How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, TheVulture said:

See, the Russian claim that the Novocherkassk was damaged but not destroyed is technically true.

Who says the Russians don't have a good sense of humor?   I can just hear someone saying "Ukraine did not sink our ship, we lowered it down into the water to put out a small fire caused by cigarettes".

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

Cheers! A worthy toast 

Indeed!

 

[Haiduk]

Despite next LLS lose, Russian BSF keeps capabilities to substitute with these ships probable destruction of Kerch bridge

Here is list of LLSs in Black Sea on 24th Feb 2022:

BSF 197th landing ships brigade:

Pr. 1171 (NATO Alligator-class) "Saratov"  - destroyed by Tockha-U hit                    

Pr.1171 "Nikolay Philchenkov"

Pr.1171 "Orsk"

Pr.775 (NATO Ropuha-class) "Tsezar Kunnikov" - was damaged, cought fire in March 2022 in Berdiansk. Likeley repaired

Pr.775 "Yamal"

Pr.775 "Azov"

Pr. 775 "Novocherkassk" - was slightly damaged in March 2022 in Berdiansk. Now destroyed by Storm Shadow hit

 

LLSs deployed to Black Sea from other Russian fleets on the eve of war and given under BSF command:

 

Northern Fleet:

Pr.11711 (NATO Ivan Gren-class) "Pyotr Morgunov"

Pr.775 "Georgiy Pobyedonosets"

Pr.775 "Olenegorskiy gorniak" - damaged by naval drones attack. Under repair

 

Baltic fleet:

Pr.775 "Minsk" - badly damaged by Storm Shadow strike. Probably can't be repaired

Pr.775 "Korolyov"

Pr.775 "Kaliningrad"

 

So there were 7 "native" BSF ships + 6 attached. Now from these 13, 10 still remain in service (actually 9, because one under repair)

Edited December 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[Letter from Prague]

Is this the third time flagship of BSF was sunk? Fourth? I'm losing count.

(In theory, you could sink it as many times as BSF had ships, if you do it in the right order.)

[Haiduk]

Just RUMINT, but...

Allegedly on the board of "Novocherkassk" were 62 sailors, also the ship was loaded with 4400 artillery shells and 280 MLRS rockets.

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Is this the third time flagship of BSF was sunk? Fourth? I'm losing count.

LLS can't be a flagship. After "Moskva" gone, the frigade "Admiral Makarov" became a flagship. BSF has three of these newest ships (NATO Admiral Grigorovich - class). One of them out of Black Sea now in the Medditerranian.

[Beleg85]

"Novocherkassk" successfully dispersed itself over Teodosia (over 600m from explosion):

 

 

[sburke]

18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

"Novocherkassk" successfully dispersed itself over Teodosia (over 600m from explosion):

 

 

so the navy decided to beat the army turret toss competition?

[sburke]

some more potential cracks in morale.  "en masse" is a bit of a stretch, but it looks like there may be a trickle to start.

Russian soldiers surrender to Ukraine en masse, citing 'inhumane treatment' by command (msn.com)

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

some more potential cracks in morale.  "en masse" is a bit of a stretch, but it looks like there may be a trickle to start.

Russian soldiers surrender to Ukraine en masse, citing 'inhumane treatment' by command (msn.com)

I would be post one of example of this "inhumane treatment", nut I think Elvis will delete this. Russians proudly posted this temeselves "so as cowards fear". Four soldiers were naked, beaten and forced to fu...k each other into a..s because they abandoned positions.  

Edited December 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[Jace11]

Pretty sure I watched a video on YT about why and how the UKR were prioritising and going after the Ropuchas and similar ships, their importance etc. the reasons are fairly obvious really but it went into nice detail, I just can’t remember where/who it was…

[Tux]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

 

 

To those with a better understanding: what are we seeing in the explosion here that makes it look (to my eyes) an unusual colour and… ‘texture’?   Are the burning sparks so evenly sized and spread through the mushroom cloud just pieces of metal?  Burning artillery propellant?  The cloud itself also looks a weird colour, to me.

Or maybe it’s just normal burning debris and the glowing, silvery cloud is some kind of compression artefact?

[cesmonkey]

30 minute explanatory video:

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by cesmonkey

[poesel]

Turkey finally agreed to Sweden joining NATO. One condition was that Turkey gets F16s.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ankara-tuerkischer-parlamentsausschuss-billigt-schwedens-nato-beitritt-a-0a6d82fa-0893-4c47-8692-3052c5f30c93

Edited December 26, 2023 by poesel

[danfrodo]

Dumb question of the day: does the RU loss of 5 jets indicate some use of F16s?  If it is possible, in what way would F16s be able to do this?  I thought they wuz just airplanes that would be shot out of the sky if they actually tried to accomplish anything useful.  But then again, I have a well known tank bias.  

