How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/18nu2iq/destruction_of_a_russian_mlrs_apparently_a_tos1a/

TOS going boom with some interesting commentary.

Who can't see on Reddit, here is short version from Twitter. "Magyar" says this was third TOS-1A, destroyed in Krynky area since UKR troops landed on left bank. 

Three TOS-1A this is full set of heavy flamethrowers company of CBRN regiment - the army level unit.

 

[The_Capt]

I rarely disagree with ISW but on this I do:

“ISW has assessed that the collapse of Western aid would likely lead to the eventual collapse of Ukraine’s ability to hold off the Russian military and that the current positional war in Ukraine is not a stable stalemate because the current instable balance could readily be tipped in either direction by decisions made in the West.[5] Continued Western security assistance that empowers Ukrainian forces to repel ongoing and future Russian offensive efforts and to liberate more Ukrainian territory is the only course of action at this time that can make the Russian failure to achieve Putin’s maximalist objectives in Ukraine permanent.”

We can push weapons, ammo and money into Ukraine.  Ukraine could take back every lost inch of territory.  And it is not a permanent solution.  The permanent solution is to 1) remove Russian political will to achieve those maximalist objectives and 2) pull Ukraine into a collective defence mechanism that makes attaining Russian objectives prohibitive.

I am not sure how to do #1 but have some ideas on #2.

[Beleg85]

Just a curiosity: somebody already made a simulator  of FPV drone, set in current war. From keyboard straight into trenches...

https://store.steampowered.com/app/2707940/FPV_Kamikaze_Drone/

Meanwhile, Ukraine MoD announced ambitious plan to increase https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-announces-ambitious-plan-to-produce-1million-fpv-drones/  FPV drone production up to 1 mln a year:

 

[cesmonkey]

56 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It looks like at last some of "big chiefs" in AD Command has took responisibilities for risk and ordered to move Patriot close to frontline. Reportedly there is too bad weather for Lancets and Orlans now in that area, so moving to positions and deployment weren't spotted by enemy.

All Su-34 were shot down in Kalanchak area (57 km SE from Krynky), if this eyewitness is writing a true

Kalanchak. About 30 minutes ago ours shot down 3 "sushkas". We have seen this with own eyes. We need a festive dinner

First reaction of Russian TGs

Voyevoda: Do not trust khokhol information about 6 "200th" crew members. This is not a true

Fighterbomber: Yes, according to my information we have a combat loss. The reasons are bing clarified

Since some time:

Kiril Fyodorov: Everything has already been found. And not one.

Fighterbomber: Everybody has already been taken. Live and dead. May a soil be as a sky for them.... Preliminary this was Patriot work 

I wonder if a couple of Gephards, along with decent low-level radar coverage would be enough to protect a forward-deployed Patriot battery from the threat of small drones?

You would still need to keep it out range of artillery fire, of course.

[cesmonkey]

 

[kimbosbread]

Fantastic news about the SU-34 shootdowns and pushing a patriot battery forward. Russia supposedly had 130 or so in February 22, and has lost 21 and now 3 more. Any guesses of how many of the remaining airframes are flightworthy at any given time?

[Zeleban]

15 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Fantastic news about the SU-34 shootdowns and pushing a patriot battery forward. Russia supposedly had 130 or so in February 22, and has lost 21 and now 3 more. Any guesses of how many of the remaining airframes are flightworthy at any given time?

 

I think that the number of Russian Su-34s has not decreased, given the new aircraft that Russia has produced over these 2 years. Russia does not experience any particular difficulties with spare parts for the Su-34. This allows not only to repair old aircraft of this type, but also to produce new ones

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

I think that the number of Russian Su-34s has not decreased, given the new aircraft that Russia has produced over these 2 years. Russia does not experience any particular difficulties with spare parts for the Su-34. This allows not only to repair old aircraft of this type, but also to produce new ones

Ok this has to stop.  Look dude, I know you are squarely in the “all is lost” camp but there is a point where this becomes disinformation.

https://wavellroom.com/2023/02/17/russian-combat-aircraft-sanctions/

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

You state things as fact with zero proof or citations to back it up.  You can see this?  You see how your world view is skewing everything?

So best estimates (and pony up some credible info if you have it) is that Russia managed to produce 22 military aircraft in 2022.  Assuming they did the same in 23 (and that is a leap) then they are at about 44 aircraft produced.  They lost over twice that number in this war…that we can see and confirm.  The reality is likely higher.

You get a hall pass because of the situation you are in.  But you need to back up your “facts” with actual facts.  “I heard it at the grocery store” has limited traction.  Do you have some secret access to Russian aircraft production scheduling?  If so, post it!  
 

[Zeleban]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok this has to stop.  Look dude, I know you are squarely in the “all is lost” camp but there is a point where this becomes disinformation.

https://wavellroom.com/2023/02/17/russian-combat-aircraft-sanctions/

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

You state things as fact with zero proof or citations to back it up.  You can see this?  You see how your world view is skewing everything?

