How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

Just now, kimbosbread said:

Off topic re US border: The democrats are being handed a gift here by their republicans where they can materially change their border stance to something more reasonable (ie anything not wide open is literally facism) long before the election. The Republicans are either too stupid to wait to spring this until say mid-summer, and/or the situation at the border is that bad (it is).

Correct. This is why before now the GOP talked a big game but actually held up any real solution. If you are thinking that applied to abortion too, yes...before the reactionary clods took over in the House the GOP was too smart to actually solve Democratic electoral problems for them. A border likely boosts Biden's chances of winning signficantly.

[Chibot Mk IX]

Regarding the recent news about the death of Chinese citizen Zhao Rui, who participated in the Russian Army, renowned pro-Russian war correspondent Lu Yuguang has compiled and published the following article based on accounts from Zhao Rui's teammates.

Translate with ChatGPT

Quote

After the death of Zhao Rui, a native of Chongqing, China, all of his documents – passport, ID, Russian military orders, enlistment certificates, Russian military ID, contracts, and more – were laid out in front of me. Additionally, there were his phone, translator, and other belongings.

Zhao Rui, male, born on July 20th, 1985, in Chongqing's Nanan District, at a certain address in Tanzishi Nong Street. Both his parents are retirees. He stood at 1.82 meters, slightly chubby, had a few girlfriends but at 38 years old, remained unmarried.

He was a free-spirited, solitary young man, loyal and righteous, the kind who was passionate about justice and belonged to the category of fiery-blooded youth.

From his ancestors, Zhao Rui had stories of fighting against the Japanese. He loved reading novels like 'Railway Guerrillas,' 'Burning Steel,' 'Plain Guerrillas,' all related to resisting the Japanese invasion. In school, he often narrated stories of anti-Japanese heroes from these books to his friends, treating them as if they were characters from 'Water Margin.'

After dropping out of school, Zhao Rui discovered a group similar to the anti-Japanese forces in the history in northern Myanmar jungle from an online source. Through introductions from a guide, he secretly went to northern Myanmar and joined the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army.

This militia truly resembled the 'Three Discipline, Eight Points of Attention' of the Eighth Route Army from the past.

Later on, Zhao Rui also recruited XiaoQiang from Kanchiang, Guangdong into his adventure team.

XiaoQiang: I met Zhao Rui in 2013; he was my comrade in the Allied forces. After returning to China, we went our separate ways but kept sporadic contact. Occasionally, we would boast about our exploits in our comrade group.

During the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Zhao Rui told me that Ukraine had recruited many individuals from Western countries, including Japanese soldiers with deep enmity towards us Chinese, and even troops from the Eight-Nation Alliance that invaded Beijing's Old Summer Palace!  (well, he forgot Russia is also in Eight-Nation Alliance)

At that time, Zhao Rui was the administrator of the MNDAA group and noticed that Russia was starting to recruit volunteer corps from around the world. He had a sudden idea: 'Why not go to Russia and fight against the Japanese?' I thought he was joking, so I agreed.

But Zhao Rui was serious. He told me that he would depart two months later and needed to lose weight during that time.

I didn't know how to refuse; if I promised something, I had to follow through. I tried countless times to persuade my wife. Our daughter was only 3 years old, and my wife tearfully begged me not to go. But since I had promised Zhao Rui, I couldn't back out.

I told my wife, 'Give me this last bit of freedom, then I'll listen to you for the rest of our lives.'

I said, 'Zhao Rui and I will just be soldiers in Moscow; we won't go to the front lines.'

My wife and daughter shed countless tears, but they couldn't stop me.

After waiting for more than a month, our tourist visas for Moscow were approved. Zhao Rui asked me to take a plane to Chengdu and wait for him there. He would come from Chongqing to pick me up. We spent three days in Chengdu, during which he told me many stories about his family, like how his grandfather was an underground anti-Japanese worker. Suddenly, I understood his actions, thinking that even if comrades die on the battlefield, they should die gloriously!

We boarded the flight to Moscow! We arrived in Moscow in the early hours of the morning, took a car to the hotel, slept until daylight, visited Red Square for a day, and only the next day did we go to the recruitment station. After passing the medical examination, we directly took a car to the outskirts' Pioneer training camp. After half a month of training there, we were assigned to the 58th Army of the Southern Military District of Russia. After some time training in Rostov, we were sent to Belgorod to undergo 20 days of mandatory training under Wagner instructors.

