How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

For Asia, maybe.  So “meh China”, except of course when we want to discuss security?  So which is it?  China is just another upstart power with no real attributes.  Or China rise is a clear and present threat to western way of life and we need to invest trillions in defence in order to thwart them.  You can see how the narrative appears muddled.  Also, we didn’t take Japan seriously and it took an A-bomb to bring them down…so maybe we should be a little more respectful this time?

No I don't think it is mutually exclusive to say I don't think China has some super secret squirrel long term strategic view that out does our short sightedness while also believing that China does have an expansionist view based on its need to acquire a lot more resources to support its economic growth.

China is a country with almost 1.5 billion people and a view that it is a world power that wants to be the #1 world power.  Their strategy to get there seems more reminiscent of USAID programs in LatAm in the 50s and 60s.  We'll lend you money to buy products from us that are overpriced so get caught in a cycle of debt and we are cashing in on both ends.  It is a strategy that is guaranteed to build resentment and eventually default.

Game of Loans: How China Bought Hambantota (csis.org)

I don't think anyone here is gonna accuse Putin of being some brilliant strategist.  However I also think no one here would feel he does not represent an existential threat to Ukraine.

 

Regarding Japan, it may be a good case study for understanding how misunderstandings and miscommunication can really mess things up.  This has been on my "to read" list for a while.  The Imperial Cruise: A Secret History of Empire and War by James D. Bradley | Goodreads

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

What you notice though is that from the anti-Ukraine comments, the people tend to write with strange quirks. Like spell a word consistently wrong (Czech pronounces i and y the same but we have stringent rules on when to write which, that they beat into you over 9 years or elementary school) or use subtly different word in a context that kind of makes sense but doesn't sound quite right, or use the wrong grammatical case (like imagine mixing up "American dude" and "dude of America" in English).

I discussed this with a friend who is a linguist specializing in Slavic languages, and we were able to trace a lot of the quirks to features of Russian language, pointing to them being a native Russian speaker.

You don't see those quirks with people who are pro-Ukraine, of course.

Yup, and I'm sure a lot of Poles reading their message boards would notice the same thing being done to their language.  Which, for what it's worth, is stupidly complicated to a non-native speaker   It's pretty easy to spot this sort of stuff on US based comments sections.

The other reason to not pay any attention to social media comments is you don't know where they are really coming from.  For example, comments on local newspapers could be from anywhere in the world.  Even if the English is perfect and the arguments are 100% sound, having someone from an unknown location voicing an opinion of a local issue doesn't give you a good idea what local people think

Generally speaking, social media postings are pointless to look at to gauge opinions.  They can, however, help provide insight into whatever you're looking at.  Sometimes.  On Twitter/X I often see comments pointing to small details in a video I might have missed or someone has already proven something to be a fake (and cites sources).  So there is some value in some of the comments.

Steve

[poesel]

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

For Asia, maybe.  So “meh China”, except of course when we want to discuss security?  So which is it?  China is just another upstart power with no real attributes.  Or China rise is a clear and present threat to western way of life and we need to invest trillions in defence in order to thwart them. 

China was the worlds superpower from about 500 (when they took over from the Romans) to about 1750 where they lost it to England. The main reason they lost the spot was self-inflicted isolation. After 250 years of further 'mismanagement' they are a superpower again (not 'the', but 'a').

By its sheer size and cultural homogeneity, China is destined to be a superpower. That it was not during our lifetime is a historical aberration. 

As to who is threatening whoms way of life, I would guess it is rather the West that is threatening China. Every Chinese I know (all of them living in China) would rather live in a western style China than in the current one, if something like that would be possible. They know it isn't so they are not speaking of that (loud).

[LongLeftFlank]

Wow, this thread has really derailed lately into a generalised college dorm bull session on world affairs. A lot of opinionating and emoting by the same 15 regulars. Only @Harmon Rabb is trying to post anything remotely factual any more.

...Actually, the Twittersphere in general seems much the same. A lot of scolding and 'on message' broken record slogans, and What Now Must We Do emoting. Fragments of anecdata only,  and analysis (body counts, wreck counts) seem stale and repetitive. Just marching in place, yet things are changing.

 

1. What the hell *is* happening in Poland? I'd love to hear from our Polish comrades who seem strangely silent of late: @Maciej Zwolinski, @Beleg85?

What's the beef with the truckers? Are they just looking for a payoff, or do they actually want to hobble Ukraine's war effort?  Why?

 

2.