So best estimates (and pony up some credible info if you have it) is that Russia managed to produce 22 military aircraft in 2022.  Assuming they did the same in 23 (and that is a leap) then they are at about 44 aircraft produced.  They lost over twice that number in this war…that we can see and confirm.  The reality is likely higher.

You get a hall pass because of the situation you are in.  But you need to back up your “facts” with actual facts.  “I heard it at the grocery store” has limited traction.  Do you have some secret access to Russian aircraft production scheduling?  If so, post it!  
 

 

I don’t understand, why are you so dissatisfied with my post? kimbosbread pointed out that Russia has lost 20 Su-34s in two years. According to the table located on the website that you indicated in your post, Russia produced 10 Su-34s in 2022. And if we assume that in 2023 they produced the same amount (and I am sure that they were able to increase production), then it turns out that in two years they produced 20 Su-34s. That is, this completely coincides with my post that the number of Su-34s in the Russian Air Force has not decreased.

[riptides]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

.....

We can push weapons, ammo and money into Ukraine.  Ukraine could take back every lost inch of territory.  And it is not a permanent solution.  The permanent solution is to 1) remove Russian political will to achieve those maximalist objectives and 2) pull Ukraine into a collective defence mechanism that makes attaining Russian objectives prohibitive.

I am not sure how to do #1 but have some ideas on #2.

Address number one in a strategic sense:

 

The west will not do business with Russia until Putin is removed from power and the territorial integrity of Ukraine has been restored.

On the Putin issue, there can be no compromise.

Defer Ukraine territory restoration to the people of Ukraine themselves.

No one has said it yet, it needs to be said.

[The_Capt]

31 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

I don’t understand, why are you so dissatisfied with my post? kimbosbread pointed out that Russia has lost 20 Su-34s in two years. According to the table located on the website that you indicated in your post, Russia produced 10 Su-34s in 2022. And if we assume that in 2023 they produced the same amount (and I am sure that they were able to increase production), then it turns out that in two years they produced 20 Su-34s. That is, this completely coincides with my post that the number of Su-34s in the Russian Air Force has not decreased.

Sure, if all Russia was using and producing were SU-34s.  And how on earth do you have any proof at all “that they were able to increase production”?  

My problem with your post is that it is skewing facts and ignoring context.  This is the hallmark of an agenda, not objective analysis.  You are pushing and promoting a point.  You are cherry picking information out of larger context - when you cite information at all - in order to shore it up.  Russia is losing nearly twice as many A/C as it can manufacture annually.   I am sure if this were the facts about the Ukrainian airforce you would be shouting from the rooftops “Ukrainian Airforce is losing!!”  But when it is Russia - “Russia is unstoppable and building more aircraft than it loses”.  

My problem with your post(s) is that they are biases and promoting to the point of outright mis/dis information.  I don’t know what your angle is and frankly am past caring.  What needs to stop is you coming here, dropping “informed opinion” like it is gospel.  Do some leg work.  It is called Google…use it and back up your positions.  The Russian Airforce is in serious trouble.  Why?  Because they have much larger problems than Ukraine.  Russia has a big @ss sky to try and control.  They are worried about NATO (among other things).  Losing that much hardware and not being able to replace it is not a good news story for them.  In fact it is a strategic indicator that, shockingly, Russia is not getting better as a result of this war…they are getting worse.

Edit: https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/08/the-uncounted-losses-to-russias-air-force.html

Edited December 22, 2023 by The_Capt

[Zeleban]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

do you have any proof at all “that they were able to increase production”?

Do you need reports from the Russian military industry, or an interview with the Russian Minister of Aviation Industry with the exact number of aircraft produced by type? The fact that Russia is increasing ALL types of weapons is obvious, since unlike Western countries, Russia perfectly understands that it is in a state of war and if it does not increase the production of weapons, it will lose. Russia has no problems with either money or equipment for aircraft production.

I do not consider it necessary to prove anything to anyone on this forum, since we are not in a courtroom, you are not a judge and the essence of anyone does not depend on your opinion

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Do you need reports from the Russian military industry, or an interview with the Russian Minister of Aviation Industry with the exact number of aircraft produced by type? The fact that Russia is increasing ALL types of weapons is obvious, since unlike Western countries, Russia perfectly understands that it is in a state of war and if it does not increase the production of weapons, it will lose. Russia has no problems with either money or equipment for aircraft production.

I do not consider it necessary to prove anything to anyone on this forum, since we are not in a courtroom, you are not a judge and the essence of anyone does not depend on your opinion

If you don’t think it necessary to prove anything then why bother to post at all and why should anyone bother with your opinion? Why not just take it to Reddit or Twitter and save everyone the trouble? 

[Zeleban]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

If you don’t think it necessary to prove anything then why bother to post at all and why should anyone bother with your opinion? Why not just take it to Reddit or Twitter and save everyone the trouble? 