Later, we were assigned to a certain battalion in a certain regiment of the 58th Army. Both Zhao Rui and I were privates.

This year, on November 11th, our company was sent to the front line for the first time, towards Novoprovoka in the Zaporizhia direction, very close to Labodino. On that day, over 40 foreign recruits, including us, entered a village and were surrounded by the locals. We hid in a house and fought for a week, unable to evacuate the wounded, feeling as if awaiting death.

After I was injured by a blast, only Zhao Rui and I, along with six Nepalese soldiers, remained. Several times, we heard Ukrainian tanks passing by the house, the sound of artillery booming.

On the sixth day, the supporting Russian troops finally arrived. We managed to retreat to the rear, where we rested for about a month.

On November 29th this year, we received another notice to head to the front line at Novoprovoka. Before departing, Zhao Rui called friends and arranged his affairs at home; we all knew this trip was very risky!

We took a bus from the camp to Tokmak city, then boarded an armored vehicle to enter Novoprovoka. We hid in the woods there, waiting for further orders.

Late autumn in Zaporizhia was very cold, frost forming on our hair, chilling winds penetrating.

Around six in the morning, over thirty of us boarded tracked armored personnel carriers. Zhao Rui and I sat on the first one; Zhao Rui was particular because he was from the city and the vehicle was dirty due to mud. We all sat on the flat surface above the tracks, with Zhao Rui sitting tall by the turret. He was 1.8 meters tall, like a wooden board sticking on the armored vehicle. The vehicle sped up, Zhao Rui let out a shout, a tree branch scratched his foot, causing a significant injury.

I loudly asked how badly he was hurt, suggesting he jump down and crawl back on his own. He didn't respond.

The battle quickly commenced. After the Russian artillery barrage, the Russian squad leader ordered an assault. As we fired and advanced, Zhao Rui, a few Nepalese soldiers, and I formed an assault team.

Following the tactics taught by the Wagner instructors, we alternately covered each other, advancing into the deepest Ukrainian trenches.

The Nepalese soldiers were scared; they just hid behind Zhao Rui and me. Zhao Rui, dragging his injured foot, turned back to yell at me, saying something about dying today. I scolded him, telling him not to talk nonsense and to find a place to hide while urging the Nepalese soldiers forward!

Once we entered the Ukrainian trenches, chaos ensued. The Nepalese soldiers' hands were trembling, their submachine guns firing continuously. They didn't hit any Ukrainian soldiers but took down their comrades!

After one of the Nepalese fell, convulsing on the ground and then lying still, the one who fired the shot turned pale with fear, mistakenly thinking I was coming to kill him!

After driving all Ukrainian forces out of the trench, we cleared the surface positions, and only eight of us remained.

There was no counterattack from the Ukrainian forces; instead, they began using drones to drop bombs and wear us down. Drones flew like flies, buzzing around the positions, occasionally causing explosions, followed by cries of distress.

We searched for a hiding place in the anti-aircraft shelter, but the Russian squad leader was nowhere to be found.

Without a commander, everyone acted on their own!

By noon, with no sign of reinforcements, I started searching for Zhao Rui. Around 4 p.m., I saw him on the edge of the trench: Zhao Rui covered in blood, lying on his back, looking at the sky with bloodless face and open eyes.

In his lifetime, half-jokingly, he kept instructing me: if he died and his body couldn't be taken away, be sure to cut off his hair and bring it back to his parents for his soul to return home.

I didn't have scissors at the time, and I couldn't bring myself to tear his hair off. I took his passport from his coat and found his other belongings.

At that moment, a drone suddenly accelerated above me, a precursor to bombing. Before I could react, the small bomb had already exploded. I quickly ran to the other side of the trench; the second drone followed and dropped a larger bomb. My leg felt a burning sensation; I was injured, so I lay still on the ground, pretending to be dead.

Then, a third drone arrived, buzzing near my forehead, and soon, it flew away. In the dark evening on the Zaporozhye grassland, after a simple treatment of my wounds, I realized my face was covered in blood.

Shortly after, a slightly larger drone arrived, dropping a rocket into my anti-aircraft shelter. Smoke emerged, and my left eye corner was injured.

My face and thighs were covered in blood, and I felt quite panicked.

