
I grimaced at every bump, but in the middle, a puppy's joy was growing. LIVE. I ****ED OUT ALIVE. The armored personnel carrier flew to Vasylkivka and I fell out near the medical post. The driver-mechanic ran up to me and with a joyful cry "Snake, I'm so glad you're alive." He slapped me on the shot shoulder blade. Moaning dully and not responding, I went to the medical center at his apology. My participation in the battle for Soledar ended there.

Explanation to the map:

Ш - the area where the Archeologist's fighters are concentrated

Д - the district where the neighboring forces retreated and entrenched themselves

E - some district was also held by our forces

Г - point G

П - point P

Ж - point J

+ - medical center

КОНТРАТАКА КРАКЕНА - Kraken unit counterattack

ЕВАКУАЦІЙНИЙ ШЛЯХ - Evacuation path

This is an excellent translation, gives as much feel for the war as anything I have read. It also really points out both how important good junior officers are, and how hard it is to keep them alive.

22 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I think a big difference here is that a tiny country like Serbia had no hope to resist US airstrikes. It was effectively a form of gunboat diplomacy, where a great power can coerce a smaller one because of the overwhelming power difference. 

Where the two powers are more equal, such as in WW2 or now, bombing as a form of coercion will be counterproductive since the victim of the bombing simply wants to get revenge. This goes double when Russia perceives itself as the stronger power. 

I would suggest Ukraines best strategy is to bomb targets specifically to cause divisions in society, such as oligarchs homes like last year or symbolic targets. Making a few towns go dark and shutting down major airports etc would also cause general irritation at the war, without the same anger as killing civilians. 

The only non military/defense industry target worth hitting is the Moscow electric grid, I don't think casualties, blackouts, or anything else does much of anything except play to Putins propaganda if it happens anywhere else in Russia. Now if they could put the lights out in Moscow, even for a few days, in the middle of winter? I think that would have a at the very least a meaningful propaganda value for Ukraine. It might even move some plans along by someone, somewhere for Putins own window mishap

17 minutes ago, Joe982 said:

The Iranian embassy in Moscow would be an excellent target

This would be the most excellent exception to what I just wrote above.

Edited December 31, 2023 by dan/california

[sburke]

17 hours ago, Carolus said:

If some politically savy Chinese expats are to be believed, the view of Chinese leadership on Russia is actually very different than what we in the West would believe based on rational parameters.

Despite the incredibly obvious massive power difference in favour of China, the CCP sees Russia still as their big daddy, in terms of ideological tradition. They yearn for father's approval and present him what they drew in kindergarten today. They cower when uncle Putin stomps his foot and feel relieved when he bestows them with a kind word.

It is strange, but it is apparently a thing. Something something communist psychoanalysis and fatherlessness.

nah, from an ideological perspective, China dumped Russia in the 1950s.  China viewed Russia as a sellout and Mao carried on what they considered the revolutionary tradition.  Now they are just two anti-democratic nations, one on the rise trying to exert what it feels is its rightful place in the world and the other in decline trying to exert what it thinks is its rightful place in the world.  I expect China views Russia as a useful patsy for the moment and to Jons' point trying to figure out what happens north of it once Russia collapses.  I expect they have much in common with the west in not wanting a complete Russian collapse for largely the same reasons.  Instability benefits no one economically.

Edited December 31, 2023 by sburke

[Lethaface]

11 hours ago, Butschi said:

Rotterdam was a contested city, so the bombing pre May 14th was not indiscriminate bombing, I think (though I'm really no expert on the topic). The most devastating bombing run happened after the Dutch has started negotiating the trend of surrendering.

Afaik the levelling of Rotterdam with indiscriminate incendiary carpet bombing was done in order to force surrender of the city/Dutch government, because German troops were held up in fierce urban fighting for the city. 

Although like you say, iirc the Dutch government already agreed to negotiate for the surrender of Rotterdam/general surrender for not wanting to have it's major cities laid to waste. Allegedly Because of miscommunication among German high command / air force the bombing still went ahead even though order to do so had been cancelled.