[Carolus]

18 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Dumb question of the day: does the RU loss of 5 jets indicate some use of F16s?  If it is possible, in what way would F16s be able to do this?  I thought they wuz just airplanes that would be shot out of the sky if they actually tried to accomplish anything useful.  But then again, I have a well known tank bias.  

What people in this thead posted has been Patriot SAM + maybe accident  + maybe friendly fire as the most likely culprit. 

The question of whether F-16 could be involved depends on whether Ukraine received new long-range AA missiles and there has been zero confirmation of that. Because there is no other way to reach out to these jets otherwise for the F-16 without being at risk themselves - and Ukraine would not risk such high value assets. 

[TheVulture]

28 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Dumb question of the day: does the RU loss of 5 jets indicate some use of F16s?  If it is possible, in what way would F16s be able to do this?  I thought they wuz just airplanes that would be shot out of the sky if they actually tried to accomplish anything useful.  But then again, I have a well known tank bias.  

Most modern aircraft fights are BVR (beyond visual range), where the fighters are often 10-20 miles apart and lobbing missiles at each other. How threatening an aircraft is in that situation is much more a question of radar capability, missile capabilties and situational awareness. 

The F16 (IIRC) has a pretty decent radar, and can probably lock a target up from further away than e.g. an Su-34, which is a solid advantage. But perhaps more importantly, it can carry any number of NATO missiles (most relevantly, Meteor or AMRAAM) which a) are good BVR missiles and b) can be supplied to Ukraine more easily than equivalents compatible with their Soviet aircraft.

Its entirely possible that, as with HIMARS and ATACMS, the introduction of a new capability might cause a sudden surge in casualties until the Russians adapt to it. So if they are used to defending against whatever missiles the Ukraine air force has available, and then suddenly are having Meteor missiles lobbed at them, there is a very good chance they are going to misjudge safe distances, speeds etc. until the pilots adapt to the new threat environment.

That having been said, I think your first though it about right, that actually neither side are getting aircraft close enough to each other to be in BVR range, and that area denial from ground based S-300, S-400 and patriot systems would make it too high risk.

Have any F-16s actually been delivered to Ukraine anyway? I know they've been announced, but I've not seen anything about them being in-theatre yet.

Edited December 26, 2023 by TheVulture

[Eddy]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Dumb question of the day: does the RU loss of 5 jets indicate some use of F16s?

Not a dumb question, Dan. Both Reporting from Ukraine and Anders Puck Nielsen YT channels have asked the same question. 

There's no evidence either way except that 5 Su34s/Su30s were shot down by something in the last few days. As Nielsen states, if the F16s were quietly introduced this is probably what it would look like. The trouble is if they were shot down by Patriots (or whatnot) this is also what it would look like.

I've been going through the old Warzone articles on the the timelines for training UKR pilots on the F16 and they basically put forward the opinion that it will takes many, many months. But I wonder whether that's for full training across all missions, like ground attack, SEAD/DEAD etc. I wonder how quickly experienced pilots could be trained to do just AA missile interception and then train them later on the other stuff. 

That said, Carolus is correct. Without AMRAAMS/Meteor the F16 would not be capable. (I don't even know if F16 are integrated with Meteor - the only thing I could find on it is that Greece has Meteor missiles and also F16s. Doesn't mean they're integrated. Greece also has Rafales which are integrated). 

 

[danfrodo]

16 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Not a dumb question, Dan. Both Reporting from Ukraine and Anders Puck Nielsen YT channels have asked the same question. 

There's no evidence either way except that 5 Su34s/Su30s were shot down by something in the last few days. As Nielsen states, if the F16s were quietly introduced this is probably what it would look like. The trouble is if they were shot down by Patriots (or whatnot) this is also what it would look like.

I've been going through the old Warzone articles on the the timelines for training UKR pilots on the F16 and they basically put forward the opinion that it will takes many, many months. But I wonder whether that's for full training across all missions, like ground attack, SEAD/DEAD etc. I wonder how quickly experienced pilots could be trained to do just AA missile interception and then train them later on the other stuff. 

That said, Carolus is correct. Without AMRAAMS/Meteor the F16 would not be capable. (I don't even know if F16 are integrated with Meteor - the only thing I could find on it is that Greece has Meteor missiles and also F16s. Doesn't mean they're integrated. Greece also has Rafales which are integrated). 