By nightfall, we were leaderless, with only seven Nepalese soldiers left. One of them approached me and asked in English if I could move.

I replied that my leg was injured, and I couldn't walk. These guys left me behind, disappearing from the trench, and soon after, I heard a series of explosions of landmines outside the trench.

It's unclear what kind of battle this was. The foreign legion had no commanders, no infantry tactics, no cover, no medical support, no communication tools, no backup ammunition, no support, and no coordination. Fortunately, the Ukrainian forces were in a similar situation. When we entered the trench, we saw an old man who threw away his gun and ran away. I picked up his gun without even disengaging the safety.

It was chaotic!

Both sides were clueless!

It was late at night, and the Ukrainian forces launched cluster rockets into the trench. These cluster bombs contained dozens of steel pellets in each warhead, causing delayed explosions, tearing through the air with a hissing sound.

I had to leave the trench immediately, which was now only occupied by me.

But where to go? I judged the direction of Ukrainian artillery fire by the bright explosions; the illuminated explosion sites should be the Russian positions.

The Ukrainian forces inserted many yellow flags in front of their positions, so I took a chance, assuming it was a guide rather than a minefield marker.

Nobody would be so foolish as to tell the enemy where the landmines were buried.

Crawling out of the minefield, I saw something shiny in front. I crawled over and found a crashed fighter jet with a person inside. Out of curiosity, I touched him with my hand, realizing he was a pilot, his hair and face frozen in ice, shining in the gunfire.

This was a maze of trenches and ravines crisscrossed by both armies, with shattered body parts and corpses strewn everywhere. Suddenly, a flare lit up, illuminating the earth brightly, followed by a barrage of bullets from about ten meters away.

Luckily, I had warm clothes on since southern people fear the cold. On that day, I wore five layers of clothing, including three inside my bulletproof vest.

I deliberately shouted loudly, lay down in the bomb crater, and pretended to be dead. Shortly after, a Ukrainian drone flew over, lighting up its headlamp, circling a few times, and then flew away.

Another round of gunfire came, and I was hit in the back, but I remained calm and didn't feel much. Later, I found that the bullets had only penetrated halfway into the bulletproof vest.

Seizing the opportunity, I quickly crawled toward another direction where the Ukrainian forces were shooting, finally reaching the Russian positions.

I crawled for more than a kilometer.

It took more than six hours in total.

*********************************************

Additional notes from Lu Yuguang: 

Tonight, I am staying overnight in a concealed tunnel in front of the command post of a Russian regiment in Novoazovsk, which belongs to the second defense line of the Surovikin.

Large snowflakes fall from the sky, illuminated by the glow of artillery fire.

In an instant, the fields and grass are covered in the white, fluffy snow.

Using the military network of the headquarters, I tried to send a message to Xiaoqiang, who is recovering in the Rostov Military Hospital: "Is it snowing in Rostov?" However, due to poor network conditions, the message never got through.

I showed the photo and belongings of Zhao Rui to the head of the Russian news department. In fact, we have become accustomed to all of this.

I know that the simple sky by the Jialing River, which belongs to Zhao Rui, must not have luxurious colors. There, by the river, are the familiar boatmen's tunes, the pure bright moon, and the person who can accompany him to tell anti-Japanese stories at night.

When the heart is calm, the world becomes calm, for Zhao Rui.

Zhao Rui's TikTok account: Emperor Qian Long.

The last update was on November 27, 2023, at 11:11.

Rest in peace, our fellow countryman Zhao Rui!

Our hearts will all remain in Donbas, whether it's for those bidding farewell or those who will leave this land in the future, because there are too many unforgettable memories.

Lu Yuguang wrote this on December 19, 2023, at 22:00, from the frontline camp in Novoazovsk, Zaporozhye.

 

永远留在顿巴斯的老乡：赵睿|中国体育联赛|中国职业运动联盟|乌军|俄军|副司令|莫斯科|顿巴斯_手机网易网 (163.com)

[poesel]

36 minutes ago, OBJ said:

...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M58_MICLIC

The line charge is 350 feet (107 meters) long and contains 5 pounds (2.27 kg) per linear foot of C-4 explosive. This line charge is supposed to be effective against conventionally fused land mines and supposed to clear a lane 8m wide. 

