How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians don't abandon their own %)

This guy didn't win a race with MTLB %)

 

[Yet]

RU bought 92 (civilian) airplanes. 

these Airbus and Boing planes were confiscated by RU government and are now legally bought. 

(in Dutch) 

https://www.upinthesky.nl/2023/12/25/rusland-koopt-bijna-honderd-westerse-vliegtuigen/

 

 

[Haiduk]

What doom looks like. Drones completely paralized a will. Warning. Brutal videos

 

[Haiduk]

Russian BMP probably disembarked assault group in tree-palnt near Stepove and was immobilized with RPG by UKR soldiers of Bakhmut TD battalion of 109th TD brigade of Donetsk oblast. 

Arrived Bradley of 47th mech.brigade shot out this BMP and two other abandoned armor nearby as well as probably remained Russian infantry 

 

[Offshoot]

Hopefully the start of a new crack, or the widening of an existing one.

‘We’re tired of being good girls’: Russia’s military wives and mothers protest against Putin

[Haiduk]

These unit have to receive full set of Bradleys/CV90, modern tanks and artillery systems. Their recruiting and training system have to be scaled on whole ground forces. 

 

[Haiduk]

At the Christmas night "Magyar birds" continued to burn Russian armor near Krynky. At this time they finished off abandomed vehciles - Grad, tank and BMD or BMP on M-14 road

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Yet said:

RU bought 92 (civilian) airplanes. 

these Airbus and Boing planes were confiscated by RU government and are now legally bought. 

(in Dutch) 

https://www.upinthesky.nl/2023/12/25/rusland-koopt-bijna-honderd-westerse-vliegtuigen/

 

 

interesting.  They already had them, not sure what the implications are of formally coughing up 2 billion.  They still can't get parts.

[Offshoot]

16 minutes ago, sburke said:

interesting.  They already had them, not sure what the implications are of formally coughing up 2 billion.  They still can't get parts.

Apparently it enables them to fly international routes without fear of the planes being seized ( https://simpleflying.com/russia-2bn-airplane-buyback-lessors/ ). Whether that also enables them to receive maintenance in other countries that aren't sanctioning Russia is another story.

[Vet 0369]

23 hours ago, danfrodo said:

uhhhh, corruption?  Graft and corruption in many industries don't have quite the immediate, catastrophic consequences that would occur with aircraft maintenence.  Charging for but pretending to replace expensive components when required.  Or using substandard components because so much cheaper.  Not running proper tests but signing off as if it was done, because running tests costs labor & time.  Over time, and not a very long time, corruption in maintenence would start showing up thru mix of planes having issues in the sky, some disasterous, some not.

The most recent incidents with which I was involved was just before I retired from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was a program called “Suspected Unapproved Parts”. “A.K.A. counterfeit parts that were being sold to U.S. Air Carriers. It involved parts from non-Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) that U.S. Air Carriers purchased to maintain their fleets. This was a problem that extended across basically all major airframe and engine manufacturers products in service, and throughout most, if not all, Air Carriers in the world. The incidents that really kicked off the program were reports of incidents in engine turbine discs reported by Lufthansa.

Do you all really think the manufacturers of the SUPs have gone out of business in the last seven years? I sincerely hope they have, but I kinda effing doubt it. I was involved in aviation for more than 50 years, and i know what these “Second Source Manufacturers” are capable of!

Graft and lax maintenance are surely involved, but an inability to produce or acquire parts, even if counterfeit, are not the reason IMHO.

[Vet 0369]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

It is interesting that CM modern titles were actually pretty conservative in modelling near-future warfare.  I can recall playing CMBS and seeing a lot of these sorts of phenomenon but if one could establish a level of superiority manoeuvre was still possible.  Next-Gen ATGMs alone would be game changers but add in UAS, ISR and other PGM and one can quickly see where this goes.

Of course if BFC had modeled modern warfare correctly the hue and cry from the community would have been epic.  Well the next title should be interesting.  Or we could all just go back to our comfort zones…like CMCW!

I don’t know, I find it amazing that both Ukraine and Russia are having so much trouble dealing with drones. Whenever I played CNBS against the Russians, those damn Tunguskas seemed to easily take down my Ravens any time I got anywhere close enough to see them!

[sburke]

49 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Apparently it enables them to fly international routes without fear of the planes being seized ( https://simpleflying.com/russia-2bn-airplane-buyback-lessors/ ). Whether that also enables them to receive maintenance in other countries that aren't sanctioning Russia is another story.