@Haiduk, how are things in Kyiv?  Are Zeleban's views on fatigue and disillusionment on point? (I for one don't doubt his sincerity or his goodwill, nor do I believe he's parroting Russian troll farms)

@kraze what are people saying in your corner of the Austro-Hungarian empire?

Angry denunciations of betrayals and foot-dragging by the West aside -- real or imagined -- what are you guys seeing or hearing about going downhill there?

I'm going to suspend posting for a bit myself, since I have far more questions than answers on the macro situation, and no one here seems much interested in the battlefield itself these days.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I'm going to suspend posting for a bit myself, since I have far more questions than answers on the macro situation, and no one here seems much interested in the battlefield itself these days.

That is because nothing is really happening!  Slow grinding misery on both sides.  Speaking for myself, one can only watch so much war porn.  Discussions on larger issues is the break (and for the record I have quite a few external citations in my posts).

Beyond Ukrainian Doom-Gloom, we are in a pretty static situation with respect to operational-tactical situation on the ground….so we talk political and strategic.  I would love to go one higher and talk theory but let’s not risk using diagrams and PowerPoints again based on the reaction last time.

Edited December 4, 2023 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

China was the worlds superpower from about 500 (when they took over from the Romans) to about 1750 where they lost it to England. The main reason they lost the spot was self-inflicted isolation. After 250 years of further 'mismanagement' they are a superpower again (not 'the', but 'a').

By its sheer size and cultural homogeneity, China is destined to be a superpower. That it was not during our lifetime is a historical aberration. 

As to who is threatening whoms way of life, I would guess it is rather the West that is threatening China. Every Chinese I know (all of them living in China) would rather live in a western style China than in the current one, if something like that would be possible. They know it isn't so they are not speaking of that (loud).

I have often wondered if China was trying to figure out how to achieve regional dominance and stability without having to be #1.  And now has come to the realization that is impossible?  The system we in the west built essentially will force them towards top slot to grab the pen on a new world order.  We definitely do not seem in the mood for negotiations.

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, sburke said:

No I don't think it is mutually exclusive to say I don't think China has some super secret squirrel long term strategic view that out does our short sightedness while also believing that China does have an expansionist view based on its need to acquire a lot more resources to support its economic growth.

Well the problem here is that if they do have a long view (doesn’t have to be ‘secret squirrel’) then 1) a short term war is less likely because they are playing a clever long game and we are getting all hot and bothered for nothing - or conversely, 2) if one buys into Glass Dragon, they can see their imminent collapse and will be forced to move by 2027.

If they are simply like the rest of us, A) they are emotional and shortsighted and will make a Putin-esque mistake.  Or B they do not see their looming crisis and will sit back for awhile because full on war does not make a lot of short term sense.

Out of that menu a lot of people are going with 2-A, which does not make a whole lot of logical sense because it is drawing a worst case out of opposing frameworks.  I argue that is seeing what we fear and not objective analysis.  

The other problem is that creating deterrence is not a passive exercise.  From the other side it looks a lot like build up and aggression.  If China has a long term view we might be ok because they will let us spend a position over time but play the longer game.  If they are emotional and short-sighted, they may see the wrong signals and panic.

If I have one singular point it is that the war in Ukraine has us all in a pretty binary mood, however, a more nuanced and complex level of thinking will be required with respect to China, particularly once this war is over.

[LongLeftFlank]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is because nothing is really happening!  Slow grinding misery on both sides.

Beyond Ukrainian Doom-Gloom, we are in a pretty static situation with respect to operational-tactical situation on the ground.

 

 

I understand your response, many thanks, and it was probably more polite than my post deserved.

...But, you don't have a queasy feeling that the 'shelf life' of a Ukrainian infantryman has substantially shortened since summer (a la 1915), mainly cuz Ivan is closing the 'drone gap' (or C4ISR gap?), and there's no credible counter in sight yet, and that word of that awful reality is spreading, and so nobody is in a hurry to step up and stick their own scrota in the meatgrinder, possibly for a period of years?

(can I possibly beg this question any harder?)

[Carolus]

I don't know sure if Pravda ist considered a reputable source in Ukraine, so cavears apply.

But if there is something to this, it sounds concerning. 

 

 

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I understand your response, many thanks, and it was probably more polite than my post deserved.

...But, you don't have a queasy feeling that the 'shelf life' of a Ukrainian infantryman has substantially shortened since summer (a la 1915), mainly cuz Ivan is closing the 'drone gap' (or C4ISR gap?), and there's no credible counter in sight yet, and that word of that awful reality is spreading, and so nobody is in a hurry to step up and stick their own scrota in the meatgrinder, possibly for a period of years?