The explosives for a line this length weigh 1,750 lbs, just the explosives, not sure about the 'line container'. The greatest lift I've seen for 'heavy' drones is 414 lbs, so if that's a practical max we'd need to reduce line length assuming lifting drones at both ends.

...

Hmm, laying MICLICs via drone sounds like a good idea. Problem is weight. Taking above figures and converting them into sensible units ( ) gives about 7.5 kg/m of C4. Let's say 10. The R18 drone carries 5kg. So two of them may carry 1-2 m of mine clearing. That is not much.
Fixed wings might be better here. A few pages back we had that plywood AQ-400 drones that could carry 42kg over 750km. Let's just use these numbers. It's fair to assume a combo of one motored, and one glider drone could carry 100kg. That's 10+ m of MICLIC.

So 10 of these replace one M58 system (and it is scalable in length in both directions). You don't need 5t of trailer or 15t of UR-77.

Downsides are weather dependency, and it is harder to aim. But it is comparably cheap and reusable (apart from the C4...).

Best thing is, that it is all available tech. Plywood RC planes and gliders plus C4. I bet there is already somebody trying this in some Ukrainian cellar.

[poesel]

German UAV manufacturer Quantum-Systems is creating a separate R&D center in Ukraine and plans to hire specialists.

I guess there is currently no better place to get that kind of experience. Clever move.

 

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, OBJ said:

The WWI analogies are very appropriate if we look at the western front. What can we conclude if we look at the eastern front?

WW1 on the Eastern front never culminated into true trench warfare because neither side had enough bodies to build and man the equivalent of the continuous trench system in the West. As a result the fighting played out more like the Germans had thought it would pre war, and the Germans were better at it than the Russians. So the Germans were able to conduct several major battles of maneuver that just wrecked large parts of the Russian Army. The Russians did much the same to the Austro-Hungarians. The overall balance though swung decisively to the Germans, due not least to the Czars complete incompetence. The morale of the Russian army just broke. This of course fed back into the series of political convulsions in Russia that culminated in the the Bolshevik Revolution. Lenin came out on top in that not least by promising the army peace at any price. It took the Germans to long, and cost them them to much, but the war in the East did not come out all that differently from German pre-war planning. It is just that this success was not enough to keep the German war economy afloat as the weight of the U.S. coming in, and the grinding pressure of the blockade ground down Germany's ability to continue the war. As Dan-Frodo mentioned the peace treaty the Germans made the Russians sign made the the treaty of Versailles look mild and well adjusted. 

 

[OBJ]

Thanks Dan, that's my understanding also. In Ukraine we now have forces and fixed geography that enable a continuous front strong enough on both sides to preclude successful offensive operations.

I asked as I believe this is another circumstance that may be unique to Ukraine, at present.

[Jiggathebauce]

2 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Off topic re US border: The democrats are being handed a gift here by their republicans where they can materially change their border stance to something more reasonable (ie anything not wide open is literally facism) long before the election. The Republicans are either too stupid to wait to spring this until say mid-summer, and/or the situation at the border is that bad (it is).

As someone who DOES basically think the border not being open is close to fascist, you're patently and categorically mischaracterizing the Dems and the state of the border. As someone who has regularly traveled back and forth across it, I haven't the slightest idea what you mean. There's so much law enforcement and much of Republican policy from trump and every previous deportation  happy administration is intact. Biden could put HIMARS and land mines on the border and Republicans would ask why he won't start a special military operation in Juarez.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Jiggathebauce
More details

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.offidocs.com/public/?v=ext&pdfurl=https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/setting_transatlantic_defence_up_for_success_0.pdf

Above is the detailed plan done by the Estonian MOD about how to sort out supplying, and training Ukraine coherently. It is entirely within the capability of NATO and friends to do this. 

Below is an excellent podcast to the effect that we aren't doing that, not even close.

Quote

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/politicology/id1514968525?i=1000639254092

Ukraine Must Win

 

I recommend going thru both of them , and then contacting your elected representatives, and then contacting them again, and again, and again. 

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

As someone who DOES basically think the border not being open is close to fascist, you're patently and categorically mischaracterizing the Dems and the state of the border. As someone who has regularly traveled back and forth across it, I haven't the slightest idea what you mean. There's so much law enforcement and much of Republican policy from trump and every previous deportation  happy administration is intact. Biden could put HIMARS and land mines on the border and Republicans would ask why he won't start a special military operation in Juarez.