I doubt this will help much.  Even China and India are having already issues with Russian airlines not meeting parts standards.  Owning more aircraft isn't the core problem for Russia.

[TheVulture]

6 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I don’t know, I find it amazing that both Ukraine and Russia are having so much trouble dealing with drones. Whenever I played CNBS against the Russians, those damn Tunguskas seemed to easily take down my Ravens any time I got anywhere close enough to see them!

In a CM battle though you are implicitly in a situation where chucking a Tunguska in the area is reasonable, and the impact of cost exchange ratios doesn't matter because the battle is its own self contained world.

In Ukraine on the other hand, rather than a single $35k reaper, you've got dozens of tiny quad copter drones, an operational system that has spent the last 18 months figuring out how to integrate them in to the kill chain,  and a Tunguska that close to the front is going to quickly wind up as an expensive and hard to replace scrap metal sculpture installation.

A Tunguska *could* shoot down some quad copters, although not as easily as a Raven, but you're going to run out of Tunguskas very quickly if you send them all to do short range air defence close to the line of contact. 

[danfrodo]

34 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

The most recent incidents with which I was involved was just before I retired from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was a program called “Suspected Unapproved Parts”. “A.K.A. counterfeit parts that were being sold to U.S. Air Carriers. It involved parts from non-Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) that U.S. Air Carriers purchased to maintain their fleets. This was a problem that extended across basically all major airframe and engine manufacturers products in service, and throughout most, if not all, Air Carriers in the world. The incidents that really kicked off the program were reports of incidents in engine turbine discs reported by Lufthansa.

Do you all really think the manufacturers of the SUPs have gone out of business in the last seven years? I sincerely hope they have, but I kinda effing doubt it. I was involved in aviation for more than 50 years, and i know what these “Second Source Manufacturers” are capable of!

Graft and lax maintenance are surely involved, but an inability to produce or acquire parts, even if counterfeit, are not the reason IMHO.

Whoa, we have an FAA veteran here?  Great to hear from actual expert.  Thanks for setting us straight, Vet0369.  

[Offshoot]

26 minutes ago, sburke said:

Owning more aircraft isn't the core problem for Russia.

They already had possession of the planes but could not use them fully for fear of losing them. We don't know what they have been doing with the planes they bought, but if they have just been sitting perhaps they are in better condition than the ones they have still been flying. Or they might feel more freedom to pillage them for parts. Or maybe whoever owns S7 was able to call in some favours to keep their business running; it doesn't necessarily have to have been done in the greater service of Russia, though having planes carrying cargo from international countries will no doubt help them to some extent.

[Sojourner]

Christmas on the front line with the 72nd Mechanized Brigade.

More photos at

https://kyivindependent.com/christmas-on-the-frontline-how/

[Zeleban]

 

[chuckdyke]

Voyage to the bottom of the sea. Old TV series. 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Reportedly LLS "Novocherkassk" was involved in ammunition supply chain, i.e. she was delivering "Shakheds" to Crimea. So huge explosion because of some HE cargo was onboard.

Port facilities and residential quarters near the port got damages because of shock wave. Local authorities reported one civilian dead and six wounded. Of course, no words about LLS crew - 87 men.

Explosion happened since 30 minutes after hits. UKR Air Force Command claimed this was successful strikes of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles,conducted by Su-24

Edited December 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Reportedly, detonation of "Novocherkassk" caused damages and fire of cargo ship "San Cosmas" (Tanzania flag), involved in shipping of stolen Ukrainian grain.

Also probably one more vessel of Black Sea Fleet could be destroyed or damaged by this explosion - this is sea tug MB-304. On the day-ago sattelite photo she stands close to "Novocherkassk".

And here is one more good video of explosion from more close range (upper video)

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Merry Christmas to all folks- in first place, to Ukrainian defenders. AFU gave nice gift.

 

[TheVulture]

See, the Russian claim that the Novocherkassk was damaged but not destroyed is technically true.  If you squint hard enough. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

So let’s everybody raise a traditional toast in honour of the Black Sea Fleet- bottoms up!

[Lethaface]

Cheers! A worthy toast 

[Carolus]

The losses of the Russian Navy are nothing short of historic at this point. 

And against a nation without their own navy!

(Shows why air supremacy is still important and how Western PGM can help circumvent the denial umbrella).