(can I possibly beg this question any harder?)

Well I suspect that “yes” the RA have gotten a better grip on C4ISR.  I am not sure that has translated into tactical offensive effects - eg we have not seen stream after stream of UA soldiers getting chased around trees yet and Russia would be posting that with glee.  So we have what both the Ukrainian CHOD and president have admitted - a somewhat static tactical/operational battlefield.  No one appears to have figured out how to break this deadlock and I am not sure we can in a short term as the technology really does not exist en masse yet.

As to Ukrainian Will to fight versus Russian Will, well we have seen pages on this subject.  The loudest local voice has declared that Ukraine is doomed and the war is lost.  Other opinions differ.  Personally, I would need to see some evidence beyond a lone Ukrainian poster who seems intent to pick all the worst-case data points and play chicken with Steve’s banning policy.

The rest of us are murmuring and debating the state of the world…as old men often do.  

[Grossman]

• Maj Gen Vladimir Zavadsky, the deputy commander of Russia’s 14th Army Corps, has been confirmed killed in Ukraine, said the governor of Russia’s Voronezh region, Alexander Gusev. He said Zavadsky had died “at a combat post in the special operation zone”, but further details have not been released. Source: UK Guardian

[hcrof]

Looks like the polish border is unblocking. Still a way to go but the polish government appears to be making a sincere effort to resolve the crisis.

 

 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1. What the hell *is* happening in Poland? I'd love to hear from our Polish comrades who seem strangely silent of late: @Maciej Zwolinski, @Beleg85?

What's the beef with the truckers? Are they just looking for a payoff, or do they actually want to hobble Ukraine's war effort?  Why?

Why "strangely" silent? I alone twice descibed the situation in more detail, page 3050 if you missed it and several pages before. I just came back from mountains mate and it's monday; we have RL too. And now 8-page backlog.

They are for pay-offs of sort but (as they claim) together with unions from several other states are ruined by unfair competition by Ukrainian transport companies. They demand bringing back the previous quotas on transport, moratory on which was extended lately by EU Comission and stop to corruption practices along the border, like (they claim) unfair e-registration system on other side and using aid/military channels to transport private business from and to UA.

A complicated business matter, most people here strongly condemn form of protest (curiously, far-right ONR send demand to stop it) but we are in a power limbo for a week, don't have functional government that would take decisions of such weight, up to circa 11th December, when new should be sworn in. Today is some meeting in Brussels in that matter so perhaps some decisions to alleviate situation will be made. But yeah, I hope new gevernment will soon scrutinize connections of several members of far right Confederacy more closely now. Postulates are partly fair and movement seems grassroot and multi-national, but form and timing for interregnum period here is perfect from Moscow  point of view.

 

Quite interesting article regarding Russian FPV drone production capacities, from one opposition outlet:

https://www-agents-media.translate.goog/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true

Edited December 4, 2023 by Beleg85

[cesmonkey]

A not-to-happy Ukrainian soldier involved in the Dnipro attritional fight:

 

[cesmonkey]

Another BBC story. This one  about a former British sniper that died in Ukraine:

 

[Bearstronaut]

4 hours ago, poesel said:

China was the worlds superpower from about 500 (when they took over from the Romans) to about 1750 where they lost it to England. The main reason they lost the spot was self-inflicted isolation. After 250 years of further 'mismanagement' they are a superpower again (not 'the', but 'a').

By its sheer size and cultural homogeneity, China is destined to be a superpower. That it was not during our lifetime is a historical aberration. 

As to who is threatening whoms way of life, I would guess it is rather the West that is threatening China. Every Chinese I know (all of them living in China) would rather live in a western style China than in the current one, if something like that would be possible. They know it isn't so they are not speaking of that (loud).

Umm, what? What about the early Muslim Caliphates? The Mongols? The Ottoman Empire? The Spanish Empire? All projected more power than the insular Han Chinese and the Mongols even conquered China.

[The_Capt]

26 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

A not-to-happy Ukrainian soldier involved in the Dnipro attritional fight:

 

In conditions like these troop rotations become absolutely key.  In WW1 some troops would only spend about a week forward and then be rotated back to secondary and reserve trench systems.  

https://www.warmuseum.ca/firstworldwar/history/life-at-the-front/behind-the-front-lines/#:~:text=Soldiers rotated into and out,%2C finally%2C the reserve trenches.