Because this is a forum. A forum is a place where people with different opinions exchange these opinions, without the need to prove anything to anyone. Obviously, I write my thoughts here and share my opinions, just like you.

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Because this is a forum. A forum is a place where people with different opinions exchange these opinions, without the need to prove anything to anyone. Obviously, I write my thoughts here and share my opinions, just like you.

Sure, it's a forum. But what makes it different is that it boasts very knowledgeable posters who often show their work to try and convince with fact and logical argument. I obviously don't and wouldn't control what you post but it's worth considering what you think you are accomplishing in this sort of place just spouting off on subjects in which your knowledge is clearly lacking.  

[Zeleban]

15 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I obviously don't and wouldn't control what you post but it's worth considering what you think you are accomplishing in this sort of place just spouting off on subjects in which your knowledge is clearly lacking.  

Unfortunately, I am not without shortcomings. In any case, I admit that your knowledge of the war in Ukraine is much better than mine.

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, Zeleban said:

Unfortunately, I am not without shortcomings. In any case, I admit that your knowledge of the war in Ukraine is much better than mine.

That’s the point. I don’t debate with folks on here about things I don’t know and I actually come here to benefit from those who do. Worth trying…

[Zeleban]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

That’s the point. I don’t debate with folks on here about things I don’t know and I actually come here to benefit from those who do. Worth trying…

 

And. to kick those who talk about things about which he knows nothing, right?

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Unfortunately, I am not without shortcomings. In any case, I admit that your knowledge of the war in Ukraine is much better than mine.

The thing is, the way you argue your opinions it does seem that someone thousands of miles away from the combat zone does have better knowledge of this war than you. 

You presented an OPINION that you did not back up with fact.  Facts were presented to challenge your opinion.  Now you are engaging in personal attacks instead of defending your opinion with facts.

Unfortunately this is not the first time I have to remind you that you are arguing like the pro-Russians who have been banned from this Forum.  Please argue opinions with facts or do not argue at all.

Steve

[Sojourner]

31 minutes ago, billbindc said:

why should anyone bother with your opinion?

Because he's there, and tens of thousands of people are actively trying to kill him and are devastating his homeland.

One of the things I value most in this forum is the opportunity to gain diverse insights and opinions.

And after all, he did preface his post with "I think". If someone says something that can be proved wrong, correct it, but play the ball, not the man

[Zeleban]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

The thing is, the way you argue your opinions it does seem that someone thousands of miles away from the combat zone does have better knowledge of this war than you. 

You presented an OPINION that you did not back up with fact.  Facts were presented to challenge your opinion.  Now you are engaging in personal attacks instead of defending your opinion with facts.

Unfortunately this is not the first time I have to remind you that you are arguing like the pro-Russians who have been banned from this Forum.  Please argue opinions with facts or do not argue at all.

Steve

Yes, but the facts that were provided by my opponent directly indicated that I was right. 

Why provide any additional facts?

[JonS]

28 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

play the ball, not the man

And what to do when their behaviour *is* the ball?

I blocked Z a year or so ago when I realised that engaging with them was pointless and disruptive. I can see from the quotes in other folk's posts that nothing has changed.

I get that "they're THERE, man", but that only goes so far. And it's no excuse for outright bull****.

Edited December 22, 2023 by JonS

[Zeleban]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

And what to do when their behaviour *is* the ball?

I blocked Z a year or so ago when I realised that engaging with them was pointless and disruptive. I can see from the quotes in other folks posts that nothing has changed.

I get that "they're THERE, man", but that only goes so far. And it's no excuse for outright bull****.

At least Steve didn't threaten to ban me last year. Apparently then everything was in order with my argument 

[billbindc]

21 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Because he's there, and tens of thousands of people are actively trying to kill him and are devastating his homeland.

One of the things I value most in this forum is the opportunity to gain diverse insights and opinions.

And after all, he did preface his post with "I think". If someone says something that can be proved wrong, correct it, but play the ball, not the man

His lived experience there and what that means is something that I would be quite interested to hear. Leaving his defeatist perspective aside, that experience does not, imho, confer moral authority from critique especially when the attitude is "why do I need to prove anything?" when discussing things like US political processes, Russian jet production, etc.

Put another way, if he won't play that ball himself than how can we? 

[Zeleban]

26 minutes ago, billbindc said:

His lived experience there and what that means is something that I would be quite interested to hear. Leaving his defeatist perspective aside, that experience does not, imho, confer moral authority from critique especially when the attitude is "why do I need to prove anything?" when discussing things like US political processes, Russian jet production, etc.

Put another way, if he won't play that ball himself than how can we? 

 

Oh my god! the vast majority of users on this forum write posts without any evidence or argument. No one demands any facts or evidence from them, but only if it is good news (Russians are stupid, Russian technology sucks, Russians are losing, we are not risking anything). As soon as bad news or unpopular thoughts appear, demands for evidence and arguments immediately arise

Edited December 22, 2023 by Zeleban