 

Thanks all.  So I am hearing F16 would be useful if it had the long range radar and the right missiles.  And actually existed w trained pilots ready to go, at the front.  Would be really fun if this were the case 

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Dumb question of the day: does the RU loss of 5 jets indicate some use of F16s?  If it is possible, in what way would F16s be able to do this?  I thought they wuz just airplanes that would be shot out of the sky if they actually tried to accomplish anything useful.  But then again, I have a well known tank bias.  

Russia already shot down six F16s, so they must be in use

Based on Russian analysts, Reporting from Ukraine outlined a theory about how the ambush of the Russian planes happened.

[Eddy]

I've been thinking about the Storm Shadow/SCALP attack on the ship in Feodosia. That is right on the edge of Storm Shadow/SCALP's range which means that the SU24 either went over the Black Sea or very near to Russian controlled air space in order to deliver those weapons. Either way, normally that would put them at risk of Russian fighters and the Ukrainians don't have enough SU24s to take many risks. And they need those SU24s.

However, with the downing of 5 Russian jets (from whatever source), the Russian have to pull back before they work out what the hell happened, thus creating gaps. 

So, for me, this a planned operation. First shoot down the Russian fighters and then exploit those gaps created with a Storm Shadow/SCALP attack as part of the same operation. I can't see it being an opportunistic attack. The timescales are too tight. 

Secondly, it creates a dilemma for the VVS. Do they go back to employing their fighters the same way prior to the shooting down and risk further losses. Or do they protect the fighters but leave themselves open to further Strom Shadow/SCALP attacks? 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Oh, for sure I smell a multi-stage effort on Ukraine's part.  We've seen this a couple of times before where they invest heavily in smacking some sort of air defense and then glug-glug-glug goes a ship.

Thankfully, Russia seems incapable of doing this sort of thing to Ukraine.

Steve

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, for sure I smell a multi-stage effort on Ukraine's part.  We've seen this a couple of times before where they invest heavily in smacking some sort of air defense and then glug-glug-glug goes a ship.

Thankfully, Russia seems incapable of doing this sort of thing to Ukraine.

Steve

Hopefully they'll soon be able to use F-16s to make the Kerch Bridge go boom-crash-sink!

[Kinophile]

Not beng facetious, but deploying a Patriot battery south and away from defending cities would not be a solo event, right? It would be a strategic decision and part of a much bigger shift in operations. Preceded by smaller related and varied ops and enabling much larger ones once in place? Like, say, the quiet, staged deployment of F16s? 

Doesnt that fit the observed pace, pattern and results table of the UKR operations along Black Sea Coast and Kherson in AO? 

Pushing the patriots south is not just shifting an AD capability - it implies leaving somewhere else undefended, so doing so must be worth it. 

Defending a critical national-level economic asset would fit that bill nicely. A blocked sea-borne grain export is a state viability disaster. 

So the creation and protection of a viable grain corridor is arguably Ukraine's greatest strategic victory of 2024. 

It guarantees a serious portion of state income, improves geopolitical credibility and signals theatre level military capability. Russia tried to prevent it and failed completely. Ukraine won the economic breathing space to live another year. 

This idea suggests that Crimea/Kerch bridge has been a red herring all year, in a way. The southern AA/AD campaign, multi domain and all, has really just been about one thing: "the economy, stupid." 

It helps explain the low use of scalps etc, ie husbanding them in case of a determined Russian push against the grain corridor.

Next year, I suspect, will be really about the relentless murder of the Russian BSF and isolation of Crimea. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Not beng facetious, but deploying a Patriot battery south and away from defending cities would not be a solo event, right? It would be a strategic decision and part of a much bigger shift in operations. Preceded by smaller related and varied ops and enabling much larger ones once in place.

Doesnt that fit the observed pace, pattern and results table of the UKR operations along Black Sea Coast and Kherson in AO? 

Pushing the patriots south is not just shifting an AD capability - it implies leaving somewhere else undefended, so doing so must be worth it. 

Defending a critical national-level economic asset would fit that bill nicely. No sea borne grain export is a state viability disaster. 

The creation of a viable grain corridor is arguably Ukraines greatest strategic victory of 2024. It guarantees a serious portion of state income, improves geopolitical credibility and signals theatre level military capability. Russia tried to prevent it and failed completely. Ukraine won the economic breathing space to live another year. 

This idea suggests that Crimea/Kerch bridge has been a red herring all year, in a way. The southern AA/AD campaign, multi domain and all, has really just been about one thing: "the economy, stupid." 

It helps explain the low use of scalps etc, ie husbanding them in case of a determined Russian push against the grain corridor.

Next year, I suspect, will be really about Crimea. 

The theory is the one used in the south is a newly arrived system from Germany.  If true, this means Ukraine is largely satisfied with the ability to defend against Russia's terror drone strikes.

Steve