Anyway those were different times, carpet bombing / destruction of whole cities to break enemy will was relatively more acceptable compared to current norms. 

[Lethaface]

10 hours ago, Carolus said:

If some politically savy Chinese expats are to be believed, the view of Chinese leadership on Russia is actually very different than what we in the West would believe based on rational parameters.

Despite the incredibly obvious massive power difference in favour of China, the CCP sees Russia still as their big daddy, in terms of ideological tradition. They yearn for father's approval and present him what they drew in kindergarten today. They cower when uncle Putin stomps his foot and feel relieved when he bestows them with a kind word.

It is strange, but it is apparently a thing. Something something communist psychoanalysis and fatherlessness.

Look at the actual available metrics and events which took place surrounding China's visit to Russia earlier this year, and you'll know this is bullshik. 

BTW Russia isn't a communist nation anymore. 

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The only non military/defense industry target worth hitting is the Moscow electric grid, I don't think casualties, blackouts, or anything else does much of anything except play to Putins propaganda if it happens anywhere else in Russia. Now if they could put the lights out in Moscow, even for a few days, in the middle of winter? I think that would have a at the very least a meaningful propaganda value for Ukraine. It might even move some plans along by someone, somewhere for Putins own window mishap

This would be the most excellent exception to what I just wrote above.

I think there's more - hitting airports will impact wealthy Russians' ability to go vacation in Paris or Berlin (since EU nations are unwilling to do that themselves). And any oil and gas would be a good target, since that is what pays for the war. Causing logistic hiccups would help as well - older Russians remember 90's shortages as a symbol of failed government I'm sure.

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, Joe982 said:

The Iranian embassy in Moscow would be an excellent target

 

Hitting 'symbolic' targets isn't terribly helpful at this point IMHO; they've already hit the Kremlin, for those to eyes to see.

****

By the way, in 2024, expect a flood of AI generated and highly realistic deepfakes on the interwebz, showing everything from hi res vids of Russian drone swarms slaughtering Leopard columns to Ukrainian units mutinying.

Stay alert out there BFC copains, in what is likely to be a very bad year for the world.

Your lies are more attractive than the truth

 

[Ales Dvorak]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

On the other hand, there are only a few historical precedents that show policy can shift due to airstrikes on civilian/dual purpose infrastructure.  Every time we discuss this I bring up Serbia because that's the best example there is.  Serbian resolve to keep genocide going was not as strong as it was to keep their country from being knocked back into the 19th Century.

Given that Israel is equally embroiled in a genocidal story, the same technique could be used.

[Grossman]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for helping us unravel the various threads regarding China and Russia.  As the old saying goes, "it's complicated".

From what we can tell the official Chinese position on dealing with Russia is to secure the best deals for China at the expense of Russia.  This is not debatable, it is fact.  It goes back to 2014 when Russia was desperate to open up new energy markets due to economic pressure from Europe.  Russia signed deals which obligated it to pay for all the infrastructure and also give China a price break.  Similar deals have been publicly discussed since 2022.

As mentioned, the West gives away billions to Ukraine while China takes billions from Russia.  If China believes it is in its best interests to keep Russia strong, they have a funny way of going about it. 

Steve

After Biden met Xi in Woodside, California in November, the Chinese backed off their export of technical electronics to the Russia.. I don't know what was agreed in private, or what undertakings were made, but this what occurred. One suspects Biden made an undertaking re Taiwan in return. 

[paxromana]

27 minutes ago, Grossman said:

After Biden met Xi in Woodside, California in November, the Chinese backed off their export of technical electronics to the Russia.. I don't know what was agreed in private, or what undertakings were made, but this what occurred. One suspects Biden made an undertaking re Taiwan in return. 

Or, much more likely, read the Riot Act to Xi ... that there would be direct and real consequences to China if they didn't.

I suspect the only undertaking he would likely have given re Taiwan was ... don't even effing think about it, though probably in diplo speak