And there rotations away from trenches to rear areas varied but a 50-50% spilt seemed to be normal - basically a month on followed by a month off.  So in an attritional battle an ability to regularly rotate is key.  For that you need depth of offsets.

[danfrodo]

some war stuff about the RU losses around Andiivka.  A summary of things we already know but some nice charts & such.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/3/2209226/-Ukraine-Update-Why-a-lack-of-armored-vehicles-is-stalling-Russia-s-infantry-assault?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_8&pm_medium=web

 

[poesel]

How to prepare an artillery position in frozen ground (video from last year):

and what happens if you don't:

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

34 minutes ago, poesel said:

How to prepare an artillery position in frozen ground (video from last year):

and what happens if you don't:

 

 

A very familiar problem for Finnish artillery that is mostly towed.

We have special tools and explosives that are used to create the anchoring points for the gun. Fast enough to be comparable to doing it in the summer.

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

That is because nothing is really happening!  Slow grinding misery on both sides.  Speaking for myself, one can only watch so much war porn.  Discussions on larger issues is the break (and for the record I have quite a few external citations in my posts).

Beyond Ukrainian Doom-Gloom, we are in a pretty static situation with respect to operational-tactical situation on the ground….so we talk political and strategic.  I would love to go one higher and talk theory but let’s not risk using diagrams and PowerPoints again based on the reaction last time.

Capt. if you want to talk we want to listen!

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well the problem here is that if they do have a long view (doesn’t have to be ‘secret squirrel’) then 1) a short term war is less likely because they are playing a clever long game and we are getting all hot and bothered for nothing - or conversely, 2) if one buys into Glass Dragon, they can see their imminent collapse and will be forced to move by 2027.

If they are simply like the rest of us, A) they are emotional and shortsighted and will make a Putin-esque mistake.  Or B they do not see their looming crisis and will sit back for awhile because full on war does not make a lot of short term sense.

Out of that menu a lot of people are going with 2-A, which does not make a whole lot of logical sense because it is drawing a worst case out of opposing frameworks.  I argue that is seeing what we fear and not objective analysis.  

The other problem is that creating deterrence is not a passive exercise.  From the other side it looks a lot like build up and aggression.  If China has a long term view we might be ok because they will let us spend a position over time but play the longer game.  If they are emotional and short-sighted, they may see the wrong signals and panic.

If I have one singular point it is that the war in Ukraine has us all in a pretty binary mood, however, a more nuanced and complex level of thinking will be required with respect to China, particularly once this war is over.

The scariest similarity between Russia and China is that they have both devolved to what is effectively one man rule. The war in Ukraine happened because Putin wanted it too, full stop. There was no critical forcing element in the Russian system at large, indeed all available reports indicate that almost everyone IN RUSSIA thought it was a bad idea. That was the single biggest contradictory element in the pre-war intelligence. 

Unfortunately, to extent I can determine from a couch in Seattle with no access to classified information , the situation in Chine is unpleasantly similar. Xi has become a more or less absolute autocrat, and if he decides to invade Taiwan there is no one in the Chinese system to tell him he can't. To put it mildly that increases unpredictability of the situation immensely. 

It must be pointed out that this is considerably different form the Soviet leadership after Stalin, The Central Committee had more or less absolute power, but it WAS a committee. This was also true of Chine for essentially all of the period between Mao, and Xi, and Mao just did not have the capacity to do all that much outside of China's borders. The essentially one man rule in both countries is a bad thing that just makes the whole world vastly less stable.

Edited December 4, 2023 by dan/california

[sburke]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Beyond Ukrainian Doom-Gloom, we are in a pretty static situation with respect to operational-tactical situation on the ground….so we talk political and strategic.  I would love to go one higher and talk theory but let’s not risk using diagrams and PowerPoints again based on the reaction last time.

If you put a power point on here you are going on my ignore list!  As a former McKinsey employee, I endorse this message.

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

How to prepare an artillery position in frozen ground (video from last year):

and what happens if you don't:

 

 

Does it protect from counter-battery fire if it slides far enough?

...

Anyway, any expectations of anything changing due to weather? How well do minefields work when frozen? Can vehicles cross rivers now? Do drones work worse in the cold? 

Of course the currently spicier part of Ukraine is in the south and that one isn't frozen because the temperatures are more stable near the sea.

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Does it protect from counter-battery fire if it slides far enough?

actually LOL'd at this, well done

[JonS]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

How to prepare an artillery position in frozen ground (video from last year):

Speaking of ... I havent heard much about the 777 recently. Are they still in use?