My one experience on the Mexican border was weird. I'm from the UK, and was travelling to Mexico for a few days for work, but landing at Tucson, Arizona and being picked up by a driver. This was 2001. Having heard all the stuff in the 90's about the Us-Mexican border and all the efforts to stop illegal crossings, I was rather surprised that we just drove down to some quiet border town, and through in to Mexico without stopping. I don't think the border post was even manned. On the way back I thing there was a guard there, but he just kind of glanced up as we drove past.

Came across a roadblock checking identities about 20 miles back inside the US, which I guess was some kind of border patrol, but I don't think they looked at my passport either ('cos I didn't look Mexican?)

Apropos of nothing in particular, but the gap between the rhetoric I was hearing and my experience amused me.

[Jiggathebauce]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

My one experience on the Mexican border was weird. I'm from the UK, and was travelling to Mexico for a few days for work, but landing at Tucson, Arizona and being picked up by a driver. This was 2001. Having heard all the stuff in the 90's about the Us-Mexican border and all the efforts to stop illegal crossings, I was rather surprised that we just drove down to some quiet border town, and through in to Mexico without stopping. I don't think the border post was even manned. On the way back I thing there was a guard there, but he just kind of glanced up as we drove past.

Came across a roadblock checking identities about 20 miles back inside the US, which I guess was some kind of border patrol, but I don't think they looked at my passport either ('cos I didn't look Mexican?)

Apropos of nothing in particular, but the gap between the rhetoric I was hearing and my experience amused me.

That's entirely out of keeping with my experience, especially Laredo, yes getting into Mexico is fairly chill but getting back into the US is a very time consuming wait where the CBP engages in security theater and treating everyone like a potential criminal, particularly if you are latin american. both sides of the border increasingly militarized during the Calderon Presidency when the Mexican government went hard against the cartels. Got to see a lot of Mexican soldiers, federal police with machine gun checkpoints and German rifles. 

 

I genuinely despise the crossing back into the US.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Jiggathebauce

[LongLeftFlank]

10 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Looks like Trump's opponents aren't giving up, and that's good news.

Bro, if you really want to drive this thread into the ditch once and for all, just keep on posting this stuff.

It's turtles all the way down, there is literally nothing you or anyone else is going to get out of pursuing this subtopic.

 

[Sojourner]

43 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Bro, if you really want to drive this thread into the ditch once and for all, just keep on posting this stuff.

Whoa, that was rather uncharitable. That post didn't veer any closer to the ditch than any of your meme posts. 
Besides, I think he may be going through a difficult phase in his life at the moment, so a little slack perhaps.

[chuckdyke]

16 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Whoa, that was rather uncharitable. That post didn't veer any closer to the ditch than any of your meme posts. 
Besides, I think he may be going through a difficult phase in his life at the moment, so a little slack perhaps.

We will be neighbours soon. We plan to move to Cebu by next month. No worries I won't be asking to play Hotseat LOL. 

[The_Capt]

10 hours ago, OBJ said:

Also I think @The_Capt's use of 'denial' was as in tactical denial, the defender denying the attacker the ability to maneuver, modern air defense denying air forces the ability to provide close air support, that usage.

I think we may be past tactical, at least for some areas.

So denial is essentially the ability to impose an intolerable cost.  It does not exert positive control over an area, it denies an opponent to establish control - a spoiler.  Denial is very good a making an area or point in a campaign undecidable.  I think in the air over Ukraine we are at operational denial, maybe even strategic. 

In this war I cannot even say that there is defence primacy as of yet.  It may be too soon.  But we can say we are seeing Denial primacy.  The air domain is mutually denied above 2000 feet. Unmanned ISR combined with artillery and precision weapons is denying ground force mass for offence.  The maritime domain has been denied as well.  The Russian Navy has been forced back by cheap land to sea missile systems.

We can see the intolerable cost whenever someone tries to go on the offensive.  Cheap and everywhere is defeating firepower and manoeuvre.  Russians were firing artillery at levels approaching WW1 last summer.  They vastly overwhelmed the UA.  Straight out of the Soviet playbook - fire to manoeuvre.  They had massive firepower overmatch…and went nowhere.  In fact they burned themselves out and got collapsed.  So in a way traditional firepower is denied.  The UA was to spread out and firing back with precision while Russian dumb massed fires were blowing up trees.

Right now there is no easy work arounds.  One cannot simply “establish air superiority” or “fires superiority”.  One has to establish denial and then a level of asymmetry.  Or better yet force an opponent into asymmetry.  

And don’t worry about Flimflam - I am pretty sure he isn’t following half of what I am talking about.  

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, poesel said:

Hmm, laying MICLICs via drone sounds like a good idea. Problem is weight. Taking above figures and converting them into sensible units ( ) gives about 7.5 kg/m of C4. Let's say 10. The R18 drone carries 5kg. So two of them may carry 1-2 m of mine clearing. That is not much.
Fixed wings might be better here. A few pages back we had that plywood AQ-400 drones that could carry 42kg over 750km. Let's just use these numbers. It's fair to assume a combo of one motored, and one glider drone could carry 100kg. That's 10+ m of MICLIC.

So 10 of these replace one M58 system (and it is scalable in length in both directions). You don't need 5t of trailer or 15t of UR-77.

Downsides are weather dependency, and it is harder to aim. But it is comparably cheap and reusable (apart from the C4...).

Best thing is, that it is all available tech. Plywood RC planes and gliders plus C4. I bet there is already somebody trying this in some Ukrainian cellar.

So explosive breaching is a thing but it is part of a breaching system, not a silver bullet.  First off it won’t do a thing against enemy ISR, artillery, ATGMs and AFVs etc.  It can blow a lane through a minefield through explosive over pressure…but, it is not 100%.  A proving vehicle has to go first through the blown breach, normally a roller tank.  Mines can be deep buried or wind up in a shadow zone.  

The safe lane still canalized forces who need cover to get across, which makes them vulnerable.  One does not need to string a bunch of explosive sections together and try to fly them over.  Just send a lead line to the far side and tow the charge across.  But this won’t solve the core problems.  The other downside to an explosive breach is the damn thing is hugely visible.  The second one gets lit the enemy knows exactly where the breach is going in.

So, yes, we can do explosive breaching with lone charges but they still need all the pre-conditions one requires for other types of breaches.  As to precision targeting of individual mines.  Great idea but one has to be able to see them all.  And then after detonation - you would need to do that all at once - you still have to prove the lane like a line breach.  The biggest danger of a minefield is that it forces vehicles to single lanes across wide open fields.  And it forces them to move slowly doing it.  Mines  may cause casualties but they are not the main killer which are all the weapons systems whose jobs got much easier because of the minefield.

[Battlefront.com]

Let's not have discussions about the US border, please.  Not relevant.  The politics surrounding Ukraine aid is borderline as it's obviously difficult to examine that without also getting into unrelated US politics and policies.

Steve

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So explosive breaching is a thing but it is part of a breaching system, not a silver bullet.  First off it won’t do a thing against enemy ISR, artillery, ATGMs and AFVs etc.  It can blow a lane through a minefield through explosive over pressure…but, it is not 100%.  A proving vehicle has to go first through the blown breach, normally a roller tank.  Mines can be deep buried or wind up in a shadow zone.  

The safe lane still canalized forces who need cover to get across, which makes them vulnerable.  One does not need to string a bunch of explosive sections together and try to fly them over.  Just send a lead line to the far side and tow the charge across.  But this won’t solve the core problems.  The other downside to an explosive breach is the damn thing is hugely visible.  The second one gets lit the enemy knows exactly where the breach is going in.

So, yes, we can do explosive breaching with lone charges but they still need all the pre-conditions one requires for other types of breaches.  As to precision targeting of individual mines.  Great idea but one has to be able to see them all.  And then after detonation - you would need to do that all at once - you still have to prove the lane like a line breach.  The biggest danger of a minefield is that it forces vehicles to single lanes across wide open fields.  And it forces them to move slowly doing it.  Mines  may cause casualties but they are not the main killer which are all the weapons systems whose jobs got much easier because of the minefield.

The goal of a better method to lay MICLIC type charges is to get the cost down, and therefore the availability of the equipment up, to the point that many more lanes could be created. So instead attempting two or three lanes, and those only at the place you are actually attacking, you could do six lanes in multiple places, and keep the other side guessing that much longer.

[Kinophile]

@Chibot Mk IX, interesting quote.

There's an odd little note in there, namely:

Quote

The Ukrainian forces inserted many yellow flags in front of their positions, so I took a chance, assuming it was a guide rather than a minefield marker.

A guide? To whom? Is he misreading something? Why on earth would anyone place flags in front of their lines? Doing so is dangerous, it highlights your lines (duh) and if you're UKR then you already know where your lines are and you certainly don't want to advertise to RUS.

Odd.

[dan/california]

56 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Chibot Mk IX, interesting quote.

There's an odd little note in there, namely:

A guide? To whom? Is he misreading something? Why on earth would anyone place flags in front of their lines? Doing so is dangerous, it highlights your lines (duh) and if you're UKR then you already know where your lines are and you certainly don't want to advertise to RUS.

Odd.

Totally possible this is a mistake in what I suspect was a multi language translation. If it is true though I strongly suspect it is the Ukrainians trying very hard not to have a friendly fire problem when the lines are moving back and forth by the hour. They want to be very sure their own drones know not to shell them.

[Letter from Prague]

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/18nu2iq/destruction_of_a_russian_mlrs_apparently_a_tos1a/

TOS going boom with some interesting commentary.

[Offshoot]

26 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/18nu2iq/destruction_of_a_russian_mlrs_apparently_a_tos1a/

TOS going boom with some interesting commentary.

The AA guys were probably relieved it wasn't them, until they got back and were blamed for not shooting down the drone.

Wiki lists Russia as having ~45 TOS-1As  and as of late November there were reportedly 18 verified losses. Adding in captured ones, losses since then and possible unverified losses, Russia could have lost around half of what they originally had.

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Offshoot

[Zeleban]

It looks like a battery of Patriots has arrived from Germany. Three Su-34s shot down today in the Kherson region

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

It looks like a battery of Patriots has arrived from Germany.

It looks like at last some of "big chiefs" in AD Command has took responisibilities for risk and ordered to move Patriot close to frontline. Reportedly there is too bad weather for Lancets and Orlans now in that area, so moving to positions and deployment weren't spotted by enemy.

All Su-34 were shot down in Kalanchak area (57 km SE from Krynky), if this eyewitness is writing a true

Kalanchak. About 30 minutes ago ours shot down 3 "sushkas". We have seen this with own eyes. We need a festive dinner

First reaction of Russian TGs

Voyevoda: Do not trust khokhol information about 6 "200th" crew members. This is not a true

Fighterbomber: Yes, according to my information we have a combat loss. The reasons are bing clarified

Since some time:

Kiril Fyodorov: Everything has already been found. And not one.

Fighterbomber: Everybody has already been taken. Live and dead. May a soil be as a sky for them.... Preliminary this was Patriot work 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

The goal of a better method to lay MICLIC type charges is to get the cost down, and therefore the availability of the equipment up, to the point that many more lanes could be created. So instead attempting two or three lanes, and those only at the place you are actually attacking, you could do six lanes in multiple places, and keep the other side guessing that much longer.

I am not sure the current rocket laying system is a problem.  The problem seems to be minefield depth.  MICLIC are only about 100m long and RA minefields are around 500m.  Brits have a system 200m:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mine-clearing_line_charge

And of course they have developed mine fuses to counter the effects.

Multiple lanes are of course a good idea but that is a lot of systems as there are multiple minefield belts.  So again, part of an overall larger system and operation, not a silver bullet.  

Warfare rarely gives a silver bullet solution.  To break trench warfare of WW1 forces needed armor/mech, AirPower, C2 and logistics.  To break manoeuvre warfare it looks like C4ISR, unmanned and PGM (meaning everything from artillery to ATGMs to AD) have all conspired together.

To break the current state of things it is going to take another complex system.  Key components of which are Force Projection, Force protection, Firepower, C4ISR and Force sustainment.  However the technologies and doctrine to combine some of these successfully may not exist yet.

[Haiduk]

I wonder where these 1000 vehciles? Or they meant 1000th of total produced Senator was delivered to Ukraine?

Canadian armored vehicle manufacturer Roshel recently commemorated a significant milestone, celebrating the delivery of the 1,000th Senator armored vehicle to the Ukrainian military in an official ceremony.

https://defence-blog.com/roshel-delivers-1000th-senator-armored-vehicle-to-ukraine/

Edited December 22, 2023 by Haiduk